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Professor sees big Trump win in November

Helmut Norpoth called 2016 for Trump much earlier than almost all.

When most others were predicting a Hillary landslide in 2016, Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth called the election for Trump. He did this months before any other major analyst did the same. Norpoth saw the signs on the wall (like Brexit) that foretold of a populist voter uprising that would sweep the DC establishment and their acolytes out of presidential power.

Now Norpoth, during a Thursday interview with Fox News‘ Laura Ingraham, is predicting that President Donald Trump has a 91% chance of reelection victory. While that seems wildly optimistic to most, except for those who indulge in confirmation bias and confuse what they want to happen for what is actually happening, Norpoth has his record to stand on when almost all other pollsters, research firms, and pundits got it wrong up until the very last minute in 2016.

https://www.lifezette.com/2020/05/professor-sees-big-trump-win-in-november/

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On 6/20/2020 at 9:39 PM, Howe said:

Democrats and their mainstream media propaganda arm worked hard to stop the Trump rally. They even filed a lawsuit to have the rally canceled. They worked even harder at promoting people to burn and loot inner city businesses in Democrat ran cities.

"These people are stone cold crazy" - Donald Trump

Donald Trump standing in front of a crowd: President Donald Trump arrives on stage to speak at a campaign rally at the BOK Center, Saturday, June 20, 2020, in Tulsa, Okla. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

He is 100% correct.

On 6/20/2020 at 10:36 PM, TheStatGuy said:

I don't think a million showed up like you said howe. Hell.. 40,000 didn't show up... Hell... 20,000 didn't even show up. 

6,100 people.

More than that, plus there would have been more if it wasnt for the domestic terrorist groups Black Lives Matter and Antifa showing up and blocking the crowd.  Shows who really is peaceful.

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9 minutes ago, DannEllenwood said:

More than that, plus there would have been more if it wasnt for the domestic terrorist groups Black Lives Matter and Antifa showing up and blocking the crowd.  Shows who really is peaceful.

Tulsa's Fire Marshall said there were 6k people.

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14 hours ago, DanteEstonia said:

Cite your sources; the Epoch Times doesn't count as a source. 

https://www.diversityinc.com/atwg-on-is-it-racism-or-bigotry/

Quote

In my response to a question about Kanye West’s comments about President Bush and his subsequent apologies, I asserted that racism can only flow down a chain of power. This power can be easily defined in economic terms; for example, white households average ten times the wealth of Black households in this country. This is because of roughly 200 years of legalized slavery and another 80 years of Jim Crow laws. The Civil Rights Act and Voting Rights Act (1964/1965) ended most legal racism, and the final major piece of anti-racism legislation passed with the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977so you can say that the beginning of leveling the playing field started 33 years ago, but we still have almost 300 years of lawful racism to overcome as a society.

This definition of racism sparked a lot of reader response, including this thoughtful comment:

I understand the logic behind Luke’s definition but respectfully disagree. I believe that prejudice is about perception, bigotry is about attitude and racism is about actions. If someone is placed under your power and you act in a way to intentionally injure them based on their race it is racism.

The person who posted the comment is a regular contributor to DiversityInc and we enjoy an online friendship, which is highlighted by the fact that we’re both veteransalthough I will note his service extended many more years than mineand he still serves in a civilian capacity. Here is my response:

I understand your logic as well, but I don’t agree. Allow me to pose a scenario: A Black Major assigns a white Captain to stand watch every holiday because she doesn’t like white people. This is about power (a Major outranks a Captain), but is it racism or bigotry I’d say it’s bigotry. In the total scope of our society, no matter how senior a person is (including the president of the United States or the CEO of American Express), the economic conditions of our society, which have sorted themselves out through centuries of oppression based on race, dictate that the power is flowing from the white majority to the Black minority. Therefore, it can only be defined as bigotry.

Suppose the scenario was that the Major is Asian and the Captain is Black I’d still call it bigotry; read up on the Asian Exclusion Act, National Origins Quota, Chinese Exclusion Act, Immigration Act of 1917 and United States v. Bhagat Singh Thind. This scenario has a person from one oppressed group being a bigot toward another member of an oppressed group. There is only one majorityand please don’t be fooled by numbers; although white people will be less than 50 percent of our population in 2043, Black household wealth will not catch up to white household wealth for about 1,000 years at the current rate of closure. Shows you what a head start will dobut, readers, PLEASE don’t e-mail me with your family’s story of individual trial and tribulations. Although they are important parts of our American story, please don’t think your ancestors did it without the help of white privilege. White people had centuries of affirmative action. Read Ira Katznelson’s “When Affirmative Action Was White” for a history lesson.

Where I’m sure we’ll both agree, and what is REALLY important here, is that the Major (in either case) needs to processed out of the Marines. Her behavior is in violation of the UCMJ and is a terrible detriment to unit cohesion, combat readiness and effectiveness. I’m confident that this is what would happen in today’s military; in fact, I’d say that a bigot or racist wouldn’t get too far into basic training, officer’s candidate school or the service academy before being sniffed out and ousted. Unlike the rest of government service, which I would say is now behind corporate culture in general, the military knows that someday you will have to depend on your life on the actions of other people. You cannot tolerate a bigot or racist because in a life-or-death situation, the white door gunner isn’t happy about the lead flying at him because his Black pilot in command was left out in the cold by a racist co-pilot.

Another veteran gave me a good insight: After a talk where I discussed race and trust, a Black man came out of the crowd. He had a Vietnam Veteran pin on his lapel. He asked, “Do you know why you trust Black people” I told him I couldn’t pin down a reason. He asked, “Who fixed your helicopters” The face of the senior chief petty officer in charge of fixing helicopters during the night shift (when most of the heavy repairs were done, and most of my work as a functional test pilot was debriefed) popped into my head: a Black man (who led a very diverse team of skilled mechanics). The Vietnam vet smiled and said, “You trusted your very life on the work of Black people.” He was right and it made me happy to have that insight.

By the way, if you want to read a good book about race, racism and the service, I most highly recommend Ezell Ware’s “By Duty BoundSurvival and Redemption in a Time of War.” Ware retired as a Brigadier General from the California Guard but started his career as an enlisted Marine. The book centers around being shot down and having to survive, resist and evade with a racist in Vietnam.

 

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Tulsa's Fire Marshall must be a Democrat. Trump communications director stated 12,000 went through the turnstiles. Secret Service estimates were between 10 - 12K.

The arena seats 19,000 spectators. It is more than 1/3 full.

f5dca7a7-4654-4931-8a55-a3f8c38baf1a-med

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12 minutes ago, Howe said:

Tulsa's Fire Marshall must be a Democrat. Trump communications director stated 12,000 went through the turnstiles. Secret Service estimates were between 10 - 12K.

The arena seats 19,000 spectators. It is more than 1/3 full.

f5dca7a7-4654-4931-8a55-a3f8c38baf1a-med

I think the fire marshal is a person that just doesn't lie to make the president feel good.

That rally was an utter failure. 

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2 hours ago, DannEllenwood said:

He is 100% correct.

More than that, plus there would have been more if it wasnt for the domestic terrorist groups Black Lives Matter and Antifa showing up and blocking the crowd.  Shows who really is peaceful.

Pierson pointed to the gigantic line and asked “where are the protesters”? The security perimeter, which actually expanded this morning, keeps them very far away. 

There was no antifa or black lives matter groups holding back people going to that rally. Im sure the pictures youll probably share will be edited or not even from the rally but youll believe and push that it was. 

That was brought up by the trump people as an excuse why he didnt have the 40,000+ he was expecting. 

Trump is losing and he knows it. You guys are just so involved in his cult. If Trump said the sky was Green. Youd believe him...even when there's mass evidence its blue. 

Edited by TheStatGuy
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44 minutes ago, DannEllenwood said:

I stand by my assessment.

Ahh yes, the guy that stated Trump will win California and New York.. Wants you to stand by his assessment. 

If you are that ignorant to think that, you shouldn't even be allowed to drive. 

The only way Trump wins either is if Russia interferes again. 

49 minutes ago, Howe said:

You're a damn liar. Look fat, here's the deal.

 

Covid 19 is a hoax. 

We will build and finish the wall. 

Atleast two lies. I can keep going. 

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40 minutes ago, TheStatGuy said:

Fox news poll from 6/13 to 6/16. 

Biden 50. Trump 38. 

RCP average. 

51.2 Biden

41.4 Trump

+/- is 3 to 4 points. 

 

 

Still just means a uni-party candidate will probably win the election.   So that means nothing will really change.

Vote third party.

 

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1 hour ago, TheStatGuy said:

That rally was an utter failure. 

Dr Evil Whatever GIF

59 minutes ago, TheStatGuy said:

Covid 19 is a hoax. 

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/democratic-ad-twists-trumps-hoax-comment/

Trump, Feb. 28: Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus, you know that right? Coronavirus, they’re politicizing it. We did one of the great jobs. You say, “How’s President Trump doing?” They go, “Oh, not good, not good.” They have no clue. They don’t have any clue. They can’t even count their votes in Iowa. They can’t even count. No, they can’t. They can’t count their votes.

One of my people came up to me and said, “Mr. President, they tried to beat you on Russia, Russia, Russia.” That didn’t work out too well. They couldn’t do it. They tried the impeachment hoax. That was on a perfect conversation. They tried anything. They tried it over and over. They’d been doing it since you got in. It’s all turning. They lost. It’s all turning. Think of it. Think of it. And this is their new hoax.

We will build and finish the wall. 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-to-arizona-tuesday-to-mark-milestone-in-border-wall-construction

President Trump is heading to Arizona on Tuesday to spotlight his administration's completion of the 200th mile of border wall construction along the nation’s southern boundary with Mexico.

The president is scheduled to tour the border wall, receive a briefing on construction efforts and take part in a roundtable discussion with local community and elected leaders on border security, all during a visit to Yuma on Tuesday.

 

59 minutes ago, TheStatGuy said:

Atleast two lies. I can keep going. 

1 - He never called the virus a hoax......

2 - The wall IS being built........

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-racial-jungle-quote/

But Trump never said regarding De-Segregation Legislation he was involved with in 1977: "Unless we do something about this, my children are going to grow up in a jungle, the jungle being a racial jungle with tensions having built so high that it is going to explode at some point. We have got to make some move on this."

 

We contacted the Biden campaign for comment but received no response in time for publication.

Biden made the remark in 1977 during a hearing about busing school children in order to desegregate public schools. As The New York Times reported in a detailed delineation of Biden’s history with busing, Biden at the time had emerged as the Democratic party’s crusader against busing, taking the same side as segregationists. Biden “joined up with Jesse Helms, the segregationist senator from North Carolina, to offer his own anti-busing amendment to that year’s education spending bill.” Biden’s “advocacy made it safe for other Democrats to oppose busing,” The Times reported.

The Times further reported that Biden sided with Helms in 1975 when the latter proposed to strip the federal government’s power to withhold funding from school districts that refused to comply with racial-equality measures:

Hidin' Biden and his Racial Jungle.......Wait until this comes out in one of Trump's debates with this guy.....

Again - my take is someway, somehow, Biden is not going to be the nominee after the convention......I'm predicting Cuomo will step in......

 

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9 hours ago, Howe said:

Joe Biden Rally with 25 people.

 

Isnt that... In New Hampshire? 

 

10 hours ago, swordfish said:

Dr Evil Whatever GIF

 

1 - He never called the virus a hoax......

2 - The wall IS being built........

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-racial-jungle-quote/

But Trump never said regarding De-Segregation Legislation he was involved with in 1977: "Unless we do something about this, my children are going to grow up in a jungle, the jungle being a racial jungle with tensions having built so high that it is going to explode at some point. We have got to make some move on this."

 

We contacted the Biden campaign for comment but received no response in time for publication.

Biden made the remark in 1977 during a hearing about busing school children in order to desegregate public schools. As The New York Times reported in a detailed delineation of Biden’s history with busing, Biden at the time had emerged as the Democratic party’s crusader against busing, taking the same side as segregationists. Biden “joined up with Jesse Helms, the segregationist senator from North Carolina, to offer his own anti-busing amendment to that year’s education spending bill.” Biden’s “advocacy made it safe for other Democrats to oppose busing,” The Times reported.

The Times further reported that Biden sided with Helms in 1975 when the latter proposed to strip the federal government’s power to withhold funding from school districts that refused to comply with racial-equality measures:

Hidin' Biden and his Racial Jungle.......Wait until this comes out in one of Trump's debates with this guy.....

Again - my take is someway, somehow, Biden is not going to be the nominee after the convention......I'm predicting Cuomo will step in......

 

Ahh yes. 

Democrats are gonna replace Biden who is more popular then the 2016 nominee and is more popular than the current president but OK. 

They aren't... Either Senator Harris from CA or Val Demings from Florida a member in the house... Will be his VP. 

10 hours ago, Howe said:

Joe Biden Rally with 25 people.

 

Wasn't that from New Hampshire primary all the back in early February in the middle of Winter? 

You are a terrible troll but if you aren't being a troll, you need to look up what you share. 

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