temptation Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 Only remaining teams eligible. Hamilton Southeastern Cathedral Center Grove Roncalli East Central Carroll (Fort Wayne) Fort Wayne Snider Whiteland Bishop Chatard West Lafayette New Prairie Kokomo Indianapolis Lutheran Evansville Mater Dei Castle Andrean Lawrenceburg Valparaiso Fort Wayne Luers Linton-Stockton Adams Central North Judson Monrovia North Decatur Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Komets2727 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 3 hours ago, temptation said: Only remaining teams eligible. Hamilton Southeastern Cathedral Center Grove Roncalli East Central Carroll (Fort Wayne) Fort Wayne Snider Whiteland Bishop Chatard West Lafayette New Prairie Kokomo Indianapolis Lutheran Evansville Mater Dei Castle Andrean Lawrenceburg Valparaiso Fort Wayne Luers Linton-Stockton Adams Central North Judson Monrovia North Decatur Lutheran at 13 and Adams Central 21? Come on, when those 2 teams play in the title game it literally could go either way and 8 spots apart… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spitting Llamas Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 Linton Stockton at 20 surprises me a little, but I'm not sure where I would put them either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
temptation Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 12 hours ago, Komets2727 said: Lutheran at 13 and Adams Central 21? Come on, when those 2 teams play in the title game it literally could go either way and 8 spots apart… I like Lutheran by two scores. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTF Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 1 hour ago, temptation said: I like Lutheran by two scores. You really think Lutheran could beat Valpo? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tippy Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 33 minutes ago, BTF said: You really think Lutheran could beat Valpo? I think Lutheran could beat Valpo. I know Lafayette Jeff and West Lafayette could beat Valpo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Komets2727 Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 3 hours ago, temptation said: I like Lutheran by two scores. Good luck with that 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTF Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Tippy said: I think Lutheran could beat Valpo. I know Lafayette Jeff and West Lafayette could beat Valpo. No arguments there. Not sure I'd put my money on a 1A team against a team that beat Merrillville though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donnie Baker Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 2 hours ago, Komets2727 said: Good luck with that I know, probably 4 and I’ll say it right to your face Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdets89 Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 4 hours ago, BTF said: You really think Lutheran could beat Valpo? Valpo University, absolutely. Valpo high school, maybe not. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
temptation Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 3 hours ago, Komets2727 said: Good luck with that No luck needed for me. A fan. 10+. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTF Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 2 hours ago, Donnie Baker said: I know, probably 4 and I’ll say it right to your face PM me please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donnie Baker Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 7 hours ago, BTF said: PM me please. I can’t Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTF Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 3 hours ago, Donnie Baker said: I can’t No worries. Four touchdowns though? As Komets would say, "good luck with that." I'm thinking more like one or two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donnie Baker Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 2 hours ago, BTF said: No worries. Four touchdowns though? As Komets would say, "good luck with that." I'm thinking more like one or two. The machine says you can’t receive messages. And I think Lutherans is that good. I swear to God I do Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scarab527 Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 19 hours ago, Tippy said: I think Lutheran could beat Valpo. I know Lafayette Jeff and West Lafayette could beat Valpo. Jeff and WL I'll give you. Lutheran is a great program, but I'll go bet my mortgage on Valpo in that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tippy Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, scarab527 said: Jeff and WL I'll give you. Lutheran is a great program, but I'll go bet my mortgage on Valpo in that one. I wouldn't bet my mortgage, you never know what might happen. Didn't Pioneer beat Chesterton 20-16 two years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTF Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, Tippy said: I wouldn't bet my mortgage, you never know what might happen. Didn't Pioneer beat Chesterton 20-16 two years ago. Agree. I'm not betting my mortgage, but I'm 80% confident Valpo wins that game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierFootball4 Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, BTF said: Agree. I'm not betting my mortgage, but I'm 80% confident Valpo wins that game. No dog in this fight, but Sagarin seems to think Lutheran would be ~11 point favorite on a neutral field. Seems to be right more then not. Edited November 14, 2022 by HoosierFootball4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scarab527 Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Tippy said: I wouldn't bet my mortgage, you never know what might happen. Didn't Pioneer beat Chesterton 20-16 two years ago. I think its apples to oranges there. This Valpo team is much more physical and better coached than that Chesterton team and just held an offense with at least 2 D1 skill players to 14 points. Add in the fact that Lutheran runs an offense that DAC teams see every week as opposed to the Wing-T (with two kids that run 4.4 at wingback I might add). Maybe I was being slightly hyperbolic, but BTF's 80% confidence mark seems accurate. Obviously this is all a big credit to Lutheran for building a 1A program where we can even have a debate like this. 7 minutes ago, HoosierFootball4 said: No dog in this fight, but Sagarin seems to think Lutheran would be ~11 point favorite on a neutral field. Seems to be right more then not. Sagarin also would have Lutheran favored vs Warren, Fishers, New Pal, Chatard, WL, etc... I mean let's be real here I think their Sagarin rating is a little over-inflated. Edited November 14, 2022 by scarab527 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierFootball4 Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, scarab527 said: I think its apples to oranges there. This Valpo team is much more physical and better coached than that Chesterton team and just held on offense with at least 2 D1 skill players to 14 points. Add in the fact that Lutheran runs an offense that DAC teams see every week as opposed to the Wing-T (with two kids that run 4.4 at wingback I might add). Maybe I was being slightly hyperbolic, but BTF's 80% confidence mark seems accurate. Obviously this is all a big credit to Lutheran for building a 1A program where we can even have a debate like this. Sagarin also would have Lutheran favored vs Warren, Fishers, New Pal, Chatard, WL, etc... I mean let's be real here I think their Sagarin rating is a little over-inflated. Maybe so....they beat a team playing in 3A SS this week 52-6...I think they can punch above their weight class. Guess it's all speculative though. I would take them 1-3A to be competitive. Winning both 1A and 2A. 3A punchers chance vs Chatard and WL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
temptation Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 I'll be honest here. When doing these rankings, I tend to balance head to head with consistency. Obviously when ranked teams have played one another, that usually takes precedent and weighs heavily. I will also say however, that I like to reward the small schools who are willing to play all comers and have also displayed consistency in passing each test. Lutheran has done so with flying colors, thus I rewarded them. They have played the second hardest schedule in 1A (behind Pioneer) according to Sagarin and still boast an average margin of victory of 41 points per game. What else can they honestly do? Now, in this specific case, I do think that a 5A school like Valpo would dominate in the trenches and would be able to boast tons more depth than Lutheran but I still think Lutheran would have the best player on the field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scarab527 Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 20 minutes ago, HoosierFootball4 said: Maybe so....they beat a team playing in 3A SS this week 52-6...I think they can punch above their weight class. Guess it's all speculative though. I would take them 1-3A to be competitive. Winning both 1A and 2A. 3A punchers chance vs Chatard and WL. I'll happily take WL or Chatard by 3 TDs over Lutheran, and that's no disrespect to the Saints (I think that could even be being kind to them). Monrovia is a great story but imo them being in SS is more of an indictment on the strength of 3A South this year than anything. I think Lutheran could win 2A but truthfully think it would be a toss up with them vs any of the 4 teams in that class left. By-far their closest games have been against 2A teams that are already knocked out. We haven't seen the Saints vs any good 3A+ teams the last few years, as opposed to 3 of the 4 remaining 2A teams. 22 minutes ago, temptation said: I'll be honest here. When doing these rankings, I tend to balance head to head with consistency. Obviously when ranked teams have played one another, that usually takes precedent and weighs heavily. I will also say however, that I like to reward the small schools who are willing to play all comers and have also displayed consistency in passing each test. Lutheran has done so with flying colors, thus I rewarded them. They have played the second hardest schedule in 1A (behind Pioneer) according to Sagarin and still boast an average margin of victory of 41 points per game. What else can they honestly do? Now, in this specific case, I do think that a 5A school like Valpo would dominate in the trenches and would be able to boast tons more depth than Lutheran but I still think Lutheran would have the best player on the field. This. The caliber of line play as you increase classes is generally night-and-day. Lutheran might have the advantage in skill but Valpo has excellent size and is extremely physical. I have no problem where Lutheran is ranked here, I usually hate the arguments you sometimes see from people that the Top 25 should all be teams from higher classes. Again, this is really all just a testament to how good of a program Lutheran has built. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
temptation Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 hour ago, scarab527 said: I'll happily take WL or Chatard by 3 TDs over Lutheran, and that's no disrespect to the Saints (I think that could even be being kind to them). Monrovia is a great story but imo them being in SS is more of an indictment on the strength of 3A South this year than anything. I think Lutheran could win 2A but truthfully think it would be a toss up with them vs any of the 4 teams in that class left. By-far their closest games have been against 2A teams that are already knocked out. We haven't seen the Saints vs any good 3A+ teams the last few years, as opposed to 3 of the 4 remaining 2A teams. This. The caliber of line play as you increase classes is generally night-and-day. Lutheran might have the advantage in skill but Valpo has excellent size and is extremely physical. I have no problem where Lutheran is ranked here, I usually hate the arguments you sometimes see from people that the Top 25 should all be teams from higher classes. Again, this is really all just a testament to how good of a program Lutheran has built. I rank 50 weekly. I consider 26-50 honorable mention and had Lutheran in the high 40's when the season started. They just continued to climb but to no fault of their own, can only do so much with the schedule in front of them. Maybe I will publish the whole top 50 next year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitehat Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 4 hours ago, temptation said: Now, in this specific case, I do think that a 5A school like Valpo would dominate in the trenches and would be able to boast tons more depth than Lutheran but I still think Lutheran would have the best player on the field. I think people will be surprised by the size of Lutheran’s D-Line, I’d put them up against anyone in 1-3A. The O-line is still very much 1A sized. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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