Temp’s Survival 24

[temptation]

Only remaining teams eligible.

1. Hamilton Southeastern 
2. Cathedral
3. Center Grove
4. Roncalli
5. East Central
6. Carroll (Fort Wayne)
7. Fort Wayne Snider
8. Whiteland
9. Bishop Chatard
10. West Lafayette 
11. New Prairie
12. Kokomo 
13. Indianapolis Lutheran
14. Evansville Mater Dei
15. Castle
16. Andrean
17. Lawrenceburg 
18. Valparaiso
19. Fort Wayne Luers
20. Linton-Stockton
21. Adams Central
22. North Judson
23. Monrovia
24. North Decatur

[Komets2727]

3 hours ago, temptation said:

Only remaining teams eligible.

1. Hamilton Southeastern 
2. Cathedral
3. Center Grove
4. Roncalli
5. East Central
6. Carroll (Fort Wayne)
7. Fort Wayne Snider
8. Whiteland
9. Bishop Chatard
10. West Lafayette 
11. New Prairie
12. Kokomo 
13. Indianapolis Lutheran
14. Evansville Mater Dei
15. Castle
16. Andrean
17. Lawrenceburg 
18. Valparaiso
19. Fort Wayne Luers
20. Linton-Stockton
21. Adams Central
22. North Judson
23. Monrovia
24. North Decatur

Lutheran at 13 and Adams Central 21? Come on, when those 2 teams play in the title game it literally could go either way and 8 spots apart…

[Spitting Llamas]

Linton Stockton at 20 surprises me a little, but I'm not sure where I would put them either. 

[temptation]

12 hours ago, Komets2727 said:

Lutheran at 13 and Adams Central 21? Come on, when those 2 teams play in the title game it literally could go either way and 8 spots apart…

I like Lutheran by two scores.

[BTF]

1 hour ago, temptation said:

I like Lutheran by two scores.

You really think Lutheran could beat Valpo?

[Tippy]

33 minutes ago, BTF said:

You really think Lutheran could beat Valpo?

I think Lutheran could beat Valpo.  I know Lafayette Jeff and West Lafayette could beat Valpo.

[Komets2727]

3 hours ago, temptation said:

I like Lutheran by two scores.

Good luck with that

[BTF]

1 hour ago, Tippy said:

I think Lutheran could beat Valpo.  I know Lafayette Jeff and West Lafayette could beat Valpo.

No arguments there. Not sure I'd put my money on a 1A team against a team that beat Merrillville though. 

[Donnie Baker]

2 hours ago, Komets2727 said:

Good luck with that

I know, probably 4 and I’ll say it right to your face 

[kdets89]

4 hours ago, BTF said:

You really think Lutheran could beat Valpo?

Valpo University, absolutely.

Valpo high school, maybe not.

[temptation]

3 hours ago, Komets2727 said:

Good luck with that

No luck needed for me.  A fan.

10+.

[BTF]

2 hours ago, Donnie Baker said:

I know, probably 4 and I’ll say it right to your face 

PM me please. 

[Donnie Baker]

7 hours ago, BTF said:

PM me please. 

I can’t 

[BTF]

3 hours ago, Donnie Baker said:

I can’t 

No worries. Four touchdowns though? As Komets would say, "good luck with that." I'm thinking more like one or two. 

[Donnie Baker]

2 hours ago, BTF said:

No worries. Four touchdowns though? As Komets would say, "good luck with that." I'm thinking more like one or two. 

The machine says you can’t receive messages. And I think Lutherans is that good. I swear to God I do

[scarab527]

19 hours ago, Tippy said:

I think Lutheran could beat Valpo.  I know Lafayette Jeff and West Lafayette could beat Valpo.

Jeff and WL I'll give you. Lutheran is a great program, but I'll go bet my mortgage on Valpo in that one. 

[Tippy]

19 minutes ago, scarab527 said:

Jeff and WL I'll give you. Lutheran is a great program, but I'll go bet my mortgage on Valpo in that one. 

I wouldn't bet my mortgage, you never know what might happen.  Didn't Pioneer beat Chesterton 20-16 two years ago.

[BTF]

6 minutes ago, Tippy said:

I wouldn't bet my mortgage, you never know what might happen.  Didn't Pioneer beat Chesterton 20-16 two years ago.

Agree. I'm not betting my mortgage, but I'm 80% confident Valpo wins that game. 

[HoosierFootball4]

8 minutes ago, BTF said:

Agree. I'm not betting my mortgage, but I'm 80% confident Valpo wins that game. 

No dog in this fight, but Sagarin seems to think Lutheran would be ~11 point favorite on a neutral field. Seems to be right more then not. 

Edited November 14, 2022 by HoosierFootball4

[scarab527]

22 minutes ago, Tippy said:

I wouldn't bet my mortgage, you never know what might happen.  Didn't Pioneer beat Chesterton 20-16 two years ago.

I think its apples to oranges there. This Valpo team is much more physical and better coached than that Chesterton team and just held an offense with at least 2 D1 skill players to 14 points. Add in the fact that Lutheran runs an offense that DAC teams see every week as opposed to the Wing-T (with two kids that run 4.4 at wingback I might add). Maybe I was being slightly hyperbolic, but BTF's 80% confidence mark seems accurate. Obviously this is all a big credit to Lutheran for building a 1A program where we can even have a debate like this. 

7 minutes ago, HoosierFootball4 said:

No dog in this fight, but Sagarin seems to think Lutheran would be ~11 point favorite on a neutral field. Seems to be right more then not. 

Sagarin also would have Lutheran favored vs Warren, Fishers, New Pal, Chatard, WL, etc... I mean let's be real here I think their Sagarin rating is a little over-inflated. 

Edited November 14, 2022 by scarab527

[HoosierFootball4]

3 minutes ago, scarab527 said:

I think its apples to oranges there. This Valpo team is much more physical and better coached than that Chesterton team and just held on offense with at least 2 D1 skill players to 14 points. Add in the fact that Lutheran runs an offense that DAC teams see every week as opposed to the Wing-T (with two kids that run 4.4 at wingback I might add). Maybe I was being slightly hyperbolic, but BTF's 80% confidence mark seems accurate. Obviously this is all a big credit to Lutheran for building a 1A program where we can even have a debate like this. 

Sagarin also would have Lutheran favored vs Warren, Fishers, New Pal, Chatard, WL, etc... I mean let's be real here I think their Sagarin rating is a little over-inflated. 

Maybe so....they beat a team playing in 3A SS this week 52-6...I think they can punch above their weight class. Guess it's all speculative though. I would take them 1-3A to be competitive. Winning both 1A and 2A. 3A punchers chance vs Chatard and WL.

[temptation]

I'll be honest here.  When doing these rankings, I tend to balance head to head with consistency.  Obviously when ranked teams have played one another, that usually takes precedent and weighs heavily.  I will also say however, that I like to reward the small schools who are willing to play all comers and have also displayed consistency in passing each test.

Lutheran has done so with flying colors, thus I rewarded them.  They have played the second hardest schedule in 1A (behind Pioneer) according to Sagarin and still boast an average margin of victory of 41 points per game.  What else can they honestly do?

Now, in this specific case, I do think that a 5A school like Valpo would dominate in the trenches and would be able to boast tons more depth than Lutheran but I still think Lutheran would have the best player on the field.  

 

 

[scarab527]

20 minutes ago, HoosierFootball4 said:

Maybe so....they beat a team playing in 3A SS this week 52-6...I think they can punch above their weight class. Guess it's all speculative though. I would take them 1-3A to be competitive. Winning both 1A and 2A. 3A punchers chance vs Chatard and WL.

I'll happily take WL or Chatard by 3 TDs over Lutheran, and that's no disrespect to the Saints (I think that could even be being kind to them). Monrovia is a great story but imo them being in SS is more of an indictment on the strength of 3A South this year than anything. I think Lutheran could win 2A but truthfully think it would be a toss up with them vs any of the 4 teams in that class left. By-far their closest games have been against 2A teams that are already knocked out. We haven't seen the Saints vs any good 3A+ teams the last few years, as opposed to 3 of the 4 remaining 2A teams. 

 

22 minutes ago, temptation said:

I'll be honest here.  When doing these rankings, I tend to balance head to head with consistency.  Obviously when ranked teams have played one another, that usually takes precedent and weighs heavily.  I will also say however, that I like to reward the small schools who are willing to play all comers and have also displayed consistency in passing each test.

Lutheran has done so with flying colors, thus I rewarded them.  They have played the second hardest schedule in 1A (behind Pioneer) according to Sagarin and still boast an average margin of victory of 41 points per game.  What else can they honestly do?

Now, in this specific case, I do think that a 5A school like Valpo would dominate in the trenches and would be able to boast tons more depth than Lutheran but I still think Lutheran would have the best player on the field.  

 

 

This. The caliber of line play as you increase classes is generally night-and-day. Lutheran might have the advantage in skill but Valpo has excellent size and is extremely physical. I have no problem where Lutheran is ranked here, I usually hate the arguments you sometimes see from people that the Top 25 should all be teams from higher classes. Again, this is really all just a testament to how good of a program Lutheran has built. 

[temptation]

1 hour ago, scarab527 said:

I'll happily take WL or Chatard by 3 TDs over Lutheran, and that's no disrespect to the Saints (I think that could even be being kind to them). Monrovia is a great story but imo them being in SS is more of an indictment on the strength of 3A South this year than anything. I think Lutheran could win 2A but truthfully think it would be a toss up with them vs any of the 4 teams in that class left. By-far their closest games have been against 2A teams that are already knocked out. We haven't seen the Saints vs any good 3A+ teams the last few years, as opposed to 3 of the 4 remaining 2A teams. 

 

This. The caliber of line play as you increase classes is generally night-and-day. Lutheran might have the advantage in skill but Valpo has excellent size and is extremely physical. I have no problem where Lutheran is ranked here, I usually hate the arguments you sometimes see from people that the Top 25 should all be teams from higher classes. Again, this is really all just a testament to how good of a program Lutheran has built. 

I rank 50 weekly.  I consider 26-50 honorable mention and had Lutheran in the high 40's when the season started.  They just continued to climb but to no fault of their own, can only do so much with the schedule in front of them.

Maybe I will publish the whole top 50 next year?

[Whitehat]

4 hours ago, temptation said:

 

Now, in this specific case, I do think that a 5A school like Valpo would dominate in the trenches and would be able to boast tons more depth than Lutheran but I still think Lutheran would have the best player on the field.  

 

 

I think people will be surprised by the size of Lutheran’s D-Line, I’d put them up against anyone in 1-3A. The O-line is still very much 1A sized.