1A North Semi State: South Adams @ LCC

[Basementbias]

This one intrigues me. South Adams is the #1 ranked team, but are they considered the underdogs in this one? LCC has the tradition and history as well as home field in this one. They are also the defending state champs. I thought South Adams looked pretty nervous last night against Southwood and played much differently than they have all season. Credit to Southwood for pushing them, but I think South Adams played "hesitant" as the favorite. Probably the pressure they put on themselves for collapsing at the same stage last year. Can the Starfires play fast and free this week or will it be the same? What should we expect out of LCC? I know Tipton was good, but Luers beating them yesterday they way they did surprised me.

[temptation]

Not your typical LCC team in my opinion.  Gimme the Starfires comfortably.

[TheStatGuy]

2 hours ago, Basementbias said:

This one intrigues me. South Adams is the #1 ranked team, but are they considered the underdogs in this one? LCC has the tradition and history as well as home field in this one. They are also the defending state champs. I thought South Adams looked pretty nervous last night against Southwood and played much differently than they have all season. Credit to Southwood for pushing them, but I think South Adams played "hesitant" as the favorite. Probably the pressure they put on themselves for collapsing at the same stage last year. Can the Starfires play fast and free this week or will it be the same? What should we expect out of LCC? I know Tipton was good, but Luers beating them yesterday they way they did surprised me.

South Adams is gonna have to put pressure on Barrett and get him out of the pocket. Winamac did get a few sacks, did bat some balls down and picked him off twice but Barrett for the most part was able to stick in pocket.  SA does have some really athletic kids so I think they'll be able to keep up with CC's receivers. 

Arnold will good success imo throwing the ball but SA will have to get some yardage on the ground. 

 

I think SA will win but it wouldn't shock me if LCC won. 

 

[dazed and confused]

10 hours ago, temptation said:

Not your typical LCC team in my opinion.  Gimme the Starfires comfortably.

I wouldn't bet against the defending champs, but LCC not playing 5 games this season will be a lot of experience lost to overcome against a team like SA.

Edited November 15, 2020 by dazed and confused

[foxbat]

Never count out LCC; especially at home.  Pioneer beat LCC at LaRocca back in 2018 in a sectional championship and then moved up to 2A.  The last team to bump off the Knights at home before that was Sheridan, a decade before in 2008, in a sectional contest 34-28. 

With that said, as @dazed and confused points out, LCC missed several games this season due to COVID and, those games also were not all in a row.  As such, LCC's season looked like stop-start-stop-start-stop-start which really can't be good for continuity or getting traction.  Also, the games that were missed were a couple of biggies like Guerin, Tri-West, and a sectional championship due to COVID when an opponent had to drop out.

I'm not sure that SA is considered the underdog in this one as Harrell gives them around 85% to win semi-state.  Similarly, Sagarin is showing a differential, in SA's favor, of some 33 points.  The one advantage, albeit slight, that LCC has on paper is that its schedule strength is the highest in 1A of the remaining teams ... but just thinly over SA.  I think, given the lack of data points and even the data points that do exist being fuzzy in terms of predictive value, if LCC wins, it will likely be more based on sheer grit than on bankable/predictable data points.

[temptation]

Side note:  Even though it was out of their control, I think it’s a bit ridiculous that LCC (said the same thing about Zionsville last week) gets to host the semi-state after receiving a bye the previous week.

I think it should be treated as first/second round matchups are when the pairings are released and they should have to travel.

[foxbat]

34 minutes ago, temptation said:

Side note:  Even though it was out of their control, I think it’s a bit ridiculous that LCC (said the same thing about Zionsville last week) gets to host the semi-state after receiving a bye the previous week.

I think it should be treated as first/second round matchups are when the pairings are released and they should have to travel.

LCC played their very first game of post-season at home and has been on the road for the other/last two.  They've played 1 of 3 at home; one-third.  SA has played 2 of 4 at home; half.  The bye from the week before, in conjunction with Winamac's schedule CAUSED LCC to be on the road against Winamac this past weekend as LCC was considered home team in a game that they didn't even get to play.  Even tossing in the bye/forfeit as a win, both teams played half of their games at home.  Based on IHSAA rules even at half, which is actually being applied, LCC would still be home team ... unless it was last year or next year because the idea of lower/upper bracket alternates each year.

[dazed and confused]

48 minutes ago, temptation said:

Side note:  Even though it was out of their control, I think it’s a bit ridiculous that LCC (said the same thing about Zionsville last week) gets to host the semi-state after receiving a bye the previous week.

I think it should be treated as first/second round matchups are when the pairings are released and they should have to travel.

I don't

 

[temptation]

24 minutes ago, foxbat said:

LCC played their very first game of post-season at home and has been on the road for the other/last two.  They've played 1 of 3 at home; one-third.  SA has played 2 of 4 at home; half.  The bye from the week before, in conjunction with Winamac's schedule CAUSED LCC to be on the road against Winamac this past weekend as LCC was considered home team in a game that they didn't even get to play.  Even tossing in the bye/forfeit as a win, both teams played half of their games at home.  Based on IHSAA rules even at half, which is actually being applied, LCC would still be home team ... unless it was last year or next year because the idea of lower/upper bracket alternates each year.

I get the rule clearly and completely but it still does not change my opinion that the rules should revert to the same criteria used when a team earns a bye (CAUSED by ping pong balls) in the sectional draw.

I think, especially in a sport like football, ESPECIALLY during a Covid year, that the benefit of playing one fewer game FAR outweighs any home field advantage.

[foxbat]

8 minutes ago, temptation said:

I get the rule clearly and completely but it still does not change my opinion that the rules should revert to the same criteria used when a team earns a bye (CAUSED by ping pong balls) in the sectional draw.

I think, especially in a sport like football, ESPECIALLY during a Covid year, that the benefit of playing one fewer game FAR outweighs any home field advantage.

LCC has played FIVE fewer games ... and I can't imagine anyone, especially LCC, considering that a benefit.  Maybe if you were talking about one single game, it might warrant consideration, but I'm pretty sure that there are very few, if any, competitive football teams that would consider not playing in a sectional championship, after having delayed a season and then having a break in the middle of the season, to be any kind of help at all.

[temptation]

30 minutes ago, foxbat said:

LCC has played FIVE fewer games ... and I can't imagine anyone, especially LCC, considering that a benefit.  Maybe if you were talking about one single game, it might warrant consideration, but I'm pretty sure that there are very few, if any, competitive football teams that would consider not playing in a sectional championship, after having delayed a season and then having a break in the middle of the season, to be any kind of help at all.

I just watched Wisconsin come out hungry and on fire after a three week layoff...

In 6A, I just watched a Ben Davis team that lost to Carmel by 22 in the regular season play their JV in the second half of two sectional blowouts and then handle that same Carmel team.

Same in 5A with Zionsville.  Had two weeks to prepare for the regional.

Will LCC be rusty?  Sure, it’s possible.  But it didn’t look that way the other night.  

Health, hunger and freshness is paramount, especially at the 1A level.

I still clearly think South Adams is the superior team but if you don’t think that LCC has an advantage coming into this one based on their sectional folding, you are kidding yourself.

 

Edited November 15, 2020 by temptation

[foxbat]

22 minutes ago, temptation said:

I just watched Wisconsin come out hungry and on fire after a three week layoff...

In 6A, I just watched a Ben Davis team that lost to Carmel by 22 in the regular season play their JV in the second half of two sectional blowouts and then handle that same Carmel team.

Same in 5A with Zionsville.  Had two weeks to prepare for the regional.

Will LCC be rusty?  Sure, it’s possible.  But it didn’t look that way the other night.  

Health, hunger and freshness is paramount, especially at the 1A level.

I still clearly think South Adams is the superior team but if you don’t think that LCC has an advantage coming into this one based on their sectional folding, you are kidding yourself.

 

Which other night?  Winimac? 

In watching LCC at Winimac, a game that LCC won by 5 and which ended with Winamc sitting on LCC's 20 or 25 with a shot at a winning score on the last play of the game, I'd consider the LCC play rusty compared to previous post-season runs ... 2017 notwithstanding.  Did LCC have "flashes of brilliance?"  Possibly.  Did they have flashes of inconsistency?  Most definitely.  Any advantage that LCC has in the upcoming game with SA isn't based on any "perceived" break and "freshness," but on sheer grit and having been, as a program, someone that's "been there, done that."  And anyone who believes that LCC, should they win, did so because they had a bye is kidding themselves and also not giving the LCC program credit for what they are and are capable of.  By the way, I'd consider SA to be healthy, hungry, and as fresh as they need to be every bit as much competitive in this game.  As a matter of fact, given the fact that they missed out facing LCC last season due to being knocked out by Adams Central, I'd consider them to be VERY hungry as they are playing with the ghost of what-could-have-been sitting on their shoulder.  If LCC wins, it will be tied to gutsy play and experience, not a bye.  Should SA win, it will be based on being the better team and due to their persistence in seeing this season through to its maximum end.  In both cases, it will be because of the teams themselves and not any external forces. 

[gonzoron]

...

Edited November 15, 2020 by gonzoron

[foxbat]

1 minute ago, gonzoron said:

It wasn't the "same" Carmel team.

That was @temptationthat quoted that ... not me. 🙂

[gonzoron]

1 hour ago, temptation said:

In 6A, I just watched a Ben Davis team that lost to Carmel by 22 in the regular season play their JV in the second half of two sectional blowouts and then handle that same Carmel team.

It wasn't the same Carmel team

 

Just now, foxbat said:

That was @temptationthat quoted that ... not me. 🙂

fixed it

[temptation]

12 minutes ago, gonzoron said:

It wasn't the same Carmel team

 

fixed it

Oh, I agree, in name only.  Because they played a converted WR at QB due to their starter getting hurt in the sectional against Brownsburg.

Its not a shot at historically great programs like LCC/Ben Davis by saying they were fortunate due to a forfeiture (in LCC’s case) and a JV sectional (in BD’s case).  It’s an honest fact.

Playing one fewer game is an advantage at any level and does not take away from the accomplishment of making the final four but facts are facts.  

It doesn’t have to be all or none. They can have grit, experience and a little luck.

Edited November 15, 2020 by temptation

[gonzoron]

1 minute ago, temptation said:

Playing one fewer game is an advantage at any level and does not take away from the accomplishment of making the final four but facts are facts

Unproven statements are not facts.

[gonzoron]

8 minutes ago, temptation said:

Playing one fewer game is an advantage at any level

Just looking at 1A alone, you feel playing 1 fewer game is an advantage for LCC, but not Winamac, Parke Heritage, Park Tudor, Indiana Lutheran, Madison-Grant and North Central(Farmersburg)? Your theory doesn't hold water.

[temptation]

23 minutes ago, gonzoron said:

Unproven statements are not facts.

Data (which I’m too lazy to look up at this point in time) supports this statement.  Why else would NFL teams battle for the coveted byes annually?

 

16 minutes ago, gonzoron said:

Just looking at 1A alone, you feel playing 1 fewer game is an advantage for LCC, but not Winamac, Parke Heritage, Park Tudor, Indiana Lutheran, Madison-Grant and North Central(Farmersburg)? Your theory doesn't hold water.

Were threads created about those six schools?  Are they playing this weekend?

Would you feel better if I retroactively created threads about those teams?
 

 

 

[foxbat]

11 minutes ago, temptation said:

Data (which I’m too lazy to look up at this point in time) supports this statement.  Why else would NFL teams battle for the coveted byes annually?

 

Were threads created about those six schools?  Are they playing this weekend?

Would you feel better if I retroactively created threads about those teams?
 

 

 

Are you serious?  These are all teams 1A teams, the ones that supposedly benefit the most from byes, that had byes in the post-season, and lost.

The data which, by your own admission you were too lazy to look up, does not support the statement ... especially as it applies to 1A which you specifically claimed it heavily applied to.

 

[southend]

29 minutes ago, temptation said:

Data (which I’m too lazy to look up at this point in time) supports this statement.  Why else would NFL teams battle for the coveted byes annually?

 

Were threads created about those six schools?  Are they playing this weekend?

Would you feel better if I retroactively created threads about those teams?
 

 

 

I absolutely thinking the extra rest Benefits the smaller schools that have several men playing both sides of the ball. Definitely.

[gonzoron]

8 minutes ago, southend said:

I absolutely thinking the extra rest Benefits the smaller schools that have several men playing both sides of the ball. Definitely.

Extra rest equates to a loss of game level conditioning and is a hindrance, rather than a benefit.

[southend]

Just now, gonzoron said:

Extra rest equates to a loss of game level conditioning and is a hindrance, rather than a benefit.

Not when you are 16 years old my friend. Me maybe! You got me there 

[gonzoron]

Just now, southend said:

Not when you are 16 years old my friend. Me maybe! You got me there 

This shows you've never been around student-athletes.

[southend]

2 minutes ago, gonzoron said:

This shows you've never been around student-athletes.

With a statement like this shows you’ve never been physically in shape.