College Football Playoff

[Coach Nowlin]

2 hours ago, Bobref said:

Keep in mind that the point spreads announced by the gamblers have only a loose connection to projected results. The point spread announced by the gamblers has two functions:

1. To attract the maximum amount of money bet on the game, and
2. To have the wagers equal on both sides of the bet, so as to minimize the risk to “the house.”

BINGO 

[Coach Nowlin]

I was close on the 31-28 ND victory I posted in other thread, I invested in only investment that paid me off at +650, that was ND winning by 1-5 points.   🙂

On first glance, the question is health of ND offensive line moving forward to the 20th, that may cause the line to move closer to -7.5 or 8 to OSU.   Don't think it goes any higher than -9.5 personally.    

Can ND take a page out of Michigan playbook and control up front and grind out the game, keep OSU offense on the sideline and out of rhythm.  I am not sure yet.......

not ready to invest quite yet, 9 more days to go.  

[BTF]

41 minutes ago, Coach Nowlin said:

I was close on the 31-28 ND victory I posted in other thread, I invested in only investment that paid me off at +650, that was ND winning by 1-5 points.   🙂

On first glance, the question is health of ND offensive line moving forward to the 20th, that may cause the line to move closer to -7.5 or 8 to OSU.   Don't think it goes any higher than -9.5 personally.    

Can ND take a page out of Michigan playbook and control up front and grind out the game, keep OSU offense on the sideline and out of rhythm.  I am not sure yet.......

not ready to invest quite yet, 9 more days to go.  

Am I wrong though? I think ND's stigma has something to do with it versus actual performance on the field.

[Bobref]

13 minutes ago, BTF said:

Am I wrong though? I think ND's stigma has something to do with it versus actual performance on the field.

The point spreads announced is a reflection of what the gamblers think the betting public thinks. The perception is that OSU is significantly better. Therefore, the point spreads announced is high because they need to give a lot of points to attract bettors to the Notre Dame side of the bet. Remember, for the gambling houses, the ideal is exactly the same amount of money on each side of the bet. So, if there is a “stigma,” it’s reflected in the point spreads announced for that reason. 

Edited January 11, 2025 by Bobref

[BTF]

1 minute ago, Bobref said:

The point spreads announced is a reflection of what the gamblers think the betting public thinks. The perception is that OSU is significantly better. Therefore, the point spreads announced is high because they need to give a lot of points to attract bettors to the Notre Dame side of the bet. Remember, for the gambling houses, the ideal is exactly the same amount of money on each side of the bet. So, if there is a “stigma,” it’s reflected in the point spreads announced for that reason. 

Got it. Thanks. 

[Coach Nowlin]

14 minutes ago, BTF said:

Am I wrong though? I think ND's stigma has something to do with it versus actual performance on the field.

yea, like Bob said, its a math problem for Vegas, backed by unbelieviable algo that makes Vegas a winner

[Sparty]

1 hour ago, Coach Nowlin said:

yea, like Bob said, its a math problem for Vegas, backed by unbelieviable algo that makes Vegas a winner

Or a script

I’m out…..

[Sparty]

These sidelines are a freaking joke.  The officials, and or the extra officials on the sidelines need to get the players and coaches off the field and the white.  But, in reality, why can’t these people control themselves?   GTFOOTW. 

[Bash Riprock]

23 hours ago, Bobref said:

The point spreads announced is a reflection of what the gamblers think the betting public thinks. The perception is that OSU is significantly better. Therefore, the point spreads announced is high because they need to give a lot of points to attract bettors to the Notre Dame side of the bet. Remember, for the gambling houses, the ideal is exactly the same amount of money on each side of the bet. So, if there is a “stigma,” it’s reflected in the point spreads announced for that reason. 

True….but Vegas doesn’t place larger spreads on games if they don’t believe in the gap. There would be outstanding activity on the game had the spread been 4-5 pts. I just hope ND shows them they are very wrong 

[Bash Riprock]

23 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

True….but Vegas doesn’t place larger spreads on games if they don’t believe in the gap. There would be outstanding activity on the game had the spread been 4-5 pts. I just hope ND shows them they are very wrong 

Spread has fallen to 8.5

[Muda69]

I still don't fully understand this point spread stuff, and frankly I don't care to.   I have zero interest in betting my hard earned money on a sportsball contest. 

 

[Bash Riprock]

I do appreciate the new format of the CFP.  The championship game is #7 ND vs #8 Ohio State.  Under previous years 4 team format, neither team would have even been in the CFP.  Neither team played in a conference championship game.  (or course 1 of those teams can't)  I do feel this is way better allowing the outcome to be settled on the field. 

[Coach Nowlin]

Just now, Sparty said:

Or a script

I’m out…..

Alex jones is your spirit animal I see  🙂

 

[Irishman]

45 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

I do appreciate the new format of the CFP.  The championship game is #7 ND vs #8 Ohio State.  Under previous years 4 team format, neither team would have even been in the CFP.  Neither team played in a conference championship game.  (or course 1 of those teams can't)  I do feel this is way better allowing the outcome to be settled on the field. 

While I agree, remember that their seeds were 7 and 8 and not their ranking. As I have said many times, that issue needs to be cleaned up. 

[RingLeader]

On 1/10/2025 at 10:26 PM, PDB26 said:

One of the worst big-moment officiating decisions I can think of in recent memory. Not even sure who made the call. Can't see a flag on either angle from the tv copy. It felt very much like a call made based on the outcome of the play. Way under thrown ball, receiver jumps early and away from the ball.

This was same crew that did ND Georgia game and same official with controversial call in that game as I understand it. Hence, why Freeman was pointing at him with sarcastic smile.  Flag came from across the field and not from closest officials. Inside Access ND shows it clearly.  Pretty frustrating to watch. 

[Coach Nowlin]

I know a very high end college football offical who is contracted through the Big 10, he was pretty excited pre bowl/playoff season, he had zero down marks, checked in with him, he was sent to Holiday Bowl

He has done national title before 

[RingLeader]

On 1/11/2025 at 5:21 PM, Coach Nowlin said:

I was close on the 31-28 ND victory I posted in other thread, I invested in only investment that paid me off at +650, that was ND winning by 1-5 points.   🙂

On first glance, the question is health of ND offensive line moving forward to the 20th, that may cause the line to move closer to -7.5 or 8 to OSU.   Don't think it goes any higher than -9.5 personally.    

Can ND take a page out of Michigan playbook and control up front and grind out the game, keep OSU offense on the sideline and out of rhythm.  I am not sure yet.......

not ready to invest quite yet, 9 more days to go.  

This is a little hard to fathom, but ND oline improved a little bit with the injuries. Starting OL Charles Jagusah has missed entire season with torn pec but came in for Spindler at G vs PSU and dominated.  If Splinder can play look for Jagusah to move to LT. 

[BTF]

3 hours ago, Bash Riprock said:

I do appreciate the new format of the CFP.  The championship game is #7 ND vs #8 Ohio State.  Under previous years 4 team format, neither team would have even been in the CFP.  Neither team played in a conference championship game.  (or course 1 of those teams can't)  I do feel this is way better allowing the outcome to be settled on the field. 

Could we argue that Notre Dame would have come in at #4? The AP had them at #3. If it were a four team playoff, I really wonder if the committee would have placed Penn State ahead of the Irish.

[PDB26]

1 hour ago, BTF said:

Could we argue that Notre Dame would have come in at #4? The AP had them at #3. If it were a four team playoff, I really wonder if the committee would have placed Penn State ahead of the Irish.

The old format would have likely excluded Penn State and Texas. The conference championships create a strange set of circumstances in the new format. The losers in those games seem to get even more grace from the committee than they used to.

I would guess the four-teamer would have been: Oregon, Georgia, Ohio State, and Notre Dame.

[PDB26]

3 hours ago, RingLeader said:

This was same crew that did ND Georgia game and same official with controversial call in that game as I understand it. Hence, why Freeman was pointing at him with sarcastic smile.  Flag came from across the field and not from closest officials. Inside Access ND shows it clearly.  Pretty frustrating to watch. 

Went back and watched the all-22 on ESPN on Sunday morning, and you still can't see where it comes from although it's almost certainly the field judge––same guy you IDed. Brutal call.

[Huge Football Fan]

17 minutes ago, PDB26 said:

Went back and watched the all-22 on ESPN on Sunday morning, and you still can't see where it comes from although it's almost certainly the field judge––same guy you IDed. Brutal call.

the DPI? it came from the B

[RingLeader]

Watched Skycast version

yes BJ who was on opposite side of goalpost from the play 35 yds from it threw the flag vs the official standing next to the pylon 10 feet from it.  
 

Least they were able to come back from it.  

[PDB26]

1 hour ago, RingLeader said:

Watched Skycast version

yes BJ who was on opposite side of goalpost from the play 35 yds from it threw the flag vs the official standing next to the pylon 10 feet from it.  
 

Least they were able to come back from it.  

Ok, thanks. I thought by the angle from espn that the flag was coming across the field from even farther away. Glad they could overcome that one.

[Bash Riprock]

On 1/13/2025 at 10:02 AM, Irishman said:

While I agree, remember that their seeds were 7 and 8 and not their ranking. As I have said many times, that issue needs to be cleaned up. 

I understand seeds vs rankings....no doubt about the clean up.  But, I don't believe either would have made the old 4 team CFP.  Maybe ND slides in being ranked 5th YE....

[Bash Riprock]

On 1/13/2025 at 11:17 AM, RingLeader said:

This was same crew that did ND Georgia game and same official with controversial call in that game as I understand it. Hence, why Freeman was pointing at him with sarcastic smile.  Flag came from across the field and not from closest officials. Inside Access ND shows it clearly.  Pretty frustrating to watch. 

Completely agree....I told my wife when it happened, the officials would huddle and wave it off.  I was shocked they didn't even discuss.

Loved Freeman giving the team of officials his thoughts during a time out.  (Pat McAfee shared that video)  Freeman was at animated as he will ever be (which is not much) and he was getting his point across....with the officials listening to his feedback.