Temp’s Eliminator Poll (Week 12)

[Titan32]

13 minutes ago, foxbat said:

Unless they are in 4A?

Even P&Ps have down years when in the correct class.  They would prefer to have zero down years in the incorrect class.

[tango]

25 minutes ago, Titan32 said:

Even P&Ps have down years when in the correct class.  They would prefer to have zero down years in the incorrect class.

GS has had 5 years of smooth sailing with no p/p in sight until LOS. Why you continue to beat the drum against p/p schools is simply beyond me. BTW, we had plenty of down years from 2011-2015 in 3A. 

[Tippy]

21 minutes ago, tango said:

GS has had 5 years of smooth sailing with no p/p in sight until LOS. Why you continue to beat the drum against p/p schools is simply beyond me. BTW, we had plenty of down years from 2011-2015 in 3A. 

Sagarin Ratings has GS ranked 6th in 4A.  Maybe GS should be in 4A this year.  Chatard should be in 5A. East Central should be in 6A this year.  Lutheran should be in 3A.  Frankfort has been bad for a long time, they should be in 1A.  Nobody seems to be in the right class.  What he says is beyond most people.

[foxbat]

1 hour ago, Titan32 said:

Even P&Ps have down years when in the correct class.  They would prefer to have zero down years in the incorrect class.

The two in 4A was just last week. 

Week before it was another in 4A and three in 2A ... with two in the same sectional. Also doesn't include the p/p on p/p violence.

Week before that, it was another in 4A, two more in 3A, three more in 2A, and at least one charter in 1A.

[Titan32]

1 hour ago, tango said:

GS has had 5 years of smooth sailing with no p/p in sight until LOS. Why you continue to beat the drum against p/p schools is simply beyond me. BTW, we had plenty of down years from 2011-2015 in 3A. 

It’s not about GS…it’s about doing the right thing for Indiana HS football.  I won’t stop until this insanity is fixed. Sorry to high Jack the thread I’ll shut up now.

[Titan32]

31 minutes ago, Tippy said:

Sagarin Ratings has GS ranked 6th in 4A.  Maybe GS should be in 4A this year.  Chatard should be in 5A. East Central should be in 6A this year.  Lutheran should be in 3A.  Frankfort has been bad for a long time, they should be in 1A.  Nobody seems to be in the right class.  What he says is beyond most people.

Not really.  Most people understand and agree with me on this platform.  Enrollment can’t and won’t work….and hasn’t in any state in the union.  Anyone who doesn’t breathe through their mouth understands it.  To defend it is just soft. 

[Tippy]

24 minutes ago, Titan32 said:

Not really.  Most people understand and agree with me on this platform.  Enrollment can’t and won’t work….and hasn’t in any state in the union.  Anyone who doesn’t breathe through their mouth understands it.  To defend it is just soft. 

I don't like class basketball, maybe they should do away with class sports.  I would like that better than enrollment.  The IHSAA thinks enrollment has worked for 50 years.  They are not going to change.  If you hate the system that much, maybe you should move to another state.  Every time the IHSAA does change something, it gets worse.  The IHSAA does not agree with you.  I don't know what else to tell you.  Call the IHSAA and maybe you can get them to get rid of class basketball.

[Titan32]

57 minutes ago, Tippy said:

I don't like class basketball, maybe they should do away with class sports.  I would like that better than enrollment.  The IHSAA thinks enrollment has worked for 50 years.  They are not going to change.  If you hate the system that much, maybe you should move to another state.  Every time the IHSAA does change something, it gets worse.  The IHSAA does not agree with you.  I don't know what else to tell you.  Call the IHSAA and maybe you can get them to get rid of class basketball.

This is comical...I know you get it...well at least I think you do.  It's not about classes, it's about the best way to arrive at them.  Every state in the union recognizes enrollment doesn't work.  And you know it doesn't.

[Tippy]

29 minutes ago, Titan32 said:

This is comical...I know you get it...well at least I think you do.  It's not about classes, it's about the best way to arrive at them.  Every state in the union recognizes enrollment doesn't work.  And you know it doesn't.

There are a lot of things in this world that I find comical.  What does Coach Hart say about enrollment?  It would be interesting to know what all the Indiana High School football coaches have to say about this.

[tango]

GS could easily volunteer to move to 4A or 5A or even 6A. But I bet they won't.

[FastpacedO]

14 hours ago, BTF said:

Those rankings don't mean a hill of beans to me. The project a matchup tool is 50% joke. I'm not sure why you're bringing them up anyway. You said Fishers was better than Snider based on the Homestead matchup. That being the case, then Snider's better than Ben Davis based on the Warren Central matchup. I've been saying it for the past three weeks, throw transitive property out the window, it's not the end all be all. If you want to keep going, we can move on to why Carroll is better than Fishers based on your scenarios. Won't know until the games are played. I'll tell you right now that Ben Davis isn't beating Snider 46-14, lol. Are you aware of the many flaws in the computer ratings? If not, I'd be happy to enlighten you. 

Since you want to enlighten me, I will enlighten you. Before doing so the one and only reason I even threw a predictor up is because you were hung up on "transitive property" which didn't even work in your example. You seem to be really hung up on points. To me points me jack squat just like ranking and even computer projections. The reason transitive property did not work how you wanted: If Italy beat Sweden and Sweden beat France, so by, the transitive property Italy beat France. Now lets apply that here If Fishers beat Homestead and Homestead beat F.W. Snider so by the transitive property Fishers beat F.W. Snider (that would be transitive property even though that is not why I said that). However on your other example transitive property does not work: F.W. Snider beat Warren Central and Ben Davis beat Warren Central (they did not lose) then? Now that I have got that out of the way.

Onto "points", which don't mean anything to me. A win is a win be it by 1, 3, or 45 and a loss is a loss be it 1, 3, or 45. There are so much variables in a game it really doesn't matter. A teams Offense and Defense can play outstanding  and a Kick Off Return can change the game (just one example). When it comes to Calpreps they are not using points to predict an actual score in their model, the points gap determines percentages. If you were to blindly pick a team with the better record or the home team in case of equal records you would have a 69% chance of guessing correctly. Calpreps is hitting at about 85% in Indiana predicting 100% of the games played that still leaves 15% of being incorrect but is better than 50%.

You seem to have been hanging your hat on the F.W. Snider win over Warren Central in week 1. Fact remains Warren Central was 3-6 beating North Central and Pike (which were a given) and the only quality win was against Lawrence Central (who was 4-5). The only reason Warren Central is still alive (now 5-6) in the tournament is because they are in the worst Sectional in 6A with Tech 0-10 (dead last in 6A), Southport 2-9 (30 out of 32 in 6A), and Perry Meridian 2-8 (25 out if 32 in 6A). I don't use Warren Central as a gauge when talking Fishers and F.W. Snider. I would place Snider between 15-20 (Sagarin has them at 20 and Calpreps 26), I would have Fishers at about 12-15 (Sagarin has them at 11 and Calpreps has them at 11). Even though Fishers is out I still have them above Snider their losses were to HSE 2 times (their natural rival whom is really good has a legit shot at 6A North), Westfield (whom also is really good with a legit shot at 6A North), and Brownsburg (who was the top team in 6A until their meltdown in the last 8 minutes of the 4th qtr against Ben Davis).

 

[FastpacedO]

As for Calpreps projection it has Mishawaka as a 58% chance of winning and F.W. Snider 42% chance of winning, about as close as you can get to 50/50. They have Mishawaka favored by 16% it will be interesting to see how it shakes out with their predictor in 5A because 2 out of the 4 games in 5A are 50/50 games.

5A predictor

Bloomington South 84% Evansville North 16%
Decatur Central 77% Whiteland 23%
Valparaiso 58% Merrillville 42%
Mishawaka 58% Snider [R. Nelson] 42%

[FastpacedO]

I might as well post them all so we can come back and look at it. Calpreps percentages of winning for Regionals. 50/50 games Bolded.

1A PLAYOFFS
Adams Central 87% Carroll (Flora, IN) 13%
Lutheran 81% Providence 19%
North Judson 60% Park Tudor 40%
North Decatur 57% Sheridan 43%

2A PLAYOFFS
Bluffton 73% Bishop Luers 27%
Lafayette Central Catholic 58% LaVille 42%
Southmont 58% Eastern Hancock 42%
Triton Central 58% North Posey 42%

3A PLAYOFFS
Heritage Hills 61% Batesville 39%
Bishop Chatard 98% Delta 2%
Gibson Southern 53% Tri-West Hendricks 47%
Knox 60% West Lafayette 40%

4A PLAYOFFS
East Central 96% Reitz Memorial 4%
Leo 74% Mississinewa 26%
New Palestine 90% Mooresville 10%
NorthWood 57% New Prairie 43%

5A PLAYOFFS
Bloomington South 84% Evansville North 16%
Decatur Central 77% Whiteland 23%
Valparaiso 58% Merrillville 42%
Mishawaka 58% Snider [R. Nelson] 42%

6A PLAYOFFS
Crown Point 53% Penn 47%
Ben Davis 80% Cathedral 20%
Hamilton Southeastern 57% Westfield 43%
Center Grove 97% Warren Central 3%

[tango]

10 hours ago, Titan32 said:

It’s not about GS…

Posting a Calpreps projection involving GS and Ev. Memorial in this topic isn't about GS? C'mon.

[BTF]

1 hour ago, FastpacedO said:

As for Calpreps projection it has Mishawaka as a 58% chance of winning and F.W. Snider 42% chance of winning, about as close as you can get to 50/50. They have Mishawaka favored by 16% it will be interesting to see how it shakes out with their predictor in 5A because 2 out of the 4 games in 5A are 50/50 games.

5A predictor

Bloomington South 84% Evansville North 16%
Decatur Central 77% Whiteland 23%
Valparaiso 58% Merrillville 42%
Mishawaka 58% Snider [R. Nelson] 42%

I appreciate your passion for high school football. It's the one thing we all have in common. But I think you're putting too much emphasis on these computer rankings. 

[BLACKGOLD2007]

On 11/5/2023 at 5:34 PM, BTF said:

Lot's of good games. Penn/Crown Point should draw a hell of a crowd. 

A lot of empty seats the last two games. I don't expect a sell out. 

[BTF]

5 minutes ago, BLACKGOLD2007 said:

A lot of empty seats the last two games. I don't expect a sell out. 

Great night for the town of Mishawaka. Two great games within 8 minutes of one another.

[BLACKGOLD2007]

33 minutes ago, BTF said:

Great night for the town of Mishawaka. Two great games within 8 minutes of one another.

I expect Steele Stadium to be packed and rocking

[FastpacedO]

2 hours ago, BTF said:

I appreciate your passion for high school football. It's the one thing we all have in common. But I think you're putting too much emphasis on these computer rankings. 

No just gave a percentage of the predictor and listed all of them so we can see how accurate it comes out. They've been batting at about 85% for the year which is pretty darn solid. I personally go by what I see on the field (teams weakness / strengths) not a computer ranking. I can 100% tell you Calpreps  Computer model bests my guess by about 20-25%. especially later in the year.

[FastpacedO]

Results:

A PLAYOFFS Result 3 out of 4 and 50/50 was spot on close game
Adams Central 87% Carroll (Flora, IN) 13% Result: Adams Central 29 Carroll 0
Lutheran 81% Providence 19% Result: Lutheran 14 Providence 7
North Judson 60% Park Tudor 40% Result: North Judson 44 Park Tudor 26
North Decatur 57% Sheridan 43% Result: Sheridan 24 North Decatur 20

2A PLAYOFFS  Result 2 out of 4 and 50/50 was 2 for 3 on close games
Bluffton 73% Bishop Luers 27% Result: Bishop Luers 15 Bluffton 7
Lafayette Central Catholic 58% LaVille 42% Result: Lafayette Central Catholic 22 LaVille 0
Southmont 58% Eastern Hancock 42% Result: Southmont 41 Eastern Hancock 34
Triton Central 58% North Posey 42% Result: North Posey 28 Triton Central 13

3A PLAYOFFS Result 3 for 3 still awaiting 4th game which is also 50/50 game
Heritage Hills 61% Batesville 39% Result: Heritage Hills 24 Batesville 21
Bishop Chatard 98% Delta 2% Result: Bishop Chatard 35 Delta 6
Gibson Southern 53% Tri-West Hendricks 47% Result: Still waiting
Knox 60% West Lafayette 40% Result: Knox 41 West Lafayette 23

4A PLAYOFFS Result 4 out of 4 50/50 was not completely accurate
East Central 96% Reitz Memorial 4% Result: East Central 47 Reitz Memorial 7
Leo 74% Mississinewa 26% Result: Leo 41 Mississinewa 7
New Palestine 90% Mooresville 10% Result: New Palestine 39 Mooresville 6
NorthWood 57% New Prairie 43% Result: Northwood 38 New Prairie 14

5A PLAYOFFS Result 2 of 4 50/50 was spot on  both misses were 50/50 games
Bloomington South 84% Evansville North 16% Result: Bloomington South 42 Evansville North 21
Decatur Central 77% Whiteland 23% Result: Decatur Central 41 Whiteland 7
Valparaiso 58% Merrillville 42% Result: Merrillville 24 Valparaiso 20
Mishawaka 58% Snider [R. Nelson] 42% Result: Snider [R. Nelson] 19 Mishawaka 18

6A PLAYOFFS Result 3 of 4 50/50 games were spot on the one miss was a 50/50
Crown Point 53% Penn 47% Result: Crown Point 34 Penn 33
Ben Davis 80% Cathedral 20% Result: Ben Davis 27 Cathedral 24
Hamilton Southeastern 57% Westfield 43% Result: Westfield 24 Hamilton Southeastern 21
Center Grove 97% Warren Central 3% Result: Center Grove 14 Warren Central 0

Result: 17-6 73.9% with 1 game remaining.

Definitely better than my percentage would have been.

[temptation]

11 minutes ago, FastpacedO said:

Results:

A PLAYOFFS Result 3 out of 4 and 50/50 was spot on close game
Adams Central 87% Carroll (Flora, IN) 13% Result: Adams Central 29 Carroll 0
Lutheran 81% Providence 19% Result: Lutheran 14 Providence 7
North Judson 60% Park Tudor 40% Result: North Judson 44 Park Tudor 26
North Decatur 57% Sheridan 43% Result: Sheridan 24 North Decatur 20

2A PLAYOFFS  Result 2 out of 4 and 50/50 was 2 for 3 on close games
Bluffton 73% Bishop Luers 27% Result: Bishop Luers 15 Bluffton 7
Lafayette Central Catholic 58% LaVille 42% Result: Lafayette Central Catholic 22 LaVille 0
Southmont 58% Eastern Hancock 42% Result: Southmont 41 Eastern Hancock 34
Triton Central 58% North Posey 42% Result: North Posey 28 Triton Central 13

3A PLAYOFFS Result 3 for 3 still awaiting 4th game which is also 50/50 game
Heritage Hills 61% Batesville 39% Result: Heritage Hills 24 Batesville 21
Bishop Chatard 98% Delta 2% Result: Bishop Chatard 35 Delta 6
Gibson Southern 53% Tri-West Hendricks 47% Result: Still waiting
Knox 60% West Lafayette 40% Result: Knox 41 West Lafayette 23

4A PLAYOFFS Result 4 out of 4 50/50 was not completely accurate
East Central 96% Reitz Memorial 4% Result: East Central 47 Reitz Memorial 7
Leo 74% Mississinewa 26% Result: Leo 41 Mississinewa 7
New Palestine 90% Mooresville 10% Result: New Palestine 39 Mooresville 6
NorthWood 57% New Prairie 43% Result: Northwood 38 New Prairie 14

5A PLAYOFFS Result 2 of 4 50/50 was spot on  both misses were 50/50 games
Bloomington South 84% Evansville North 16% Result: Bloomington South 42 Evansville North 21
Decatur Central 77% Whiteland 23% Result: Decatur Central 41 Whiteland 7
Valparaiso 58% Merrillville 42% Result: Merrillville 24 Valparaiso 20
Mishawaka 58% Snider [R. Nelson] 42% Result: Snider [R. Nelson] 19 Mishawaka 18

6A PLAYOFFS Result 3 of 4 50/50 games were spot on the one miss was a 50/50
Crown Point 53% Penn 47% Result: Crown Point 34 Penn 33
Ben Davis 80% Cathedral 20% Result: Ben Davis 27 Cathedral 24
Hamilton Southeastern 57% Westfield 43% Result: Westfield 24 Hamilton Southeastern 21
Center Grove 97% Warren Central 3% Result: Center Grove 14 Warren Central 0

Result: 17-6 73.9% with 1 game remaining.

Definitely better than my percentage would have been.

17-6 for me also…Temp’s poll coming after today’s 3A game.

[FastpacedO]

4 minutes ago, temptation said:

17-6 for me also…Temp’s poll coming after today’s 3A game.

One thing of note. With Bo Polston back for Decatur Central, that is not great news for 5A. I wasn't sure if he would be coming back when he went down against Whiteland earlier in the year. Decatur Central without Polston was mediocre, with him though they are pretty solid! Bloomington South at Decatur Central should be a good one. I will take the Hawks since they are playing at home with a trip to Lucas Oil.

[temptation]

39 minutes ago, FastpacedO said:

One thing of note. With Bo Polston back for Decatur Central, that is not great news for 5A. I wasn't sure if he would be coming back when he went down against Whiteland earlier in the year. Decatur Central without Polston was mediocre, with him though they are pretty solid! Bloomington South at Decatur Central should be a good one. I will take the Hawks since they are playing at home with a trip to Lucas Oil.

They’ve been on fire.

5A may be the most intruding class.

[BTF]

48 minutes ago, FastpacedO said:

One thing of note. With Bo Polston back for Decatur Central, that is not great news for 5A. I wasn't sure if he would be coming back when he went down against Whiteland earlier in the year. Decatur Central without Polston was mediocre, with him though they are pretty solid! Bloomington South at Decatur Central should be a good one. I will take the Hawks since they are playing at home with a trip to Lucas Oil.

Which games was he out for? Looking at their schedule, they're just a few plays away from a seven loss season (five wins by less than a touchdown). Probably an unfair observation as good teams find ways to win in the end. Scores have been pretty lopsided over the last four weeks though. 

[temptation]

7 minutes ago, BTF said:

Which games was he out for? Looking at their schedule, they're just a few plays away from a seven loss season (five wins by less than a touchdown). Probably an unfair observation as good teams find ways to win in the end. Scores have been pretty lopsided over the last four weeks though. 

Could not tell ya but backing up my statement above, I think 5A is the only class where you could currently make a case that all four remaining teams have a legitimate chance to hoist the trophy.

No disrespect intended.