2024 6A Who can win it all?

[psaboy]

On 7/6/2024 at 4:44 PM, BTF said:

Don't get all giddy about kids being bigger and stronger in Indy. The food and water is no different there than it is anywhere else. But if you want to go down that road, we can talk about which area of the state sends most kids to the NFL per capita. I honestly don't want to go down that road. Let's just look forward to the season and enjoy how it plays out. 

I think the FWA area "per capita" sends a good amount to the NFL?

[Komets2727]

On 7/6/2024 at 9:56 PM, psaboy said:

No, Saban is a good college coach. He sucked in the NFL. So coaching from high school to college and NFL are different. You should know that. If not ask Gary Moller or Lou Holtz 

Saban is a good college coach, not great. Look at his resume other than Alabama, where he paid his players top dollar before NIL started. 

[psaboy]

7 minutes ago, Komets2727 said:

Saban is a good college coach, not great. Look at his resume other than Alabama, where he paid his players top dollar before NIL started. 

Ha, that's the story on the street on why Clemson and Alabama are no longer winning titles year after year, other teams have now caught up to them with NIL money

[BTF]

1 hour ago, psaboy said:

I think the FWA area "per capita" sends a good amount to the NFL?

It's about the same as Indy. One leads the other by a fraction of a percent. 

[BLACKGOLD2007]

On 7/6/2024 at 5:54 PM, temptation said:

Misread your question…yes.  
 

BD with 5 D1 kids and 5 more D2/D3 kids is better than Penn with 10 D2/D3 kids in this hypothetical scenario.

100% agree. I don't understand why Penn struggles with producing D1 players more consistently. Especially on the defensive side of the ball. 

[psaboy]

2 hours ago, BTF said:

It's about the same as Indy. One leads the other by a fraction of a percent. 

Thought it was fairly close.

[Bash Riprock]

On 7/6/2024 at 12:19 PM, BTF said:

So enrollment isn't a factor. Just say it. Programs from the MIC are just better because they do things "different." I concede. 

Never said enrollment has no bearing....just don't agree with your weighting....I agree with FB16 that when a school reaches a certain number, higher numbers lead to diminishing returns.  I also put a higher placement on other variables needed for success.  

You stated the big 3 won 90% of state championships....simply not true based on the data both short and long term.

On 7/6/2024 at 12:19 PM, BTF said:

So enrollment isn't a factor. Just say it. Programs from the MIC are just better because they do things "different." I concede. 

Never said enrollment has no bearing....just don't agree with your weighting....I agree with FB16 that when a school reaches a certain number, higher numbers lead to diminishing returns.  I also put a higher placement on other variables needed for success.  

You stated the big 3 won 90% of state championships....simply not true based on the data both short and long term.

[Bash Riprock]

On 7/6/2024 at 9:52 PM, temptation said:

So Saban at Edinburgh…

If Saban were at Edinburgh, bet there would be a number of move-in's and transfers.  Columbus Schools would feel that big time.  😉

[Footballking16]

On 7/6/2024 at 4:44 PM, BTF said:

Don't get all giddy about kids being bigger and stronger in Indy. The food and water is no different there than it is anywhere else. But if you want to go down that road, we can talk about which area of the state sends most kids to the NFL per capita. I honestly don't want to go down that road. Let's just look forward to the season and enjoy how it plays out. 

Penn is bigger than all but one HCC school (Fishers) and has similar demographics to each of them yet produces D1 talent at a much lower rate. Even bottom feeders like Zionsville, Avon, and Noblesville are producing 1-3 D1 recruits a class. Why is that? 

[Komets2727]

7 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

If Saban were at Edinburgh, bet there would be a number of move-in's and transfers.  Columbus Schools would feel that big time.  😉

Saban paying those transfers thousands of Benjamin’s doesn’t hurt either….

Edited July 9, 2024 by Komets2727

[BTF]

1 hour ago, Footballking16 said:

Penn is bigger than all but one HCC school (Fishers) and has similar demographics to each of them yet produces D1 talent at a much lower rate. Even bottom feeders like Zionsville, Avon, and Noblesville are producing 1-3 D1 recruits a class. Why is that? 

Why Penn isn't producing D1 players at the rate Fort Wayne & Indy do is perplexing to me. Do you have any data, or lack there of, to show that Penn isn't producing? I tried looking it up, but all I get is Penn State information. 

[Footballking16]

7 minutes ago, BTF said:

Why Penn isn't producing D1 players at the rate Fort Wayne & Indy do is perplexing to me. Do you have any data, or lack there of, to show that Penn isn't producing? I tried looking it up, but all I get is Penn State information. 

Per 247 Sports, Penn hasn't had a scholarship football player attend a D1 school since 2018 when they sent Paul Moala to Notre Dame (ended up at FCS Idaho) and Anthony Torres to Western Michigan. Clearly enrollment isn't the issue considering Penn is the 6th largest high school in the state. 

[BTF]

27 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Per 247 Sports, Penn hasn't had a scholarship football player attend a D1 school since 2018 when they sent Paul Moala to Notre Dame (ended up at FCS Idaho) and Anthony Torres to Western Michigan. Clearly enrollment isn't the issue considering Penn is the 6th largest high school in the state. 

Enrollment is just part of the equation. I've been saying that since the beginning. I just find it comical that most posters from Indy refuse to acknowledge it. No one is asking for "enrollment is the REASON for our success," only "enrollment is partially what makes us successful in 6A." I don't think that's asking much. C'mon, just say it. Repeat after me. You too Bash. "Enrollment makes a difference at the 6A level." That's all I'm asking. In your mind, it could just be 5% of the equation, who cares. Just repeat the words. 

[Footballking16]

23 minutes ago, BTF said:

Enrollment is just part of the equation. I've been saying that since the beginning. I just find it comical that most posters from Indy refuse to acknowledge it. No one is asking for "enrollment is the REASON for our success," only "enrollment is partially what makes us successful in 6A." I don't think that's asking much. C'mon, just say it. Repeat after me. You too Bash. "Enrollment makes a difference at the 6A level." That's all I'm asking. In your mind, it could just be 5% of the equation, who cares. Just repeat the words. 

I consider enrollment today, especially at the 6A level, irrelevant. As I've stated umpteen times, more than half of 6A has passed the point of diminishing returns when it comes to male student body makeup in relation to fielding a competitive football team. That's not limited to Indy either. 

Edited July 9, 2024 by Footballking16

[BTF]

14 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

I consider enrollment today, especially at the 6A level, irrelevant. As I've stated umpteen times, more than half of 6A has passed the point of diminishing returns when it comes to male student body makeup in relation to fielding a competitive football team. That's not limited to Indy either. 

C'mon. The three largest schools have 28 combined titles since 1978. The rest of the field combined has 18. I'm not asking for much here, just a small amount of acknowledgment. Maybe something like this: "Carmel, Ben Davis, and Warren Central are all great programs, but they have had an enrollment advantage over their competition over the years." I don't think it's that hard to say. 

[Footballking16]

2 minutes ago, BTF said:

C'mon. The three largest schools have 28 combined titles since 1978. The rest of the field combined has 18. I'm not asking for much here, just a small amount of acknowledgment. Maybe something like this: "Carmel, Ben Davis, and Warren Central are all great programs, but they have had an enrollment advantage over their competition over the years." I don't think it's that hard to say. 

6A has been around for 11 seasons and has been dominated by a school who isn't in the top half of enrollment. The three largest schools no longer have a monopoly on enrollment disparity like they did prior to 6A being formed...which is why they no longer dominate the large class. Everybody has caught up and passed the point of diminishing returns in regards to enrollment and correlation to football roster numbers. I've been saying this close to 5 years now. Carmel continues to slide further and further in mediocrity because their enrollment advantage is no longer practical considering there's now 17-18 schools who all have an enrollment nearing or at 3000+. You can say the same thing for Warren who hasn't won a state title in 5 years and has had losing seasons in 3 out of the last 4 years, as well as Ben Davis who just won their first title in 6 years. 

[gonzoron]

25 minutes ago, BTF said:

The three largest schools have 28 combined titles since 1978.

6A hasn't been around since 1978.

[BTF]

12 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

6A has been around for 11 seasons and has been dominated by a school who isn't in the top half of enrollment. The three largest schools no longer have a monopoly on enrollment disparity like they did prior to 6A being formed...which is why they no longer dominate the large class. Everybody has caught up and passed the point of diminishing returns in regards to enrollment and correlation to football roster numbers. I've been saying this close to 5 years now. Carmel continues to slide further and further in mediocrity because their enrollment advantage is no longer practical considering there's now 17-18 schools who all have an enrollment nearing or at 3000+. You can say the same thing for Warren who hasn't won a state title in 5 years and has had losing seasons in 3 out of the last 4 years, as well as Ben Davis who just won their first title in 6 years. 

Your argument doesn't hold water. Since 6A's inception 11 years ago, the three largest schools own seven titles versus Center Grove's four. I'm not buying the "Carmel continues to slide" argument. They have two of the last eight titles. Four titles in the last seventeen years but none the seventeen years before that. 

Wondering why Hamilton Southeastern, Fishers, Noblesville, Avon, Brownsburg, and Westfield have yet to win a 6A title. Their programs aren't as good? Coaching is subpar?

[BTF]

6 minutes ago, gonzoron said:

6A hasn't been around since 1978.

I'm referencing the largest football division since 1978. From 1978-1982, it was 3A. From 1983-1984 is was 4A. From 1985-2012 it was 5A.  

[Footballking16]

4 minutes ago, BTF said:

Your argument doesn't hold water. Since 6A's inception 11 years ago, the three largest schools own seven titles versus Center Grove's four. I'm not buying the "Carmel continues to slide" argument. They have two of the last eight titles. Four titles in the last seventeen years but none the seventeen years before that. 

Wondering why Hamilton Southeastern, Fishers, Noblesville, Avon, Brownsburg, and Westfield have yet to win a 6A title. Their programs aren't as good? Coaching is subpar?

Look at the enrollments of 6A when it was formed compared to now. There's 17-18 mega enrollments now, there wasn't 6-10 years ago. It's why enrollment continues to become less and less relevant. If everybody has the same thing, it's no longer an advantage. 

[BTF]

8 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Look at the enrollments of 6A when it was formed compared to now. There's 17-18 mega enrollments now, there wasn't 6-10 years ago. It's why enrollment continues to become less and less relevant. If everybody has the same thing, it's no longer an advantage. 

Over the last six seasons, the three largest schools all boast at least one title. Center Grove is the only school to break through. 

[Footballking16]

27 minutes ago, BTF said:

Over the last six seasons, the three largest schools all boast at least one title. Center Grove is the only school to break through. 

And you would say that’s because of enrollment? Because in the last 4 seasons, Carmel hasn’t gotten out of sectionals, Warren is under .500 and BD was flirting with it before getting a new head coach. 

[Bash Riprock]

1 hour ago, BTF said:

C'mon. The three largest schools have 28 combined titles since 1978. The rest of the field combined has 18. I'm not asking for much here, just a small amount of acknowledgment. Maybe something like this: "Carmel, Ben Davis, and Warren Central are all great programs, but they have had an enrollment advantage over their competition over the years." I don't think it's that hard to say. 

Explain why NC, who has absolutely been in the top 3 during this period has 0 championships in football, while winning multiple championships in other sports.  I only went back to 1990...BD/Warren/Carmel has won 19 of the 34 championships for 56%....the others have won 15 championships (44%).  That doesn't include teams making it to the state finals which is an accomplishment in itself.  The 3 schools you mention have had hall of fame coaches, talent, great feeders, football cultures, great admin support, top notch facilities, etc.  To narrow it down to enrollment and enrollment only is very narrow.  Heck, Cathedral is a perennial power, has sent more kids to D1 and the pros, and can we agree its not based on enrollment??  

[temptation]

We still doing this?  
 

How’s everyone see the HCC/MIC shaking out?

My thoughts:

HCC:

Tier 1:  Brownsburg, Fishers, Hamilton Southeastern, Westfield 

Tier 2:  Avon, Franklin Central, Noblesville. Zionsville

MIC:  

Tier 1:  Ben Davis, Center Grove, Warren Central

Tier 2:  Carmel, Lawrence North

Tier 3:  Lawrence Central

Tier 4:  North Central, Pike

Edited July 9, 2024 by temptation

[Bash Riprock]

55 minutes ago, BTF said:

Over the last six seasons, the three largest schools all boast at least one title. Center Grove is the only school to break through. 

Break through?  They have as many titles as WC and Carmel combined since the inception of 6A.  And they lost 2 title games to Carmel during this period by a total of 6 points.  They also have more titles than BD over this period.

Its not about bragging about CG, its simply an example that one doesn't have to be in the top 3 for enrollment be a state elite.