Predict a Matchup Tool

[hhpatriot04]

Hello Community,

I've revived the Indiana High School Football Game Predictor Tool that strictly uses Jeff Sagarin's predictor rating and the option of factoring in homefield advantage. Keep in mind that Sagarin only uses direct data from Indiana teams vs. other Indiana teams (no out-of-state games).

For improvements, please let me know in this thread if you find errors in computation or otherwise or layout or if you have general feature requests/improvements.

Enjoy!

Win probability (percentage) is added.

[SoIndRef]

Thanks!!

[Mebuck]

Thank you for sharing this. 

[Staxawax]

South Adams (71.79) is a 2-point favorite (1.51-point home-field advantage) against Homestead (68.32)

 

Perfect!

[BendNotBreak]

On 9/22/2019 at 1:46 AM, Staxawax said:

South Adams (71.79) is a 2-point favorite (1.51-point home-field advantage) against Homestead (68.32)

 

Perfect!

Homestead is now a 35pt fav over South Adams......  🤫

[hhpatriot04]

I am thinking of using Sagarin's ratings to show the percentage that Team A beats Team B (perhaps with a guessed score and future projections using scoring averages)... Any interest in that? Also, does anyone have a degree in statistiics or finite math? If so, please message or post here.

[hhpatriot04]

No idea how the cancellations will affect the rankings. Out-of-state games were never counted, but now it will take until Week 5-6 for all teams in the state to be "connected" and Sagarin's ratings to be relevant, IMO.

[Mebuck]

It won't open for me. Is it down?

[itiswhatitis]

Just exactly where is this thing?  I can't find it.

[hhpatriot04]

I let the subscription to the host server lapse. Let me see if I can find another free one (needs PHP & MYSQL), or if @DK_Barons can setup up gridirondigest.net/predictor like we used to.

I appreciate the interest, but likely until Week 6 this year, Sagarin's rankings will be pretty much useless because of all the cancellations, thus it'll take a few more weeks to get all the teams in the state "connected," which is when his ratings become increasingly trustworthly. Who knows, if unfortunately the tournament doesn't happen for some reason, we may need some TGD junkies to simulate what the tournaments would look like... Back to the pre-tournament, polling days.

 

[NPCougarNation]

For some reason I cannot access the link to the tool.  Can you send it in a reply?

[stryker]

Any luck reviving this?

[NPCougarNation]

2 hours ago, stryker said:

Any luck reviving this?

No luck

[hhpatriot04]

On 9/14/2020 at 3:09 AM, stryker said:

Any luck reviving this?

In communications with DK, hope to have time this weekend to work on it.

[dazed and confused]

..... still not working.... for me anyhows

[hhpatriot04]

13 hours ago, dazed and confused said:

..... still not working.... for me anyhows

There's progress... Although, I was quite sick this weekend and not able to work on it. http://predictor.gridirondigest.net  (Yes I know it's not functional)

Quick hint: Just go to Sagarin's website, use the predictor value of both teams and find the difference. That is all this little script is doing (you can add in the home field advantage which varies every week if you want)

[dazed and confused]

22 minutes ago, hhpatriot04 said:

There's progress... Although, I was quite sick this weekend and not able to work on it. http://predictor.gridirondigest.net  (Yes I know it's not functional)

Quick hint: Just go to Sagarin's website, use the predictor value of both teams and find the difference. That is all this little script is doing (you can add in the home field advantage which varies every week if you want)

Thanks hh ! Thanks for the hint but JH already does that in his game capsules for upcoming games I believe

[hhpatriot04]

1 hour ago, dazed and confused said:

Thanks hh ! Thanks for the hint but JH already does that in his game capsules for upcoming games I believe

Is it different than the "JH Prediction?" I haven't figured that one out yet, but it definitely doesn't strictly use Sagarin's ratings -- or in the way my predictor does/did/will.

[tango]

On 9/27/2020 at 9:30 AM, hhpatriot04 said:

Is it different than the "JH Prediction?" I haven't figured that one out yet, but it definitely doesn't strictly use Sagarin's ratings -- or in the way my predictor does/did/will.

JH has his own calculation.  I saw a tweet referring to it a few weeks back.  

[hhpatriot04]

The predictor tool is back. Sorry for any inconvenience. Let me know if you find any bugs (typically because of team names).

[hhpatriot04]

Win probability (percentage) is added.

[hhpatriot04]

What feature would you like to see first: 

1. Project games across seasons?

2. Projections for every game each week? 

[Esso Ayche]

On 9/21/2022 at 1:17 PM, hhpatriot04 said:

What feature would you like to see first: 

1. Project games across seasons?

2. Projections for every game each week? 

First preference, with absolutely the bare minimum of thought behind it:  Project across seasons.

Second and foremost:  Projections for every game each week.

But I could be persuaded to flip those choices like a White Castle slider on a hot griddle in Hell. (Sorry, been a long week today and I'm already getting punch-drunk.  I don't even know what that last sentence means beyond, "Eh, either would be cool.")

Unsolicited advice:  If you're like me, you tackle the easy one first and get it almost done to then abandon it and dig in heavily into the one you haven't started yet until you have two that aren't done.  That's just me, you do you.  (Again, see above re: long week today.)

[Mebuck]

The link is not working.

[hhpatriot04]

16 minutes ago, Mebuck said:

The link is not working.

I just noticed. Thanks.

It is seemingly tied with the server restart.

I'll do some digging and hope to have it back soon.