Interesting Sagarin Observation

[JustRules]

Of the 48 sectional championship games (including LCC in sectional 42), 39 of them have the #1 seed playing in the sectional final. The 3 that aren't include Floyd Central (lost to Jeffersonville), Kankakee Valley (lost to Culver Acadmies), and Eastbroo (lost to Tipton). The last two were very close in Sagarin rating so weren't big upsets. Floyd Central was a 20-point favorite. Of the 48 sectional final games, 25 are 1 v. 2 and 13 more are 1 vs. 3. Looing at 1A-4A there are 32 sectional finals and only 3 of them involve teams not in the top half of the sectional per Sagarin. They are 18 Logansport (5), 23 Martinsville (5), and 30 Washington (6). I didn't do the same for 5A and 6A because in those sectionals #3 is in the bottom half and often a very good team.

With all the great games this week this is what a seeded tournament could look like each year for the sectional final. Sagarin isn't always right on a mirco level but it proves to be fairly accurate again from a macro level.

[Lysander]

My guess is those 3 aberrational Sectionals might well involve COVID forfeits....not that I’ve looked.

[Impartial_Observer]

8 hours ago, Lysander said:

My guess is those 3 aberrational Sectionals might well involve COVID forfeits....not that I’ve looked.

FC/Jeff was not affected by Covid. 

[tango]

@JustRules Are you using current Sagarin numbers or the numbers at the time of the draw? 

[JustRules]

1 hour ago, tango said:

@JustRules Are you using current Sagarin numbers or the numbers at the time of the draw? 

Good point. I'm using the current numbers on Harrell's site which probably are current. I would think they would change significantly though. It's possible #2 and #3 were close going in and swapped places after the first two rounds. If they were that close the general principle still applies. If someone saved the final Sagarin ratings following week 9 it would be interesting to see how much these trends still held.

[oldtimeqb]

9 hours ago, Lysander said:

My guess is those 3 aberrational Sectionals might well involve COVID forfeits....not that I’ve looked.

With all due respect to Washington (Sectional 30), Sullivan probably won the sectional championship last weekend over Vincennes Lincoln 28-26.  That sectional was a victim of the blind draw as opposed to COVID. 

Now that I look at it, this may be Sullivan’s first sectional championship in school history. 

[Titan32]

57 minutes ago, oldtimeqb said:

With all due respect to Washington (Sectional 30), Sullivan probably won the sectional championship last weekend over Vincennes Lincoln 28-26.  That sectional was a victim of the blind draw as opposed to COVID. 

Now that I look at it, this may be Sullivan’s first sectional championship in school history. 

Sullivan is a solid program.....best of luck to the Golden Arrows!

[NLCTigerFan07]

1 hour ago, JustRules said:

Good point. I'm using the current numbers on Harrell's site which probably are current. I would think they would change significantly though. It's possible #2 and #3 were close going in and swapped places after the first two rounds. If they were that close the general principle still applies. If someone saved the final Sagarin ratings following week 9 it would be interesting to see how much these trends still held.

Yeah this would be important to look at. For example, ALL of the SAC schools saw significant changes to their Sagarin ratings after the first round of sectionals thanks to playing non-SAC teams. As a side note, I know Warsaw's rating now was changed from before the tournament, and another example in 6A is Perry Meridian now being ranked 30th when before their game against Tech, those two programs were ranked the 2 worst in 6A Sagarin

[JustRules]

17 minutes ago, NLCTigerFan07 said:

Yeah this would be important to look at. For example, ALL of the SAC schools saw significant changes to their Sagarin ratings after the first round of sectionals thanks to playing non-SAC teams. As a side note, I know Warsaw's rating now was changed from before the tournament, and another example in 6A is Perry Meridian now being ranked 30th when before their game against Tech, those two programs were ranked the 2 worst in 6A Sagarin

Warsaw is #3 in their sectional and may have been #4 behind Snider. They are only separated by 4 points. Many of the 5A/6A sectionals are so close to begin with it's less of an indicator. In that sectional Homestead is currently 86..31, Carroll is 81.28, Warsaw is 74.36, and Snider is 70.36. Perry is still well below Ben Davis and Southport in their sectional and 10 points ahead of Tech. I don't know where they were before the update. They only moved up 1 spot in the class from 31 or 32 to 30 which is not significant. With only 4 teams in most sectionals 5A and 6A are less applicable to this analysis. Several of the 1v3 matchups came from these classes.

Edited November 3, 2020 by JustRules

[NLCTigerFan07]

3 minutes ago, JustRules said:

Warsaw is #3 in their sectional and may have been #4 behind Snider. They are only separated by 4 points. Many of the 5A/6A sectionals are so close to begin with it's less of an indicator. In that sectional Homestead is currently 86..31, Carroll is 81.28, Warsaw is 74.36, and Snider is 70.36. Perry is still well below Ben Davis and Southport in their sectional and 10 points ahead of Tech. I don't know where they were before the update. They only moved up 1 spot in the class from 31 or 32 to 30 which is not significant. With only 4 teams in most sectionals 5A and 6A are less applicable to this analysis. Several of the 1v3 matchups came from these classes.

I know, but I'm saying before their sectional victory over Carroll last week, pretty sure their Sagarin rating was like 70.32 or something. I was just letting you know that the Sagarin ratings have changed since the start of sectional play, so it is very likely due to the remaining team's victories that has assisted in having so many 1 vs 2 matchups this Friday, because those teams Sagarin ratings benefited from their victories. It would be great if someone had the rankings from before Sectional play, as you stated, to see how many 1 vs 2 matchups we got based on pre-sectional rankings.

[tango]

6 hours ago, JustRules said:

Good point. I'm using the current numbers on Harrell's site which probably are current. I would think they would change significantly though. It's possible #2 and #3 were close going in and swapped places after the first two rounds. If they were that close the general principle still applies. If someone saved the final Sagarin ratings following week 9 it would be interesting to see how much these trends still held.

As of 10/19 (after Wk. 9), the top 4 in Sectional 24 were:

#1 - Northview 69.26

#2 - Central 64.31

#3 - Jasper 52.10

#4 - Memorial 44.86

These 1/4 & 2/3 games were actually played in Round 1, with #4 Memorial beating #1 Northview 28-6 and #2 Central beating #3 Jasper 30-7.   

Any Sagarin numbers involving the SIAC or SAC were not real accurate at that time.  After 2 tournament games, the numbers have gone up substantially.  Central is now 86.93 and Memorial is 69.16.