Footballking16

If you can use Sagarin for Indiana teams you can certainly use CalPreps or Massey. In fact, they are already out there. https://masseyratings.com/hsf/in/ratings http://calpreps.com/2022/ratings/Indiana_all.htm

I don't think Sagarin would ever be used for an Indiana qualifying format because it doesn't include Out of State opponents. But there are rating systems very similar to Sagarin; Massey, Calpreps, Harbin, etc.....that all factor out of state competition.

That is true. Sagarin is different each and every year. For point of reference this year, 1-7 Avon who has played the toughest schedule in the state sits just outside the top 16 at 18. Have an outside chance of playing their way in Friday.

Unfortunately don't have my old Mac Book where I could readily pull the bracket from 2019 and not sure GID has the archive like they used too. But I posted what a hypothetical playoff format would look like for that year on here and CG was comfortably in.

There will be several 0-9 teams who will be participating in the postseason spanning all 6 classes. I agree, it's very dumb.

CG finished the regular season 9th in Sagarin that year I believe. They had a killer schedule.

I've only been tracking what a playoff qualifying format using Sagarin would look like since 2015 so I do not have the end of regular season Sagarin ratings for that year, just the final results that Sagarin has archived. Understanding how Sagarin works, beating 255 West Noble and 154 Heritage for Luers first and second wins in the postseason likely wouldn't have been enough to propel Luers from outside the top 32 all the way up to #23. In fact, it probably hurt Luers overall Sagarin ranking if anything. Although I can't say with 100% conviction, I'm 99.9% positive that 0-9 Luers finished in the top half of Sagarin. Now, since I've been tracking this since 2015, I can say with 100% certainty that Luers has made the field every year in a hypothetical format that effectively cuts the field in half and that includes the 2019 team that finished 2-7 and lost in the sectional semi-finals and the 2020 team that finished 3-6 and lost in the state finals.

For reference, the 2013 Luers team who finished the regular season 0-9 and ended 2-10 finished 23rd in Sagarin 3A and that was before Carroll and Homestead were annual additions to the schedule. A Luers team who goes 2-7 or 3-6 playing the schedule they currently do will always finish in the top 32 of class 2A or 3A. http://indianahsfootball.homestead.com/pastfb/2013sagarin.htm#loaded Fact

Oh really? Show me a 2-7 or 3-6 Luers team that finished outside the top half of Sagarin in their respective class. I’ll save you the time, it hasn’t happened. 4-4 Luers is currently ranked 10th in Sagarin.

For years I have advocated for a playoff qualifying format that effectively cuts the field in half at the conclusion of the regular season. This is done regularly in other states. To implement this format: -add tenth regular season game -at conclusion of regular season; use ranking system that accounts for W-L record, Opp W-L record, SOS, and Opp SOS that eliminates the field in half 1-32 1A-4A and 1-16 5A and 6A -Once the field is cut in half, Send the 16 Northern-most teams to one half of the bracket and the 16 Southern-most teams to the other half. Seed 1-16 accordingly where 1 plays 16, 2 plays 15 on the opposite ends of the bracket etc with highest remaining seed hosting until you get to semi-state where games will be hosted at neutral locations I've used Sagarin (as it is readily available) for the last decade to create a mock qualifying tournament with subsequent seeding. In my qualifying format using Sagarin, the above mentioned teams have made it into the field rather easily. I imagine they would make the field in just about every other rating system that uses similar factors.

I know it's not your wording. You questioned whether or not 05 Lowell or Northwood, 21 WeBo and State runner-ups such Zionsville, Luers, CG, Northridge, Kokomo, and LaPorte would have made qualified for the postseason. I'm telling you that unequivocally yes, all those teams would have qualified for a postseason format that effectively cut the field in half at the conclusion of the regular season using a rating system that factored in W-L record, Opp W-L record, SOS, and Opp SOS. You also said, "the existence of one team that has made a deep postseason run that would not have otherwise made it outside of an all-in formula is enough to justify the all-in formula. End of story." I'll ask again, please provide an example of a team that has gone on a deep postseason run that wouldn't have made the postseason under a qualifying format?

Northwood was a top 15 Sagarin team in 3A the year they went 3-6 and won the state title. They would have qualified for any postseason format that effectively cut the field in half at the conclusion of the regular season, and been comfortably in. Beating Chatard was definitely an upset, no dispute there, but they weren't some longshot team that had no business being in the state tournament. They were a smaller enrollment school playing in a predominantly larger class conference who played a bunch of teams close. All the teams you listed in the above mentioned post would have qualified for a postseason format that effectively cut the field in half using a rating system that factored in W-L record, Opp W-L record, SOS, and Opp SOS despite finishing the regular season with losing records. My argument was never that bottom half teams haven't upset top half rated teams, other than it was extremely rare. You made the unfounded argument that any bottom half team that makes a "deep tournament run" justifies the all-in. I'm asking for an example of a bottom half rated team that has gone on a "deep tournament run". I've yet to come across a single case of this in the nearly decade I've been tracking such data. Cinderella's don't exist in high school football.

Provide an example of a team rated outside the top half of the field that has made a deep postseason run. I've done this exercise for almost 10 years running. Cinderella in Indiana High School football is a myth, it doesn't exists. Teams rated outside the top half of a rating system such as Sagarin that advance under the current climate do so by virtue of drawing another team rated outside the top half of the field. There has to be a winner in this instance. Instances where a team from outside the top half upsets a top half team is extremely rare, as in you only need one hand to count the number of times its happened. I've yet to come across a team rated outside the top half of the field in all the years I've been tracking this data that has gone on a "deep tournament run".

If you used any kind of rating system that factored in W-L record, Opp W-L record, SOS, and Opp SOS to cut the field in half at the end of the regular season all those teams are in with relative ease. All 4-5 teams aren't built equally. Northwood was a top 15 Sagarin rated team in 3A the year they won heading into the playoff at 3-6.

I'm sure you'd hear the same nonsensical arguments that you hear from detractors on here. "Every team starts fresh with a new slate come playoff time" "Playing our best football right now" "Kids have worked to hard to have their season end"

An uproar if a team that finished 0-9 or 1-8 wasn't invited to the postseason? Why? Add a 10th regular season game. Allow teams who didn't qualify for the postseason to play an end of the year "bowl game" if gate revenue is the sole purpose for maintaining an archaic playoff format. Shouldn't be that hard to figure out.

I don't know if it's just me, but the build up to this game just isn't there this year. This has been one of the marquee regular season games for the last couple years, this year it just feels like its another game. I honestly have no clue how good Cathedral is given they really haven't been tested in about 2 months. CG has gone about their business after losing a nail bitter in Kentucky. Here is to hoping for a good, clean, injury-free game.

Correct. The all-in format is the only way to justify current week 1 blowouts. The second the sectionals are seeded and there's 100+ non-competitive first round games will only open the door to a qualifier which isn't what the IHSAA wants. So instead, teams like Shortridge are the sacrificial lambs.

As I've been saying for years.......there is a quick and easy fix for something like this.

To be fair, Minnesota hadn’t played a soul prior to their game with Purdue (outside a vastly overrated MSU team) and were without their two best offensive players.

Leonhard will be a breath of fresh air from Chryst. Young, fiery and animated demeanor which is complete opposite from Chryst. Wisconsin recruiting has been down these last two classes. Young coach should help in that department. Does need to hire an innovative OC. Wisconsin doesn't need to change everything about their brand, but it does need a facelift. Running the ball 40-50 times a game isn't going to attract elite skill position athletes. If I'm Leonhard/Wisconsin, I break the bank to get Brian Hartline and making him offensive coordinator.

Game got away from Wisconsin in the second half, but I'm not sure you can entirely fault the Leonhard and the defense. Illinois only have 300 yards of total offense which doesn't suggest the beat down at hand, but when you factor in that Wisconsin only had 200 yards of offense, multiple 3 and outs, and 3 turnovers, two of which happened at their own end of the field, you can see how the defense was put in a bad spot over and over again.

Ekiyor and Stepp were sophomores on the 2015 team that lost to Avon and Werner and Stewart (BC commit) were juniors. QB Max Bortenschlager was a senior. 2016 team was loaded but oft hurt. Stepp tore his hamstring on his first carry from scrimmage that year and came back for the playoffs but only played when the offense was in the red zone. Stewart had a pretty significant leg injury as well. Those teams in 2015 and 2016 had some great top end talent but didn't have near the depth suited for a 6A run like Cathedral has enjoyed the last few years. Cathedral has some studs at the top this year (not quite as deep as those teams) but they are in a much better position to make a run this year given this team is much deeper across the board.

John Bosco and Mater Dei play Friday and most publications have them #1 and #2 in the country. Mater Dei already boasts a win over Bishop Gorman who most have in the top 10 as well as Centennial who is another top 15, top 20 team depending on publication. Guessing this is the biggest game in high school football this year.

What Boilernation said. CBC is likely a lot better coached and disciplined team than Detroit King. Both teams probably have similar athletes. CBC is all-male ~850 boys.