CoachGallogly Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 You shouldn't make a playoff format to fit outliers, they should largely be excluded from the calculus. 6A and 1A by nature of being at the end of the spectrums will have outliers, no way around that. A good rule of thumb is you'd like the top of the class to not be 2x the bottom team in a class. If you take 6A, and remove Carmel and BD, the top of the class is Warren at 3821, and the bottom is Valpo at 2054. That's within the window I see no issues. Now if you prescribe to the theory there are major issues in 6A (I don't, but let's say you do.) There are other ways the IHSAA can mix things up, the most obvious would be to get a little creative with sectional gerrymandering. For instance you could put Carmel, BD, North Central, and Pike in a district thats 1,2, 4, and 8 in enrollment all together. That would spice things up a bit more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bears62 Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 13 minutes ago, CoachGallogly said: You shouldn't make a playoff format to fit outliers, they should largely be excluded from the calculus. 6A and 1A by nature of being at the end of the spectrums will have outliers, no way around that. A good rule of thumb is you'd like the top of the class to not be 2x the bottom team in a class. If you take 6A, and remove Carmel and BD, the top of the class is Warren at 3821, and the bottom is Valpo at 2054. That's within the window I see no issues. Now if you prescribe to the theory there are major issues in 6A (I don't, but let's say you do.) There are other ways the IHSAA can mix things up, the most obvious would be to get a little creative with sectional gerrymandering. For instance you could put Carmel, BD, North Central, and Pike in a district thats 1,2, 4, and 8 in enrollment all together. That would spice things up a bit more. 3821 and 2054 is still pretty damn close to being 2x. And regardless, that is still a humongous difference, your window must be pretty big. That’s an entire large 5a school. I don’t see how you or anyone could say that isn’t an issue. And if you compare the true top and bottom it’s 5286 and 2054. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachGallogly Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bears62 said: 3821 and 2054 is still pretty damn close to being 2x. And regardless, that is still a humongous difference, your window must be pretty big. That’s an entire large 5a school. I don’t see how you or anyone could say that isn’t an issue. And if you compare the true top and bottom it’s 5286 and 2054. The gap is bigger for 1A. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trojanmp52 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 34 minutes ago, DT said: Imagine a Chesterton vs Jeffersonville or Laf Jeff vs Floyd Central 5a title game Or northrup vs Columbus North Why would I want to see teams with just barely winning records play for state titles. The more you add class the more you water down what you have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bears62 Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 (edited) 10 minutes ago, CoachGallogly said: The gap is bigger for 1A. 1a is separated by 3000 students? Going by percentage isn’t the right metric to go by for this. The little guys have a better chance to have a special team and overcome a 200-300 student difference than a bottom 6a team having a special team and overcoming a 1500+ student difference. 20 years straight an Indy school has won the state title in Indiana’s largest class. Does it need to get to 50 before you say there’s an issue? Indy will remain superior til the end of time. Least we could do is move the bottom 8 6a schools to 5a to give them a fair shot. Which would make 5a a lot more exciting Edited April 19, 2021 by Bears62 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachGallogly Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 I'd wager the 1A schools would disagree. 🙂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxbat Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 28 minutes ago, CoachGallogly said: You shouldn't make a playoff format to fit outliers, they should largely be excluded from the calculus. 6A and 1A by nature of being at the end of the spectrums will have outliers, no way around that. A good rule of thumb is you'd like the top of the class to not be 2x the bottom team in a class. If you take 6A, and remove Carmel and BD, the top of the class is Warren at 3821, and the bottom is Valpo at 2054. That's within the window I see no issues. Now if you prescribe to the theory there are major issues in 6A (I don't, but let's say you do.) There are other ways the IHSAA can mix things up, the most obvious would be to get a little creative with sectional gerrymandering. For instance you could put Carmel, BD, North Central, and Pike in a district thats 1,2, 4, and 8 in enrollment all together. That would spice things up a bit more. Like the Sectional of Death in 3A? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachGallogly Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, foxbat said: Like the Sectional of Death in 3A? Yes the IHSAA does have a history of it. The issue in 6A doesn't seem to do with the Indy schools, it has more to do with the non-Indy schools. The reality is there needs to be some revamping of the scheduling mechanics outside of Indy for the bigger schools. The depth of schedules just don't prepare them the same way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachGallogly Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 9/14 state finalists in 6A history have been Carmel, Warren, or BD. That's roughly 2/3 of the participants are from those 3 schools. Shrinking 6A to 24 teams, or 16 teams doesn't take BD, Carmel, and Warren down. Investing in your programs like BD, Carmel, and Warren does. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
temptation Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, CoachGallogly said: 9/14 state finalists in 6A history have been Carmel, Warren, or BD. That's roughly 2/3 of the participants are from those 3 schools. Shrinking 6A to 24 teams, or 16 teams doesn't take BD, Carmel, and Warren down. Investing in your programs like BD, Carmel, and Warren does. Gotcha. I’ll phone over to the Tech/Perry AD’s and tell them to “invest harder.” 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bears62 Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoachGallogly said: 9/14 state finalists in 6A history have been Carmel, Warren, or BD. That's roughly 2/3 of the participants are from those 3 schools. Shrinking 6A to 24 teams, or 16 teams doesn't take BD, Carmel, and Warren down. Investing in your programs like BD, Carmel, and Warren does. Huh? Are you a real football coach?? You just named 3 mega schools and implied all other 6a schools can be just as good. Merrillville, Valpo and Lafayette Jeff all have great football programs. They will probably never field a team that can beat Carmel without a serious enrollment boost. Let’s not completely ignore the advantage of having thousands of more kids to choose from lol. And shrinking 6a gives the teams at the bottom (aka the schools who are at the biggest disadvantage) a fair shake in 5a. That’s all. Carmel, BD and Warren aren’t going anywhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachGallogly Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 13 minutes ago, temptation said: Gotcha. I’ll phone over to the Tech/Perry AD’s and tell them to “invest harder.” Do you believe Tech and Perry have invested in competing at the same level as those other 3? If yes then we have issues, if not then we don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachGallogly Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Bears62 said: Huh? Are you a real football coach?? You just named 3 mega schools and implied all other 6a schools can be just as good. Merrillville, Valpo and Lafayette Jeff all have great football programs. They will probably never field a team that can beat Carmel without a serious enrollment boost. Let’s not completely ignore the advantage of having thousands of more kids to choose from lol. And shrinking 6a gives the teams at the bottom (aka the schools who are at the biggest disadvantage) a fair shake in 5a. That’s all. Carmel, BD and Warren aren’t going anywhere. Center Grove has made it to the final four 10 of the last 11 years. It wasn't that long ago LC was in the finals 2 out of 3 years, and just whooping people. They are both in the bottom half of 6A. North Central, Lake Central, Avon, Noblesville, Crown Point, all have zero trips in the past 10 years, but are in the top 1/2 of 6A. Enrollment is not the overriding factor for each of their success or lack of success individually. There are many reasons schools succeed. Enrollment is one of those factors, but it is not the only factor, and often it's not even #1 on the list. The 3 mega outliers certainly have an extra advantage due to their size, nobody would argue that. But North Central is 98% of the size of Warren Central, and you have two very very different scenarios. It doesn't appear you are following me on this. Cutting 8 teams or 16 teams from 6A doesn't reduce the chances of the big 3 from winning. You're argument reeks of self-interest if you deny that fact. Edited April 19, 2021 by CoachGallogly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indiana Fan Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 1 hour ago, DT said: Take a look at the schools being pushed out of 6a with a new 24 school top class All are outside Indy Merrillville Warsaw Chesterton Jeffersonville Castle Columbus North Northrup Valpo None of these schools has a realistic chance at a 6a title They will all have new life and high hopes in 5A I guess you might as well start naming every team that hasn't made it in a long time. Valpo was in the 5 state finals 2 years ago and was in semi state last year anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DT Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 54 minutes ago, Trojanmp52 said: Why would I want to see teams with just barely winning records play for state titles. The more you add class the more you water down what you have. Don't you think the columbus North or Law Jeff or Chesterton and Merrillville fans would love to see their kids get a shot at a ring at Lucas Oil? Maybe you are becoming to used to it at CG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DT Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoachGallogly said: Center Grove has made it to the final four 10 of the last 11 years. It wasn't that long ago LC was in the finals 2 out of 3 years, and just whooping people. They are both in the bottom half of 6A. North Central, Lake Central, Avon, Noblesville, Crown Point, all have zero trips in the past 10 years, but are in the top 1/2 of 6A. Enrollment is not the overriding factor for each of their success or lack of success individually. There are many reasons schools succeed. Enrollment is one of those factors, but it is not the only factor, and often it's not even #1 on the list. The 3 mega outliers certainly have an extra advantage due to their size, nobody would argue that. But North Central is 98% of the size of Warren Central, and you have two very very different scenarios. It doesn't appear you are following me on this. Cutting 8 teams or 16 teams from 6A doesn't reduce the chances of the big 3 from winning. You're argument reeks of self-interest if you deny that fact. You surprise me. We can only fix what is fixable. Geography and enrollment are fixed attributes. The IHSAA has addressed enrollment every time they have added a class, and in the process doing everything possible to maintain competitive balance You can't wright off a program by calling it an outlier. That's just plain lazy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indiana Fan Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, DT said: Don't you think the columbus North or Law Jeff or Chesterton and Merrillville fans would love to see their kids get a shot at a ring at Lucas Oil? Maybe you are becoming to used to it at CG What is the difference between CG and columbus north enrollment? Maybe columbus needs to work to be able to compete. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
US31 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 12 minutes ago, CoachGallogly said: Center Grove has made it to the final four 10 of the last 11 years. It wasn't that long ago LC was in the finals 2 out of 3 years, and just whooping people. They are both in the bottom half of 6A. North Central, Lake Central, Avon, Noblesville, Crown Point, all have zero trips in the past 10 years, but are in the top 1/2 of 6A. Enrollment is not the overriding factor for each of their success or lack of success individually. There are many reasons schools succeed. Enrollment is one of those factors, but it is not the only factor, and often it's not even #1 on the list. The 3 mega outliers certainly have an extra advantage due to their size, nobody would argue that. But North Central is 98% of the size of Warren Central, and you have two very very different scenarios. It doesn't appear you are following me on this. Cutting 8 teams or 16 teams from 6A doesn't reduce the chances of the big 3 from winning. You're argument reeks of self-interest if you deny that fact. With respect I don't think reducing the big 3's chances is at all what he is talking about. I think he's talking about removing more of the 6A schools that will always have LESS of chance, and putting them into 5A. This limits 6A to just the schools that have MORE of a chance against the big 3 based on enrollment. Those may sound like the same thing to some, but to me they are different and I don't think that is being recognized. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
temptation Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 27 minutes ago, CoachGallogly said: Do you believe Tech and Perry have invested in competing at the same level as those other 3? If yes then we have issues, if not then we don't. Depends on your definition of “invest” I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bears62 Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 17 minutes ago, CoachGallogly said: Center Grove has made it to the final four 10 of the last 11 years. It wasn't that long ago LC was in the finals 2 out of 3 years, and just whooping people. They are both in the bottom half of 6A. North Central, Lake Central, Avon, Noblesville, Crown Point, all have zero trips in the past 10 years, but are in the top 1/2 of 6A. Enrollment is not the overriding factor for each of their success or lack of success individually. There are many reasons schools succeed. Enrollment is one of those factors, but it is not the only factor, and often it's not even #1 on the list. The 3 mega outliers certainly have an extra advantage due to their size, nobody would argue that. But North Central is 98% of the size of Warren Central, and you have two very very different scenarios. It doesn't appear you are following me on this. Cutting 8 teams or 16 teams from 6A doesn't reduce the chances of the big 3 from winning. You're argument reeks of self-interest if you deny that fact. Dude, no one is trying to stop the big 3 and CG from winning titles lol. They are the best and deserve to win. LITERALLY, the only point of dropping the bottom 8 of 6a out is because those teams at the bottom 8 are at a SERIOUS disadvantage. Nothing more, nothing less. Everyone knows the same schools are going to keep winning 6a. It’s why there has been additions of classes in the past. To make things as balanced as they can and give good football teams a chance on as level a playing field as they can. The top and bottom of 6a is far more lopsided than any other class. Not even an argument Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bears62 Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, US31 said: With respect I don't think reducing the big 3's chances is at all what he is talking about. I think he's talking about removing more of the 6A schools that will always have LESS of chance, and putting them into 5A. This limits 6A to just the schools that have MORE of a chance against the big 3 based on enrollment. Those may sound like the same thing to some, but to me they are different and I don't think that is being recognized. Exactly. Nothing more nothing less Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachGallogly Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 55 minutes ago, DT said: Don't you think the columbus North or Law Jeff or Chesterton and Merrillville fans would love to see their kids get a shot at a ring at Lucas Oil? Maybe you are becoming to used to it at CG Yes I'm sure that's the case at every high school. That's the beauty of the playoffs only 6 winners out of over 300 schools. 53 minutes ago, DT said: You surprise me. We can only fix what is fixable. Geography and enrollment are fixed attributes. The IHSAA has addressed enrollment every time they have added a class, and in the process doing everything possible to maintain competitive balance You can't wright off a program by calling it an outlier. That's just plain lazy No that's statistics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachGallogly Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 47 minutes ago, temptation said: Depends on your definition of “invest” I guess. Investment in high school football is incredibly measurable. From facility investment (weight room, AV capabilities), parent organizations, head coach salary and daily responsibilities, caliber of head coach, size of assistant coaching staff, funding of assistant coaching staff, caliber of assistant coaches, non conference scheduling, youth program organization and development, weight training courses in the daily school schedule All of these are crucial if you are doing all of these things at an elite level, then enrollment is like dumping gas on the fire, but if you are not doing all these things, and doing them well then enrollment is like dumping gas down a drain pipe 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachGallogly Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 45 minutes ago, Bears62 said: Dude, no one is trying to stop the big 3 and CG from winning titles lol. They are the best and deserve to win. LITERALLY, the only point of dropping the bottom 8 of 6a out is because those teams at the bottom 8 are at a SERIOUS disadvantage. Nothing more, nothing less. Everyone knows the same schools are going to keep winning 6a. It’s why there has been additions of classes in the past. To make things as balanced as they can and give good football teams a chance on as level a playing field as they can. The top and bottom of 6a is far more lopsided than any other class. Not even an argument Actually it's entirely about those three schools, because if they weren't winning at a high level this thread wouldn't exist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goose Liver Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 6 hours ago, Bobref said: Sort of like trying to make your case using Carmel, when it’s the largest school in the state by 800 kids. An aberration, as @DTpointed out. Sauce for the goose ... You rang ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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