What's going on at Carmel?

[Footballking16]

24-9 the last 3 years doesn't scream an immediate problem, but Carmel has seen each of its last two seasons end in the sectional rounds and they seem to be a shell of its former self. Carmel played for a state championship in 5 of the 7 years from 2013-2019 (won 2) and hasn't sniffed one since. If you subscribe to the idea the mega enrollment schools + low SES numbers=state contenders, then Carmel is failing miserably. Word on the street is that participation numbers are extremely low at 2/3 junior high so this may indicate a more widescale problem. 4-5 years ago I would have told you that Carmel may have been the most desirable high school football job in the Midwest, it may not even be the most desirable job in its own county. 

[temptation]

7 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

24-9 the last 3 years doesn't scream an immediate problem, but Carmel has seen each of its last two seasons end in the sectional rounds and they seem to be a shell of its former self. Carmel played for a state championship in 5 of the 7 years from 2013-2019 (won 2) and hasn't sniffed one since. If you subscribe to the idea the mega enrollment schools + low SES numbers=state contenders, then Carmel is failing miserably. Word on the street is that participation numbers are extremely low at 2/3 junior high so this may indicate a more widescale problem. 4-5 years ago I would have told you that Carmel may have been the most desirable high school football job in the Midwest, it may not even be the most desirable job in its own county. 

Concussion moms?

No, seriously I think Carmel may actually have gotten too big for itself.

The fanbase seems disinterested  and the disconnect between the football program and fan attendance shows.

I joked that they may have gotten bored with winning but that was sort of tongue-in-cheek.

As far as SES, is there a point where it is actually too low, which hurts a sport like football that depends on a certain type of player?

Edited October 31, 2022 by temptation

[Footballking16]

2 minutes ago, temptation said:

Concussion moms?

That's a lot of moms.

[Muda69]

Didn't a new Call of Duty: Modern Warfare game just come out? 

There is your answer.

 

[HomeCookin]

28 minutes ago, temptation said:

Concussion moms?

No, seriously I think Carmel may actually have gotten too big for itself.

The fanbase seems disinterested  and the disconnect between the football program and fan attendance shows.

I joked that they may have gotten bored with winning but that was sort of tongue-in-cheek.

As far as SES, is there a point where it is actually too low, which hurts a sport like football that depends on a certain type of player?

You may not be far off with the concussion moms. I hear at the youth level the Carmel dads club has become the moms club… 

[Footballking16]

1 hour ago, temptation said:

As far as SES, is there a point where it is actually too low, which hurts a sport like football that depends on a certain type of player?

You made the parameters not me. Have Carmel demographics shifted that much in the last 5 years?

On a side note, you may be on to something about the size of Carmel. I know there are a fair amount of Carmel kids not playing at Carmel.

[BTF]

2 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

If you subscribe to the idea the mega enrollment schools + low SES numbers=state contenders, then Carmel is failing miserably.  

Correct. No excuses with their resources.

[temptation]

2 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

You made the parameters not me. Have Carmel demographics shifted that much in the last 5 years?

On a side note, you may be on to something about the size of Carmel. I know there are a fair amount of Carmel kids not playing at Carmel.

No, but may fewer “gritty kids” (if Carmel has many) are going out for football?

Carmel is most well known for its success in country club sports…

[Boilernation]

4 hours ago, temptation said:

Concussion moms?

No, seriously I think Carmel may actually have gotten too big for itself.

The fanbase seems disinterested  and the disconnect between the football program and fan attendance shows.

I joked that they may have gotten bored with winning but that was sort of tongue-in-cheek.

As far as SES, is there a point where it is actually too low, which hurts a sport like football that depends on a certain type of player?

Do you think an invite to the HCC would rekindle fan interest? Though it seems like the HCC would be foolish to reconsider. Are home crowds no longer large? That is one place I've been to many of times and the large homeside would always be packed with plenty of people standing around the fences. 

[Grover]

5 hours ago, HomeCookin said:

You may not be far off with the concussion moms. I hear at the youth level the Carmel dads club has become the moms club… 

Come on!  They got Gary Brackett to coach their IEFA team!

[GC42]

6 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

24-9 the last 3 years doesn't scream an immediate problem, but Carmel has seen each of its last two seasons end in the sectional rounds and they seem to be a shell of its former self. Carmel played for a state championship in 5 of the 7 years from 2013-2019 (won 2) and hasn't sniffed one since. If you subscribe to the idea the mega enrollment schools + low SES numbers=state contenders, then Carmel is failing miserably. Word on the street is that participation numbers are extremely low at 2/3 junior high so this may indicate a more widescale problem. 4-5 years ago I would have told you that Carmel may have been the most desirable high school football job in the Midwest, it may not even be the most desirable job in its own county. 

I think you make an interesting case but I believe that all schools, even a mega school like Carmel, experience up and down cycles with talent. It may be a little early to say the program is any type of dire straights. Time will tell.

[JustRules]

1 hour ago, GC42 said:

I think you make an interesting case but I believe that all schools, even a mega school like Carmel, experience up and down cycles with talent. It may be a little early to say the program is any type of dire straights. Time will tell.

I've worked or been to games the past several years at Carmel. The crowd is always big and into the game. The team is full of great athletes. Like many other teams in central Indiana they play very good teams every week and often in early rounds of the tournament. The last3 years their tournament losses are to Ben Davis, Brownsburg, and Westfield, all very good teams! I would hardly call what is happening at Carmel as struggling. 

[Muda69]

11 hours ago, temptation said:

No, but may fewer “gritty kids” (if Carmel has many) are going out for football?

Carmel is most well known for its success in country club sports…

I hear the Carmel Lacrosse team is pretty good.

 

[Footballking16]

10 hours ago, GC42 said:

I think you make an interesting case but I believe that all schools, even a mega school like Carmel, experience up and down cycles with talent. It may be a little early to say the program is any type of dire straights. Time will tell.

Is it cyclical though? Carmel had two B10 commits plus a few MAC/G5 caliber players. Not sure talent was/has been the issue for Carmel.

Attitude, toughness, etc or in this case lack thereof, is generally what I'm hearing has been an issue for Carmel these last few years. Does seem like a culture problem much more than a coaching/talent issue. John Herbert just didn't forget how to coach overnight. 

[Bash Riprock]

4 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Is it cyclical though? Carmel had two B10 commits plus a few MAC/G5 caliber players. Not sure talent was/has been the issue for Carmel.

Attitude, toughness, etc or in this case lack thereof, is generally what I'm hearing has been an issue for Carmel these last few years. Does seem like a culture problem much more than a coaching/talent issue. John Herbert just didn't forget how to coach overnight. 

Carmel is a head scratcher this year.  I agree with your talent comment for their roster.  They beat Detroit Cass, Ben Davis, and held an explosive LC offense to 7 points the last regular season game in that victory.  The game against CG came down to the wire.  Just not sure what happened in the Westfield game.  They were not beaten that soundly all season long.  It seems like they were simply not ready to play against Westfield.

Not related to this season, but I am hearing their youth football numbers are considerably down.....can anyone confirm?  That is not a good sign for the future if true, although I know they get a ton of move-ins. 

[Footballking16]

Just now, Bash Riprock said:

Carmel is a head scratcher this year.  I agree with your talent comment for their roster.  They beat Detroit Cass, Ben Davis, and held an explosive LC offense to 7 points the last regular season game in that victory.  The game against CG came down to the wire.  Just not sure what happened in the Westfield game.  They were not beaten that soundly all season long.  It seems like they were simply not ready to play against Westfield.

Not related to this season, but I am hearing their youth football numbers are considerably down.....can anyone confirm?  That is not a good sign for the future if true, although I know they get a ton of move-ins. 

I heard Carmel Dad's Club is virtually non-existent these days for football and two of the Junior High Schools have numbers that are considerably down. 

While its true they get move ins, they do lose their share of talent to Guerin, Brebeuf, Cathedral in some cases. Temp may have hit the nail on the head yesterday about Carmel's size finally catching up to them. 

[ragdoll]

Heldt did not play against Westfield and he looked severely missed. 

[BTF]

Maybe Carmel just had an off game against Westfield? Overall it was a pretty good year and they sit at #9 in the Sagarin Ratings. That's a pretty good ranking considering the quality of football in Indiana. 

[GC42]

10 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

Is it cyclical though? Carmel had two B10 commits plus a few MAC/G5 caliber players. Not sure talent was/has been the issue for Carmel.

Attitude, toughness, etc or in this case lack thereof, is generally what I'm hearing has been an issue for Carmel these last few years. Does seem like a culture problem much more than a coaching/talent issue. John Herbert just didn't forget how to coach overnight. 

I don't have much confidence in "the word on the street" or "I'm hearing" commentary especially when it calls in to question the toughness, attitude and grit of high school athletes. I watched several of their games this season and I saw nothing that indicated that Carmel lacked toughness or intensity.

Edited November 2, 2022 by GC42

[Footballking16]

1 hour ago, GC42 said:

I don't have much confidence in "the word on the street" or "I'm hearing" commentary especially when it calls in to question the toughness, attitude and grit of high school athletes. I watched several of their games this season and I saw nothing that indicated that Carmel lacked toughness or intensity.

So a talent problem then? Coaching? Not enough D1 kids or what? Carmel for years had phenomenal offensive lines who were nasty and bullied other teams. Haven’t seen that the last few years. They’re on a downward trajectory, I think that’s pretty evident. No longer the top dog in Hamilton County, that torch has been passed.

[PDB26]

1 hour ago, Footballking16 said:

So a talent problem then? Coaching? Not enough D1 kids or what? Carmel for years had phenomenal offensive lines who were nasty and bullied other teams. Haven’t seen that the last few years. They’re on a downward trajectory, I think that’s pretty evident. No longer the top dog in Hamilton County, that torch has been passed.

@temptation and @GC42 propose some interesting and reasonable factors that might explain a program dropping off. I especially like the question of whether a school can get too big and a program too successful.

However, isn't it likely that Carmel's recent performances are a function of the depth of competition in the Indianapolis area?. Doesn't the quality of competition in the Indianapolis area make sustained dominance difficult to the point that any team in 5A or 6A is likely to go through a stretch where they don't get out of their sectional? And isn't it reasonable to think that the 32 team classes exacerbate the difficulty of emerging from a sectional in 5A and 6A – especially in the Indianapolis area? Sure, Carmel is the largest school, but aren't most of their peers able to combine large enough enrollments with similar enough SES profiles to negate whatever speculative advantage Carmel's additional enrollment might give them? 

[Footballking16]

44 minutes ago, PDB26 said:

@temptation and @GC42 propose some interesting and reasonable factors that might explain a program dropping off. I especially like the question of whether a school can get too big and a program too successful.

However, isn't it likely that Carmel's recent performances are a function of the depth of competition in the Indianapolis area?. Doesn't the quality of competition in the Indianapolis area make sustained dominance difficult to the point that any team in 5A or 6A is likely to go through a stretch where they don't get out of their sectional? And isn't it reasonable to think that the 32 team classes exacerbate the difficulty of emerging from a sectional in 5A and 6A – especially in the Indianapolis area? Sure, Carmel is the largest school, but aren't most of their peers able to combine large enough enrollments with similar enough SES profiles to negate whatever speculative advantage Carmel's additional enrollment might give them? 

I’m not anointing the Carmel program dead, just pointing out that there seems to be a clear downward trend. And the dwindling participation numbers within the youth and junior high feeders suggest this may be more than just a cyclical issue.

[temptation]

6 hours ago, PDB26 said:

@temptation and @GC42 propose some interesting and reasonable factors that might explain a program dropping off. I especially like the question of whether a school can get too big and a program too successful.

However, isn't it likely that Carmel's recent performances are a function of the depth of competition in the Indianapolis area?. Doesn't the quality of competition in the Indianapolis area make sustained dominance difficult to the point that any team in 5A or 6A is likely to go through a stretch where they don't get out of their sectional? And isn't it reasonable to think that the 32 team classes exacerbate the difficulty of emerging from a sectional in 5A and 6A – especially in the Indianapolis area? Sure, Carmel is the largest school, but aren't most of their peers able to combine large enough enrollments with similar enough SES profiles to negate whatever speculative advantage Carmel's additional enrollment might give them? 

Honest question…how many high school kids “go out for football” on an annual basis at Carmel?

You’re talking 11 kids on the field at a time…in a school of 5400.

I know that their swimming/track/XC programs have triple digits and the path to swim/run varsity is really steep.

Two per event in swimming/track and 7 run varsity in XC.

Does this lead to apathy?

Once again, no evidence…just spitballing.

[BTF]

5 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

I’m not anointing the Carmel program dead, just pointing out that there seems to be a clear downward trend. And the dwindling participation numbers within the youth and junior high feeders suggest this may be more than just a cyclical issue.

Temp mentioned something that I was thinking myself.............country club sports. But why would those sports hold a higher level of importance at Carmel than other burbs like Fishers and HSE?

[temptation]

1 hour ago, BTF said:

Temp mentioned something that I was thinking myself.............country club sports. But why would those sports hold a higher level of importance at Carmel than other burbs like Fishers and HSE?

I don't think they do, by much.  HSE and Fishers also have huge numbers and success in those sports but Carmel is just on another level.  

In sports like XC, even though 7 kids run varsity ALL 130 get to compete on the same course, on the same day.

In football, 11 kids see the field at a time.  I'd say participation game numbers in a Friday night contest approach 60 (just a complete guess honestly).  Am I way off base here in assuming Carmel has 250 kids that probably go out for football once freshman numbers are considered?  That is a steep damn hill to get your name on the two deep.

The other sports are also "no cut" in most circumstances.