Sectional 32 - 2024

[Alduflux]

13 minutes ago, Titan32 said:

How are you determining if a team is over or undervalued vs Sagarin after week 9?  

I compare the Sagarin week 9 rating vs the week 15 rating.  I have the week 9 through 15 ratings saved on my computer from years past.  I'm not sure how to find them online.

For instance, MD's after state rating was 10 pts higher then what there rating was after week 9.

Edited October 13, 2024 by Alduflux

[TigerFan20]

3A North coming up, but here we go….

[TigerFan20]

Wow

[Titan32]

1 hour ago, Alduflux said:

I compare the Sagarin week 9 rating vs the week 15 rating.  I have the week 9 through 15 ratings saved on my computer from years past.  I'm not sure how to find them online.

For instance, MD's after state rating was 10 pts higher then what there rating was after week 9.

I don’t think that methodology is super sound.  It’s inherent in the statistical analysis for these team’s ratings to evolve the deeper you go in the tournament.  Although, perhaps you can identify trends going bad on direction or the other…but at the end of the day, it’s not identifying much.

[Cappy]

On 10/8/2024 at 1:55 PM, Titan32 said:

I predict the Catholic hating IHSAA will put Memorial and Mater Dei in a round 1 game.

 

[Titan32]

11 minutes ago, TigerFan20 said:

Wow

I called it!  Well at least I called the Catholic matchup!

[TigerFan20]

Just now, Titan32 said:

I called it!  Well at least I called the Catholic matchup!

Absolutely called it! First round is already off to some hot games and rematches.

[NumbersNvrLie]

Prediction

[Alduflux]

7 minutes ago, Titan32 said:

I don’t think that methodology is super sound.  It’s inherent in the statistical analysis for these team’s ratings to evolve the deeper you go in the tournament.  Although, perhaps you can identify trends going bad on direction or the other…but at the end of the day, it’s not identifying much.

I was just pointing out that the SIAC sagarin ratings have in the past changed drastically after the playoffs, something you insinuated wouldn't happen by implying Sagarin can't be off ten points.  The "10 pt" advantage changed 7 points on friday.  HH is now just a 3 pt favorite.

It is reasonable that Memorial will be rated higher after this week, playing Reitz vs HH playing Washington.

Edited October 13, 2024 by Alduflux

[tango]

7 minutes ago, Alduflux said:

I was just pointing out that the SIAC sagarin ratings have in the past changed drastically after the playoffs, something you insinuated wouldn't happen by implying Sagarin can't be off ten points.  The "10 pt" advantage changed 7 points on friday.  HH is now just a 3 pt favorite.

It is reasonable that Memorial will be rated higher after this week, playing Reitz vs HH playing Washington.

Memorial plays Castle. 

So Reitz hosts Central in Sectional 24 so Memorial at MD will be somewhere other than the bowl, I would bet at Central.

[TigerFan20]

17 minutes ago, tango said:

Memorial plays Castle. 

So Reitz hosts Central in Sectional 24 so Memorial at MD will be somewhere other than the bowl, I would bet at Central.

Just noticed that too, maybe North also due to the bye week.

[HereComesTheBoom]

56 minutes ago, TigerFan20 said:

Wow

 

[OlMarksmenTiger]

50 minutes ago, tango said:

Memorial plays Castle. 

So Reitz hosts Central in Sectional 24 so Memorial at MD will be somewhere other than the bowl, I would bet at Central.

That would be my guess, or would they try to postpone it to Saturday and have it at the bowl?

[Titan32]

1 hour ago, Alduflux said:

I was just pointing out that the SIAC sagarin ratings have in the past changed drastically after the playoffs, something you insinuated wouldn't happen by implying Sagarin can't be off ten points.  The "10 pt" advantage changed 7 points on friday.  HH is now just a 3 pt favorite.

It is reasonable that Memorial will be rated higher after this week, playing Reitz vs HH playing Washington.

Sagain likes when team A holds team B to zero.  Maybe both will do that.

[TigerFan20]

SECTIONAL 32
	SECT	REGN	SEMI	STATE
Heritage Hills	57.71%	55.42%	41.44%	32.57%
Gibson Southern	15.54%	13.98%	7.49%	4.38%
Southridge	15.35%	13.41%	6.36%	3.34%
Evansville Memorial	7.92%	6.65%	2.71%	1.24%
Evansville Mater Dei	2.31%	1.73%	.50%	.17%
Vincennes Lincoln	.63%	.31%	.04%
Mount Vernon (Posey)	.53%	.32%	.06%	.01%
Princeton	.02%

 

[OlMarksmenTiger]

34 minutes ago, TigerFan20 said:

SECTIONAL 32
	SECT	REGN	SEMI	STATE
Heritage Hills	57.71%	55.42%	41.44%	32.57%
Gibson Southern	15.54%	13.98%	7.49%	4.38%
Southridge	15.35%	13.41%	6.36%	3.34%
Evansville Memorial	7.92%	6.65%	2.71%	1.24%
Evansville Mater Dei	2.31%	1.73%	.50%	.17%
Vincennes Lincoln	.63%	.31%	.04%
Mount Vernon (Posey)	.53%	.32%	.06%	.01%
Princeton	.02%

 

This is somewhat laughable in regards to Memorial and Mater Dei for Sectional % and the comparison to Southridge and Gibson Southern.  The mechanism that calculated this must value PAC chances somehow and/or home/away impact crazy high.

I have watched a lot of Memorial, a little bit of 3 games of Heritage Hills, including the Southridge game, Mater Dei once. Southridge is in the sub 1% group. I think they would have a tough time with Vincennes.

It is in high probability, unless something magical happens at the Jewell or Goebel pulls a rabbit out, that it will end up like this below.  Memorial at Heritage Hills.  If Heritage Hills is able to consistently run the ball, it will be trouble for Memorial.  If they have to throw, they will have a hard time winning.  

 

Edited October 14, 2024 by OlMarksmenTiger

[tango]

11 hours ago, OlMarksmenTiger said:

That would be my guess, or would they try to postpone it to Saturday and have it at the bowl?

It would be pretty unusual to play on Saturday. Enlow is open, but I suspect Coach Goebel will take Central or possibly North. 

[tango]

A possible Round 2 matchup of Southridge at Ev. Memorial would be the first-ever meeting of those teams in football. 

[tango]

MD is 3-1 versus Memorial in post-season play.

[tango]

12 hours ago, OlMarksmenTiger said:

This is somewhat laughable in regards to Memorial and Mater Dei for Sectional % and the comparison to Southridge and Gibson Southern.  The mechanism that calculated this must value PAC chances somehow and/or home/away impact crazy high.

We will relish our role as heavy underdogs in this Sectional... 

[Titan32]

A p/p with football tradition playing a class below where it should be playing is NEVER an underdog....how could it be?

[tango]

36 minutes ago, Titan32 said:

A p/p with football tradition playing a class below where it should be playing is NEVER an underdog....how could it be?

We play where we are assigned to play by the powers that be.

 

[reitzguy]

13 hours ago, OlMarksmenTiger said:

This is somewhat laughable in regards to Memorial and Mater Dei for Sectional % and the comparison to Southridge and Gibson Southern.  The mechanism that calculated this must value PAC chances somehow and/or home/away impact crazy high.

I have watched a lot of Memorial, a little bit of 3 games of Heritage Hills, including the Southridge game, Mater Dei once. Southridge is in the sub 1% group. I think they would have a tough time with Vincennes.

It is in high probability, unless something magical happens at the Jewell or Goebel pulls a rabbit out, that it will end up like this below.  Memorial at Heritage Hills.  If Heritage Hills is able to consistently run the ball, it will be trouble for Memorial.  If they have to throw, they will have a hard time winning.  

 

Looks like the sectional semi finals are taking place on week 1. Memorial should beat MD but when these two teams meet up you never know especially with the season on the line. As for HH and GS, I may be wrong but a couple/few years ago didn’t HH come to Jewell Field with an undefeated record, in the same season they had blown out GS at their place and went home with a loss to a three loss GS team. So It’s not far fetched that it could happen again. Also heard mention on the selection show that this is the only sectional in the state that has 5 head coaches that have won state titles. How about that for Southern area football.

[HereComesTheBoom]

11 minutes ago, reitzguy said:

Looks like the sectional semi finals are taking place on week 1. Memorial should beat MD but when these two teams meet up you never know especially with the season on the line. As for HH and GS, I may be wrong but a couple/few years ago didn’t HH come to Jewell Field with an undefeated record, in the same season they had blown out GS at their place and went home with a loss to a three loss GS team. So It’s not far fetched that it could happen again. Also heard mention on the selection show that this is the only sectional in the state that has 5 head coaches that have won state titles. How about that for Southern area football.

I heard them say, 5 schools that have played in state finals since 2017.  And, all 5 schools have head coaches with at least 100 career wins.  

Edited October 14, 2024 by HereComesTheBoom

[TigerFan20]

Future Pairings for the semi’s

SECTIONAL 32 [BRACKET]
	Evansville Memorial [8-0] at Mount Vernon (Posey) [4-4]
or	Evansville Mater Dei [7-1] at Mount Vernon (Posey) [4-4]
or	Evansville Mater Dei [7-1] at Southridge [6-2]
or	Southridge [6-2] at Evansville Memorial [8-0]
	Vincennes Lincoln [3-5] at Heritage Hills [7-1]
or	Princeton [1-7] at Heritage Hills [7-1]
or	Princeton [1-7] at Gibson Southern [6-2]
or	Gibson Southern [6-2] at Vincennes Lincoln [3-5]