Temp's 6A Tournament Predictions

[GOLDRUSH1985]

1 hour ago, temptation said:

I think it’s becoming a bit of a culture at Carmel.  This’ll piss @Footballking16 off but I’ve long been a believer that socioeconomic status determines, in large part, how successful a school’s athletic program is…

Carmel has the opposite problem of Tech.  Their disadvantaged population (just under 10 percent at last check) is a detriment in football because those kids simply don’t have the same “grit” as districts in the sweet spot of 20-35%.  Football (safety issues) has become the devil to “soccer moms” in many areas and Carmel likely has more than its fair share of those compared to other areas.
 

Once again another theory…that I’ll get skull dragged for.

Tee off.

No skull dragging because your finally on to something LOL . Like BlackGold stated , it's been happening here for a few years . We've also lost good Talent to a very small school to the north in Michigan . Seems there are a lot of parents who want there children in a small school environment. 

[Bash Riprock]

11 hours ago, temptation said:

There simply a point of diminishing returns once you reach a certain number.

Another hypothetical:  What if Carmel were split into two schools of 2700?  
 

I’m betting both schools’ record averages out to be just over .500 unless you “filter” the football players one place and certain athletes gravitate towards one school.

There is little difference between 2500 and 5000…much less than 1000 to 3500 or 1500 to 4000.

This isn’t that hard.  Stop getting your feelings hurt.  CG is damn good.  You’re taking this as some sort of slight against the Trojans.  I respect their program more so than any other program in the state.

You also don’t like me and are letting emotions dictate your outrage.  It’ll be ok.  I promise.

You constantly return to hiding behind that rock.  Has nothing to do with that...just don't always buy into your opinionated theories.  Carmel has won many state championships in a variety of sports since their enrollment has been 5000+ to include football and basketball.  I provided you the clear cut data to prove this position.  You have providing nothing.

Prove statistically the difference in team performance with enrollments between 4500, 4700, 4900, 5100, etc.

People can be indifferent about you, and not swallow your fodder.  Feelings aren't hurt, you just haven't done a very good job of selling your thoughts.  Your opinions don't equal fact.  Please don't let that hurt your feelings.  

[Bash Riprock]

1 hour ago, temptation said:

I think it’s becoming a bit of a culture at Carmel.  This’ll piss @Footballking16 off but I’ve long been a believer that socioeconomic status determines, in large part, how successful a school’s athletic program is…

Carmel has the opposite problem of Tech.  Their disadvantaged population (just under 10 percent at last check) is a detriment in football because those kids simply don’t have the same “grit” as districts in the sweet spot of 20-35%.  Football (safety issues) has become the devil to “soccer moms” in many areas and Carmel likely has more than its fair share of those compared to other areas.
 

Once again another theory…that I’ll get skull dragged for.

Tee off.

Interesting theory.

So why aren't we seeing decline at schools like Brownsburg, Westfield, HSE, CG, Fishers, Cathedral, Chatard, Bloomington schools, etc.  Is there something different about Carmel?  Am I too believe that if Kevin Wright or Mo returned, they couldn't bring them back?  Coaches like Eric Moore, Kyle Ralph, etc. would fail at Carmel?

[Bash Riprock]

54 minutes ago, BLACKGOLD2007 said:

This seems to make sense, because the word is that Penn's best don't play football anymore. Rather than playing multiple sports, more students are specializing and that is taking away from the talent pool that Penn had the benefit of picking from. Also, a lot of parents up in our area just think football is going to lead to long term health issues, and prevent their children from participating in the sport. 

My child attends a local catholic middle school up here, and I was helping with the schools middle school football team, from what I was told just in the last five years they went from a team of two deep to no longer being a team. We were so low on numbers we were absorbed by another school. 

Soccer participation is up in these schools and Lax participation is up as well. Football is declining. I am not shocked that Carmel may be suffering from parents who think they are doing what is best for their child and even specialization. 

Not disagreeing with you and that may well be the case for Penn.  But with data as current as Sept 2023, that is contridictory to what is now being experienced nationally.

https://www.nfhs.org/articles/high-school-sports-participation-continues-rebound-toward-pre-pandemic-levels/#:~:text=Eleven-player football remained the,percent from the previous year.

Participation in high school sports eclipsed 7.8 million in the 2022-23 school year, reflecting a sharp increase from the previous year as the NFHS completed its High School Athletics Participation Survey for a second time after the pandemic interrupted its collection of data.

Eleven-player football remained the most popular boys sport with the total climbing back over one million participants. The total of 1,028,761 participants marks an increase of 54,969 and 5.6 percent from the previous year. Not only did 11-player football top the one million mark, this year’s increase was the first in the sport since 2013 and only the second increase since the all-time high of 1,112,303 in 2008-09. There also was a slight gain (34,935 to 35,301) in the number of boys in 6-, 8- and 9-player football.

[temptation]

13 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

Interesting theory.

So why aren't we seeing decline at schools like Brownsburg, Westfield, HSE, CG, Fishers, Cathedral, Chatard, Bloomington schools, etc.  Is there something different about Carmel?  Am I too believe that if Kevin Wright or Mo returned, they couldn't bring them back?  Coaches like Eric Moore, Kyle Ralph, etc. would fail at Carmel?

The public schools listed have a disadvantaged population in the sweet spot of roughly 20-35%.

Carmel is the outlier.

Edited October 24, 2023 by temptation

[Bash Riprock]

2 hours ago, temptation said:

The public schools listed have a disadvantaged population in the sweet spot of roughly 20-35%.

Carmel is the outlier.

Where can I go to review these schools "disadvantaged population" percentages assuming one buys into your  "socioeconomic" theory?

In your mind, Carmel is really screwed for football.  Too many "soft wealthy kids" contribute to a much too large student body.  

Getting back to your theory that 5000+ students is the kiss of death for football success, ever hear of Allen High School in Texas?  

https://www.dallasnews.com/high-school-sports/2018/12/13/allen-is-the-ultimate-one-school-town-its-football-team-is-a-juggernaut-is-a-mega-high-school-fair-for-the-rest-of-texas/#:~:text=Allen has won five state,Texas high school football history.&text=And the school could get,if the cards fall right.

The school's football team -- the defending state champs in Texas' largest classification -- just won its 30th straight game. Since the program made national news by opening its $60 million stadium in 2012, the Eagles haven't lost at home.

Allen has won five state football titles over the last 10 years, a decade of success that ranks among the best-ever runs in Texas high school football history.

Allen is a juggernaut, in the truest sense. And so is its high school.

Allen has nearly 6,700 students from 9th to 12th grade -- the largest high school in the state by 1,000 students -- and one of the largest in the nation.

[temptation]

16 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

Where can I go to review these schools "disadvantaged population" percentages assuming one buys into your  "socioeconomic" theory?

In your mind, Carmel is really screwed for football.  Too many "soft wealthy kids" contribute to a much too large student body.  

Getting back to your theory that 5000+ students is the kiss of death for football success, ever hear of Allen High School in Texas?  

https://www.dallasnews.com/high-school-sports/2018/12/13/allen-is-the-ultimate-one-school-town-its-football-team-is-a-juggernaut-is-a-mega-high-school-fair-for-the-rest-of-texas/#:~:text=Allen has won five state,Texas high school football history.&text=And the school could get,if the cards fall right.

The school's football team -- the defending state champs in Texas' largest classification -- just won its 30th straight game. Since the program made national news by opening its $60 million stadium in 2012, the Eagles haven't lost at home.

Allen has won five state football titles over the last 10 years, a decade of success that ranks among the best-ever runs in Texas high school football history.

Allen is a juggernaut, in the truest sense. And so is its high school.

Allen has nearly 6,700 students from 9th to 12th grade -- the largest high school in the state by 1,000 students -- and one of the largest in the nation.

https://inview.doe.in.gov/state/1088000000/population

 

Also, never said they were "screwed."  That's you speaking in hyperbole to try to prove a point.

"Kiss of death", lol.  Stop being so dramatic.

 

Just pushing back on the "you have 5000+ students, you SHOULD dominate" theory pushed by some.

 

[BTF]

8 minutes ago, temptation said:

Just pushing back on the "you have 5000+ students, you SHOULD dominate" theory pushed by some.

At the minimum, they should be one of the Top 5 teams in the state every year. But if their coach is one of those guys who is required to teach all day, coach for pennies on the dollar, then go home and tend to his family, then we could have an issue. Some good coaches actually do do that, but I wouldn't blame a guy for putting family before football based on their pay scale. In simple terms, if you took one coach and cloned him to coach every team in the state, Carmel should come out on top 50% of the time and hit Top 5 status 100% of the time. 

[BLACKGOLD2007]

3 hours ago, Bash Riprock said:

Not disagreeing with you and that may well be the case for Penn.  But with data as current as Sept 2023, that is contridictory to what is now being experienced nationally.

https://www.nfhs.org/articles/high-school-sports-participation-continues-rebound-toward-pre-pandemic-levels/#:~:text=Eleven-player football remained the,percent from the previous year.

Participation in high school sports eclipsed 7.8 million in the 2022-23 school year, reflecting a sharp increase from the previous year as the NFHS completed its High School Athletics Participation Survey for a second time after the pandemic interrupted its collection of data.

Eleven-player football remained the most popular boys sport with the total climbing back over one million participants. The total of 1,028,761 participants marks an increase of 54,969 and 5.6 percent from the previous year. Not only did 11-player football top the one million mark, this year’s increase was the first in the sport since 2013 and only the second increase since the all-time high of 1,112,303 in 2008-09. There also was a slight gain (34,935 to 35,301) in the number of boys in 6-, 8- and 9-player football.

Sure, there is no disagreement that football is the dominant male sport in our country. But, I found it interesting how it appears that Penn and Carmel maybe a reflection of situations. Large school populations (Penn still fields a large team) but overall talent is not the same as years prior. I assume Carmel's overall number of players is still high.

Is it a cycle for this current batch of players in the school? Is it something being played out in the homes?  Could it be something within the program itself that is causing the teams to be not as competitive to their normal standards? 

I think Penn's issue is they cannot recruit their (within their school) best players. I also believe, while they have a developmental football league, the high school staff is not as involved with that league as they used to be. When Geesman was around, he and his staff were around the games, not every game but enough to where we kids took notice. We ran the base elements of the Penn offense....From what I am hearing from boosters and others this is not the case right now. 

Edited October 24, 2023 by BLACKGOLD2007

[Bash Riprock]

15 minutes ago, temptation said:

Just pushing back on the "you have 5000+ students, you SHOULD dominate" theory pushed by some.

 

I don't know who stated they should dominate over 5000+...but I do know what you stated....and tried to push it as fact with your comments about the Carmel sports success.  I just disagree that your magical number of 5000+ is detrimental to their football success.  That has been proven wrong as they've already won a state championship (if that is the only measure of success) since being a school of 5000+.  I shared with you Allen High School in Texas dominance in football as a significantly larger high school than Carmel.  As Grover and other questioned, is there a law of diminishing returns over a certain amount of students?  I'll buy into that....simply took exceptions to your firm 5000+ theory as detrimental to a football programs success.

[Bash Riprock]

9 minutes ago, BLACKGOLD2007 said:

Sure, there is no disagreement that football is the dominant male sport in our country. But, I found it interesting how it appears that Penn and Carmel maybe a reflection of situations. Large school populations (Penn still fields a large team) but overall talent is not the same as years prior. I assume Carmel's overall number of players is still high.

Is it a cycle for this current batch of players in the school? Is it something being played out in the homes?  Could it be something within the program itself that is causing the teams to be not as competitive to their normal standards? 

I think Penn's issue is they cannot recruit their (within their school) best players. I also believe, while they have a developmental football league, the high school staff is not as involved with that league as they used to be. When Geesman was around, he and his staff were around the games, not every game but enough to where we kids took notice. We ran the base elements of the Penn offense....From what I am hearing from boosters and others this is not the case right now. 

I think these are great questions and illustrates the point that its more than about size....possibly several factors, not to mention a culture change.  Penn has dominated in baseball recently with back to back state champions.  Why is that?  What is driving baseball success?  To your point, I think several factors have to be evaluated.

[Footballking16]

39 minutes ago, BTF said:

At the minimum, they should be one of the Top 5 teams in the state every year. But if their coach is one of those guys who is required to teach all day, coach for pennies on the dollar, then go home and tend to his family, then we could have an issue. Some good coaches actually do do that, but I wouldn't blame a guy for putting family before football based on their pay scale. In simple terms, if you took one coach and cloned him to coach every team in the state, Carmel should come out on top 50% of the time and hit Top 5 status 100% of the time. 

Carmel's youth programs, especially at the Junior High level, is in shambles I've been told. Participation numbers are significantly down and the most affluent of the Junior High's had some of the lowest numbers they've ever seen. There seems to be some real disconnect between the high school program and the junior high feeder schools. How much of that lies solely on the varsity coaching staff can be debated but it's definitely factoring in to their recent lack of success. 

[Footballking16]

1 hour ago, Bash Riprock said:

Where can I go to review these schools "disadvantaged population" percentages assuming one buys into your  "socioeconomic" theory?

In your mind, Carmel is really screwed for football.  Too many "soft wealthy kids" contribute to a much too large student body.  

Getting back to your theory that 5000+ students is the kiss of death for football success, ever hear of Allen High School in Texas?  

https://www.dallasnews.com/high-school-sports/2018/12/13/allen-is-the-ultimate-one-school-town-its-football-team-is-a-juggernaut-is-a-mega-high-school-fair-for-the-rest-of-texas/#:~:text=Allen has won five state,Texas high school football history.&text=And the school could get,if the cards fall right.

The school's football team -- the defending state champs in Texas' largest classification -- just won its 30th straight game. Since the program made national news by opening its $60 million stadium in 2012, the Eagles haven't lost at home.

Allen has won five state football titles over the last 10 years, a decade of success that ranks among the best-ever runs in Texas high school football history.

Allen is a juggernaut, in the truest sense. And so is its high school.

Allen has nearly 6,700 students from 9th to 12th grade -- the largest high school in the state by 1,000 students -- and one of the largest in the nation.

Wait till he finds out that there are *inner city districts all over the country (outside of Indiana) that have teams who dominate at the state level with 80-90% of the school population on f/r lunch.

*I suspect he already knows however. 

44 minutes ago, BLACKGOLD2007 said:

Is it a cycle for this current batch of players in the school? Is it something being played out in the homes?  Could it be something within the program itself that is causing the teams to be not as competitive to their normal standards? 

High school football talent is almost ALWAYS cyclical. 

[temptation]

26 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Wait till he finds out that there are *inner city districts all over the country (outside of Indiana) that have teams who dominate at the state level with 80-90% of the school population on f/r lunch.

*I suspect he already knows however. 

High school football talent is almost ALWAYS cyclical. 

Exceptions to every rule.  Come work in the hood and tell me that all schools are created equal based upon enrollment, feeder programs and "culture", lol.

Edited October 24, 2023 by temptation

[GOLDRUSH1985]

51 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

I think these are great questions and illustrates the point that its more than about size....possibly several factors, not to mention a culture change.  Penn has dominated in baseball recently with back to back state champions.  Why is that?  What is driving baseball success?  To your point, I think several factors have to be evaluated.

What is driving  baseball is longtime coach Greg Dikos(6 State Titles) . He has created a program at Penn that resembles what Chris Geesman had for football . And it starts with Youth programs . Harris youth Baseball has been one of the best in the state/midwest for years. Same for the girls softball program . If Penn's administration is not willing to make a change  , then I wish the coaches would , because they have been blown out too many times in big games. 

[Footballking16]

30 minutes ago, temptation said:

Exceptions to every rule.  Come work in the hood and tell me that all schools are created equal based upon enrollment, feeder programs and "culture", lol.

Which hood?

[Grover]

1 hour ago, Footballking16 said:

Carmel's youth programs, especially at the Junior High level, is in shambles I've been told. Participation numbers are significantly down and the most affluent of the Junior High's had some of the lowest numbers they've ever seen. There seems to be some real disconnect between the high school program and the junior high feeder schools. How much of that lies solely on the varsity coaching staff can be debated but it's definitely factoring in to their recent lack of success. 

Their IEFA teams have struggled lately despite the pedigree of their coaches. 

[foxbat]

2 hours ago, Bash Riprock said:

Where can I go to review these schools "disadvantaged population" percentages assuming one buys into your  "socioeconomic" theory?

In your mind, Carmel is really screwed for football.  Too many "soft wealthy kids" contribute to a much too large student body.  

Getting back to your theory that 5000+ students is the kiss of death for football success, ever hear of Allen High School in Texas?  

https://www.dallasnews.com/high-school-sports/2018/12/13/allen-is-the-ultimate-one-school-town-its-football-team-is-a-juggernaut-is-a-mega-high-school-fair-for-the-rest-of-texas/#:~:text=Allen has won five state,Texas high school football history.&text=And the school could get,if the cards fall right.

The school's football team -- the defending state champs in Texas' largest classification -- just won its 30th straight game. Since the program made national news by opening its $60 million stadium in 2012, the Eagles haven't lost at home.

Allen has won five state football titles over the last 10 years, a decade of success that ranks among the best-ever runs in Texas high school football history.

Allen is a juggernaut, in the truest sense. And so is its high school.

Allen has nearly 6,700 students from 9th to 12th grade -- the largest high school in the state by 1,000 students -- and one of the largest in the nation.

This is a school district that looks very similar to Carmel.  Singular high school that grew organically to its size.  Sitting north of a major metropolitan area.  Close enough for all the benefit and far enough north to mitigate the problems.  Small, singular community feel with lots of resources at its disposal.  Old stomping grounds before moving up this way ... less than 5 minutes from the high school ... takes about 10 minutes now with all the traffic.  Incidentally, FRL is roughly around 12% there.

[WestfieldRocks]

16 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

I disagree with Temp that having 5,000 students is a detriment, but do agree in a sense that at some point enrollment becomes redundant/irrelevant. If you have 2500-3000 kids in your school and can’t find 60-80 boys to field a competitive football team, that’s on you.

Ha! We use to say that when my son ran track and CC. We were always in the same invitationals, sectional, regional, and semi-state (now no longer), so we ran against them quite often.  Back then we'd have maybe 15 boys and a few more than that on the girls team, Carmel would roll out almost 100 kids for a CC meet. Since only 7 run varsity, that left about 90 kids running the open JV race at every meet. I'd think it would have been frustrating to be able to run less than a 16 minute 5K and never make the varsity, whereas on our boy's team, those kids would have been the top runners. 

[temptation]

13 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Which hood?

Any hood.  Compare the roughly 2000-2500 students at CG, Tech, Perry and Southport and tell me that the latter three just simply need to dedicate more time to their youth/feeder programs, build a culture, and hire the right guy, lol.

 

[Footballking16]

1 minute ago, temptation said:

Any hood.  Compare the roughly 2000-2500 students at CG, Tech, Perry and Southport and tell me that the latter three just simply need to dedicate more time to their youth/feeder programs, build a culture, and hire the right guy, lol.

 

Why do you have to go to the most extremes? CG is the pinnacle of Indiana High School Football. I'm not asking Tech, Perry, or Southport to become the best high school football program in the state nor do I think it's attainable.

But you're delusional if you don't think with the right support staff and commitment from the ground up that Tech could become more than a respectable football program. 

[temptation]

48 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Why do you have to go to the most extremes? CG is the pinnacle of Indiana High School Football. I'm not asking Tech, Perry, or Southport to become the best high school football program in the state nor do I think it's attainable.

But you're delusional if you don't think with the right support staff and commitment from the ground up that Tech could become more than a respectable football program. 

Because you make it seem like hood schools/schools with obvious barriers just need to “try harder” and they could be dominant football programs.

Does the ground up include home life?  So many variables beyond a coaches’ control at a place like Tech.

I’ve said it before…Nick Saban couldn’t win a state title at Tech.  There’s a reason they cycle through coaches every 2-3 years.

Edited October 24, 2023 by temptation

[Footballking16]

2 minutes ago, temptation said:

Because you make it seem like hood schools/schools with obvious barriers just need to “try harder” and they could be dominant football programs.

I've never used the word dominant, EVER, when describing a possible future for a program like Tech. More like "better" or "more competitive". Again you're reaching.

4 minutes ago, temptation said:

Does the ground up include home life?  So many variables beyond a coaches’ control at a place like Tech.

It can stretch to whatever necessary measure. If East St. Louis can put together a nationally rated football program, Tech certainly can win 6 or 7 games once in a blue moon. One school district tries, the other doesn't. 

 

6 minutes ago, temptation said:

I’ve said it before…Nick Saban couldn’t win a state title at Tech.  There’s a reason they cycle through coaches every 2-3 years.

Nick Saban didn't win anything until he went to LSU, you know a school with a proud tradition who is all-in. 

[temptation]

1 minute ago, Footballking16 said:

I've never used the word dominant, EVER, when describing a possible future for a program like Tech. More like "better" or "more competitive". Again you're reaching.

It can stretch to whatever necessary measure. If East St. Louis can put together a nationally rated football program, Tech certainly can win 6 or 7 games once in a blue moon. One school district tries, the other doesn't. 

 

Nick Saban didn't win anything until he went to LSU, you know a school with a proud tradition who is all-in. 

Can I hear more details about how Tech could “try harder?”

Look, when 80+% of your students come from broken/single parent homes, it’s an uphill battle that is damn near impossible without some sort of enrollment advantage (see BD/Warren).  You just have to see it to believe it…and you can’t.  You can’t even wrap your mind around it.

Correct on Saban.  Why couldn’t he win consistently at Michigan State?  Did they not “try hard enough?”  Did he all of a sudden attend a coaching clinic and  become a legend once he entered the SEC?  Why’d he fail in the NFL?

[Footballking16]

5 minutes ago, temptation said:

Can I hear more details about how Tech could “try harder?”

Implement some kind of youth/feeder program sponsored by the IPS. Make Tech an attractive high school again. If every Tech district player didn't play for X private school or X Twp school and instead actually played at Tech, your attitude about Tech not being to compete would drastically change because you and I both know better. But because IPS doesn't care, why should any Tech area kid care to play there? It's a two-way street. I've given you plenty of examples over the years of other inner-city districts around the country all fielding highly competitive football teams all with lesser enrollments and similar f/r lunch participants. I suggest Tech start there.