Stoner Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 (edited) Had a couple hours this afternoon, so I worked up sectional champions (and beyond) between 1985 (start of the all-in tournament) and 1999, that were in the bottom half of the Sagarin Ratings in their respective class at the end of that regular season. In other words, these are the teams that would not have made a tournament had the field been cut in half by Sagarin Ratings before the tournament started. Class A usually had less than 64 teams in class, which alters things a bit. There could well be a few schools I missed here, but I don't think many. Here Goes: 1985 West Vigo (3A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 50th of 64, Ranked 5th in Sectional 1986 Rensselaer (2A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 43nd of 64, Ranked 6th in Sectional 1987 Center Grove (5A Sectional and Regional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 33rd of 64, Ranked 3rd in Sectional 1987 Northwood (3A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 35th of 64, Ranked 2nd in Sectional 1988 Evansville Central (5A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 34th of 64, Ranked 5th in Sectional 1988 Logansport (4A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 33rd of 64, Ranked 4th in Sectional 1988 Northwood (3A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 37th of 64, Ranked 2nd in Sectional 1989 Andrean (4A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 43rd of 64, Ranked 3rd in Sectional 1989 Greensburg (3A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 47th of 64, Ranked 4th in Sectional 1989 Tri County (1A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 32nd of 57, Ranked 4th in Sectional 1990 Evansville Harrison (5A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 46th of 64, Ranked 5th in Sectional 1991 Manchester (2A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 38th of 64, Ranked 5th in Sectional 1991 South Putnam (1A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 29th of 56, Ranked 2nd in Sectional 1992 Cascade (2A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 45th of 64, Ranked 3rd in Sectional 1993 Charlestown (3A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 40th of 64, Ranked 3rd in Sectional 1994 Harrison (5A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 45th of 64, Ranked 6th in Sectional 1994 Rockville (1A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 34th of 55, Ranked 2nd in Sectional 1995 Brown County (3A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 36th of 64, Ranked 4th in Sectional 1995 Leo (2A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 45th of 64, Ranked 6th in Sectional 1995 Lapel (1A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 39th of 54, Ranked 3rd in Sectional 1996 Charlestown (3A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 40th of 64, Ranked 3rd in Sectional 1996 FW Luers (2A Sectional, Regional, and Semistate Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 39th of 64, Ranked 5th in Sectional 1997 Northwestern (2A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 33rd of 64, Ranked 6th in Sectional 1998 Arlington (5A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 33rd of 64, Ranked 3rd in Sectional 1998 Jeffersonville (5A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 45th of 64, Ranked 6th in Sectional 1998 Yorktown (3A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 38th of 64, Ranked 6th in Sectional 1998 Lake Station (2A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 33rd of 64, Ranked 2nd in Sectional 1999 Muncie South (4A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 41st of 64, Ranked 3rd in Sectional 1999 Mt Vernon Posey (3A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 41st of 64 Ranked 5th in Sectional 1999 Lawrenceburg (2A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 33rd of 64, Ranked 3rd in Sectional 1999 Clarksville (1A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 35th of 62, Ranked 5th in Sectional Edited October 12, 2022 by Stoner 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scarab527 Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 But I was told in another thread that teams in the bottom half of Sagarin have never done anything in the post season ever. In all seriousness, good job with this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishman Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 @Stoner Good work....thanks for posting that. I think there are flaws to ANY system that requires qualifying for the playoffs. The IHSAA under Bobby Cox, in my opinion was way ahead of the game in going the all in path. That said, I am curious though...and just playing devil's advocate with this; so please don't take this as me attacking the post. Looking at a number of teams on the list where the season ended with a sectional title, how many of their playoff wins were against teams who were ranked similarly or lower in Sagarin's algorithm? Just as an example of my question, "1995 Lapel (1A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 39th of 54, Ranked 3rd in Sectional" With either 7 or 8 teams in a given sectional at that time, how many teams did Lapel play that were ranked lower than them? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Komets2727 Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 As I stated in another thread, this is exactly why you let all in… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stoner Posted October 12, 2022 Author Share Posted October 12, 2022 (edited) 44 minutes ago, Irishman said: @Stoner Good work....thanks for posting that. I think there are flaws to ANY system that requires qualifying for the playoffs. The IHSAA under Bobby Cox, in my opinion was way ahead of the game in going the all in path. That said, I am curious though...and just playing devil's advocate with this; so please don't take this as me attacking the post. Looking at a number of teams on the list where the season ended with a sectional title, how many of their playoff wins were against teams who were ranked similarly or lower in Sagarin's algorithm? Just as an example of my question, "1995 Lapel (1A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 39th of 54, Ranked 3rd in Sectional" With either 7 or 8 teams in a given sectional at that time, how many teams did Lapel play that were ranked lower than them? I really didnt have time to look at much of that. I did look at West Vigo in '85--Crawfordsville did the dirty work the week before beating Zionsville, 2-0. Sagarin had Zionsville ranked 18th including all classes--then West Vigo came back from 17 down in the last 10 minutes to beat Crawfordsville the following week. I did look to see if a sectional couldnt possibly have had a winner in the top half of Sagarin, I think the one Rockville won was that way, but that was the only one I recall. Edited October 12, 2022 by Stoner 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hhpatriot04 Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 The argument has never been the top half of Sagarin. TW worked on this like 15 years ago. It was something like all teams over .500 plus the top teams in Sagarin to reach 32 teams per class. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hhpatriot04 Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 Where did you find Sagarin ratings going back that far? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxbat Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, hhpatriot04 said: Where did you find Sagarin ratings going back that far? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hhpatriot04 Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 28 minutes ago, foxbat said: Can I sample your stash? Just Wayback Machine or ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footballking16 Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Irishman said: @Stoner Good work....thanks for posting that. I think there are flaws to ANY system that requires qualifying for the playoffs. The IHSAA under Bobby Cox, in my opinion was way ahead of the game in going the all in path. That said, I am curious though...and just playing devil's advocate with this; so please don't take this as me attacking the post. Looking at a number of teams on the list where the season ended with a sectional title, how many of their playoff wins were against teams who were ranked similarly or lower in Sagarin's algorithm? Just as an example of my question, "1995 Lapel (1A Sectional Champs), Sagarin Class Rank 39th of 54, Ranked 3rd in Sectional" With either 7 or 8 teams in a given sectional at that time, how many teams did Lapel play that were ranked lower than them? This will go unnoticed by many people, especially @Komets2727 @scarab527 There are pockets of sectionals littered across the state where many and/or all the teams will be ranked outside the top half by Sagarin. Because games are played, someone eventually HAS to win. That’s the flaw with the all-in blind draw. Those teams shouldn’t be in the postseason and winning a sectional with a bunch of other teams who also shouldn’t be in the postseason isn’t justification for keeping an archaic postseason format. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scarab527 Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, Footballking16 said: This will go unnoticed by many people, especially @Komets2727 @scarab527 There are pockets of sectionals littered across the state where many and/or all the teams will be ranked outside the top half by Sagarin. Because games are played, someone eventually HAS to win. That’s the flaw with the all-in blind draw. Those teams shouldn’t be in the postseason and winning a sectional with a bunch of other teams who also shouldn’t be in the postseason isn’t justification for keeping an archaic postseason format. Except if you look most of these teams would’ve had to have beat teams in the top half of the Sagarin ratings to win the sectional, just judging from their rankings in the class and their rankings in the sectional. Back track some more then try again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footballking16 Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 (edited) 28 minutes ago, scarab527 said: Except if you look most of these teams would’ve had to have beat teams in the top half of the Sagarin ratings to win the sectional, just judging from their rankings in the class and their rankings in the sectional. Back track some more then try again. I’ve never said a team rated outside the top half of Sagarin hasn’t won a sectional. I said it’s extremely rare. Finding a couple one off examples from tournaments that have nearly 50 sectionals from 25-35 years ago furthers that point. It doesn’t justify keeping an archaic playoff format. If one guy going 100 mph survives a car crash it doesn’t justify raising the speed limit to 100 mph. I will gladly track the W-L record of this years postseason between top half Sagarin rated teams vs bottom half Sagarin teams and if history holds you won’t need a full set fingers to count the number of “upsets” that occur. And you might not even need a single finger to count the number of bottom half Sagarin rated sectional winners other than the the teams who advance by virtue of not playing a top half rated Sagarin team. There are unfortunately a few sectionals this year that feature schools who are all ranked outside the top half. Somebody has to advance in that scenario. Edited October 13, 2022 by Footballking16 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragdoll Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 A number of very bad teams have won a sectional. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footballking16 Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, ragdoll said: A number of very bad teams have won a sectional. Well yeah when there are entire sectionals comprised of very bad teams there does have to be an eventual winner. That's how single elimination tournaments typically work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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