The Coronavirus - a virus from eating bats, an accident or something sinister gone wrong?

[Bobref]

35 minutes ago, Howe said:

The liberal mainstream media is indeed fake news. Their approval rating is terrible. Of course, Fox is also fake news too. I haven't posted any Limbaugh articles or videos. He is too much like Glen Beck.  I am unable to watch more than a few minutes of Hannity without turning the channel. I rarely post his videos. I do watch Tucker Carlson of Fox News and frequently post his videos. I do post a lot of videos and opinions from far left podcasts. I spend a lot more time gathering information and opinions from the far left than Limbaugh or Hannity.

I have previously stated my definition of a libtard as typically a perfectly intelligent individual who suffers from Trump Derangement Syndrome and fails to apply common sense. My sister is a microbiologist. Her husband is a pathologist. Both are perfectly intelligent and highly educated yet are libtards who still drink the Russia hoax and Mueller Dossier kool aid. I have 13 other siblings and we all think she has lost her mind. I have little tolerance for this type of mentality.

Thank you for the advise.

I have no doubt your thought process is a well-considered one. It just doesn’t come off that way sometimes due to the phraseology. When you use all those catch phrases, it’s just too easy to assume you’re the conservative equivalent of a “libtard,” and dismiss your point of view without considering it.

[swordfish]

18 hours ago, swordfish said:

https://www.wdrb.com/in-depth/deaths-from-covid-19-spike-in-indiana/article_d418a624-83e7-11ea-8ca3-070ba6d2ec4e.html

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- Indiana reported a surge in COVID-19 deaths Tuesday, an increase that comes a day after a top health official said the state would start disclosing cases of Hoosiers who also presumably died from the illness.

The 61 new deaths -- ranging between April 7 and Monday -- are the most announced in a single day since the first death was confirmed in mid-March. That accounts for just under 10 percent of the state's total fatalities related to the infection.

The previous one-day high was 55 deaths on April 15. In all, 630 Hoosiers have died after contracting the respiratory disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. 

Indiana reported 431 new cases of COVID-19. That's lower than the 505 new infections included in Monday's statewide data, but the Indiana State Department of Health said in a news release that the new figure is likely lower than the actual number of new cases. 

"The new cases and new tests reported today are lower than expected due to a technology issue and should not be interpreted as a decline in new infections," the department said in a news release. "The additional positive cases not included in today’s report will be captured in the coming days and reflected appropriately."

Indiana's health commissioner, Dr. Kristina Box, said Monday the state would begin listing presumptive COVID-19 deaths this week to better reflect the scope of the illness. Those deaths will include people who weren't diagnosed but died after likely contracting it, according to medical experts. 

 

Presumptive....?  Well isn't that convenient........It's almost like States need to get the numbers higher, but why?  Maybe to get closer to the 60,000 "target" the country is having trouble reaching?  Or maybe the states get more funding with more deaths?  

"He got hit by a bus, but since he was having trouble breathing on his own when he died, it must be Coronovirus related...."

 

[Howe]

I work in a large manufacturing plant with over 1,000 employees. The plant is union represented. The company cannot force employees to wear a mask. About 70% do not wear a mask. The 6' social distance rule is impossible on the assembly lines. Our plant has not shut down. Nurses record employees temperature upon arrival. I have friends who work at the Gerber baby food plant. They have not shut down either. Their assembly line workers are two feet apart and most do not wear masks.

Perhaps it would be beneficial to discover why this Bubonic Plaque hasn't killed everyone?

[Bobref]

1 hour ago, Howe said:

I work in a large manufacturing plant with over 1,000 employees. The plant is union represented. The company cannot force employees to wear a mask. About 70% do not wear a mask. The 6' social distance rule is impossible on the assembly lines. Our plant has not shut down. Nurses record employees temperature upon arrival. I have friends who work at the Gerber baby food plant. They have not shut down either. Their assembly line workers are two feet apart and most do not wear masks.

Perhaps it would be beneficial to discover why this Bubonic Plaque hasn't killed everyone?

Perhaps you’d like to see what the professionals have to say about this. Not in a press conference. Not with a political agenda. Just doctor to doctor. My wife sent this to me. She’s a nurse practitioner and head of infection control at a Chicago Hospital.

https://www.practiceupdate.com/c/b5bf643b-c8c2-4989-a214-ba428701ad73?elsca1=soc_share-this-email&elsca2=social&elsca3=email

Published in Gastroenterology and 

11 other channels 

Expert Opinion / Commentary · April 21, 2020

COVID-19 – A Glimpse Into the Future

Written by

 

 Jonathan Temte MD, PhD

How can we see into the future? The simple answer is that we can’t. We are left only with guesses as to what may be. Some of these are educated and informed; others are wild speculation. It is the former that I will focus on today; informed predictions of what may happen with the global pandemic of COVID-19 in the coming weeks and months. At present, we have no vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 and no evidence-based therapeutics for COVID-19. What we do have are public health measures, such as “social distancing,” for prevention and medical interventions consisting of supportive care. Leveraging our public health tools, however, buys time for the development and testing of vaccines and therapeutics.

A very thoughtful and thorough projection is available, based on sophisticated modelling by Kissler and colleagues.1 Their efforts take into account the possible contributions of seasonality, duration of immunity, and cross-protection imparted by prior infection with the two other betacoronaviruses in common circulation (HKU1 and OC43). Then, they provide a variety of scenarios that simultaneously assess the effects of the length (4 weeks to indefinite) and strength (0–60% reductions in Ro) of social distancing. First some basics:

Seasonal coronaviruses are seasonal; they circulated primarily in the late autumn, winter and early spring months in temperate regions;

Immunity to HKU1 and OC43 wanes fairly rapidly, over the course of about a year;

Some cross-protection exists between these two viruses, and perhaps, extends to SARS-CoV-2;

Both of these seasonal coronaviruses are less infectious than SARS-CoV-2.

The modeling efforts lead to some interesting and some uncomfortable conclusions:

SARS-CoV-2 can proliferate at any time of the year (as we are seeing now across the globe);

If immunity is not permanent, SARS-CoV-2 will eventually enter into regular circulation as our fifth seasonal coronavirus;

If immunity is permanent (or very long-lasting), SARS-CoV-2 could disappear after a few years;

High levels of seasonality will lead to a smaller initial peak, but larger wintertime outbreaks;

Low levels of cross-protection from OC43 and HKU1 might allow resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 following a period of low activity lasting a few years.

When social distancing is added without seasonality, the following scenarios emerge:

Short durations of social distancing do little more than displace the cases into the near future;

Longer durations of higher-intensity social distancing effectively reduce case burden in the near term, but result in significant outbreaks during autumn and winter;

Permanent social distancing of moderate to high intensity works well to keep SARS-CoV-2 at bay (but would be unpalatable to almost all of us).

Finally, and what I think are the most likely projections, are of those with social distancing added into a seasonal world:

Short durations of social distancing slightly delay the peaks of COVID-19, but result in high overall infection rates;

Longer durations of social distancing push the peaks into the winter months and increase the overall infection rate;

Intermittent social distancing, based on good surveillance, may be needed to keep case load in check until vaccines are available or a sufficient percentage of the population has been infected, become immune, and herd effects take over.

I suspect our best choices here require a Faustian deal, buying time now at the expense of a future catastrophe, in the hope that effective therapeutics and vaccines become available and that critical data emerge regarding the extent of population immunity, duration of immunity, and its rate of decline. Perhaps the last and best words for COVID-19 predictions are those of Ebenezer Scrooge, “Are these the shadows of the things that Will be, or are they shadows of things that May be?”2  Only time will tell.

[Howe]

32 minutes ago, Bobref said:

Perhaps you’d like to see what the professionals have to say about this. Not in a press conference. Not with a political agenda. Just doctor to doctor. My wife sent this to me. She’s a nurse practitioner and head of infection control at a Chicago Hospital.

https://www.practiceupdate.com/c/b5bf643b-c8c2-4989-a214-ba428701ad73?elsca1=soc_share-this-email&elsca2=social&elsca3=email

Published in Gastroenterology and 

11 other channels 

Expert Opinion / Commentary · April 21, 2020

COVID-19 – A Glimpse Into the Future

Written by

 

 Jonathan Temte MD, PhD

How can we see into the future? The simple answer is that we can’t. We are left only with guesses as to what may be. Some of these are educated and informed; others are wild speculation. It is the former that I will focus on today; informed predictions of what may happen with the global pandemic of COVID-19 in the coming weeks and months. At present, we have no vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 and no evidence-based therapeutics for COVID-19. What we do have are public health measures, such as “social distancing,” for prevention and medical interventions consisting of supportive care. Leveraging our public health tools, however, buys time for the development and testing of vaccines and therapeutics.

A very thoughtful and thorough projection is available, based on sophisticated modelling by Kissler and colleagues.1 Their efforts take into account the possible contributions of seasonality, duration of immunity, and cross-protection imparted by prior infection with the two other betacoronaviruses in common circulation (HKU1 and OC43). Then, they provide a variety of scenarios that simultaneously assess the effects of the length (4 weeks to indefinite) and strength (0–60% reductions in Ro) of social distancing. First some basics:

Seasonal coronaviruses are seasonal; they circulated primarily in the late autumn, winter and early spring months in temperate regions;

Immunity to HKU1 and OC43 wanes fairly rapidly, over the course of about a year;

Some cross-protection exists between these two viruses, and perhaps, extends to SARS-CoV-2;

Both of these seasonal coronaviruses are less infectious than SARS-CoV-2.

The modeling efforts lead to some interesting and some uncomfortable conclusions:

SARS-CoV-2 can proliferate at any time of the year (as we are seeing now across the globe);

If immunity is not permanent, SARS-CoV-2 will eventually enter into regular circulation as our fifth seasonal coronavirus;

If immunity is permanent (or very long-lasting), SARS-CoV-2 could disappear after a few years;

High levels of seasonality will lead to a smaller initial peak, but larger wintertime outbreaks;

Low levels of cross-protection from OC43 and HKU1 might allow resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 following a period of low activity lasting a few years.

When social distancing is added without seasonality, the following scenarios emerge:

Short durations of social distancing do little more than displace the cases into the near future;

Longer durations of higher-intensity social distancing effectively reduce case burden in the near term, but result in significant outbreaks during autumn and winter;

Permanent social distancing of moderate to high intensity works well to keep SARS-CoV-2 at bay (but would be unpalatable to almost all of us).

Finally, and what I think are the most likely projections, are of those with social distancing added into a seasonal world:

Short durations of social distancing slightly delay the peaks of COVID-19, but result in high overall infection rates;

Longer durations of social distancing push the peaks into the winter months and increase the overall infection rate;

Intermittent social distancing, based on good surveillance, may be needed to keep case load in check until vaccines are available or a sufficient percentage of the population has been infected, become immune, and herd effects take over.

I suspect our best choices here require a Faustian deal, buying time now at the expense of a future catastrophe, in the hope that effective therapeutics and vaccines become available and that critical data emerge regarding the extent of population immunity, duration of immunity, and its rate of decline. Perhaps the last and best words for COVID-19 predictions are those of Ebenezer Scrooge, “Are these the shadows of the things that Will be, or are they shadows of things that May be?”2  Only time will tell.

Some interesting observations and "Expert Opinion" from Dr. Temte. Perhaps these observations and opinions should be peer review studied and forwarded to Dr. Fauci.

[Howe]

Some people have been out of work for 5 weeks and have yet to receive their stimulus or unemployment payments.

 

Edited April 22, 2020 by Howe

[Bobref]

21 minutes ago, Howe said:

Some interesting observations and "Expert Opinion" from Dr. Temte. Perhaps these observations and opinions should be peer review studied and forwarded to Dr. Fauci.

Feature articles in Practice Update are peer reviewed before publication. Dr. Temte is the former chair of the U.S. Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) in 2015

[gonzoron]

2 hours ago, Howe said:

They have not shut down either.

It pays to have friends in high Government offices.

[Howe]

3 minutes ago, gonzoron said:

It pays to have friends in high Government offices.

Gerber makes baby food. I realize most of the Democrats will continue to promote extended lockdowns and shutdowns. Perhaps babies should go without baby food.

[gonzoron]

5 minutes ago, Howe said:

Gerber makes baby food. I realize most of the Democrats will continue to promote extended lockdowns and shutdowns. Perhaps babies should go without baby food.

Is Gerber represented by the USW? I never realized that. I quoted the wrong sentence in your original post. My apologies.

Edited April 22, 2020 by gonzoron

[Howe]

10 minutes ago, gonzoron said:

Is Gerber represented by the USW? I never realized that.

No. 

[swordfish]

IMHO - If you are scared - stay home.  If not, go ahead and work.

[Howe]

USC coronavirus antibody study shows covid - 19 far more widespread, death rate much lower.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/20/coronavirus-antibody-study-shows-covid-19-far-more/

[Howe]

 

[Howe]

Bill Maher - "Trump calls you fake news. Don't make him be right".

 

[gonzoron]

Nanny Government will get to the bottom of things now. You can't even make this stuff up!:

 Former Labradoodle breeder tapped to lead U.S. pandemic task force

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-hhschief-speci/special-report-hhs-chief-azar-had-aide-former-dog-breeder-steer-pandemic-task-force-idUSKCN2243CE?fbclid=IwAR1MrXREWeNrhbKAdPSlYqxK7rBfhvM8POvIgR75u9pUeZhm11ChUYbYD7c

[Muda69]

Oil crisis amid coronavirus – for AOC and the left, it's just another political opportunity: https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/coronavirus-oil-crisis-left-political-opportunity-ben-shapiro

Quote

The price of oil futures has collapsed catastrophically. In fact, the prices collapsed into negative territory in the near term. This bizarre situation, prompted by lack of consumer demand and lack of storage facility, led the irrepressible Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., to tweet: "You absolutely love to see it. This along with record low-interest rates means it's the right time for a worker-led, mass investment in green infrastructure to save our planet."\

This tweet was too dumb even for her – an extraordinary bar, given her past commentary – and she deleted it. But she then reiterated the point in a follow-up tweet, characterizing the rock-bottom oil prices as a "key opportunity" to "create millions of jobs transitioning to renewable and clean energy."

The most obvious agenda item for those on the political left has been the growth of government. Dan Balz, chief correspondent of The Washington Post, drooled while saying: "For the first time, many Americans are looking to government for their very economic survival. In time, that could make them look at government differently." Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., wrote for The New York Times that the "unequal impact of the pandemic and economic collapse are forcing us to rethink the assumptions of our system."

Among those assumptions: the free market economy (Sanders terms the free market "the path of greed and unfettered capitalism"). The New York Times termed the coronavirus a "new frontier in the fight for civil rights" and quoted race hustler the Rev. Jesse Jackson, who is calling for a government commission to investigate the "racism and discrimination built into public policies" that result in racial health disparities.

Precisely this attitude – that every crisis is a new weapon in the war for more expansive government, and in favor of a complete rethinking of the constitutional bargain – will lead more and more Americans to view shutdown orders with skepticism. It is one thing to lock down populations on a bipartisan basis with clear goals – goals like preventing coronavirus patients from swamping the health care system. Most Americans will go along with that, and most Americans are willing to grant policymakers the benefit of the doubt.

But when politicians begin to reveal ulterior motives for such shutdowns, Americans begin to ask questions. When politicians simultaneously take measures that obviously do nothing to combat the coronavirus – measures like locking public parks where people are social distancing or banning Americans from buying gardening supplies but ensuring access to abortion remains fully available – Americans begin to wonder whether their politicians are trustworthy. And when politicians meet such questions with hysterical accusations that the questioners simply don't care about human life, Americans grow even more suspicious.

Crises require trust in authority. But authorities must earn our trust with well-founded, sensible policy. They must be transparent about what they are doing and why they are doing it. When authorities instead suggest openly that their agenda isn't solely curbing the coronavirus but remaking America along the lines of their own political priors, they lose our trust. And they should.

 

[Lysander]

This may have been posted previously but, as someone who thinks Norm McDonald is a comic genius, I couldn’t help but think of this song regarding bats (and coronavirus):

 

 

Apologies, if this doesn’t quite post....just hoping, at best, the link is correct (Gonzo knows I ride the short bus as regards technology).

Edited April 23, 2020 by Lysander

[Muda69]

Meat plant in Logansport to close after 146 employees test positive for coronavirus: https://www.indystar.com/story/news/health/2020/04/22/tyson-logansport-closes-meat-plant-shuts-down-due-coronavirus/3006225001/

Quote

The Tyson Fresh Meats plant in Logansport announced Wednesday that it will temporarily close, after 146 employees tested positive for the novel coronavirus. 

The hog slaughtering and processing facility, which according to Tyson produces 3 million pounds of pork daily, suspended production Monday to allow for additional cleaning and sanitizing. 

The facility reopened Tuesday and has been running at limited capacity due to lower worker attendance. The plant is expected to stop all production by Saturday.  

"The combination of worker absenteeism, COVID-19 cases and community concerns has resulted in a collective decision to close," said Steve Stouffer, group president of Tyson Fresh Meats, the beef-and-pork subsidiary of Tyson Foods. 

Cass County Health Department Administrator Serenity Alter said all remaining employees will start getting tested on Thursday. The hope is to get results back within several days, so that the facility can resume production. 

Alter said another 47 people in Cass County have tested positive for the coronavirus. Some of those can be traced back to Tyson employees. Alter said the Indiana State Department of Health is sending a strike team to the plant for assistance.  

“Closing facilities have serious implications to the national food supply for American families, local communities, growers and farmers,” Stouffer said. “When a facility closes, the availability of protein for consumers across the nation will only decrease."

Also on Wednesday, Tyson Foods suspended operations at one of its sites in Iowa amid the outbreak. The Waterloo, Iowa, plant is Tyson’s largest pork plant and accounts for approximately 4% of U.S. pork processing capacity. There are some 15 plants, located largely in the nation’s center, that make up nearly 60% of the country’s pork processing capacity.

Two of those 15 plants are in Indiana, including Tyson’s Logansport facility, which accounts for 3% of the U.S. pork processing capacity. There have been at least two confirmed cases of coronavirus at the Indiana Packers Corp. plant in Delphi — Indiana’s other major pork processing site. That plant remains open. Attempts to reach the Indiana Packers plant on Wednesday were not immediately successful.

Stouffer, of Tyson, said consumers will start to feel the impact at the grocery store as production slows. 

Across the country, meat-packing plants are shutting down after being hit by the pandemic. Some have dozens, if not hundreds, of confirmed cases. A Smithfield Foods facility in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, has become the nation’s largest coronavirus hotspot after reporting more than 640 confirmed cases of patients who either worked at the plant or had ties to those who did.

.....

Better stock up on beef, pork, and chicken if you haven't already. 

 

[Lysander]

9 minutes ago, Muda69 said:

Meat plant in Logansport to close after 146 employees test positive for coronavirus: https://www.indystar.com/story/news/health/2020/04/22/tyson-logansport-closes-meat-plant-shuts-down-due-coronavirus/3006225001/

Better stock up on beef, pork, and chicken if you haven't already. 

 

I have no plans on missing a meal.

 

 

[gonzoron]

1 minute ago, Lysander said:

I have no plans on missing a meal.

 

 

Pork chops have been hard to find since this all started.

[Muda69]

3 minutes ago, Lysander said:

I have no plans on missing a meal.

 

 

lol.  We have been ordering out more lately, while keeping the freezers well stocked, should restaurants start to close due to not be able to obtain product.

 

[swordfish]

We took delivery of 1/2 a cow about 2 weeks prior to the shut-down way back in March, and will be picking up a hog tomorrow we have been waiting for.  Feeling like Burger King - "We have the Meats".....

[gonzoron]

4 minutes ago, swordfish said:

We took delivery of 1/2 a cow about 2 weeks prior to the shut-down way back in March, and will be picking up a hog tomorrow we have been waiting for.  Feeling like Burger King - "We have the Meats".....

That's Arby's, but kudos for buying in bulk. I'm assuming that this is a local small business?

[swordfish]

29 minutes ago, gonzoron said:

That's Arby's, but kudos for buying in bulk. I'm assuming that this is a local small business?

I figured that out after I ran the jingle in my head a few times.  LOL.  Speaking of which, I have missed Arby's now that I think about it.....Yes, we always get livestock the from the same local guys and they use a local butcher house for that.  Soooo looking forward to some fresh bacon this weekend......