25 Years of Sagarin (6A)

[temptation]

Thanks for board member @hhpatriot04, I thought it may be a worthwhile project to take a look at the last 25 years of Sagarin data and throw some things together to generate some discussion as we await the season.
 

What I have done is taken the last 25 years of Sagarin data (1999-2023) and taken a look at the CURRENT 32 6A schools regardless of prior classification or enrollment and ranked them by average overall Sagarin data over that time period.

What I did for Elkhart (consolidated now) was average Central and Memorial’s data from those years prior to consolidation.

Obviously Fishers was not a school prior to 2006 so they only have 18 years of data.

State champions are highlighted in green.

The second screenshot is a listing of the top 25 6A programs over this time period according to Sagarin.  Teams in green on this sheet won the state championship while teams in red did not.

Enjoy!

Edited July 10, 2024 by temptation

[BTF]

Good work. Do you think the All-Time teams are an accurate measure? For instance: 2015 didn't appear to be a very strong year in 6A. I have a hard top putting that Center Grove team among the all time best. 

[FridayNightLights]

Give me the 2006 Warren Central team over any HS football team to ever play in the state of Indiana. 

[BTF]

14 minutes ago, FridayNightLights said:

Give me the 2006 Warren Central team over any HS football team to ever play in the state of Indiana. 

That seems to be the consensus. Who do we have for an all time Giants squad? 1991?

[IndianaWrestlingGuy1]

Yes. '91 Ben Davis was nasty. Cathedral lost in a barnburner in the 3A Final to Dwenger that year (34-27 on a last minute fumble return for an TD) and I think we lost 42-7 to that Ben Davis team in the first game of the season. Steve Holman was one of the nastiest RBs in state history. The line was the real star of that team though. Both sides.  

[FastpacedO]

14 hours ago, IndianaWrestlingGuy1 said:

Yes. '91 Ben Davis was nasty. Cathedral lost in a barnburner in the 3A Final to Dwenger that year (34-27 on a last minute fumble return for an TD) and I think we lost 42-7 to that Ben Davis team in the first game of the season. Steve Holman was one of the nastiest RBs in state history. The line was the real star of that team though. Both sides.  

Agreed they were nasty! I get it many in the current don't know or don't realize the 1991 Ben Davis Giants and their 26 game win streak and National Championship awarded after they beat Penn for State Championship in 1991. Steve Holman (I believe they called him the Batman if memory serves me correct) was terrific. Ings wasn't too shabby of a QB either. They also had a fantastic kicker, I remember in 1992 watching Cathedral @ Ben Davis and Hines (BDHS) and Ford (CHS) on kickoff kicking it through the uprights, it was amazing to see in person at the time.

I did find this little gem of the 1991 Ben Davis Giants National Championship team (has a great sound track for all the history buffs too) disclaimer some of the film brightness washes out the players.

 

[temptation]

18 hours ago, BTF said:

Good work. Do you think the All-Time teams are an accurate measure? For instance: 2015 didn't appear to be a very strong year in 6A. I have a hard top putting that Center Grove team among the all time best. 

Can’t speak to that specifically though the numbers say 2016 was the best state wide season of the bunch.

The eye test tells me 2006 Warren.  I believe they had double figure guys go D1 though don’t quote me on that.

[temptation]

16 hours ago, BTF said:

That seems to be the consensus. Who do we have for an all time Giants squad? 1991?

Controversial opinion but I’ll take the 2017 BD team…

I can’t take a look at football highlights from any level before the mid 1990’s and say with a straight face those teams could keep up with the strength and speed of today’s athletes.

I’m sure that’ll hurt feelings.

Edited July 11, 2024 by temptation

[FastpacedO]

17 hours ago, BTF said:

Good work. Do you think the All-Time teams are an accurate measure? For instance: 2015 didn't appear to be a very strong year in 6A. I have a hard top putting that Center Grove team among the all time best. 

I am not so sure I would say 2015 wasn't a strong year in 6A. Center Grove's Titus McCoy was a fantastic RB. There were some terrific games in the South Bracket that year. Cathedral (in 6A at the time) lost in 2 OT's 37-34 in a great game to Brandon Peters led Avon at Avon and Center Grove edged out Warren Central 24-13. Then Center Grove in 2 OT's squeaked by Brandon Peters (Indiana Mr. Football and Gatorade Player of the year) led Avon  35-34 at Center Grove. Back to back double OT games for Avon. In the North you had Penn upset a 2 loss Carmel team (Cincy LaSalle and Center Grove) at Penn. Penn lost to CG 28-16. CG and Carmel reloaded and played for State the following year with Camel besting CG in OT 16-13 in a great game. I would say it was a strong year in 2015 for 6A just a little more parity and not one team showing total dominance.

[FastpacedO]

13 minutes ago, temptation said:

Can’t speak to that specifically though the numbers say 2016 was the best state wide season of the bunch.

The eye test tells me 2006 Warren.  I believe they had double figure guys go D1 though don’t quote me on that.

I will agree it is hard for me to not place 2006 or 2003 Warren Central teams among the top. I watched the 2003 Warren Central team absolutely obliterate 2002 and 2003 Ohio Div 1 State Champions Cincinnati Elder 45-20 at the Ryle Classic in Ryle KY. That 2003 WC team let their guard down and lost to Carmel and a shocker to LN. The 2006 WC team though were dominant, hard to believe that was 18 years ago.

[Bobref]

15 minutes ago, FastpacedO said:

I watched the 2003 Warren Central team absolutely obliterate 2002 and 2003 Ohio Div 1 State Champions Cincinnati Elder 45-20 at the Ryle Classic in Ryle KY.

And they were up 50-0 at halftime against Penn in the 5A championship game.

[temptation]

27 minutes ago, FastpacedO said:

I will agree it is hard for me to not place 2006 or 2003 Warren Central teams among the top. I watched the 2003 Warren Central team absolutely obliterate 2002 and 2003 Ohio Div 1 State Champions Cincinnati Elder 45-20 at the Ryle Classic in Ryle KY. That 2003 WC team let their guard down and lost to Carmel and a shocker to LN. The 2006 WC team though were dominant, hard to believe that was 18 years ago.

I think that the out of state contests may hurt the overall rating for a couple of these all-time teams.

12 minutes ago, Bobref said:

And they were up 50-0 at halftime against Penn in the 5A championship game.

I’ll say it again…coulda scored 100.

[BTF]

2 hours ago, FastpacedO said:

I am not so sure I would say 2015 wasn't a strong year in 6A. Center Grove's Titus McCoy was a fantastic RB. There were some terrific games in the South Bracket that year. Cathedral (in 6A at the time) lost in 2 OT's 37-34 in a great game to Brandon Peters led Avon at Avon and Center Grove edged out Warren Central 24-13. Then Center Grove in 2 OT's squeaked by Brandon Peters (Indiana Mr. Football and Gatorade Player of the year) led Avon  35-34 at Center Grove. Back to back double OT games for Avon. In the North you had Penn upset a 2 loss Carmel team (Cincy LaSalle and Center Grove) at Penn. Penn lost to CG 28-16. CG and Carmel reloaded and played for State the following year with Camel besting CG in OT 16-13 in a great game. I would say it was a strong year in 2015 for 6A just a little more parity and not one team showing total dominance.

In 2015, I felt that Snider and New Pal, with those high powered offenses, would have given the 6A title contenders all they could handle. I don't even have that Snider team ranked in the Panther Top 5. I'm not taking anything away from Center Grove, as they've had some great teams. I just think there's some flaws in the Sagarin Ratings, one of them having CG 2015 as one of the states best ever. 

[BTF]

1 hour ago, temptation said:

I think that the out of state contests may hurt the overall rating for a couple of these all-time teams.

I’ll say it again…coulda scored 100.

With the mercy rule in play, I don't want to see 50-0 halftime scores anymore. I want to see teams take a knee when they get close to the endzone. Some teams already do do that, hence a flawed Sagarin system. All in all though, I do appreciate what Sagarin brings to the table. And I do appreciate the work you put into the rankings Temp. 

[temptation]

46 minutes ago, BTF said:

In 2015, I felt that Snider and New Pal, with those high powered offenses, would have given the 6A title contenders all they could handle. I don't even have that Snider team ranked in the Panther Top 5. I'm not taking anything away from Center Grove, as they've had some great teams. I just think there's some flaws in the Sagarin Ratings, one of them having CG 2015 as one of the states best ever. 

According to the research performed in this project, Snider’s top 5 teams of all time are ranked in this order (since 1999 of course).

1.  2004

2.  2016

3.  2001

4.  2002

5.  2015

What do you think?

43 minutes ago, BTF said:

With the mercy rule in play, I don't want to see 50-0 halftime scores anymore. I want to see teams take a knee when they get close to the endzone. Some teams already do do that, hence a flawed Sagarin system. All in all though, I do appreciate what Sagarin brings to the table. And I do appreciate the work you put into the rankings Temp. 

What’s wrong with putting in the JV/freshmen and running dive and trap plays all night?

Edited July 11, 2024 by temptation

[Justasportsfan]

17 minutes ago, temptation said:

According to the research performed in this project, Snider’s top 5 teams of all time are ranked in this order (since 1999 of course).

1.  2004

2.  2016

3.  2001

4.  2002

5.  2015

What do you think?

What’s wrong with putting in the JV/freshmen and running dive and trap plays all night?

The 02 squad maybe top 10..top 5 might be pushing it

[BTF]

3 hours ago, temptation said:

According to the research performed in this project, Snider’s top 5 teams of all time are ranked in this order (since 1999 of course).

1.  2004

2.  2016

3.  2001

4.  2002

5.  2015

What do you think?

Good Lord, you're testing my memory. That's a tough question. Sagarin has the 2016 at #2, I've got them at #7 (last 25 years). Overall I think 2016 ranks 14. 

1.    2004 (Healthy RB)

2.   1986 (Healthy QB)

3.   1992

4.   1981 (Healthy QB)

5.   1998

6.   2002

7.    2001

8.   2015

9.   2023 

10.  2022

11.  1995

12. 1996

13. 1994

14. 2016

[temptation]

13 minutes ago, BTF said:

Good Lord, you're testing my memory. That's a tough question. Sagarin has the 2016 at #2, I've got them at #7 (last 25 years). Overall I think 2016 ranks 14. 

1.    2004 (Healthy RB)

2.   1986 (Healthy QB)

3.   1992

4.   1981 (Healthy QB)

5.   1998

6.   2002

7.    2001

8.   2015

9.   2023 

10.  2022

11.  1995

12. 1996

13. 1994

14. 2016

“You’re testing my memory.”

(Proceeds to go back 43 years.)

Well done.

[BTF]

20 minutes ago, temptation said:

“You’re testing my memory.”

(Proceeds to go back 43 years.)

Well done.

Lol, thanks. Can't say I remember the 1981 team though. I'm just going off stories that I heard. That was the Rod Woodson team. 

[FastpacedO]

5 hours ago, BTF said:

In 2015, I felt that Snider and New Pal, with those high powered offenses, would have given the 6A title contenders all they could handle. I don't even have that Snider team ranked in the Panther Top 5. I'm not taking anything away from Center Grove, as they've had some great teams. I just think there's some flaws in the Sagarin Ratings, one of them having CG 2015 as one of the states best ever. 

There are major flaws in Sagarin especially with teams that have out of State opponents or teams that are locked into only conference teams. I have stating that for years. 

Here are a look at CalPreps Dynasty ratings for Indiana (only did top 25 first photo) and Top Single Season (only did top 25 2nd, 3rd, 4th photo). Note the 2015 CG team came in at #24

[temptation]

46 minutes ago, FastpacedO said:

There are major flaws in Sagarin especially with teams that have out of State opponents or teams that are locked into only conference teams. I have stating that for years. 

Here are a look at CalPreps Dynasty ratings for Indiana (only did top 25 first photo) and Top Single Season (only did top 25 2nd, 3rd, 4th photo). Note the 2015 CG team came in at #24

Good stuff but an absolute slap in the face to Ben Davis.

[BTF]

43 minutes ago, temptation said:

Good stuff but an absolute slap in the face to Ben Davis.

Agree. I appreciate the numbers that are provided for us. It's all for fun anyway. It's hard to tell who really could beat who from one year to the next. All we really know are that some teams from Warren and Ben Davis are at the top. 

[hhpatriot04]

6 hours ago, FastpacedO said:

There are major flaws in Sagarin especially with teams that have out of State opponents or teams that are locked into only conference teams. I have stating that for years. 

Here are a look at CalPreps Dynasty ratings for Indiana (only did top 25 first photo) and Top Single Season (only did top 25 2nd, 3rd, 4th photo). Note the 2015 CG team came in at #24

Sagarin only measures in-state performances.

Those out-of-state games can be played with different rules sets.

Should help you sleep at night.

 

On 7/10/2024 at 3:09 PM, BTF said:

That seems to be the consensus. Who do we have for an all time Giants squad? 1991?

Do you know when Sagarin started his football ratings?

[FastpacedO]

12 hours ago, temptation said:

Good stuff but an absolute slap in the face to Ben Davis.

I should probably also note that Calpreps only goes back to 2003.

[FastpacedO]

7 hours ago, hhpatriot04 said:

Sagarin only measures in-state performances.

Those out-of-state games can be played with different rules sets.

Should help you sleep at night.

I am very well aware of the fact Sagarin only measures in-state performances. It is the single largest flaw of the Sagarin ratings. 

The reason Sagarin only measures in-state performances has absolutely nothing to do with out of state games can be played with different set of rules. With Indiana's travel rules all the states that Indiana could play against are members of the NHFS (Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Missouri). So any changes in rules would be very minor (like running clock that has only recently been used in Indiana).

The reason Sagarin does not measure out of state opponents is because it does not want to gather data of the out of state opponents record and their opponents record etc.

Ultimately it does not matter because Indiana's football tournament is an all in format with no seeding. So you don't need rankings only ping pong balls and a bingo tumbler. Ohio has a terrific computer ranking system. If you want accurate computer rankings, Sagarin is not accurate because not every team in Indiana plays only Indiana schools, it also can become inaccurate when a conference has no out of conference competition.

I sleep perfectly fine every night.