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Super Bowl LVIII


Bobref

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We don’t have the final contestants determined quite yet. But we have sufficiently narrowed the field to start a discussion. 

First order of business: Congratulations to Bill Vinovich, selected by the League to wear the white hat. Dependable, unflappable, veteran crew chief. Great choice.

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1 hour ago, Coach Nowlin said:

Vegas has had it Baltimore vs SF since las Feb, the minute the superbowl was completed.....don't see how that changes. 

https://nypost.com/2024/01/23/sports/nfls-referee-decision-opens-themselves-up-to-taylor-swift-theories/

Quote

With Shawn Smith set to be an official at the AFC Championship Game, the odds appear to be in favor of the Chiefs and the Swifties beating the Ravens to advance to the Super Bowl.

From a business standpoint, that outcome is likely music to the NFL’s ears.

Since the assignment was given to Smith, who has a tendency to favor the team on the road, it has been pointed out that the NFL is opening itself up to Taylor Swift conspiracy theories.

“And it certainly doesn’t help with conspiracy theories that the NFL would like nothing more than to see new Chiefs #1 fan Taylor Swift and her legendary fan base of the Swifties in the Super Bowl and buying up all the Super Bowl merchandise,” NFL analyst Warren Sharp wrote on his website.

The Ravens are favored by 3 points for the game in Baltimore on Sunday afternoon.

However, according to Sharp’s data, the numbers change with Smith on the field.

The home team’s win rate drops from 55.9% to 40.8% and the home team goes from covering the spread 50.1% to 37% of the time.

The referee analyst for Sharp’s website also noted that the NFL could have chosen from eight different referees for the game.

...

 

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Articles like that prove how little some people understand how football and officiating work. First, the referee makes very few of the calls in a game. Their attention is so focused on the QB and kickers they often have no idea what the result of a play is. There isn't much they could do to "influence" a game or "favor" one team. Second, the crew he's working with in the playoffs is different than the crew he's working with in the regular season. So any "trends" someone may think to propose wouldn't apply because it's a different set of people. It would be like having Patrick Mahomes as your Pro Bowl QB and then predicting the AFC Pro Bowl defense is likely to give up a lot of points because the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs give up more points than any team in the league.

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1 hour ago, JustRules said:

Articles like that prove how little some people understand how football and officiating work. First, the referee makes very few of the calls in a game. Their attention is so focused on the QB and kickers they often have no idea what the result of a play is. There isn't much they could do to "influence" a game or "favor" one team. Second, the crew he's working with in the playoffs is different than the crew he's working with in the regular season. So any "trends" someone may think to propose wouldn't apply because it's a different set of people. It would be like having Patrick Mahomes as your Pro Bowl QB and then predicting the AFC Pro Bowl defense is likely to give up a lot of points because the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs give up more points than any team in the league.

I am not saying anything in deliberate, but the referee does make calls impacting the QB.  And there is tremendous interpretation that occurs.  For example, how I have witnessed Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford earning roughing the QB calls were very different in the games they played. Is that due to simple variability in how the referee judges the foul...perhaps.  

I have also seen the referee make holding calls (or decide not to throw the flag) and replay will show us if he got it right or not in many of those cases.  Is a missed call deliberate?  I don't think so.  (others may have their own opinion)  Can they be impactful?....absolutely.

Can a referee or any official be influenced by the behavior or reputation of a given player?  Again, perhaps not intentionally, but do I believe certain players get the benefit of the doubt, which can include crunch time....absolutely.  At the end of the day, the referee is human, and not a robot.

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22 hours ago, JustRules said:

Second, the crew he's working with in the playoffs is different than the crew he's working with in the regular season. 

What?  I've been told on this very forum that this kind of thing is anathema, working with different crews.  Blasphemy!

 

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On 1/25/2024 at 1:31 PM, Muda69 said:

What?  I've been told on this very forum that this kind of thing is anathema, working with different crews.  Blasphemy!

 

The point is more about people saying "this crew" or "that crew" calls things a certain way and they expect the same results in the postseason. If there are any tendencies in a crew they wouldn't exist in the post-season because the crew is not Huchuli's crew or Vinovich's crew so there is no connection to the tendency. And the tendency is more likely going to be tied to the games they were randomly assigned to work. The officials perceived performance is often determined by the number of crazy things that happen in the game. For example, in the first 5 plays in the Chiefs-Bills game they had an illegal bat and a missed illegal forward pass. Both are very strange and rare plays. Some games have much tougher calls than others and the more tough plays the more likely there are to be issues, real or perceived.

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On 1/24/2024 at 4:16 PM, Bash Riprock said:

I am not saying anything in deliberate, but the referee does make calls impacting the QB.  And there is tremendous interpretation that occurs.  For example, how I have witnessed Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford earning roughing the QB calls were very different in the games they played. Is that due to simple variability in how the referee judges the foul...perhaps.  

I have also seen the referee make holding calls (or decide not to throw the flag) and replay will show us if he got it right or not in many of those cases.  Is a missed call deliberate?  I don't think so.  (others may have their own opinion)  Can they be impactful?....absolutely.

Can a referee or any official be influenced by the behavior or reputation of a given player?  Again, perhaps not intentionally, but do I believe certain players get the benefit of the doubt, which can include crunch time....absolutely.  At the end of the day, the referee is human, and not a robot.

Over the course of a season a referee may call roughing 5 or 6 times. Holding calls are subjective and involve judgement the fan or media may not understand. It's not just a grasp or a pull. What you think was missed is most likely not a miss. There are several philosophies and training videos to try to be as consistent as possible from official to official and crew to crew. At the HS and college level we have to put the hold into a category. I assume NFL guys use the same or similar philosophies (their defensive holding philosophies are much tighter than ours). It has to be a material restriction at the point of attack and had an impact on the play. Most of the missed holding complaints is missing one of those elements. Even then we could show the same play on video to 10 very good officials and there could be a split of opinion. It's not black and white so there will be some level of judgement. Fans will point to this point and say "see, the official the can pick the one he/she wants to get the outcome he/she wants." That's the last thing on their mind as they are making the decision. I know you won't believe that, but it's a very weird phenomenon. You don't think about which team is involved because you are focused on seeing what you need to see and making the best judgement you can in the moment based on what you saw.

In this context you are correct that mistakes can be made for a variety of reasons, but they are definitely not intentional. They are human and not robots. But the number of blatant misses either way are rare. As the replay experiment with PI showed a few years ago, it creates more problems than it solves. The game is not perfect. The ball bounce funny. Receivers drop passes, defenders take a bad angle, runners carry the ball too loose and drop it. These are all the imperfections that make the game so unpredictable. Perfection is the enemy of great. We have great now and will never achieve perfection.

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13 hours ago, JustRules said:

Over the course of a season a referee may call roughing 5 or 6 times. Holding calls are subjective and involve judgement the fan or media may not understand. It's not just a grasp or a pull. What you think was missed is most likely not a miss. 

As a former player and coach, I understand what holding is and isn’t. The head referee misses holding calls for time to time, especially with non-calls. That is a fact. 
 

All officials do their best, and some are better than others. But like any other human who are considered masters of their craft, they are not without blemish. 
 

Much of the media you downplay are former NFL players and they point out officiating errors through video. Dismissing their views as not understanding the game isn’t credible. 

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1 hour ago, Bobref said:

Unlikely.

Are all officials arrogant?  Officials with law backgrounds only?  Just curious.

Only officials understand the rules....ok....🙄

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1 hour ago, Bash Riprock said:

Are all officials arrogant?  Officials with law backgrounds only?  Just curious.

Only officials understand the rules....ok....🙄

I’ve officiated a thousand football games, and watched several times that many. Therefore, I am fully conversant in how to coach a football team, even though I’ve never actually done it.

Sounds stupid … maybe even a little bit arrogant … don’t you think?

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4 hours ago, Bash Riprock said:

As a former player and coach, I understand what holding is and isn’t. The head referee misses holding calls for time to time, especially with non-calls. That is a fact. 
 

All officials do their best, and some are better than others. But like any other human who are considered masters of their craft, they are not without blemish. 
 

Much of the media you downplay are former NFL players and they point out officiating errors through video. Dismissing their views as not understanding the game isn’t credible. 

I have so many coaches screaming for holding on plays where it is obviously not holding to know coaches don't understand holding as well as they do. Some of that is because at the high school level we also have officials who call very ticky tack holding. We have to do better there.

No official is perfect so you aren't wrong there. But they are also right a lot more than you think. I know it sounds condescending or arrogant to say coaches and players don't know or understand rules, but it's the absolute truth. Everyone assumes because someone played they know the rules, but when I have in depth rules discussions with someone they realize how little actually know. Once I learned I didn't know the rules of football until I became an official I realized I don't know the rules of baseball or basketball as well as I thought I did. That's why I ask officials in those sports when I see something I think is wrong. I always learn something. I was on the board for a local youth league and a situation arose where a runner was not called out when a batted ball hit him as he was running from 2nd to 3rd. I always thought that was an out. Not only did I learn that's not always the case, but it's also different in the various rule sets. HS is different than Babe Ruth is different than Little League is different than American Legion. And baseball and softball have different rules about it. I had two siblings of one of the players get in my face and argue they have been playing X years and were current college players and had never seen that called. Then they called their dad who who had coached for 30 years, and he insisted the umpire was wrong. Guess what? Every baseball umpire I talked to asked me the same question when I presented the scenario. Had the ball passed an infielder when the ball hit the runner? That was a key factor in every rule set and none of the players or coaches arguing had any idea that was a factor.

Here's another great example, there are no fouls for "over the back" or "reaching in" in basketball but you hear announcers use it all the time. But as fans we all believe those acts are fouls.

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1 hour ago, Bobref said:

I’ve officiated a thousand football games, and watched several times that many. Therefore, I am fully conversant in how to coach a football team, even though I’ve never actually done it.

Sounds stupid … maybe even a little bit arrogant … don’t you think?

So true! Knowing what you don't know is often more important than knowing what you do know. I may have some ideas of what i would do if I were a coach, but I know every coach knows more about coaching than I do.

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5 hours ago, Bobref said:

I’ve officiated a thousand football games, and watched several times that many. Therefore, I am fully conversant in how to coach a football team, even though I’ve never actually done it.

Sounds stupid … maybe even a little bit arrogant … don’t you think?

Oh Bob…

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On 1/27/2024 at 11:59 AM, Bobref said:

I’ve officiated a thousand football games, and watched several times that many. Therefore, I am fully conversant in how to coach a football team, even though I’ve never actually done it.

Sounds stupid … maybe even a little bit arrogant … don’t you think?

So the only people that can grasp the rules of football are officials?  Man, was I sure tricked by all the coaches over the years that taught us the game, including rules, techniques to avoid breaking the rules both on the field and at coaching seminars.  

I wonder if coaching legends like Dick Dullghan understand they don't get the rules of the game......that is only reserved by officials. 🙄

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On 1/27/2024 at 1:15 PM, JustRules said:

I have so many coaches screaming for holding on plays where it is obviously not holding to know coaches don't understand holding as well as they do. Some of that is because at the high school level we also have officials who call very ticky tack holding. We have to do better there.

No official is perfect so you aren't wrong there. But they are also right a lot more than you think. I know it sounds condescending or arrogant to say coaches and players don't know or understand rules, but it's the absolute truth. Everyone assumes because someone played they know the rules, but when I have in depth rules discussions with someone they realize how little actually know. Once I learned I didn't know the rules of football until I became an official I realized I don't know the rules of baseball or basketball as well as I thought I did. That's why I ask officials in those sports when I see something I think is wrong. I always learn something. I was on the board for a local youth league and a situation arose where a runner was not called out when a batted ball hit him as he was running from 2nd to 3rd. I always thought that was an out. Not only did I learn that's not always the case, but it's also different in the various rule sets. HS is different than Babe Ruth is different than Little League is different than American Legion. And baseball and softball have different rules about it. I had two siblings of one of the players get in my face and argue they have been playing X years and were current college players and had never seen that called. Then they called their dad who who had coached for 30 years, and he insisted the umpire was wrong. Guess what? Every baseball umpire I talked to asked me the same question when I presented the scenario. Had the ball passed an infielder when the ball hit the runner? That was a key factor in every rule set and none of the players or coaches arguing had any idea that was a factor.

Here's another great example, there are no fouls for "over the back" or "reaching in" in basketball but you hear announcers use it all the time. But as fans we all believe those acts are fouls.

I understand coaches yell out for penalties or complain because ones are called...but is this always because they don't understand rules or could this also be because they didn't have the view to actually see what truly happened?  Could it be both and not always the lack of understanding the game?

BTW, I watched both games yesterday, and listened to both the officiating experts point out what they felt were missed calls...especially with a couple of non-calls.  Example, Dean Blandino pointed out a missed late hit on the QB to the head when he was on the ground...replays confirmed he was right and it should have been a foul.  Officials do make mistakes from time to time....they are indeed human and we can all point to examples.  That is all I am saying.  They do a great job and no one expects them to be error free.

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1 hour ago, Bash Riprock said:

I understand coaches yell out for penalties or complain because ones are called...but is this always because they don't understand rules or could this also be because they didn't have the view to actually see what truly happened?  Could it be both and not always the lack of understanding the game?

BTW, I watched both games yesterday, and listened to both the officiating experts point out what they felt were missed calls...especially with a couple of non-calls.  Example, Dean Blandino pointed out a missed late hit on the QB to the head when he was on the ground...replays confirmed he was right and it should have been a foul.  Officials do make mistakes from time to time....they are indeed human and we can all point to examples.  That is all I am saying.  They do a great job and no one expects them to be error free.

I never said they were perfect. There are going to be a couple calls each game that could have or should have been called differently. There are 160-180 plays per game. If there are 2-3 plays with incorrect calls That's a 98% accuracy rate. That's pretty amazing! The one I saw was I believe was on the other game and Steratore was the rules expert. The QB had scrambled and tackled downfield in the middle of other players. The only view that could likely see that hit was the overhead camera they showed. I don't believe any official would have had a view of that hit. So while they get a downgrade for not calling it, there was nothing they could have done differently to see it. But trying to get replay involved in those kinds of plays would cause more problems than solve as proven by the PI experiment a couple years ago. There are certain types of calls we need to leave with the officials on the field and accept a 98% accuracy rate.

None of this changes the original point of our discussion. As much as you think you understand the rules, you don't know them as well as you think you do. The same is true for coaches and players and TV analysts. They will never have a perfect game, but the number of errors is much smaller than you realize. Since you are a former player and coach I assume you aren't doing either now. I would strongly encourage you to contact some local officials and join us. You may find out how fun and challenging this avocation is. You'll also find out how little you previously understood the rules. They are more complex than you realize but not something you can't easily learn with time and experience. The latter part is critical though because it takes repetition and study to be able to see the nuance of each call. And this goes well beyond fouls and non-fouls. That's a small portion of what we are looking at and judging on every play.

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1 hour ago, JustRules said:

I never said they were perfect. There are going to be a couple calls each game that could have or should have been called differently. There are 160-180 plays per game. If there are 2-3 plays with incorrect calls That's a 98% accuracy rate. That's pretty amazing! The one I saw was I believe was on the other game and Steratore was the rules expert. The QB had scrambled and tackled downfield in the middle of other players. The only view that could likely see that hit was the overhead camera they showed. I don't believe any official would have had a view of that hit. So while they get a downgrade for not calling it, there was nothing they could have done differently to see it. But trying to get replay involved in those kinds of plays would cause more problems than solve as proven by the PI experiment a couple years ago. There are certain types of calls we need to leave with the officials on the field and accept a 98% accuracy rate.

None of this changes the original point of our discussion. As much as you think you understand the rules, you don't know them as well as you think you do. The same is true for coaches and players and TV analysts. They will never have a perfect game, but the number of errors is much smaller than you realize. Since you are a former player and coach I assume you aren't doing either now. I would strongly encourage you to contact some local officials and join us. You may find out how fun and challenging this avocation is. You'll also find out how little you previously understood the rules. They are more complex than you realize but not something you can't easily learn with time and experience. The latter part is critical though because it takes repetition and study to be able to see the nuance of each call. And this goes well beyond fouls and non-fouls. That's a small portion of what we are looking at and judging on every play.

Not sure where your statistics come from, but I never said officials have high error rates.  Never said officiating is easy.

I think its clear I don't understand the rules....nor any coach or player.....only officials.......

By the way, I have some good friends that are officials at the collegiate level....a couple of them played Power 5 football....one of them has a Super Bowl ring.  While they would agree with some of what you state....they are at a very different place in terms of dismissing the knowledge of players and coaches about the rules.

Bottom line, officials are graded for a reason...and like any other profession, some are better than others.

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Just now, Bash Riprock said:

Not sure where your statistics come from, but I never said officials have high error rates.  Never said officiating is easy.

I think its clear I don't understand the rules....nor any coach or player.....only officials.......

By the way, I have some good friends that are officials at the collegiate level....a couple of them played Power 5 football....one of them has a Super Bowl ring.  While they would agree with some of what you state....they are at a very different place in terms of dismissing the knowledge of players and coaches about the rules.

Bottom line, officials are graded for a reason...and like any other profession, some are better than others.

I'm just saying the number of missed called you think you see and the number of missed calls that actually happen are very different numbers. If they weren't you would not be very critical of the work the NFL officials are doing. All your early justifications were based on the observations of coaches, players and announcers. I never said they didn't understand the rules. I'm saying they don't understand them nearly as well as they think they do. But they are the ones that fans take as Gospel so that misunderstanding gets taken as truth. And when an official then tries to explain the rules or a call they get dismissed because it's counter to what this coach or player or announcer said.

Looking back at your initial comments on this topic you were more focused on the influence missed calls have on a game. They may to some extent and some will appear to have a bigger impact depending on the timing. But ultimately there are several things over the course of the game that have an impact and no one play or call determines the outcome of the game. The Lions didn't lose only because Coach Campbell decided to go for it twice on 4th down rather than kick FGs. The great catch off the defender's face mask and fumble on the subsequent drive also played pretty big roles. The receiver catches the pass on the 1st 4th down play and there may have been a very different outcome. But the article that started all this was how much Shawn Smith's crew favored the visiting team, and I pointed out the fallacy of that argument. But people seem to think the crew has any influence in the outcome of the game. There are so many things over the course of the game that do that.

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3 hours ago, Bash Riprock said:

So the only people that can grasp the rules of football are officials?  Man, was I sure tricked by all the coaches over the years that taught us the game, including rules, techniques to avoid breaking the rules both on the field and at coaching seminars.  

I wonder if coaching legends like Dick Dullghan understand they don't get the rules of the game......that is only reserved by officials. 🙄

Now you’re just resorting to putting words in my mouth. I’m confident many coaches have a good understanding of many of the rules of football. It’s not their job to have the nuanced understanding of the rules and their practical application that officials do. So,they don’t. Nothing surprising about it.

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15 hours ago, Bobref said:

Now you’re just resorting to putting words in my mouth. I’m confident many coaches have a good understanding of many of the rules of football. It’s not their job to have the nuanced understanding of the rules and their practical application that officials do. So,they don’t. Nothing surprising about it.

I understood your statement...and the example that you used about not coaching.  While I understand an official may understand the interpretation and applicability of the rules as a "higher level", I don't agree that coaches and players are ignorant to the rules. especially at the NFL level.   

Officials are not equal in terms of their craft and while I absolutely agree they get the vast majority of calls correct, they are human and they do make errors. Thus the application of replays overturning calls at the collegiate and professional levels.

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