hhpatriot04

Not sure he'd be willing to give those 1.2 HFA points at Yellig Park this year.

You can make a real sectional as well...

The ihsaa should allow cooping

Updated through Week 7. I'm surprised this isn't more popular!?

Sorry. I reread. You are using John Harrell. I posted Jeff Sagarin. My bad.

I think your lines are a bit off. Are you using the updated ratings for Week 8 and are you using the Predictor value, not the rating value? 2025 Ev. Reitz is a 36.5-point favorite hosting 2025 Ev. Bosse with a 1.2-point HFA. Win probability: 2025 Ev. Reitz 94.28%, 2025 Ev. Bosse 5.72%. 2025 Ev. Mater Dei is a 23.5-point favorite at 2025 Ev. Harrison with a 1.2-point HFA. Win probability: 2025 Ev. Mater Dei 85.86%, 2025 Ev. Harrison 14.14%. 2025 Castle is a 27.0-point favorite at 2025 Ev. Harrison with a 1.2-point HFA. Win probability: 2025 Castle 88.82%, 2025 Ev. Harrison 11.18%. 2025 Ev. Memorial is a 12.0-point favorite hosting 2025 Vincennes with a 1.2-point HFA. Win probability: 2025 Ev. Memorial 71.53%, 2025 Vincennes 28.47%. 2025 Jasper is a 4.5-point favorite hosting 2025 Ev. North with a 1.2-point HFA. Win probability: 2025 Jasper 58.55%, 2025 Ev. North 41.45%.

New Feature: Predict a Sectional Tournament Teams were matched, according to if the sectional were seeded using Sagarin ratings after Week 7. Tournament Predictions Quarter-Finals 2025 Gibson Southern advances on a bye. 2025 Ev. Mater Dei is a 1.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Southridge (no HFA). Win probability: 2025 Ev. Mater Dei 52.88%, 2025 Southridge 47.12%. 2025 Vincennes is a 14.0-point favorite vs. 2025 Mt. Vern. (Posey) (no HFA). Win probability: 2025 Vincennes 74.55%, 2025 Mt. Vern. (Posey) 25.45%. 2025 Ev. Memorial is a 34.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Princeton (no HFA). Win probability: 2025 Ev. Memorial 93.39%, 2025 Princeton 6.61%. Potential Semi-Finals Top Bracket (Winner 1/2 vs. Winner 3/4) 2025 Gibson Southern is a 20.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Ev. Mater Dei (no HFA). Win probability: 2025 Gibson Southern 82.83%, 2025 Ev. Mater Dei 17.17%. (Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 53.03%) 2025 Gibson Southern is a 22.0-point favorite vs. 2025 Southridge (no HFA). Win probability: 2025 Gibson Southern 84.4%, 2025 Southridge 15.6%. (Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 46.97%) Bottom Bracket (Winner 5/6 vs. Winner 7/8) 2025 Ev. Memorial is a 11.0-point favorite vs. 2025 Vincennes (no HFA). Win probability: 2025 Ev. Memorial 69.94%, 2025 Vincennes 30.06%. (Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 69.36%) 2025 Vincennes is a 23.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Princeton (no HFA). Win probability: 2025 Vincennes 85.86%, 2025 Princeton 14.14%. (Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 4.92%) 2025 Ev. Memorial is a 24.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Mt. Vern. (Posey) (no HFA). Win probability: 2025 Ev. Memorial 86.77%, 2025 Mt. Vern. (Posey) 13.23%. (Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 24.01%) 2025 Mt. Vern. (Posey) is a 10.0-point favorite vs. 2025 Princeton (no HFA). Win probability: 2025 Mt. Vern. (Posey) 68.3%, 2025 Princeton 31.7%. (Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 1.71%) Overall Tournament Win Probability 2025 Gibson Southern: 59.14% 2025 Ev. Mater Dei: 3.30% 2025 Southridge: 2.45% 2025 Vincennes: 6.18% 2025 Mt. Vern. (Posey): 0.47% 2025 Ev. Memorial: 28.39% 2025 Princeton: 0.07% Potential Finals 2025 Gibson Southern is a 19.0-point favorite vs. 2025 Vincennes (no HFA). Win probability: 2025 Gibson Southern 81.13%, 2025 Vincennes 18.87%. (Probability of this specific final matchup occurring: 21.04%) 2025 Gibson Southern is a 33.0-point favorite vs. 2025 Mt. Vern. (Posey) (no HFA). Win probability: 2025 Gibson Southern 92.64%, 2025 Mt. Vern. (Posey) 7.36%. (Probability of this specific final matchup occurring: 3.58%) 2025 Gibson Southern is a 8.0-point favorite vs. 2025 Ev. Memorial (no HFA). Win probability: 2025 Gibson Southern 64.89%, 2025 Ev. Memorial 35.11%. (Probability of this specific final matchup occurring: 57.77%) 2025 Gibson Southern is a 42.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Princeton (no HFA). Win probability: 2025 Gibson Southern 96.31%, 2025 Princeton 3.69%. (Probability of this specific final matchup occurring: 1.03%) 2025 Vincennes is a 1.0-point favorite vs. 2025 Ev. Mater Dei (no HFA). Win probability: 2025 Vincennes 51.92%, 2025 Ev. Mater Dei 48.08%. (Probability of this specific final matchup occurring: 2.32%) 2025 Ev. Mater Dei is a 12.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Mt. Vern. (Posey) (no HFA). Win probability: 2025 Ev. Mater Dei 72.3%, 2025 Mt. Vern. (Posey) 27.7%. (Probability of this specific final matchup occurring: 0.40%) 2025 Ev. Memorial is a 12.0-point favorite vs. 2025 Ev. Mater Dei (no HFA). Win probability: 2025 Ev. Memorial 71.53%, 2025 Ev. Mater Dei 28.47%. (Probability of this specific final matchup occurring: 6.37%) 2025 Ev. Mater Dei is a 22.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Princeton (no HFA). Win probability: 2025 Ev. Mater Dei 84.9%, 2025 Princeton 15.1%. (Probability of this specific final matchup occurring: 0.11%) 2025 Vincennes is a 3.0-point favorite vs. 2025 Southridge (no HFA). Win probability: 2025 Vincennes 55.73%, 2025 Southridge 44.27%. (Probability of this specific final matchup occurring: 1.86%) 2025 Southridge is a 11.0-point favorite vs. 2025 Mt. Vern. (Posey) (no HFA). Win probability: 2025 Southridge 69.94%, 2025 Mt. Vern. (Posey) 30.06%. (Probability of this specific final matchup occurring: 0.32%) 2025 Ev. Memorial is a 13.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Southridge (no HFA). Win probability: 2025 Ev. Memorial 73.81%, 2025 Southridge 26.19%. (Probability of this specific final matchup occurring: 5.10%) 2025 Southridge is a 21.0-point favorite vs. 2025 Princeton (no HFA). Win probability: 2025 Southridge 83.37%, 2025 Princeton 16.63%. (Probability of this specific final matchup occurring: 0.09%)

I added this feature to the Predictor Tool called Predict a Tournament. It allows you to simulate up to an eight-team tournament using current Sagarin ratings. Note: There is no homefield advantage factor because I didn't think it was needed. Also, you can include byes by leaving a field blank. Enjoy!

Congratulations to the Titans. You were the better team tonight.

And we're off... Shots fired!

Jeff Sagarin Prediction Result: 2025 Heritage Hills (Raw: 80.0) is a 3.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Gibson Southern (Raw: 75.0) with a 1.5-point HFA. Win probability: 2025 Heritage Hills 56.68%, 2025 Gibson Southern 43.32%.

The Pretties vs. The Uglies ... I like it (with a conference championship week).

Speak or ban cancelled!

I added the ability to predict between years. The math is pretty solid (I just compare each team to the mean for a given year). 2024 Ben Davis (Raw: 93.4 / WinsM: 45.4 / Norm: 123.0) is a 10.0-point favorite vs. 2025 New Palestine (Raw: 90.2 / WinsM: 52.4 / Norm: 112.8) (no HFA). Win probability: 2024 Ben Davis 68.3%, 2025 New Palestine 31.7%. Note: Predictions are rounded to the half (0.5) point. Matchup comparisons use normalized ratings (Raw Predictor - Year's Winsorized Mean) and apply home-field advantage, if selected, and averaged if years are different). Updated thru: Week 14 — September 14, 2025

Back to the home team being favored by 1.2 points after four games (all is right with the world now, so I can sleep again).

No more talk than this?!? Spill the beans!

Yes and updated through Week 4 of 2025!

Sagarin: 2025 Jasper (Raw: 71.0 / WinsM: 55.5 / Norm: 90.5) is a 31.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Ev. Bosse (Raw: 39.3 / WinsM: 55.5 / Norm: 58.8) Win probability: 2025 Jasper 91.82%, 2025 Ev. Bosse 8.18%. 2025 Castle (Raw: 73.2 / WinsM: 55.5 / Norm: 92.8) is a 31.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Ev. Harrison (Raw: 41.5 / WinsM: 55.5 / Norm: 61.0). Win probability: 2025 Castle 91.82%, 2025 Ev. Harrison 8.18%. 2025 Vincennes (Raw: 63.7 / WinsM: 55.5 / Norm: 83.3) is a 13.0-point favorite vs. 2025 Ev. Central (Raw: 50.4 / WinsM: 55.5 / Norm: 69.9). Win probability: 2025 Vincennes 73.06%, 2025 Ev. Central 26.94%. 2025 Ev. Memorial (Raw: 78.8 / WinsM: 55.5 / Norm: 98.3) is a 6.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Ev. Mater Dei (Raw: 72.3 / WinsM: 55.5 / Norm: 91.8). Win probability: 2025 Ev. Memorial 62.22%, 2025 Ev. Mater Dei 37.78%. 2025 Ev. Reitz (Raw: 70.7 / WinsM: 55.5 / Norm: 90.2) vs. 2025 Ev. North (Raw: 70.6 / WinsM: 55.5 / Norm: 90.1) is predicted as a DRAW. Win probability: 2025 Ev. Reitz 50%, 2025 Ev. North 50%.

So one thing I noticed while updating the Predict a Matchup Tool (shameless plug, I know), is there is currently negative homefield advantage in Jeff Sagarin's latest ratings. It's less than 0.2 points (0.15, actually) after three games. This means that the visitors have, so far, outscored the home teams. Historical data says it's not likely to remain that way. Still interesting, nonetheless! Home Field Advantage by Year (excluding 2020): ================================================ 1999: 1.15 2000: 0.93 2001: 1.22 2002: 1.19 2003: 0.84 2004: 1.07 2005: 1.34 2006: 0.89 2007: 1.45 2008: 1.53 2009: 0.89 2010: 2.06 2011: 1.63 2012: 1.67 2013: 1.68 2014: 0.83 2015: 1.06 2016: 1.28 2017: 1.65 2018: 1.73 2019: 1.33 2021: 1.27 2022: 1.49 2023: 2.05 2024: 0.97 2025: -0.15 ================================================ Number of years processed: 26 Average Home Field Advantage: 1.2712

Thanks DK!

Chatard's best players have played two ways, linemen included.

If you're going to use TGD as a billboard, please include a few lines from the story to encourage discussion on your topics. Great work by the way!

Any updates?

Great read. Story idea: your best (or worst) Saturday morning film exchange story. One of our rivals "mistakenly" recorded a game film over a very adult video and didn't fully dubb over a steamy scene.

Calpreps supposedly looks at every game in the country but I have my doubts about its accuracy. I understand the criticisms of Sagarin. But try to look at it for what it is, a measurement of performance in games with Indiana teams against Indiana teams, so out of state games don't count. TW did a study about 15 years ago that showed Sagarin predicting playoff games around 80 percent accuracy. When you realize that a good percentage of games are won by less than a field goal, that's a very high level of statistical accuracy. It's the best we have and was good enough for the BCS and NCAA for 25 years.