2024 6A Who can win it all?

[temptation]

4 hours ago, KmartGiant said:

Truth 3-3. Since Bless stepped down, so did Avon. BD won the past 3 with relative ease, all lopsided too. Avon is a very healthy program and is going to get much better and in a relatively quick time. My whole point for BD scheduling up is for the immediate future. Don't wait for teams to get better, worry about "now". I even think Pike and NC will be somewhat better in the next few years. These teams will always want to play BD regardless. For now, if I am BD I find a couple of Cincinnati schools or Cleveland area school to make the team better now. I know they can win state w/o this, but to be the best, play the best. Pretty simple mantra. They throttled Moeller LY near their home turf. I firmly believe IN needs more top notch out of state games. It shows where you stack up nationally, which is a good thing. Happy fourth of July brothers and sisters.

Wasn’t BD 3-7 just a few years ago? 

Simmons’ 31-28 record was discussed above.

Let’s pump the brakes on the “we’re too good for everybody” talk eh?

2 hours ago, Bash Riprock said:

Just because its a PUBLIC forum, doesn't mean one should respond to every single post...especially if the post was in response to another person's comment. But hey, we all understand you can't seem to help yourself....

Hey, being positive...Happy 4th!

So, how WOULD Nick Saban fare at Edinburgh?

[Staxawax]

5 hours ago, KmartGiant said:

Truth 3-3. Since Bless stepped down, so did Avon. BD won the past 3 with relative ease, all lopsided too. Avon is a very healthy program and is going to get much better and in a relatively quick time.

Not exactly.  Bless coasted into retirement and as a result the program went south. Many quality athletes transferred to other schools (hello Danville)  and started for those schools.  2 of those 3 lopsided losses were on his watch.  Coach Gibson has brought in a new culture and mentality across the board to all sports and it's already showing.

[psaboy]

On 6/17/2024 at 7:38 PM, KmartGiant said:

It's funny I've been on this forum since many of you were in diapers. Haven't posted in years. Just been a long time fan and observer. Outside of Warren, BD, CG and Carmel can any of you prove that the word irrelevant isn't true for the pretenders? Not one of you can. Those 4 schools own 6A and Penn being the only big school in the conversation and they have been irrelevant for way too long. Since the pathetic IHSAA won't seed the big schools. we will continue to get the results we have gotten. Indy champ and some northern chump as runner up. It's never going to change. I compare it to the Carmel girls swimming dominance. Not one team outside of the Indy metro area will ever win a 6A title. Prove me wrong. Original forum poster.

Don't think seeding the big schools will change the end result. 

[KmartGiant]

17 hours ago, temptation said:

Wasn’t BD 3-7 just a few years ago? 

Simmons’ 31-28 record was discussed above.

Let’s pump the brakes on the “we’re too good for everybody” talk eh?

So, how WOULD Nick Saban fare at Edinburgh?

BD was struggling for wins a few years back. They also played CG in back to back semi states in those tough times. Coach Simmons is a great coach and class act. Coach Tom Allen the same. Neither coach at Purdue or Penn St (IU, Ole Miss) and not be a great coach and leader of young men. Records in HS can oftentimes be pointless in regards to the ability of a great coach. Dullaghan had plenty of down years. Still the only Indiana HS FB coach with a national title to his HS resume.

My philosophy for BD playing a national schedule is that you have to do it while the talent is ripe, as it is now. 3 years from now BD could go 3-7. Not now, not while the talent is there. You have to be ready now and play to your level of competition. You have to make a schedule that allows your team the best opportunities to better the team and program. Play the big boys, while your talent is top notch. 

[BLACKGOLD2007]

On 7/3/2024 at 7:12 PM, psaboy said:

If you live the expected life span of a male, I think that that gives you another 40-45 years. I bet you they win one before you pass. Bet you beer, can meet at the Wings Etc. on McKinley when 40 years is up, or sooner when they win one on in next 1 to 20. 

That is right around the corner from my house. Deal. 

[Footballking16]

On 7/3/2024 at 8:51 AM, Bash Riprock said:

Not saying he wasn't a good coach.  His record over 5 years was 31-28 and was using this period to demonstrate in a conversation on this board that being one of the largest 3 schools in 6A doesn't automatically put a school in the 6A championship game.  

Guess I could have used Warren Central's last 3 years under Kirschner (another very good coach) is another example.  Since his return to WC, he is 16-17.  Carmel is 11-9 over the past 2 seasons with first round sectional losses.  

My point being, the largest populated schools, while certainly a benefit, are not a shoe-in to win to the 6A state title.  As good as BD was last year, they had to work their tails off to overcome Brownsburg, Cathedral and CG, winning each game by 3 points, the last one in OT that could have certainly went either way.  Their excellent kicker certainly made a huge difference.  

There seem to be a number of schools in the Indy metro area (and outside the area) that are overcoming the size differential and closing the gap.  CG has done so for years...others now are doing the same.

Spot on

Talent is cyclical, even at the big schools. Have always maintained that once you cross a certain threshold in enrollment, it then becomes irrelevant. There’s now several mega-enrollment schools in Indiana, not just the Big 3. 

Edited Friday at 01:29 PM by Footballking16

[temptation]

24 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Spot on

Talent is cyclical, even at the big schools. Have always maintained that once you cross a certain threshold in enrollment, it then becomes irrelevant. There’s now several mega-enrollment schools in Indiana, not just the Big 3. 

To an extent.  Talent drying up at a place of 4000+ is not the same as having cyclical talent at a school of 2500.  Yes, CG is the outlier here but when you have 250-300+ kids out for football, you can ease the pain of graduation losses a bit easier.

I harped on that 3-7 BD squad but they were likely still a top 20-25 team even in that “down year”…they just played a schedule that did them no favors.  That’s a luxury.

[Footballking16]

37 minutes ago, temptation said:

To an extent.  Talent drying up at a place of 4000+ is not the same as having cyclical talent at a school of 2500.  Yes, CG is the outlier here but when you have 250-300+ kids out for football, you can ease the pain of graduation losses a bit easier.

I harped on that 3-7 BD squad but they were likely still a top 20-25 team even in that “down year”…they just played a schedule that did them no favors.  That’s a luxury.

The lack of D1 talent BD and WC produced for a 2-3 year period a few years back was laughable. That’s cyclical. BD and WC are likely #1 and #2 heading into next season. The amount of talent parallels that.

[temptation]

1 hour ago, Footballking16 said:

The lack of D1 talent BD and WC produced for a 2-3 year period a few years back was laughable. That’s cyclical. BD and WC are likely #1 and #2 heading into next season. The amount of talent parallels that.

I’ll give you that but that’s only part of the equation.  In a pool of 300 players (school of 4000) while you might not always boast top level D1 talent (which is sort of laughable, I agree), you’ll always have enough depth and talent to compete and be a top 20 team.  The record might not be impressive but that’s due to the schedule.

Even BD/Warren’s least talented teams would win all but 2-3 other conferences in the state of Indiana…and that may be an aggressive prediction.

[BTF]

2 hours ago, temptation said:

To an extent.  Talent drying up at a place of 4000+ is not the same as having cyclical talent at a school of 2500.  Yes, CG is the outlier here but when you have 250-300+ kids out for football, you can ease the pain of graduation losses a bit easier.

I harped on that 3-7 BD squad but they were likely still a top 20-25 team even in that “down year”…they just played a schedule that did them no favors.  That’s a luxury.

You're beating a dead horse. If the three largest schools owning 90% of the state titles can't help someone figure it out, then nothing can. 

[temptation]

33 minutes ago, BTF said:

You're beating a dead horse. If the three largest schools owning 90% of the state titles can't help someone figure it out, then nothing can. 

Eh, we are finding some common ground with some on here, the only disagreement lies in what percentage of a team’s success lies in its enrollment figures.

[BDGiant93]

On 7/3/2024 at 7:52 AM, Indiana Fan said:

I’ll never forget the Warren Central beating BD 77-7…or something close to that

76-7 in 2006 and if not for Tandon Doss, it would have been 76-0. Doss returned a kick. I still can't explain that game. BD wasn't going to win, but that was one of the weirdest snowball games I've ever seen. Evans couldn't be stopped that night. Tutsie wanted to put it on BD, too. They did! Took the loss, had a carryover the next week vs. TH North but then won out until a much less lopsided by still awful 42-7 loss in Regional to WC. 

[BDGiant93]

6 hours ago, KmartGiant said:

Dullaghan had plenty of down years. Still the only Indiana HS FB coach with a national title to his HS resume.

My philosophy for BD playing a national schedule is that you have to do it while the talent is ripe, as it is now. 3 years from now BD could go 3-7. Not now, not while the talent is there. You have to be ready now and play to your level of competition. You have to make a schedule that allows your team the best opportunities to better the team and program. Play the big boys, while your talent is top notch. 

Dick Dullaghan lost a total of 42 games at Ben Davis, and 15 were in the first three years. Other than the 1993 season where they lost their last three games to finish 5-4, I'm not sure what down years you're talking about.

As far as the "national schedule" goes and leaving the MIC, that's silly. It seems that recruiters are finding their way to the Westside. I see them every day during the contact periods. Scheduling isn't easy.

 

 

On 7/3/2024 at 12:15 PM, temptation said:

I’m sure he listened.  Seems pretty arrogant.

What makes you say that?

[temptation]

8 minutes ago, BDGiant93 said:

Dick Dullaghan lost a total of 42 games at Ben Davis, and 15 were in the first three years. Other than the 1993 season where they lost their last three games to finish 5-4, I'm not sure what down years you're talking about.

As far as the "national schedule" goes and leaving the MIC, that's silly. It seems that recruiters are finding their way to the Westside. I see them every day during the contact periods. Scheduling isn't easy.

 

 

What makes you say that?

1.  Rando tweeting a high school coach giving advice on scheduling?

2.  BD still needs to remain humble as you said yourself they suffered a lot of graduation losses.  I like the out of state contests just as much as anyone but there are plenty of worthy opponents for the Giants in central Indiana.

[Footballking16]

1 hour ago, BTF said:

You're beating a dead horse. If the three largest schools owning 90% of the state titles can't help someone figure it out, then nothing can. 

The three largest schools don’t enjoy the enrollment disparity they did 15-20 years ago. There was what, 4-5 schools in the state with an enrollment of 3000+ 20 years ago? There’s 13 schools now with an enrollment of 3000+ with 4 or 5 more rapidly approaching that number. It’s why BD/Warren/Carmel are no longer taking turns rotating state titles like they used too, everyone else has caught up.

Edited Friday at 05:23 PM by Footballking16

[temptation]

2 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

The three largest schools don’t enjoy the enrollment disparity they did 15-20 years ago. There was what, 4-5 schools in the state with an enrollment of 3000+ 20 years ago? There’s 13 schools now with an enrollment of 3000+ with 4 or 5 more rapidly approaching that number. It’s why BD/Warren/Carmel are no longer taking turns rotating state titles like they used too, everyone else has caught up.

I think you just inadvertently proved his point.

Most of those other 10 schools have also “caught up” on the field, no?

[Footballking16]

1 minute ago, temptation said:

I think you just inadvertently proved his point.

Most of those other 10 schools have also “caught up” on the field, no?

I don’t believe so. Warren/BD/Carmel have 90% of the large class titles because those 3 have had a massive enrollment disparity for nearly 90% of the time the large class has existed. That’s no longer the case. And it shows. Carmel doesn’t have a state title in 5 years. Warren 6 years. This was BD’s first in 7 years. Nearly half of 6A has crossed the mega-enrollment threshold (3,000 students) to the point enrollment is becoming less and less irrelevant. 20 years from now the Big 3 will simply be looked at as “other schools”.

[BDGiant93]

19 minutes ago, temptation said:

1.  Rando tweeting a high school coach giving advice on scheduling?

2.  BD still needs to remain humble as you said yourself they suffered a lot of graduation losses.  I like the out of state contests just as much as anyone but there are plenty of worthy opponents for the Giants in central Indiana.

I think I misunderstood you. Sorry. I thought you were saying Mann was arrogant.

[Bash Riprock]

42 minutes ago, BTF said:

You're beating a dead horse. If the three largest schools owning 90% of the state titles can't help someone figure it out, then nothing can. 

You keep referencing 90% of largest class state titles.  I am curious how you pulled your data together.  How far back are you going?  Because that is NOT the case since the inception of 6A.   Since 6A BD, WC and Carmel has won 7 of the 11 titles for 64%.  During that period, BD has won 3 titles, WC has won 3, Carmel has won 2.  (played in a total of 5 championship games) What is interesting, a school in NOT in the top 3 has won 4 6A titles. (played in a total of 6 title games)

I went back to 1990-91 season through 2012-13, (last year of 5A as the largest class) and I know that Carmel, BD and WC were NOT always the top 3 schools in terms of enrollment.  I know NC was sometimes in the top 3 during this period with 0 football state championships.  (a number in other sports)  Carmel/BD/Warren won 13 of the 23 state titles.  (57%)  

Overall 1990 - 2024, Carmel/BD/WC won 20/34 state title games for 59%.  Some of those were blowouts, some were very close.  But runner ups over that period included a number of schools to include HSE, CG, Marion, Penn, Lake Central, Portage, Evansville North, Homestead, Valpo, Snider, Bloom South, Pike, LC, Westfield, Carroll, Crown Point, Carmel, etc.  Should we simply disregard those schools since they did not win the final game? Majority of those runner-ups are not close to the top 3 in terms of enrollment.  Should we pretend advancing all the way to the state title game meant so very little because of their enrollment?

Was Penn in the top 3 sized schools when you did your math to come up with 90%  Did you include North Central the years they were in the top 3?

https://www.ihsaa.org/sites/default/files/documents/Football Records Book_0.pdf

 

[temptation]

7 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

I don’t believe so. Warren/BD/Carmel have 90% of the large class titles because those 3 have had a massive enrollment disparity for nearly 90% of the time the large class has existed. That’s no longer the case. And it shows. Carmel doesn’t have a state title in 5 years. Warren 6 years. This was BD’s first in 7 years. Nearly half of 6A has crossed the mega-enrollment threshold (3,000 students) to the point enrollment is becoming less and less irrelevant. 20 years from now the Big 3 will simply be looked at as “other schools”.

I’m not even necessarily talking state titles, simply on the field regular season eye test and boxscores.

Let’s simply use Brownsburg and Ben Davis for the sake of example.

They have played 11 times starting in 2007 according to Harrell.

Brownsburg is 5-6 in those meetings.  The first three of those meetings were between 2007-2011 and Brownsburg was 0-3, losing by an average of 3 touchdowns per game.

They have played 8 times since 2016 and Brownsburg has absolutely exploded in enrollment over the past decade.  The Bulldogs are 5-3 (should be 6-2, lol) in those last 8.

Your last statement is absolutely true and it has already started but Ben Davis couldn’t even find Brownsburg on a map in the 1990s/early 2000s.

 

13 minutes ago, BDGiant93 said:

I think I misunderstood you. Sorry. I thought you were saying Mann was arrogant.

Never.  Huge Russ fan.

[temptation]

11 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

You keep referencing 90% of largest class state titles.  I am curious how you pulled your data together.  How far back are you going?  Because that is NOT the case since the inception of 6A.   Since 6A BD, WC and Carmel has won 7 of the 11 titles for 64%.  During that period, BD has won 3 titles, WC has won 3, Carmel has won 2.  (played in a total of 5 championship games) What is interesting, a school in NOT in the top 3 has won 4 6A titles. (played in a total of 6 title games)

I went back to 1990-91 season through 2012-13, (last year of 5A as the largest class) and I know that Carmel, BD and WC were NOT always the top 3 schools in terms of enrollment.  I know NC was sometimes in the top 3 during this period with 0 football state championships.  (a number in other sports)  Carmel/BD/Warren won 13 of the 23 state titles.  (57%)  

Overall 1990 - 2024, Carmel/BD/WC won 20/34 state title games for 59%.  Some of those were blowouts, some were very close.  But runner ups over that period included a number of schools to include HSE, CG, Marion, Penn, Lake Central, Portage, Evansville North, Homestead, Valpo, Snider, Bloom South, Pike, LC, Westfield, Carroll, Crown Point, Carmel, etc.  Should we simply disregard those schools since they did not win the final game? Majority of those runner-ups are not close to the top 3 in terms of enrollment.  Should we pretend advancing all the way to the state title game meant so very little because of their enrollment?

Was Penn in the top 3 sized schools when you did your math to come up with 90%  Did you include North Central the years they were in the top 3?

https://www.ihsaa.org/sites/default/files/documents/Football Records Book_0.pdf

 

Pretty solid stuff here @Bash Riprock assuming I am allowed to respond.

Just one caveat though…how many of those runner up squads you cited were even close in the title game?  We all know that more often than not, the true 6A state title game takes place WELL before Thanksgiving weekend.

 

[BTF]

Can someone other than Temp, Rodney, or myself on this forum.........especially someone with MIC ties............just please say that "having a higher enrollment number is an advantage." Geeeesh. 

[BTF]

Let's take a look at what transpired in the biggest division prior to 2015. Center Grove has been the outlier since then, and let's be honest, this most recent stretch hasn't been some of BD, WC, and Carmel's best years. So lets shoot for 1978-2014. That's 36 years. We should be able to draw some kind of conclusion from that. Eight schools outside of the Top 5 enrollment schools won the state title. The top 5 enrollment schools took 78% of the titles. I mean, that's practically 8/10. Coincidence I guess. 

From 1999-2007, all nine titles came from within the Top 5 enrollments schools, four of the five being represented (Carmel, BD, WC, and Penn). I think it's hard for anyone to conclude that that's just coincidence. 

This is probably my last post on this topic. I'll just chalk it up as a loss on my end. I can't keep saying the same thing over and over again and try to make the numbers make sense for those who don't understand it. 

Good luck to all programs. 

[Footballking16]

2 hours ago, BTF said:

Can someone other than Temp, Rodney, or myself on this forum.........especially someone with MIC ties............just please say that "having a higher enrollment number is an advantage." Geeeesh. 

Advantage to whom? A school with 2500 people playing against a school with 500 people? Sure

The enrollment gap between the top 3 is drastically closing and has been the last several years, as evidence by the end of dominance among Carmel/WC/BD. There’s enough schools now in 6A that have a big enough enrollment that makes the enrollment talking point irrelevant. Carmel has 5200 kids and is like the 3rd or 4th best team in its own county. 

[Footballking16]

1 hour ago, BTF said:

From 1999-2007, all nine titles came from within the Top 5 enrollments schools, four of the five being represented (Carmel, BD, WC, and Penn). I think it's hard for anyone to conclude that that's just coincidence.

There’s a massive difference between a school with 3500-4000 kids (4-5 schools) and 1500-2000 kids (the rest of 5A) before the 6th class was added. That’s why the Big 3 dominated for so long.
 

There’s now 18 6A schools (out of 32) whose enrollment are all ~3000+. Once you cross a certain threshold in terms of enrollment, the number becomes insignificant. Only X amount of kids can play. If you can’t field a competitive football team with 3000+ kids in your building, you need to look in the mirror.

Simply put, Carmel/Warren/Ben Davis no longer enjoy the massive disparity in enrollment like they use too. And the results the last 6-8 years speak for themselves.