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Temp's 6A Bracket Analysis


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8 minutes ago, temptation said:

Exactly.  This actually makes the opposite point of the poster’s intention…especially considering I think those Fishers teams would hold their own, if not defeat most northern non-Indy schools.

I know @BTF is tired of hearing it but I will cite the winless Noblesville/undefeated Homestead game until I’m in the grave.

Mid-tier HCC and MIC teams would be front runners playing in the Duneland, SAC, or NIC most years. Bottom feeders would still be overly competitive in most years.

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2 hours ago, scarab527 said:

The 'Indy bias' is justified seeing the dominance Indy has had over the largest classes for the past 20 years. Teams from outside the donut will need to win multiple state titles in order to shake that off, one won't be enough (nor should it be considering said Indy dominance). 

I do think this CP team is pretty good, as do I think Carroll is good. 

Are either good enough to beat whatever Indy team they play in the semistate? I'm not sure. I think some of us thought Merrillville was good enough last year and we saw how that turned out.

I will say in regards to CP that I think they're better equipped to deal with a team from down there than Merrillville has been the past 3 years mainly do to their line play, discipline, and the expertise of their coaching staff. 

Good thing the tournament is starting soon and all of this speculation and posturing will be put to rest. 

 

The coaching staff is what will lose them the game. 

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2 minutes ago, MW1971 said:

Looking over the past two decades, I would agree with your comment. 

But overall, I believe that gap has narrowed recently, especially in The MIC. 

There are many matchups in The MIC that are just not worth watching.

NC vs Pike?

And frankly, no one watches anyways based on the travel realities that led to the departures of the two top programs in the conference. 

I dont see a very rosy picture for MIC football.  I see it in a permanent state of decline, and rapidly taking a back seat to basketball.

Some truth to this but when you lose your two best programs, there is only one direction to go.

Take Michigan/OSU out of the Big Ten or Bama/UGA out of the SEC…same deal.

This season, the HCC was king (in the regular season) but we have been here before.

Crown Point would be a mid pack HCC team.  Doesn’t mean on the right night they couldn’t beat a Brownsburg or HSE but doing it on a week in and week out basis?  Different story.

Crown Point would also be at least a TD underdog against BD and I would take LC/WC on a neutral field against them.

They’d be a slight favorite in the Mid-State in my opinion.

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6 minutes ago, temptation said:

Some truth to this but when you lose your two best programs, there is only one direction to go.

Take Michigan/OSU out of the Big Ten or Bama/UGA out of the SEC…same deal.

This season, the HCC was king (in the regular season) but we have been here before.

Crown Point would be a mid pack HCC team.  Doesn’t mean on the right night they couldn’t beat a Brownsburg or HSE but doing it on a week in and week out basis?  Different story.

Crown Point would also be at least a TD underdog against BD and I would take LC/WC on a neutral field against them.

They’d be a slight favorite in the Mid-State in my opinion.

Agree 100% with everything except the last part. 

CP would run through the Mid State this year. 

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10 minutes ago, scarab527 said:

Agree 100% with everything except the last part. 

CP would run through the Mid State this year. 

In a one game, head to head contest, sure.

But give them a gauntlet of Whiteland, Mooresville and DC in a 3-4 week span and I think it’d take its toll.

Thats what folks seem to forget.  It’s not just a one week ordeal when you compare conference strength.

I think the two conferences are very comparable.

DAC slightly better at the top, Mid-State better in the middle, equals at the bottom.

Edited by temptation
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According to Sagarin:

1.  Crown Point

2.  Whiteland

3.  Franklin

4.  Merrillville

5.  Mooresville

6.  Chesterton

7.  Valparaiso

8.  Decatur Central

9.  Martinsville

10.  Plainfield

11.  Lake Central

12.  Perry Meridian

13.  Michigan City

14.  Portage

15.  Greenwood

16.  LaPorte

Crown Point a clear #1 in the DAC, Whiteland in the Mid-State

Teams 3-7 would be TD spreads on neutral fields, 3-9 10 or less.

If you wanna go head to head based on Sagarin the Mid-State goes 6-2.

Scoring it golf/XC style the Mid-State wins 64-72.

Taking Sagarin average the Mid-State's average of 69.95 is 6.5 points clear of the DAC at 63.39.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, BTF said:

You've got a point there. Now we just need Penn to step up this year and take state............or at least make a good impression at Lucas. Indy has dominated 6A since it's inception with the exception of Penn's near win over Center Grove in 2015. Temp pisses me off when he says "show me." But he's right. 

Near win?  😆   I was LOS and must have saw a completely different game.  Wow..first time I have ever heard the game described as a near Penn win.

CG was undefeated that year....now Avon and CG in the semi-state playing a double OT game....now that was a near win for the Orioles.

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27 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

Near win?  😆   I was LOS and must have saw a completely different game.  Wow..first time I have ever heard the game described as a near Penn win.

CG was undefeated that year....now Avon and CG in the semi-state playing a double OT game....now that was a near win for the Orioles.

I too was at that game . It wasn't a near win for Penn but it was a very competitive game . 21-16 well into the 4th quarter before CG tacked on another score . The better team won , but it was a good game. 

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5 hours ago, scarab527 said:

The last time a team from outside the Donut won the title in the highest class was Penn in 2000. While the North has produced good teams in that time span, let's not kid ourselves here. 

You said "largest classes" and "20 years." Largest classes includes class 5a. Snider won in 2015 and were a rain storm away from winning in 2016 as well. Penn was also locked in a close game in 2015 with Center Grove. Snider could have played with anyone in the state in 2004. So yeah, "most years." I get the overall message you're trying to convey though. Indy has been dominant. 

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3 hours ago, Bash Riprock said:

Wow..first time I have ever heard the game described as a near Penn win.

Maybe I'm thinking of a different game. Wasn't it still undecided in the fourth quarter. You Indy guys crack me up. I mention one competitive game and you get all bent out of shape. 

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5 minutes ago, BTF said:

You said "largest classes" and "20 years." Largest classes includes class 5a. Snider won in 2015 and were a rain storm away from winning in 2016 as well. Penn was also locked in a close game in 2015 with Center Grove. Snider could have played with anyone in the state in 2004. So yeah, "most years." I get the overall message you're trying to convey though. Indy has been dominant. 

Rain storm huh?

Only rain when one team had the ball or on one side of the field?

I like you man…but you’re crazy.

Edited by temptation
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1 minute ago, temptation said:

Rain storm huh?

Only rain when one team had the ball or on one side of the field?

Of course not. I'm just referencing the fact that Snider gave up a lead and the game could have gone in either direction. Have it your way Temp. Westfield was the DOMINANT team in 5a that year.  Is there a problem with Indy fans acknowledging that Central Indiana is dominant "most years?"

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1 minute ago, BTF said:

Of course not. I'm just referencing the fact that Snider gave up a lead and the game could have gone in either direction. Have it your way Temp. Westfield was the DOMINANT team in 5a that year.  Is there a problem with Indy fans acknowledging that Central Indiana is dominant "most years?"

Nah, I just like busting your balls.  I respect the hell out of you but you need to choose your words more wisely.

A “near win” for Penn, a “rain storm” loss for Snider and a “boredom” OT win for Homestead are now on the record.

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4 hours ago, temptation said:

I know @BTF is tired of hearing it but I will cite the winless Noblesville/undefeated Homestead game until I’m in the grave.

You and I will be debating this in 2043. I'll cite that Homestead was without their top player and the rest of the team fell asleep on the 2 hour bus ride down knowing they had to play a winless team. Homestead wins that game ten times out of ten. 

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2 minutes ago, temptation said:

Nah, I just like busting your balls.  I respect the hell out of you but you need to choose your words more wisely.

A “near win” for Penn, a “rain storm” loss for Snider and a “boredom” OT win for Homestead are now on the record.

Lol, maybe I just like rumbling with you guys from Indy. What's the fun in getting along all the time? It's been too long since we've debated. 

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1 minute ago, BTF said:

You and I will be debating this in 2043. I'll cite that Homestead was without their top player and the rest of the team fell asleep on the 2 hour bus ride down knowing they had to play a winless team. Homestead wins that game ten times out of ten. 

That game alone keeps the narrative alive.  Shouldn’t need to motivate yourself to play a tournament game regardless of circumstances and should not need your best player to beat the HCC’s doormat team.

Just now, BTF said:

Lol, maybe I just like rumbling with you guys from Indy. What's the fun in getting along all the time? It's been too long since we've debated. 

I’m an “Indy guy” in name only.  I’ve been very vocal about my desire for a true northern team to breakthrough and take 6A.

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1 minute ago, temptation said:

That game alone keeps the narrative alive.  Shouldn’t need to motivate yourself to play a tournament game regardless of circumstances and should not need your best player to beat the HCC’s doormat team.

Agree and agree. Kids are still kids though, and part of that is on the coaching. I guarantee the Spartans didn't go into that game with the same motivation they went into their games against Snider or Dwenger that year. 

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1 minute ago, BTF said:

Agree and agree. Kids are still kids though, and part of that is on the coaching. I guarantee the Spartans didn't go into that game with the same motivation they went into their games against Snider or Dwenger that year. 

Which is dumb in a win or go home format.

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10 minutes ago, temptation said:

I’m an “Indy guy” in name only.  I’ve been very vocal about my desire for a true northern team to breakthrough and take 6A.

You're probably the least biased poster on this forum, I'll give you that. You tell it like you see it. 

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