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Using Sagarin's ratings from 1999 through 2024, I've calculated a Top 100 list and Top 25 lists for each class. But how do you compare between years? The calculations are made assuming that the average team in any given year is equivalent. With that defined, we then look at how much better a team in a given year is than the average predictor rating for that year. I'm curious to hear your feedback. The ratings do not account for any kind of overall "improvement" (Is the average team in 2024 better than the average team in 1999) so earlier years receive no kind of handicap which I may consider introducing... Based on what I've seen, this is very minimal, but it's difficult to quantify. Also, I've updated The Predictor Tool, so you can predict any potential matchup from 1999 to 2024. Enjoy! ---------- Global Top 100 (All Years & Classes) ---------- 1. 2017 Ben Davis (6A) 77.9 2. 2018 Warren Central (6A) 77.4 3. 2020 Center Grove (6A) 75.2 4. 2001 Ben Davis (5A) 69.6 5. 2016 Center Grove (6A) 69.5 6. 2016 Warren Central (6A) 69.1 7. 2021 Center Grove (6A) 68.3 8. 2005 Warren Central (5A) 68.2 9. 2011 Carmel (5A) 67.7 10. 2020 Indpls.Cathedral (5A) 67.5 11. 2006 Warren Central (5A) 66.1 12. 2016 Ben Davis (6A) 66.0 13. 2014 Ben Davis (6A) 65.8 14. 2017 Warren Central (6A) 65.7 15. 2015 Center Grove (6A) 65.0 16. 2014 Warren Central (6A) 64.6 17. 2014 Carmel (6A) 63.9 18. 2001 Warren Central (5A) 62.1 19. 2011 Warren Central (5A) 62.0 20. 2015 Avon (6A) 61.9 21. 2018 Center Grove (6A) 61.8 22. 2019 Carmel (6A) 61.5 23. 2003 Warren Central (5A) 61.5 24. 2018 New Palestine (5A) 61.4 25. 2015 Carmel (6A) 61.3 26. 2013 Center Grove (6A) 61.1 27. 2017 Avon (6A) 61.0 28. 2015 Indpls.Cathedral (6A) 61.0 29. 2019 Avon (6A) 61.0 30. 2012 Lawr. Central (5A) 60.9 31. 2023 Ben Davis (6A) 60.6 32. 2013 Carmel (6A) 60.5 33. 2019 Brownsburg (6A) 60.1 34. 2021 Westfield (6A) 60.0 35. 2022 Brownsburg (6A) 59.8 36. 2020 Westfield (6A) 59.7 37. 2013 Ben Davis (6A) 59.7 38. 2013 Warren Central (6A) 59.6 39. 2021 Indpls.Cathedral (5A) 59.6 40. 2015 Warren Central (6A) 59.2 41. 2016 Carmel (6A) 59.2 42. 2013 Pike (6A) 59.1 43. 2019 New Palestine (5A) 59.1 44. 2019 Indpls. Chatard (3A) 58.6 45. 2014 Center Grove (6A) 58.4 46. 2021 Hamilton SE (6A) 58.3 47. 2019 Center Grove (6A) 58.2 48. 2023 Brownsburg (6A) 57.7 49. 2020 Carmel (6A) 57.5 50. 2018 Carmel (6A) 57.5 51. 2017 Center Grove (6A) 57.4 52. 2015 Penn (6A) 57.1 53. 2012 Ben Davis (5A) 57.1 54. 2011 Ben Davis (5A) 57.1 55. 2014 Indpls.Cathedral (5A) 57.1 56. 2011 Indpls. Cathedral (4A) 56.7 57. 2012 Center Grove (5A) 56.7 58. 2012 Carmel (5A) 56.4 59. 2004 FW Snider (5A) 56.1 60. 2019 Warren Central (6A) 55.9 61. 2023 East Central (4A) 55.8 62. 2020 Brownsburg (6A) 55.7 63. 2014 New Palestine (4A) 55.4 64. 2022 Indy Cathedral (6A) 55.4 65. 2002 Warren Central (5A) 55.3 66. 2015 Ben Davis (6A) 55.3 67. 2021 Brownsburg (6A) 55.1 68. 2019 Ben Davis (6A) 55.1 69. 2014 Penn (6A) 55.0 70. 2022 Hamilton SE (6A) 54.9 71. 2024 Westfield (6A) 54.8 72. 2022 Center Grove (6A) 54.7 73. 2015 New Palestine (5A) 54.7 74. 2011 Lawr. Central (5A) 54.5 75. 2016 Westfield (5A) 54.2 76. 2023 Center Grove (6A) 54.1 77. 2024 Brownsburg (6A) 54.0 78. 2018 Avon (6A) 53.9 79. 2024 Lawr. North (6A) 53.9 80. 2012 Indpls. Cathedral (4A) 53.9 81. 2023 Indy Cathedral (6A) 53.4 82. 2019 Hamilton SE (6A) 53.4 83. 2014 Avon (6A) 53.4 84. 2024 New Palestine (4A) 53.4 85. 2012 Warren Central (5A) 53.4 86. 2016 FW Snider (5A) 53.3 87. 2019 Indpls.Cathedral (5A) 53.2 88. 2017 Pike (6A) 53.2 89. 1999 Ben Davis (5A) 53.0 90. 2008 Center Grove (5A) 53.0 91. 2017 Brownsburg (6A) 53.0 92. 2016 Indpls.Cathedral (6A) 52.9 93. 2014 Lawr. Central (6A) 52.9 94. 2007 Columbus North (5A) 52.9 95. 2017 Lawr. Central (6A) 52.8 96. 2021 Carmel (6A) 52.6 97. 2012 Indpls. Chatard (3A) 52.5 98. 2002 Penn (5A) 52.5 99. 2021 Merrillville (6A) 52.4 100. 2020 Indpls. Chatard (3A) 52.4 -------------------------------------------------------- ---------- Top 25 - Class 1A ---------- 1. 2015 Lafayette CC (44.4) 2. 2018 Pioneer (41.9) 3. 2022 Indy Lutheran (41.1) 4. 2015 Pioneer (38.2) 5. 2016 Linton (35.7) 6. 2023 Indy Lutheran (35.4) 7. 2011 Lafayette CC (33.9) 8. 2022 Adams Central (33.8) 9. 2014 Pioneer (33.4) 10. 2023 Adams Central (33.1) 11. 2021 Adams Central (32.7) 12. 2009 Lafayette CC (32.2) 13. 2020 Covenant Chr. (31.9) 14. 1999 Lafayette CC (31.8) 15. 2017 Pioneer (31.6) 16. 2012 Lafayette CC (31.5) 17. 2004 Seeger (31.4) 18. 2021 Indpls. Lutheran (30.8) 19. 2014 Winamac (30.3) 20. 2016 Lafayette CC (29.8) 21. 2018 Adams Central (29.7) 22. 2020 South Adams (29.4) 23. 2024 North Judson (29.1) 24. 2010 Lafayette CC (29.0) 25. 2024 Providence (28.6) -------------------------------------------------------- ---------- Top 25 - Class 2A ---------- 1. 2001 FW Luers (51.5) 2. 2000 Ev. Mater Dei (46.3) 3. 2001 Ev. Mater Dei (43.4) 4. 2000 FW Luers (42.5) 5. 2011 FW Luers (39.9) 6. 2012 FW Luers (37.9) 7. 2012 Indpls. Ritter (36.2) 8. 2005 Jimtown (36.2) 9. 2000 Jimtown (35.9) 10. 2010 FW Luers (35.7) 11. 2018 Western Boone (35.7) 12. 1999 Ev. Mater Dei (34.9) 13. 2014 Rensselaer (34.9) 14. 1999 FW Luers (33.9) 15. 2011 Ev. Mater Dei (33.7) 16. 2019 Lewis Cass (33.5) 17. 2001 Jimtown (33.2) 18. 2015 Monrovia (32.5) 19. 2013 Indpls. Ritter (31.7) 20. 2006 Harding (31.4) 21. 2014 Lafayette CC (31.2) 22. 2017 Eastbrook (31.1) 23. 2024 Adams Central (31.0) 24. 2002 North Judson (30.9) 25. 2012 Ev. Mater Dei (30.6) -------------------------------------------------------- ---------- Top 25 - Class 3A ---------- 1. 2019 Indpls. Chatard (58.6) 2. 2012 Indpls. Chatard (52.5) 3. 2020 Indpls. Chatard (52.4) 4. 2017 West Lafayette (49.5) 5. 2021 Gibson Southern (49.1) 6. 2011 Indpls. Chatard (45.2) 7. 2018 Ev. Memorial (45.0) 8. 2018 West Lafayette (44.9) 9. 2016 FW Concordia (44.9) 10. 2015 Indpls. Chatard (44.5) 11. 2006 Norwell (44.2) 12. 2018 Indpls. Chatard (44.2) 13. 2023 Indy Chatard (43.5) 14. 2024 Heritage Hills (43.4) 15. 1999 I. Roncalli (43.0) 16. 2017 Gibson Southern (42.7) 17. 2010 Indpls. Chatard (42.6) 18. 2003 Indpls. Chatard (41.9) 19. 2019 West Lafayette (41.2) 20. 2022 Indy Chatard (41.1) 21. 2006 Indpls. Chatard (40.7) 22. 2022 West Lafayette (39.8) 23. 2021 Brebeuf Jesuit (39.4) 24. 2005 Griffith (39.3) 25. 2022 Norwell (38.8) -------------------------------------------------------- ---------- Top 25 - Class 4A ---------- 1. 2011 Indpls. Cathedral (56.7) 2. 2023 East Central (55.8) 3. 2014 New Palestine (55.4) 4. 2012 Indpls. Cathedral (53.9) 5. 2024 New Palestine (53.4) 6. 2006 Indpls. Cathedral (51.9) 7. 2020 Indpls. Roncalli (51.5) 8. 2014 Columbus East (50.6) 9. 2021 Indpls. Roncalli (50.5) 10. 2022 New Palestine (49.8) 11. 2007 Indpls. Cathedral (47.4) 12. 2009 FW Dwenger (46.1) 13. 2015 FW Dwenger (46.0) 14. 2022 East Central (46.0) 15. 2010 FW Dwenger (45.8) 16. 2009 Ev. Reitz (45.5) 17. 2010 Indpls. Cathedral (45.2) 18. 2006 Concord (45.0) 19. 1999 I. Cathedral (44.9) 20. 2022 Indy Roncalli (44.4) 21. 2018 FW Dwenger (44.3) 22. 2020 Mooresville (44.3) 23. 2024 Indy Chatard (43.7) 24. 2000 East Noble (43.6) 25. 2008 Indpls. Cathedral (43.6) -------------------------------------------------------- ---------- Top 25 - Class 5A ---------- 1. 2001 Ben Davis (69.6) 2. 2005 Warren Central (68.2) 3. 2011 Carmel (67.7) 4. 2020 Indpls.Cathedral (67.5) 5. 2006 Warren Central (66.1) 6. 2001 Warren Central (62.1) 7. 2011 Warren Central (62.0) 8. 2003 Warren Central (61.5) 9. 2018 New Palestine (61.4) 10. 2012 Lawr. Central (60.9) 11. 2021 Indpls.Cathedral (59.6) 12. 2019 New Palestine (59.1) 13. 2012 Ben Davis (57.1) 14. 2011 Ben Davis (57.1) 15. 2014 Indpls.Cathedral (57.1) 16. 2012 Center Grove (56.7) 17. 2012 Carmel (56.4) 18. 2004 FW Snider (56.1) 19. 2002 Warren Central (55.3) 20. 2015 New Palestine (54.7) 21. 2011 Lawr. Central (54.5) 22. 2016 Westfield (54.2) 23. 2012 Warren Central (53.4) 24. 2016 FW Snider (53.3) 25. 2019 Indpls.Cathedral (53.2) -------------------------------------------------------- ---------- Top 25 - Class 6A ---------- 1. 2017 Ben Davis (77.9) 2. 2018 Warren Central (77.4) 3. 2020 Center Grove (75.2) 4. 2016 Center Grove (69.5) 5. 2016 Warren Central (69.1) 6. 2021 Center Grove (68.3) 7. 2016 Ben Davis (66.0) 8. 2014 Ben Davis (65.8) 9. 2017 Warren Central (65.7) 10. 2015 Center Grove (65.0) 11. 2014 Warren Central (64.6) 12. 2014 Carmel (63.9) 13. 2015 Avon (61.9) 14. 2018 Center Grove (61.8) 15. 2019 Carmel (61.5) 16. 2015 Carmel (61.3) 17. 2013 Center Grove (61.1) 18. 2017 Avon (61.0) 19. 2015 Indpls.Cathedral (61.0) 20. 2019 Avon (61.0) 21. 2023 Ben Davis (60.6) 22. 2013 Carmel (60.5) 23. 2019 Brownsburg (60.1) 24. 2021 Westfield (60.0) 25. 2022 Brownsburg (59.8) --------------------------------------------------------

But less recency bias in Class 2A which along with classes 2A-4A typically are the most competitive, meaning the teams have ratings more normally distributed and ratings closer to the mean than 5A-6A and 1A.

I'm taking either of the 05 or 06 Warren teams over the field.

Have fun! https://www.ihsaa.org/sites/default/files/documents/Boys Track Records Book_1.pdf

So you can't compare Sagarin predictor or overall ratings directly between years. So, the normalization is based on the assumption that the average team in any given year is equivalent to that of another year. To calculate the average predictor rating for a given year, we find a fancy "Winsorized mean" that arbitrarily ignores the top and bottom 2.5 percent of teams. Then it's a simple calculation of SAGARIN PREDICTOR RATING - WINSORIZED MEAN to get the ADJUSTED PREDICTOR RATING.

1 to Ben Davis, 1 to Ritter that I am aware of.

one of the great disappointments ......Saint Joesph's College, was they hired awesome people and coaches...... problem was they were always like 25-30 year old.....NO TEENAGE KIDS !!!! Like Center Grove years ago, Franklin College hires a fella neamed YEAST, bring his son obviously, that son played 1 year at Center Grove (already a known recruit) and is currently in the NFL. yeah. Thanks Saint Joe!!! Could not offere a job to Coach Yeast??

Michael ‘Sideshow’ Cain linebacker from Hamilton Heights heading to Fargo as well! He’ll be wrestling at Wabash College next fall.

Maybe they will draw Anderson :)

Because AC moved up due to enrollment, not Success Factor. The confusion was caused by them technically earning a Success Factor bump at the same time that their enrollment moved them up.

Enrollment classifications are done every two years. Success Factor is a rolling two-year cycle. I'm not sure that can be made any more clear.

None of the Sheridan teams from 2005-2007 on the list is wild. It is what it is I guess.

The DC placement will tell you all need to know about the ishaa, let’s do the easiest thing with the least amount of work.

Agreed. Or move Warren into LC/LN/WC. That was strange to me. Kind of lazy on IHSAA in my opinion. Also, 5A with 33 schools..?? I was under the impression they would drop the lowest 5A into 4A. Especially since there are 2 sectionals with only 7 schools in 4A now.