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FastpacedO

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Everything posted by FastpacedO

  1. Possibly not, but there will likely be a lot of non Cathedral and non Ben Davis fans at the game. It was a totally different scenario with Evansville Reitz as they brought a huge following. Yes and High school goal posts are 20' tall from ground while NCAA goal posts 30' tall poles from ground. Also High school hash marks are 53'4" from the sidelines while NCAA hash marks are 60' from sidelines. Which can slightly alter alignment set Offensively. I guess for Cathedral they did play earlier in the year at Butler, but I don't think Ben Davis has played on a collegiate field. It may not matter at all when it is all said and done.
  2. I might as well post them all so we can come back and look at it. Calpreps percentages of winning for Regionals. 50/50 games Bolded. 1A PLAYOFFS Adams Central 87% Carroll (Flora, IN) 13% Lutheran 81% Providence 19% North Judson 60% Park Tudor 40% North Decatur 57% Sheridan 43% 2A PLAYOFFS Bluffton 73% Bishop Luers 27% Lafayette Central Catholic 58% LaVille 42% Southmont 58% Eastern Hancock 42% Triton Central 58% North Posey 42% 3A PLAYOFFS Heritage Hills 61% Batesville 39% Bishop Chatard 98% Delta 2% Gibson Southern 53% Tri-West Hendricks 47% Knox 60% West Lafayette 40% 4A PLAYOFFS East Central 96% Reitz Memorial 4% Leo 74% Mississinewa 26% New Palestine 90% Mooresville 10% NorthWood 57% New Prairie 43% 5A PLAYOFFS Bloomington South 84% Evansville North 16% Decatur Central 77% Whiteland 23% Valparaiso 58% Merrillville 42% Mishawaka 58% Snider [R. Nelson] 42% 6A PLAYOFFS Crown Point 53% Penn 47% Ben Davis 80% Cathedral 20% Hamilton Southeastern 57% Westfield 43% Center Grove 97% Warren Central 3%
  3. As for Calpreps projection it has Mishawaka as a 58% chance of winning and F.W. Snider 42% chance of winning, about as close as you can get to 50/50. They have Mishawaka favored by 16% it will be interesting to see how it shakes out with their predictor in 5A because 2 out of the 4 games in 5A are 50/50 games. 5A predictor Bloomington South 84% Evansville North 16% Decatur Central 77% Whiteland 23% Valparaiso 58% Merrillville 42% Mishawaka 58% Snider [R. Nelson] 42%
  4. Since you want to enlighten me, I will enlighten you. Before doing so the one and only reason I even threw a predictor up is because you were hung up on "transitive property" which didn't even work in your example. You seem to be really hung up on points. To me points me jack squat just like ranking and even computer projections. The reason transitive property did not work how you wanted: If Italy beat Sweden and Sweden beat France, so by, the transitive property Italy beat France. Now lets apply that here If Fishers beat Homestead and Homestead beat F.W. Snider so by the transitive property Fishers beat F.W. Snider (that would be transitive property even though that is not why I said that). However on your other example transitive property does not work: F.W. Snider beat Warren Central and Ben Davis beat Warren Central (they did not lose) then? Now that I have got that out of the way. Onto "points", which don't mean anything to me. A win is a win be it by 1, 3, or 45 and a loss is a loss be it 1, 3, or 45. There are so much variables in a game it really doesn't matter. A teams Offense and Defense can play outstanding and a Kick Off Return can change the game (just one example). When it comes to Calpreps they are not using points to predict an actual score in their model, the points gap determines percentages. If you were to blindly pick a team with the better record or the home team in case of equal records you would have a 69% chance of guessing correctly. Calpreps is hitting at about 85% in Indiana predicting 100% of the games played that still leaves 15% of being incorrect but is better than 50%. You seem to have been hanging your hat on the F.W. Snider win over Warren Central in week 1. Fact remains Warren Central was 3-6 beating North Central and Pike (which were a given) and the only quality win was against Lawrence Central (who was 4-5). The only reason Warren Central is still alive (now 5-6) in the tournament is because they are in the worst Sectional in 6A with Tech 0-10 (dead last in 6A), Southport 2-9 (30 out of 32 in 6A), and Perry Meridian 2-8 (25 out if 32 in 6A). I don't use Warren Central as a gauge when talking Fishers and F.W. Snider. I would place Snider between 15-20 (Sagarin has them at 20 and Calpreps 26), I would have Fishers at about 12-15 (Sagarin has them at 11 and Calpreps has them at 11). Even though Fishers is out I still have them above Snider their losses were to HSE 2 times (their natural rival whom is really good has a legit shot at 6A North), Westfield (whom also is really good with a legit shot at 6A North), and Brownsburg (who was the top team in 6A until their meltdown in the last 8 minutes of the 4th qtr against Ben Davis).
  5. Perhaps you're the one not paying attention. Ben Davis only loss came to the hands of IMG Academy (whom F.W. Snider did not play). F.W. Snider's 1 loss came to Homestead whom Fisher's (a team you said you have below Snider) beat. See the difference. For good measure here is a projection for you not using transitive property.
  6. Did F.W. Snider beat IMG Academy in a game we all didn't know about?
  7. Delta runs shotgun spread offensively from what I have seen and look to be a 50 defense.
  8. My understanding is that Arsenal Tech's field is out of commission this year (Tech played their home games at U of I). Also Cathedral has in teh past used Tech as their homefield so would it be a neutral site?
  9. Well the HCC does still have 2 teams still alive that are contenders in Westfield and Hamilton Southeastern. Brownsburg did have Ben Davis on the ropes and stumbled. As for this game Ben Davis presents a lot of major challenges/obstacles for Cathedral both defensively and offensively. Ben Davis has also won the past 14 against Cathedral. The Irish haven't beaten the Giants since 1987, they were close between 2011-2013. They will have to play a terrific game to have a shot.
  10. Honestly they had recovered 5 out of 6 onside kicks prior to that game. One of them against LN should have been Cathedral ball as a LN player touched it and Cathedral recovered but were called for illegal touching. Punting I would have rather seen their QB back their as he sometimes does the quick punt. The execution wasn't there. Against Ben Davis I doubt you would see them onside kick every time their kicker can hit the end zone but has been inconsistent with it. In HS football kicking out of bounds only happens when you don't want to it seems, also the receiving team can elect to have the kicking team re-kick it each time.
  11. Explains a lot, now I know why DT hangs out there. Easier to do his grifting.
  12. Makes sense Homestead 23 F.W. Snider 20 in OT Fishers 42 Homestead 14
  13. 3 straight Road Games for the Chatard Trojans, being Road Warriors. That means if they beat Delta and West Lafayette beats Knox a home game for Chatard in Semi-State. Can Coach Doyle and the AD schedule it at Broad Ripple for old times sake just to get the IHSAA to give the stink eye?!
  14. My guess is it was too windy to try and hit the endzone and the 2 return men for Lawrence North were very fast (I believe one of them Track State champion in the hurdles) likely didn't want to kick to the speed threats. I hadn't felt they stepped back through the season. Offensively they have been very good and got better as the WR's began to gel with QB1 and their RB continued to get better. Defensively they have been very solid against the run, but the secondary has had their struggles. Last night they played terrific defensively all together and the secondary stepped up to play well. Ben Davis will be a challenge for their secondary too. There were a few I would say questionable calls last night that kind of stumped me while watching the game. Specifically the targeting call, the onside kick that was touched by a return team player and called illegal touching by the kicking team, I will give the benefit of the doubt on the safety / fumble recovery TD / forward pass (it definitely was not a Fumble Recovery for TD because the knee went down, was dificult for me to see if he actually tried to throw the ball).
  15. It only counts if afterwards they chanted "bum ba dum bum bum bum bum" Yeah, we've seen a thing or two.
  16. On a change of subject. Am I the only non OSU fan that can't stand putting "the" in front of Ohio State? I always just call them Ohio State Buckeyes. Some (certainly not all) Ohio State fans can be really obnoxious with "the", it is almost like the "small man syndrome". I apologize to the Ohio State fans that aren't obnoxious.
  17. Amen, about the same distance as Brownsburg High School is from the old Avon High School. 😂
  18. I think I would have too, but I bounce back and forth. Their Mr. Football candidate had 167 yards on 25 carries. 3 of his runs were long ones with a 65 yard TD early in the game and a 45 yarder late in the 3rd. He also had a 18 yard first down run. Aside from that Ben Davis really clamped down on him as he had 22 carries for 32 yards. They did try and run the ball and punt after Ben Davis got the pick 6 two times (even mixing in the QB running) and had to punt both times. with far less time than 9 minutes. Judging from the big pass plays they hit on Ben Davis I can see why they tried to sneak one in with 9 minutes to go on 2nd down. The problem was the QB tried to throw short to a WR on Zachary's side and he read it all the way.
  19. Just to clarify Ben Davis was not down 3 scores when the pick 6 happened. It was 25-14 with just under 9 minutes to go.
  20. I don't disagree at all. It was without a doubt. I personally think the OC was looking that hey we have hit some big passes on them and they probably aren't expecting the pass. The biggest problem is it should have been relayed DO NOT throw to Zachary's side of the field. The best option would have been to run and punt. There was definitely a pucker effect after the pick six.
  21. Looking at it Brownsburg RB had 25 carries for 167 yards. He had 1 run that was a 65 yd TD early in the game and another 45 yd TD run. Aside from those 2 runs, he had 23 carries for 57 yards (2.4 ypc). Ben Davis was hemming the run game up pretty well but did let 2 long ones go. The top 2 WR's had 8 catches for 101 yds and 2 catches for 106 yds. I like the thought with Ben Davis gearing to stop the run catch them with a pass, but didn't like the decision to throw to Zachary's side. AFter that though Brownsburg was totally rattled and that was a problem. You are correct though if you run the ball 3 times and punt up 18 BD has to mount 3 drives. Looks as though they were going for the jugular and it didn't work.
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