What's a homefield advantage worth?

[hhpatriot04]

Hello all,

It's been a while. My apologies for my absence. Moved to Boston, life, and growth.

I offer you the definitive homefield advantage considering every Indiana high school football game played since 1999. (Thanks Jeff Sagarin and John Harrell for the source data.)

More to come, including the ability to predict "What if matchups between teams from different years using a strictly statistical approach because I have put all of Sagarin's ratings since 1999 into text/CSV files so the data can be easily parsed. Enough rambling, here are the numbers:

Home Field Advantage by Year (excluding 2020):
================================================
1999: 1.15 (points)
2000: 0.93
2001: 1.22
2002: 1.19
2003: 0.84
2004: 1.07
2005: 1.34
2006: 0.89
2007: 1.45
2008: 1.53
2009: 0.89
2010: 2.06
2011: 1.63
2012: 1.67
2013: 1.68
2014: 0.83
2015: 1.06
2016: 1.28
2017: 1.65
2018: 1.73
2019: 1.33
2021: 1.27
2022: 1.49
2023: 2.05
2024: 0.97

================================================
Number of years processed: 25
Average Home Field Advantage: 1.328 points or 0.443 field goals or 0.664 two-point conversions/safeties.

But why?

[Muda69]

Thank you artificial turf.  When almost all the fields surfaces are basically the same it negates any kind of home field advantage.  The away team doesn't have to worry about that 5-6 inch high Kentucky bluegrass slowing everyone down, the mud pit at the 50 yard line from a torrential rain storm the night before the game, or that secret low spot/divot  somewhere around the 25 yard line that the home team knows about but the visitors don't. 

Coaches hate variables come game day, and artificial turf removes those fantastic variables.

 

[US31]

Curious how this would shake out if you could do it only for Sectional, Regional, & SemiState Championship games.  Travel may be further, crowds are typically larger, weather is more of a factor, etc

[btownqbcoach1]

29 minutes ago, Muda69 said:

Thank you artificial turf.  When almost all the fields surfaces are basically the same it negates any kind of home field advantage.  The away team doesn't have to worry about that 5-6 inch high Kentucky bluegrass slowing everyone down, the mud pit at the 50 yard line from a torrential rain storm the night before the game, or that secret low spot/divot  somewhere around the 25 yard line that the home team knows about but the visitors don't. 

Coaches hate variables come game day, and artificial turf removes those fantastic variables.

 

I can't believe I'm doing this.... 

did you not look at the data? There is no trend in that data to suggest anything has been eliminated. 2000's data-- .93, 2024--- .97 

Spikes in 2010-- 2.06, but then by 2014 it's .83... back to 2.05 in 2023. 

 

The data tells us there is zero trend here.... facts matter 

[Muda69]

47 minutes ago, btownqbcoach1 said:

I can't believe I'm doing this.... 

did you not look at the data? There is no trend in that data to suggest anything has been eliminated. 2000's data-- .93, 2024--- .97 

Spikes in 2010-- 2.06, but then by 2014 it's .83... back to 2.05 in 2023. 

 

The data tells us there is zero trend here.... facts matter 

Yes, that fact is that natural grass is a better surface if you want a true home field advantage. 

 

[btownqbcoach1]

5 minutes ago, Muda69 said:

Yes, that fact is that natural grass is a better surface if you want a true home field advantage. 

 

I don't think the surface matters a lick. I'm certain it's not a fact, either. 

[Muda69]

27 minutes ago, btownqbcoach1 said:

I don't think the surface matters a lick. I'm certain it's not a fact, either. 

I am certain that grass is better.

 

[btownqbcoach1]

9 minutes ago, Muda69 said:

I am certain that grass is better.

 

Facts and opinions confuse you

[Coach Nowlin]

57 minutes ago, btownqbcoach1 said:

I don't think the surface matters a lick. I'm certain it's not a fact, either. 

You were not in Ft Wayne Nov 20th 2010 clearly !!!    😎

[JQWL]

1 hour ago, btownqbcoach1 said:

I don't think the surface matters a lick. I'm certain it's not a fact, either. 

I would have preferred not playing on your turf last year and would have preferred a grass field. Also, from what I heard, you guys would have preferred your turf to the grass/mud field you played on two weeks later.

[btownqbcoach1]

16 minutes ago, JQWL said:

I would have preferred not playing on your turf last year and would have preferred a grass field. Also, from what I heard, you guys would have preferred your turf to the grass/mud field you played on two weeks later.

you mean play at home? well duh.... but idc either way, I'm not sure where you would have heard that. 

21 minutes ago, Coach Nowlin said:

You were not in Ft Wayne Nov 20th 2010 clearly !!!    😎

I was at Southridge Nov 14, 2008, though. 

As far as I know.... BOTH teams play on the surface. 

Edited April 29, 2025 by btownqbcoach1

[Daniel_Bragg]

2 hours ago, Muda69 said:

Thank you artificial turf.  When almost all the fields surfaces are basically the same it negates any kind of home field advantage.  The away team doesn't have to worry about that 5-6 inch high Kentucky bluegrass slowing everyone down, the mud pit at the 50 yard line from a torrential rain storm the night before the game, or that secret low spot/divot  somewhere around the 25 yard line that the home team knows about but the visitors don't. 

Coaches hate variables come game day, and artificial turf removes those fantastic variables.

 

I know, right?!  Who wants an even playing field, where the better team on that day wins?  Sheesh.  Give me random and the ability for host schools to manipulate the game.  THAT'S WHAT SPORTS ARE ALL ABOUT!!!



Wait....

Edited April 29, 2025 by Daniel_Bragg

[23andCounting]

Team A hosts Team B on a grass field deep into the playoffs. Team B has yet to play a game on a grass field. Massive homefield advantage to the home team. So yeah, there are circumstances where turf comes into play. 

The biggest factor as to why there isn't much homefield advantage at the high school level comes down to several factors. No overnight stays. No jet lag. No crowds of 80,000 fans making it difficult to hear snap counts and audibles. 

 

[Muda69]

24 minutes ago, Daniel_Bragg said:

I know, right?!  Who wants an even playing field, where the better team on that day wins?  Sheesh.  Give me random and the ability for host schools to manipulate the game.  THAT'S WHAT SPORTS ARE ALL ABOUT!!!



Wait....

It's called an aspect of Real Life.  These children should get used to the fact that not everything is fair. 

 

1 hour ago, btownqbcoach1 said:

Facts and opinions confuse you

I am certain my opinion is factual.

 

[Sparty]

3 minutes ago, Muda69 said:

It's called an aspect of Real Life.  These children should get used to the fact that not everything is fair. 

 

Why?  You haven’t.  

[btownqbcoach1]

30 minutes ago, Muda69 said:

It's called an aspect of Real Life.  These children should get used to the fact that not everything is fair. 

 

I am certain my opinion is factual.

 

it's not

32 minutes ago, 23andCounting said:

Team A hosts Team B on a grass field deep into the playoffs. Team B has yet to play a game on a grass field. Massive homefield advantage to the home team. So yeah, there are circumstances where turf comes into play. 

The biggest factor as to why there isn't much homefield advantage at the high school level comes down to several factors. No overnight stays. No jet lag. No crowds of 80,000 fans making it difficult to hear snap counts and audibles. 

 

massive? no 

Some what? maybe... 

 

What if Team A kicks the shit out of Team B anyways? 

[23andCounting]

2 minutes ago, btownqbcoach1 said:

What if Team A kicks the shit out of Team B anyways? 

An advantage nonetheless. And were not talking about 1.93 here. It could be a 14pt swing. 

[JQWL]

1 hour ago, btownqbcoach1 said:

you mean play at home? well duh.... but idc either way, I'm not sure where you would have heard that. 

I was at Southridge Nov 14, 2008, though. 

As far as I know.... BOTH teams play on the surface. 

No, I mean play on grass and not turf. I thought our kids slipped several times.

I guess I'm not going to name names on who told me that but he coaches basketball at Brownstown.

[btownqbcoach1]

22 minutes ago, JQWL said:

No, I mean play on grass and not turf. I thought our kids slipped several times.

I guess I'm not going to name names on who told me that but he coaches basketball at Brownstown.

I would have just preferred to play better. 

23 minutes ago, 23andCounting said:

An advantage nonetheless. And were not talking about 1.93 here. It could be a 14pt swing. 

so myths 

[23andCounting]

8 minutes ago, btownqbcoach1 said:

so myths 

I'd rather refer to it as an opinion. But if you want to roll with myth, I'll come back with fact. 

Edited April 29, 2025 by 23andCounting

[btownqbcoach1]

29 minutes ago, JQWL said:

No, I mean play on grass and not turf. I thought our kids slipped several times.

I guess I'm not going to name names on who told me that but he coaches basketball at Brownstown.

won't let me edit my post... 

The only option of "you guys playing on grass" was you guys playing at home.... obviously, there's no neutral field. So you prefer to play at home, heck yeah, I understand that.... I would have preferred the regional at home, as well. 

1 minute ago, 23andCounting said:

I'd rather refer to it as an opinion. But if you want to roll with myth, I'll comeback with fact. 

It's certainly not a fact that a grass team has a 14pt advantage playing at home vs a turf team lol 

[Muda69]

1 hour ago, Sparty said:

Why?  You haven’t.  

Haven't what, exactly?  Use your words, Sparty.

40 minutes ago, btownqbcoach1 said:

it's not

I believe that it is.  

[btownqbcoach1]

1 minute ago, Muda69 said:

Haven't what, exactly?  Use your words, Sparty.

I believe that it is.  

I believe that you believe that

Edited April 29, 2025 by btownqbcoach1

[Muda69]

Just now, btownqbcoach1 said:

right. you believe that, which is relevant 

Much like the relevancy of your beliefs.

 

[23andCounting]

2 minutes ago, btownqbcoach1 said:

It's certainly not a fact that a grass team has a 14pt advantage playing at home vs a turf team lol 

No, it's not a 14 point swing in all circumstances. There are different variables involved with each team......strengths, weaknesses, etc. But it's certainly not a "myth" either. Let's roll with a difference in "opinion."