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Temp's 4A Bracket Analysis


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Some super talented/loaded teams in this class that should make for an interesting next few weeks.

The Favorites:  (Sorted alphabetically.)

New Palestine - After a dominating stretch followed by a quick hiatus, Kyle Ralph's Dragons are back with a vengeance and put the state on notice immediately by disposing of the defending 5A state runners-up in Westfield before coasting through conference play.  That's the question for me.  Can the Dragons flip the switch back on and recreate that magic as the teams get tougher?  Was never a problem in the past and I don't think it will be this time around either.

Roncalli - Many anointed the 4A title a closed discussion back in early September as New Pal looked dominant.  However, the Royals have narrowed the gap significantly and are battle tested with some great wins on their resume.  They'll have a couple of tests in the sectional round and if they make it to Thanksgiving weekend, will have deserved it as their path is absolutely brutal.

The Contenders:  (Sorted alphabetically.)

East Central - Any other year, I feel like the Trojans belong in the above category and perhaps they still do.  EC beat a solid Lawreneburg unit in week 1, coasted through an easy conference schedule and they played Roncalli right down to the wire in week 9.  They have the benefit of a slightly easier sectional compared to Roncalli though a Martinsville team with some impressive wins also could make them sweat.

Evansville Reitz - Its easy for a central Indy guy like myself to forget about the Pocket City and some have been critical of Reitz's omission from the my weekly rankings.  The SIAC was a cluster of good teams this year and Reitz seems to be the best of the bunch.  Are they great?  We will find out.  Jasper and Memorial will not go down quietly.

The Sleepers:  (Sorted alphabetically.)

Brebeuf Jesuit - A team much better than its record indicates as they play a daunting schedule.  Actually led Roncalli early in their contest before falling by 17.

Columbia City - Another team, like Fort Wayne North in 5A that few are talking about.  The Eagles quietly took care of business after an early season blemish.

Evansville Memorial - As mentioned, a solid SIAC unit that won 6 of its last 7 after starting 0-2.  They'll be ready.

Hobart - Never count out the Brickies.  Another team that played a tough schedule in losing to two DAC teams early before winning 6 of their last 7.

Jasper - The Wildcats were in the thick of the SIAC race all season long and have enough to make either Memorial or Reitz earn the sectional title.

Kokomo - The Wildcats played a ho hum schedule and lost to the best team on it (Lafayette Jeff) albeit by a small margin.  They are dangerous.

Mooresville - One of the best QBs in the state that few are talking about.  Sectional is loaded.

New Prairie - Only blemish is to a 6A unit in Penn.  

NorthWood - Most folks' favorite to come out of the north.

 

Temp's Picks:

Sectional Champions:

Hobart

NorthWood

Columbia City

Kokomo

Roncalli

New Palestine

East Central

Evansville Reitz

 

Regional Champions:

NorthWood

Kokomo

New Palestine

East Central

 

Semi-State Champions:

NorthWood

New Palestine

 

State Champions:  New Palestine

 

What say you?

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I think New Prairie will win sectional 17 and lose to NorthWood in the regionals.  Also, I think Leo will win sectional 19.  I feel as if the beginning of the season, they had a learning curve and adjusted well.  They now have played and know what to expect out of CC and I think will beat them the 2nd time around.  Other than those two changes, i agree for the most part.  I know a lot of people (aka everyone) are saying that if NorthWood makes it, they don't stand much of a chance against either New Pal or Roncalli.  I'm not too convinced any team would roll over them.  As long as they can stay healthy, I feel they can keep up with any team in 4A, especially offensively.  Being a passing team...in a controlled environment, they are dangerous.  I would expect it to be a good game. And as a NorthWood supporter...selfishly, I would like them to play Roncalli...as they have quite the history with them in Indianapolis.

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4 hours ago, 00NWP said:

Being a passing team...in a controlled environment, they are dangerous.

This is what makes me think Northwood isn't going to make it too indy. NW isn't going to have much trouble getting through the first 2 rounds regardless of weather. But then they will likely face a 9-2 Logansport squad in the sectional championship and then have face 2 very good teams in the regional and semi-state rounds. That's 3 weeks in a row where I'd be watching that radar if I'm a Panther fan because the team on the other side of field is capable on knocking them off. History suggests at least 1 of those Fridays is going to be miserable weather wise. I think this is why some damn good Plymouth squads never made deep runs over the last 15 years. 

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That is a big concern for me...however we do have a good running back who has had good games (Warsaw game stands out).  The running game just hasn't been a priority as they have 4-5 receivers that are really good. I would say high schools don't typically have more than 1 or 2 dbs that are all that good. (I think it's the hardest position in the game). Time will tell and I'm hoping the Northern Indiana weather will be a non factor. Judging by your handle your a New Prairie fan...with that team they would love some weather! 

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Honestly I think NWood’s sense of inevitability from some is from the NLC being pretty weak this year. Mishawaka actually outplayed them and Concord was making it interesting into the 4th quarter. Other than Warsaw everyone else in the NLC was pretty bad. 
That said with a Soph QB in colder temps I think the key for NW is actually their defense which has been really good all year. 
It looks to me like both the sectional final and regional will be at NW, if that’s the case I think it will be tough for anyone in the north coming in there and winning unless the weather is just a major issue. 

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7 hours ago, tango said:

I would favor the home team in any matchup between the winner of Sectional 24 and East Central. I don't see anybody stopping New Pal.

S24/S23 Regional game will be a fun one, however, probably not the 4 hour drive

Edited by TigerFan20
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Let me start by saying I think Mount Vernon is one of the most improved teams in the state and if I heard correctly last night starts a 15 year old at QB.

That being said, @MonkeyButt likes to use the transitive property in his argument that New Pal could be the #1 team in Indiana regardless of class.

Well, that can work both ways.

New Pal was trailing in the 3rd quarter and defeated a Mount Vernon team by 11 points.  Mount Vernon also lost to the HCC’s 7th place team (Noblesville) by 8.

HSE and Brownsburg beat Noblesville by a combined score of 83-42 this season.

Let’s pump the brakes a bit.

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9 hours ago, Sports Freak20 said:

But New Pal is probably the best team in the state, right Monkey Butt??  They should run through 4A right???

Yes they might be.  Not understanding this reply at all.  They beat a good team on the road by double digits in a game that wasn't that close. Nevermind the fact it was a rivalry game.  If not for a very questionable call that took a TD away from New Pal at the end of the 1st half and New Pal electing not to score late that game could have easily been 25 point + margin.

Edited by dmizers3
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6 minutes ago, dmizers3 said:

Yes they might be.  Not understanding this reply at all.  They beat a good team on the road by double digits in a game that wasn't that close. Nevermind the fact it was a rivalry game.  If not for a very questionable call that took a TD away from New Pal at the end of the 1st half and New Pal electing not to score late that game could have easily been 25 point + margin.

Whenever I see the words “could have” I stop reading…

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On 10/20/2022 at 6:12 AM, fenderbender said:

Found the rules.  Looks like at Regionals odd sectional hosts if both teams hosted sectional finals.  Seems to favor Roncalli in New Pal match up, if both play away the first two weekends.

Roncalli's blowout of Shortridge was supposed to be a Shortridge home game. However, it was moved to Roncalli. Not sure the reason. Supposedly the same will happen next week when they play Attucks.

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15 minutes ago, WestfieldRocks said:

Roncalli's blowout of Shortridge was supposed to be a Shortridge home game. However, it was moved to Roncalli. Not sure the reason. Supposedly the same will happen next week when they play Attucks.

Could this be why?

7536195A-31A9-4244-ABF9-CC779A49DCF2.png

Also, does Shortridge still get credit for hosting that game because that could affect where Roncalli has to play in future more important contests if not…

Edited by temptation
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24 minutes ago, temptation said:

Could this be why?

7536195A-31A9-4244-ABF9-CC779A49DCF2.png

Also, does Shortridge still get credit for hosting that game because that could affect where Roncalli has to play in future more important contests if not…

Ummm, looks like few if any bleachers! I also remember a game that was supposed to be there a few years ago that had to be cancelled when the assigned officials did not show up. I remember a Westfield/Scecina tournament game years ago where Scecina played at Howe High School's field. There were only bleachers on the home team side, so fans of both schools sat on the same side. Westfield's bench was still on the other side. It was odd seeing them over there by themselves. 

As for your question, that was sort of mine. I would think that were the game was actually played would be what counts. You are right that this could affect Roncalli's home team status down the road.

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3 hours ago, temptation said:

Could this be why?

7536195A-31A9-4244-ABF9-CC779A49DCF2.png

Also, does Shortridge still get credit for hosting that game because that could affect where Roncalli has to play in future more important contests if not…

There is precedent set by the IHSAA on this. In 2013, Silver Creek was scheduled to host Reitz in the second round. Because of a lack of seating, and the crowd expected to follow Reitz, the game was moved to the Reitz bowl, with Silver Creek wearing their home colors and being the home team on the scoreboard. Had Jasper of lost in the other half of the bracket, Reitz would have hosted the sectional finals (even though they were the home team in the first round.)

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