Success Factor Points Update (2025 Season)

[Justasportsfan]

18 minutes ago, CoachMack219 said:

I bolded the parts that feel important to the conversation of success factor and whether or not it "works" or is working. I totally agree that no system is perfect and there will be outliers (like this curious case of Luers). Correct me if I'm wrong but a large part of the idea of the success factor (and the addition of 6A) was "more schools playing for and winning state championships?" If that was "the main goal" of the IHSAA they succeeded, sort of, based on the data I compiled. 

From 2013-2025 (Success Factor Era) there have been 47 different State Champions (42 of them from classes 1A-5A) crowned from classes 1A-6A and 81 different schools have competed in the State Football Finals.

By comparison, from 2000-2012 (the 13 years directly prior to SF) there were 32 different State Champions crowned from classes 1A-5A and 65 different schools competed in the State Football Finals. 

While not perfect, the system is working if the MAIN GOAL is "more schools playing for and winning state championships."

More programs playing at LOS means the sport will continue to grow=more money for everyone... If a program never wins a sectional and has a run to LOS, in their community eyes, thats a successful season. I get traditional powerhouses being upset about moving up without a state title, if your not first, your last..Some teams may have NEVER seen LOS without the SF, it was not intended to help the rich get richer..

Edited December 1, 2025 by Justasportsfan

[23andCounting]

1 hour ago, Justasportsfan said:

More programs playing at LOS means the sport will continue to grow=more money for everyone... If a program never wins a sectional and has a run to LOS, in their community eyes, thats a successful season. I get traditional powerhouses being upset about moving up without a state title, if your not first, your last..Some teams may have NEVER seen LOS without the SF, it was not intended to help the rich get richer..

What was the new transfer rule intended for? 

[foxbat]

3 hours ago, Justasportsfan said:

Its ugly yet SF was created to help programs get their fan base to state when you have a perennial power constantly in their way. I guess the communities of Knox and Twin Lakes think Luers is a 4a program, according to our current SF, they are. A ring is a ring, regardless the color, if a team gets too many too quickly, they move up. Gone are the days of LCC, Luers, and Cathedral winning 4 in a row in the same class..

Forgot Warren Central too.

BTW, when did Cathedral win four in a row in a class?  I see three in a row.  But if we are doing three in a row, we also have to toss in WeBo and Sheridan into that mix along with Lutheran, Chatard, Franklin Central, Roncalli, Center Grove, and Penn.

 

Edited December 1, 2025 by foxbat
removed duplicate entry

[Indiana Native]

It just seems to me there needs to be another layer of measure that includes a look at where the players are coming from.  

I hate to see a program have a 2-3 year run of success, only to get stuck in a higher class for 2 years - or worse yet get stuck there for several years with only moderate success. 

However, if a program is constantly loading their program with non-feeder school 8th graders and/or transfers, it's an entirely different monster.  Not saying it's "wrong", but it's certainly different.

 

[Justasportsfan]

3 hours ago, foxbat said:

Forgot Warren Central too.

BTW, when did Cathedral win four in a row in a class?  I see three in a row.  But if we are doing three in a row, we also have to toss in WeBo and Sheridan into that mix along with Lutheran, Chatard, Franklin Central, Roncalli, Center Grove, and Penn.

 

I was shooting from the hip..for some reason I thought cathedral won 2 in 4a then 2 in 5a..mea culpa..didnt include Warren due to no sf..private schools n a few others are the only programs dealing with fluctuating weight classes..a blessing n a curse I guess..Franklin central..wow..

[crimsonace1]

5 hours ago, 23andCounting said:

What was the new transfer rule intended for? 

Keeping the legislature from sticking its nose into the IHSAA's policies. That was 100% forced by the legislature, whose ears perked up after the Indianapolis Star's columnist only told half the story of a high-profile (and very questionable) transfer in Indy and state leaders (who are generally VERY pro school choice) threatened to get even further involved in IHSAA eligibility decisions. 

[Muda69]

On 11/30/2025 at 2:09 PM, Bobref said:

The success factor is a crude tool for identifying programs that consistently punch above their weight class, and regrouping them with teams that are (presumably) more on their level.

"Crude" is the primary word here.  A true system of promotion and relegation is the obvious answer, and it is far from crude. 

 

[Bobref]

2 minutes ago, Muda69 said:

"Crude" is the primary word here.  A true system of promotion and relegation is the obvious answer, and it is far from crude. 

I would say we have 1/2 of such a system. We promote teams, but we don’t relegate them. How would that work? More importantly, would Frankfort be the top candidate for relegation? 🤣😂

[foxbat]

3 minutes ago, Bobref said:

I would say we have 1/2 of such a system. We promote teams, but we don’t relegate them. How would that work? More importantly, would Frankfort be the top candidate for relegation? 🤣😂

The biggest problem with relegation would be the stigma attached to it.  No one wants to be forced to move down because they don't perform at a level where the norms say that they should be performing ... regardless of whether the norms are correct or not.  If it was made optional, you might have some takers, but I'd bet it'd be a hard sell to get the state coaches/programs as a whole to vote for the relegation part.  And, without something structured in place for a "scoring process," there's no a chance that the state allows folks to "self select."

[Muda69]

5 minutes ago, Bobref said:

I would say we have 1/2 of such a system. We promote teams, but we don’t relegate them. How would that work? More importantly, would Frankfort be the top candidate for relegation? 🤣😂

Of course Frankfort would. It may be a "4A" school by enrollment, but a "2A" school at best in regards to it's football program.  I would even say possibly even 1A.

How would relegation work?  It could start with studying how it is currently done in soccer:  https://www.si.com/soccer/what-is-relegation-in-soccer

FTA:

Quote

Unless they are already in the top division, teams that finish at or near the top of their league are promoted to the division above for the following season. Meanwhile, teams that finish at the bottom are relegated to the division below, effectively swapping places with the promoted clubs.

...

Relegation and promotion serve multiple purposes in soccer, all rooted in maintaining sporting integrity and fairness.

Unlike closed-league systems, where underperforming teams are protected regardless of results, relegation and promotion ensure that success is rewarded while failure has real consequences.

..

On the other hand, relegation acts as a penalty for poor performance, preventing complacency by forcing teams to fight for survival until the very last game.

....

Are you not a fan of "the regular season really meaning something"?   Promotion/relegation has that built in where the current IHSAA tournament structure for the most part does not .

 

3 minutes ago, foxbat said:

 No one wants to be forced to move down because they don't perform at a level where the norms say that they should be performing ... regardless of whether the norms are correct or not.  

AKA, everyone deserves a trophy.  We get it. 

 

[Bobref]

5 minutes ago, Muda69 said:

Are you not a fan of "the regular season really meaning something"?   Promotion/relegation has that built in where the current IHSAA tournament structure for the most part does not .

No argument there. That would be one way to make the regular season more meaningful, though not the easiest (as @foxbat pointed out). A much simpler way is to cut the tournament field in half, so as to require teams to actually accomplish something to earn their way into the postseason.

[oldtimeqb]

13 minutes ago, Muda69 said:

Of course Frankfort would. It may be a "4A" school by enrollment, but a "2A" school at best in regards to it's football program.  I would even say possibly even 1A.

How would relegation work?  It could start with studying how it is currently done in soccer:  https://www.si.com/soccer/what-is-relegation-in-soccer

FTA:

Are you not a fan of "the regular season really meaning something"?   Promotion/relegation has that built in where the current IHSAA tournament structure for the most part does not .

 

AKA, everyone deserves a trophy.  We get it. 

 

I’m aware how pro/rel works in English soccer or “football” as the Brits say. 

The big difference is that the level is set for the entire season. Whether Frankfort is 2A or 4A wouldn’t change weeks 1-9. They already play 1A schools weeks 1 & 2. I don’t know who is in their conference, but those opponents wouldn’t change. 

I’m more familiar with Ev Bosse, who is 2nd lowest in 4A Sagarin. SIAC opponents are 3A, 4A and 5A, even if they were in a lower class for playoffs. 

Are you suggesting schedules should change yearly with class to make pro/rel more effective? 

[Muda69]

18 minutes ago, oldtimeqb said:

I’m aware how pro/rel works in English soccer or “football” as the Brits say. 

The big difference is that the level is set for the entire season. Whether Frankfort is 2A or 4A wouldn’t change weeks 1-9. They already play 1A schools weeks 1 & 2. I don’t know who is in their conference, but those opponents wouldn’t change. 

I’m more familiar with Ev Bosse, who is 2nd lowest in 4A Sagarin. SIAC opponents are 3A, 4A and 5A, even if they were in a lower class for playoffs. 

Are you suggesting schedules should change yearly with class to make pro/rel more effective? 

Possibly.  Conferences are increasingly becoming outdated, and are mostly irrelevant when it comes to the state tournament. 

 

[foxbat]

1 hour ago, Muda69 said:

 

AKA, everyone deserves a trophy.  We get it. 

 

Not at all.  The norm is enrollment-based regardless of whether folks think its right or not.  You heard it this weekend rear it's head when talking about how unfair it is for a team to have to play two classes above their enrollment.  Given that norm many are going to base their votes and make their decisions with that in mind.  A 5A school may well not want to be pushed down to 3A and will take its lumps in 5A ... as I pointed out, due to potential stigma.  It's not about trophies for those that would be forced down a level.  Just like the stigma attached to being kept back, etc.  Yes, some families choose to have their kid held back and some might even welcome the idea of being informed that it's a good alternative, but I'm fairly certain that most like the virtuous action as opposed to a directed action; especially when there's a potential for imparted stigma.

[Muda69]

25 minutes ago, foxbat said:

Not at all.  The norm is enrollment-based regardless of whether folks think its right or not.  You heard it this weekend rear it's head when talking about how unfair it is for a team to have to play two classes above their enrollment.  Given that norm many are going to base their votes and make their decisions with that in mind.  A 5A school may well not want to be pushed down to 3A and will take its lumps in 5A ... as I pointed out, due to potential stigma.  It's not about trophies for those that would be forced down a level.  Just like the stigma attached to being kept back, etc.  Yes, some families choose to have their kid held back and some might even welcome the idea of being informed that it's a good alternative, but I'm fairly certain that most like the virtuous action as opposed to a directed action; especially when there's a potential for imparted stigma.

That is why taking enrollment out of the equation entirely is the way to go.  True promotion/relegation of programs based on their success or failure.   

 

[foxbat]

11 minutes ago, Muda69 said:

That is why taking enrollment out of the equation entirely is the way to go.  True promotion/relegation of programs based on their success or failure.   

 

You can say it, and yes, that's the whole basis behind p/r, but it doesn't make the fact that enrollment is currently burned into the brains of the folks that would likely be the ones that would need to be convinced.  As such, presenting p/r with a way to work within the current confines of enrollment thinking with the expectation that over the years, enrollment would slowly be moved out of the equation, is likely the way to achieve any moves in that direction.  And, while the IHSAA doesn't necessarily need support to do much of anything, p/r is pretty much something they aren't going to touch on their own without significant internal influence ... e.g., Success Factor ... or significant external influence ... e.g., the new transfer policy.  I doubt you'd see the external pressure, unless the state can find a way to squeeze voucher dollars into the equation.  For internal pressure, you need the coaches/programs and that requires figuring out how to work it where it starts alongside of enrollment ... at least in the beginning.

[Muda69]

36 minutes ago, foxbat said:

You can say it, and yes, that's the whole basis behind p/r, but it doesn't make the fact that enrollment is currently burned into the brains of the folks that would likely be the ones that would need to be convinced.  

Then those people need to wise up.  

 

[Sparty]

If we “got rid” of enrollment base as the starting point to “set” classes, how would the classes be set initially?

[Bobref]

26 minutes ago, Sparty said:

If we “got rid” of enrollment base as the starting point to “set” classes, how would the classes be set initially?

Ping pong balls. If it’s good enough for the tournament matchups …

[Muda69]

41 minutes ago, Sparty said:

If we “got rid” of enrollment base as the starting point to “set” classes, how would the classes be set initially?

A starting point:  http://sagarin.com/sports/hsfsend.htm

 

[Indiana Fan]

IHSAA should get rid of conferences. Enforce Districts that are re drawn, aligned with location, success factor and class obviously. Use the district play records to determine seeds within the tournament. Get rid of conference play and meaningless records. Could still have a couple out of district games of course, but use district play to determine seeds for tournaments. Not that hard. Would also help scheduling issues with schools. Probably too much work from the IHSAA though…

[Sparty]

34 minutes ago, Muda69 said:

A starting point:  http://sagarin.com/sports/hsfsend.htm

 

Hypothetically, an Adams Central (2A enrollment if I’m not mistaken, maybe 1A, I’m really not sure) could be in the same class as Brownsburg competing for a football state title?

[Bobref]

13 minutes ago, Indiana Fan said:

IHSAA should get rid of conferences. Enforce Districts that are re drawn, aligned with location, success factor and class obviously. Use the district play records to determine seeds within the tournament. Get rid of conference play and meaningless records. Could still have a couple out of district games of course, but use district play to determine seeds for tournaments. Not that hard. Would also help scheduling issues with schools. Probably too much work from the IHSAA though…

This makes too much sense. Now, if you could just augment it with a tournament that requires some level of regular season success to qualify for postseason play, it would be best of all possible worlds.

[Muda69]

28 minutes ago, Sparty said:

Hypothetically, an Adams Central (2A enrollment if I’m not mistaken, maybe 1A, I’m really not sure) could be in the same class as Brownsburg competing for a football state title?

Yes.  

[kdets89]

Sagarin is a great tool, and I appreciate that it's maintained weekly for Indiana HS football.  But it's an analysis based on correlations, and there simply aren't enough games between big/small schools, or schools from different regions, for it to be used for this purpose.