2024 6A Who can win it all?

[Boilernation]

5 minutes ago, Boilernation said:

Yeah, I too thought Brownsburg was the best team last year. Feels like they are Georgia pre-Kirby Smart. interesting early season test for Brownsburg and Bishop Dwnger.  Same for Carmel vs. Homestead. We'll see if Carmel is officially no longer a top dog in Hamilton County. Wasn't Homestead really young last year? IIRC, they had a Sophomore at QB and a lot of younger starters when I saw them play Noblesville.

With Snider in Sectional 2 we could see a few Duneland vs. SAC playoff games. Any DAC team that loses should ask themselves if the SAC team was better prepared by scheduling an Indy team. Unless that team from Arizona that Crown Point is playing is really good. I have no clue about them.

Nevermind. I forgot Dwenger is dropping to 4A. 

[BTF]

6 hours ago, Boilernation said:

Yeah, I too thought Brownsburg was the best team last year. Feels like they are Georgia pre-Kirby Smart. interesting early season test for Brownsburg and Bishop Dwnger.  Same for Carmel vs. Homestead. We'll see if Carmel is officially no longer a top dog in Hamilton County. Wasn't Homestead really young last year? IIRC, they had a Sophomore at QB and a lot of younger starters when I saw them play Noblesville.

With Snider in Sectional 2 we could see a few Duneland vs. SAC playoff games. Any DAC team that loses should ask themselves if the SAC team was better prepared by scheduling an Indy team. Unless that team from Arizona that Crown Point is playing is really good. I have no clue about them.

Correct about Homestead's quarterback, he's supposed to be pretty good. I'm not surprised as the Spartan's have a history of producing some good QB's. Homestead went through their "barely mediocre" stage the last couple of seasons. This could be the year they pull out of it. 

The Duneland will see one SAC team. Homestead is heading south like normal. Odds of them getting out of that sectional isn't very good. Snider and Carroll, who both look to be good, are in the same sectional. One will take the other out, leaving one SAC team for the regionals (unless it's Elkhart). 

[temptation]

12 hours ago, BTF said:

I don't think I've ever felt for a program 120 miles away like I did for Brownsburg last year. I felt like they were the best team in the state, but unfortunately couldn't seal the deal. I can only imagine that propelled the underclassmen to work their butts off in in the off season. It will be interesting to see how they respond. If they drop 50 on Dwenger again by halftime in Week 1, they'll launch into my favorite to take state. 

John Hebert's had some mediocre seasons before, only to follow it up with a state title. I'm expecting a win in Week 1 against Homestead, per usual. Week 2 will tell us whether or not they are a contender. 

Coaching overthinking got in the way.  They had BD on the ropes.

[temptation]

12 hours ago, BTF said:

Not going to hold my breath with Mallory. In eleven seasons, seven wins seems to be his plateau. But again. I'll defer to the Indy experts. 

Without documentation to back me up, I'm pretty sure the answer is yes. They've always been the largest schools. 

Your pause on LN is warranted.  They have a had a lot of D1 talent roll through there recently and have little to show for it.  I just have a hunch that they may break through this year.

This sorta surprised me when I was digging for my preseason top 50…

LN has won 3 straight against Warren and has split with BD the last 4 times.

 

[BTF]

3 minutes ago, temptation said:

Coaching overthinking got in the way.  They had BD on the ropes.

Isn't that what happens 75% of the time?

Just now, temptation said:

Your pause on LN is warranted.  They have a had a lot of D1 talent roll through there recently and have little to show for it.  I just have a hunch that they may break through this year.

This sorta surprised me when I was digging for my preseason top 50…

LN has won 3 straight against Warren and has split with BD the last 4 times.

 

They just remind me of Homestead in that they seem to have a level they can't seem to reach over. 

[temptation]

1 minute ago, BTF said:

Isn't that what happens 75% of the time?

I mean I guess you could day so, but needing to bleed the clock late in the game with a two possession lead deep in your own territory and then throwing it at the best cornerback in the state in the process is next level overthinking.

Edited Monday at 12:09 PM by temptation

[BTF]

1 minute ago, temptation said:

I mean I guess you could day so, but needing to bleed the clock late in the game with a two possession lead deep in your own territory and then throwing it at the best cornerback in the state in the process is next level overthinking.

Agree, that game should have been over. 

[temptation]

24 minutes ago, BTF said:

Agree, that game should have been over. 

Yep.  The clock was your best friend and your running back was averaging nearly 7 yards per carry.

[Bash Riprock]

17 hours ago, BTF said:

Not going to hold my breath with Mallory. In eleven seasons, seven wins seems to be his plateau. But again. I'll defer to the Indy experts. 

Without documentation to back me up, I'm pretty sure the answer is yes. They've always been the largest schools. 

Pretty sure NC used to be the largest at one time...perhaps in the 1980's and 90's.  Here is a source from 2001-02 timeframe and NC was third.  (note only 9-11 grades)  NC has never won a state football championship.

https://ihsaapublic.blob.core.windows.net/archive/b-baseball/Assignments20012003.htm

NC was third in the 2017-18 timeframe

https://ihsaapublic.blob.core.windows.net/portals/0/ihsaa/documents/quick resources/021317Enrollments.pdf

But to your point, while I don't believe Carmel, BD and Warren were always the top 3 schools in terms on enrollment while they were winning some of their earlier titles, I understand the point you are trying to make.  I just don't agree its that simple, because if it were, NC would have certainly won some titles.  I do think a culture for football, feeder systems, and coaching comes into play as well.  NC has won multiple titles in sports like basketball, tennis, soccer, etc.  

Anyway, thanks for the conversation.

 

[Bash Riprock]

On 6/21/2024 at 7:42 PM, temptation said:

Nah, I’ll continue to call out ignorance when I see it.  You are an angry old man Bash…you haven’t always been that way.

 

NC is the outlier here as Warren, Carmel and BD (along with Penn which really hurts your argument) have been up there at the top forever.  
 

Also, this thread has now reached 8 pages with me doing most of the talking.

 

NC is an outlier?  Yet, they have won multiple state championships in so many other sports.  They have some really strong coaches in my lifetime such as Streiff, Haste, O'Shea, etc. who have won state football championships at previous schools and just haven't got it done.  If it were purely enrollment and coaching, they would have been more successful in football.  

Perhaps culture for the sport, feeder systems, etc., really do matter.....but hey, if you can't explain it, call it an outlier, right.  Much easier that way.

Angry old man?  Nah, pretty happy dude.  One blessed man!

Curious......can you name any thread where you are NOT doing most of the talking???

[temptation]

35 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

NC is an outlier?  Yet, they have won multiple state championships in so many other sports.  They have some really strong coaches in my lifetime such as Streiff, Haste, O'Shea, etc. who have won state football championships at previous schools and just haven't got it done.  If it were purely enrollment and coaching, they would have been more successful in football.  

Perhaps culture for the sport, feeder systems, etc., really do matter.....but hey, if you can't explain it, call it an outlier, right.  Much easier that way.

Angry old man?  Nah, pretty happy dude.  One blessed man!

Curious......can you name any thread where you are NOT doing most of the talking???

95% of em.  Nothing lower than 4A really grabs my attention.

[BTF]

57 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

Anyway, thanks for the conversation.

Absolutely, always good stuff. 

To be fair though, I've never said that enrollment was the end all be all, just a very strong component. You have have to have an administration that's on board with building a football team. And the head coach has to have passion. All things being equal, higher enrollment gives Team A an advantage over Team B is all I'm saying.  

It's human nature to want to be considered better than others based on hard work alone and not a built in advantage. Kind of like when a man touts that he's "self made", lol. I think that's why some people have a hard time saying, "yeah, we do have an advantage." You naturally want people to think you're successful because you're smarter and work harder. Nick Saban will never say "the reason I have so many championships is due in part because I have better athletes than my competitors." He'll never say that. Just like Belichick will never say, "Tom Brady" was an enormous factor with regard to my success as a head coach. 

Here's another example. Carmel, BD, and WC are top three or top four depending on the year and have 34 titles between them. Teams ranked 14, 15, and 16 in terms of enrollment won't have 34 titles over the next two centuries. Yet said three teams did it over the course of four decades. 

 

[BTF]

2 hours ago, Bash Riprock said:

Pretty sure NC used to be the largest at one time...perhaps in the 1980's and 90's.  Here is a source from 2001-02 timeframe and NC was third.  (note only 9-11 grades)  NC has never won a state football championship.

Per your sources, NC did sneak in there a couple times ahead of Warren Central. But it's also showing Penn and the fifth largest historically. They just happen to rank 4th in state tittles furthering my point. Fishers and Hamilton Southeastern are now Top 10 and are seem to be in the state title conversation in recent years. Fishers is brand new, but HSE was a "guaranteed" game until the growth explosion in their community. 

I think the evidence is right there in front of us if we look. I'm not downplaying what coaches have done at those large enrollment schools. You still have to be good at what you do in order to take a state title. I'm just saying it's a lot easier with 3500+ than it is with 2000. 

[Bullhorn99]

18 minutes ago, BTF said:

but HSE was a "guaranteed" game until the growth explosion in their community. 

Are you saying that at some point in their history, HSE was basically a guaranteed win? A good homecoming opponent?

[BTF]

39 minutes ago, Bullhorn99 said:

Are you saying that at some point in their history, HSE was basically a guaranteed win? A good homecoming opponent?

I retract that statement. I just never heard of them before the mid-2000's, when they started playing 5A ball.  They were a 3A/4A school back then? I just researched it, it looks like they have an impressive win/loss record historically. Not so much success with deep tournament runs outside of a couple of years.  I'm guessing that the Anderson, Fishers, Noblesville area just wasn't overall that good before the growth of the suburbs. 

Edited Monday at 08:24 PM by BTF

[Indiana Fan]

On 6/17/2024 at 6:32 PM, temptation said:

As long as they have a competent administration and promote from within, yes.

I’d assume some “on the job training” has been taking place for some time now…

Who do you suppose this is?

[psaboy]

6 hours ago, BTF said:

I retract that statement. I just never heard of them before the mid-2000's, when they started playing 5A ball.  They were a 3A/4A school back then? I just researched it, it looks like they have an impressive win/loss record historically. Not so much success with deep tournament runs outside of a couple of years.  I'm guessing that the Anderson, Fishers, Noblesville area just wasn't overall that good before the growth of the suburbs. 

2005, HSE took them out. Never heard of them either till then. 

[Bash Riprock]

21 hours ago, BTF said:

Per your sources, NC did sneak in there a couple times ahead of Warren Central. But it's also showing Penn and the fifth largest historically. They just happen to rank 4th in state tittles furthering my point. Fishers and Hamilton Southeastern are now Top 10 and are seem to be in the state title conversation in recent years. Fishers is brand new, but HSE was a "guaranteed" game until the growth explosion in their community. 

I think the evidence is right there in front of us if we look. I'm not downplaying what coaches have done at those large enrollment schools. You still have to be good at what you do in order to take a state title. I'm just saying it's a lot easier with 3500+ than it is with 2000. 

Historically, North Central was the largest school in the state and was routinely in the top 3.  They did "sneak in" perhaps in the 2017 timeframe I showed, but during the 80's and 90's, undoubtedly one of the largest, if not the largest.  Point is with their size being a 3500+ school and a winner of multiple state championships in a variety of sports, they have never won a state football championship.  

I do agree when you compare 3500 to a 2000 person school, that in vast majority of cases that it should be easier.  But we all know there are 3000+ size schools that have not been able to use that size advantage to win championships.  Perhaps that will change in the future, but having great coaches, feeder systems and a culture for the sport matters.  Heck, NC couldn't get competitive with 3 former coaching greats that all multiple state championships at other schools.

[temptation]

20 hours ago, Indiana Fan said:

Who do you suppose this is?

No inkling at all but they handed track over to an assistant and haven’t skipped a beat.

[BTF]

53 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

Historically, North Central was the largest school in the state and was routinely in the top 3.  They did "sneak in" perhaps in the 2017 timeframe I showed, but during the 80's and 90's, undoubtedly one of the largest, if not the largest.  Point is with their size being a 3500+ school and a winner of multiple state championships in a variety of sports, they have never won a state football championship.  

I do agree when you compare 3500 to a 2000 person school, that in vast majority of cases that it should be easier.  But we all know there are 3000+ size schools that have not been able to use that size advantage to win championships.  Perhaps that will change in the future, but having great coaches, feeder systems and a culture for the sport matters.  Heck, NC couldn't get competitive with 3 former coaching greats that all multiple state championships at other schools.

Having great coaches, feeder systems, and a culture for the sport absolutely matters. But so does enrollment, here's why:

From 1980-2016, unless you can prove me otherwise, Carmel, Ben Davis, Warren Central, North Central, and Penn were the five largest schools in the state. During that time period, state championships in the biggest school division are as follows:

Warren Central (9), Ben Davis (8),Carmel (7), and Penn (5). That's 29 state championships in 37 years. Four of the top five enrollment schools ranked 1, 2, 3, & 4 in number of state titles. You really think there's no correlation between enrollments and championships? 

The other eight championships were spread out among six other schools. Center Grove (2), Bloomington South (2), Snider (1), Castle (1), Lawrence Central (1), and Fishers (1). 

Still coincidence? 

You can't win without a good coach and a good culture, no one is arguing that. The argument is simply this: Large enrollment numbers makes it a hell of a lot easier. 

[Rodney]

you people bore me, answer the real questions

how many years for Bellicheck to take asdkfljasdf 1a school to the 6a state championship multiple times in a row.

 

 

oh is this hyperbole?

 

oh is this unachievable because of enrollment? 

 

do tell.

 

I promise I have latched on to this to keep me entertained till August I will not go away quietly

 

all of you cowards will answer my questions, you will stand your ground on enrollment not being important long before I am done.

@KmartGiant the people want to know.

 

 

[temptation]

11 hours ago, Rodney said:

you people bore me, answer the real questions

how many years for Bellicheck to take asdkfljasdf 1a school to the 6a state championship multiple times in a row.

 

 

oh is this hyperbole?

 

oh is this unachievable because of enrollment? 

 

do tell.

 

I promise I have latched on to this to keep me entertained till August I will not go away quietly

 

all of you cowards will answer my questions, you will stand your ground on enrollment not being important long before I am done.

@KmartGiant the people want to know.

 

 

Not sure he’s coming back.

 

[Rodney]

8 minutes ago, temptation said:

Not sure he’s coming back.

 

Why not

[temptation]

3 minutes ago, Rodney said:

Why not

Let me reconsider that statement.

He will likely come back in the event BD gets off to a hot start and starts winning games.

 

[BTF]

17 hours ago, Rodney said:

you people bore me, answer the real questions

how many years for Bellicheck to take asdkfljasdf 1a school to the 6a state championship multiple times in a row.

 

 

oh is this hyperbole?

 

oh is this unachievable because of enrollment? 

 

do tell.

 

I promise I have latched on to this to keep me entertained till August I will not go away quietly

 

all of you cowards will answer my questions, you will stand your ground on enrollment not being important long before I am done.

@KmartGiant the people want to know.

 

 

I think you killed the thread Rodney. I guess you make too much sense.