4A Tournament: OFFICIAL Thread

[fenderbender]

25 minutes ago, Lysander said:

Agreed.  Chatard and Roncalli are effectively .500 against each other over the entirety of their history.  Makes it hard to get the needed points to stay up if they are always paired in the same 4A Sectional.

To be clear, I don’t want Chatard to be in 3A and I’ve said as much for years…..nobody does including the IHSAA.  It’s part of the reason we have a success factor at all…..but the IHSAA just can’t resist putting all the Catholics in the same Sectional whenever and wherever possible.  Btw, it’s entirely possible Cathedral, Chatard and Roncalli ALL end up in the same 4A Sectional 3 years from now if Cathedral can’t get past New Pal next year.

 

Used up all my likes today, so had to do it the hard way. Could see that sectional happening. 

[fenderbender]

41 minutes ago, Lysander said:

Agreed.  Chatard and Roncalli are effectively .500 against each other over the entirety of their history.  Makes it hard to get the needed points to stay up if they are always paired in the same 4A Sectional.

To be clear, I don’t want Chatard to be in 3A and I’ve said as much for years…..nobody does including the IHSAA.  It’s part of the reason we have a success factor at all…..but the IHSAA just can’t resist putting all the Catholics in the same Sectional whenever and wherever possible.  Btw, it’s entirely possible Cathedral, Chatard and Roncalli ALL end up in the same 4A Sectional 3 years from now if Cathedral can’t get past New Pal next year.

 

May not happen.  East Central, New Pal and Cathedral up in 5A next season.  Chatard drops down.  Could allow  Roncalli to be in 5A in three seasons.  

[Just a dad]

Well only one team played a clean game. Roncalli was well coached, prepared and up to the challenge of big time playoff football. Chatard was undisciplined (which is atypical). Roncalli will be a handful for whoever plays them. They have power (TB) and speed (QB) so good luck to whomever lines up across from them. 

[fenderbender]

Would the HH vs R game be on the Southside of Indy?

[BLACKGOLD2007]

I will be honest I thought Mishawaka was coming out of that sectional. St. Joe is a dang good football team!

[Lysander]

Unless HH spoils the show for Roncalli, I’m giving odds that the State Championship game will feature the two teams that opened the season against one another:  Dwenger v Roncalli.

[foxbat]

9 hours ago, fenderbender said:

This is where success factor looks foolish.  Chatard moves up, they stuck them in Roncalli sectional, they split the next two years and Chatard moves back down.  
 

Similar thing happened when Roncalli moved up to 5A.  Put them in Cathedral sectional.  R lost close game, then got thumped and back down to 4A.  

This has been part and parcel for the IHSAA and Chatard.  if they aren't in a sectional of death with 2-3 other p/p schools in 3A, they are stuffed in a sectional with Roncalli or Cathedral come SF movements.  

 

Edit: Just read @Lysander's post.  Same wavelength.

 

Edited November 8, 2025 by foxbat

[foxbat]

9 hours ago, fenderbender said:

The QB has turned into a different player vs start of season.  Always had elite speed to run away from people, but now he is hitting the passes when people load up on run.  Jarvis has come out of nowhere.  (Heard he was injured a lot last two seasons.)

 

 

 

[23andCounting]

46 minutes ago, BLACKGOLD2007 said:

I will be honest I thought Mishawaka was coming out of that sectional. St. Joe is a dang good football team!

Mishawaka seemed like a mixed bag this year. Very good, but vulnerable. The Plymouth game was concerning for them in my opinion.

[BLACKGOLD2007]

2 minutes ago, 23andCounting said:

Mishawaka seemed like a mixed bag this year. Very good, but vulnerable. The Plymouth game was concerning for them in my opinion.

Northwood should have had them, the Panthers just kept getting in their own way. 

[fenderbender]

25 minutes ago, foxbat said:

 

 

 

When Jarvis started against Harrison, I asked what is wrong with Dozier and who is this guy?  Might be in trouble. 
 

Boy was I wrong on all accounts…….

[fenderbender]

57 minutes ago, Lysander said:

Unless HH spoils the show for Roncalli, I’m giving odds that the State Championship game will feature the two teams that opened the season against one another:  Dwenger v Roncalli.

Just read the rules.  Roncalli away for sectional final and regional. HH would have to travel.  

[temptation]

Temp goes 5/8 on sectional winners, sorry Dwenger.

[temptation]

Updated title odds, because I like punishment:

1.  Roncalli - 35%

2. Dwenger - 25%

3. Heritage Hills - 20%

4. Yorktown - 10%

5. South Bend St. Joseph - 4%

6. Hobart - 3%

7. Martinsville - 2%

8. Lebanon - 1%

[hhpatriot04]

Per Sagarin ratings:

Tournament Predictions

Quarter-Finals

2025 Hobart is a 5.0-point favorite vs. 2025 SB St. Joseph (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 Hobart 59.48%, 2025 SB St. Joseph 40.52%.

 

2025 FW Dwenger is a 29.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Lebanon (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 FW Dwenger 90.59%, 2025 Lebanon 9.41%.

 

2025 Indy Roncalli is a 9.0-point favorite vs. 2025 Yorktown (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 Indy Roncalli 66.61%, 2025 Yorktown 33.39%.

 

2025 Heritage Hills is a 15.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Martinsville (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 Heritage Hills 76.67%, 2025 Martinsville 23.33%.

Potential Semi-Finals

Top Bracket (Winner 1/2 vs. Winner 3/4)

2025 FW Dwenger is a 8.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Hobart (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 FW Dwenger 65.76%, 2025 Hobart 34.24%.
(Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 54.11%)

2025 Hobart is a 21.0-point favorite vs. 2025 Lebanon (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 Hobart 83.37%, 2025 Lebanon 16.63%.
(Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 5.57%)

2025 FW Dwenger is a 13.5-point favorite vs. 2025 SB St. Joseph (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 FW Dwenger 73.81%, 2025 SB St. Joseph 26.19%.
(Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 36.56%)

2025 SB St. Joseph is a 16.0-point favorite vs. 2025 Lebanon (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 SB St. Joseph 77.35%, 2025 Lebanon 22.65%.
(Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 3.76%)

Bottom Bracket (Winner 5/6 vs. Winner 7/8)

2025 Yorktown is a 20.0-point favorite vs. 2025 Martinsville (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 Yorktown 82.27%, 2025 Martinsville 17.73%.
(Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 7.99%)

2025 Yorktown is a 4.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Heritage Hills (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 Yorktown 58.55%, 2025 Heritage Hills 41.45%.
(Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 25.81%)

2025 Indy Roncalli is a 28.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Martinsville (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 Indy Roncalli 89.91%, 2025 Martinsville 10.09%.
(Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 15.66%)

2025 Indy Roncalli is a 13.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Heritage Hills (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 Indy Roncalli 73.81%, 2025 Heritage Hills 26.19%.
(Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 50.54%)

Overall Tournament Win Probability

• 2025 Hobart: 8.41%
• 2025 SB St. Joseph: 3.51%
• 2025 FW Dwenger: 31.80%
• 2025 Lebanon: 0.19%
• 2025 Yorktown: 11.11%
• 2025 Indy Roncalli: 34.16%
• 2025 Martinsville: 0.59%
• 2025 Heritage Hills: 10.24%

[fenderbender]

1 hour ago, hhpatriot04 said:

Per Sagarin ratings:

Tournament Predictions

Quarter-Finals

2025 Hobart is a 5.0-point favorite vs. 2025 SB St. Joseph (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 Hobart 59.48%, 2025 SB St. Joseph 40.52%.

2025 FW Dwenger is a 29.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Lebanon (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 FW Dwenger 90.59%, 2025 Lebanon 9.41%.

2025 Indy Roncalli is a 9.0-point favorite vs. 2025 Yorktown (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 Indy Roncalli 66.61%, 2025 Yorktown 33.39%.

2025 Heritage Hills is a 15.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Martinsville (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 Heritage Hills 76.67%, 2025 Martinsville 23.33%.

Potential Semi-Finals

Top Bracket (Winner 1/2 vs. Winner 3/4)

2025 FW Dwenger is a 8.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Hobart (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 FW Dwenger 65.76%, 2025 Hobart 34.24%.
(Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 54.11%)

2025 Hobart is a 21.0-point favorite vs. 2025 Lebanon (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 Hobart 83.37%, 2025 Lebanon 16.63%.
(Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 5.57%)

2025 FW Dwenger is a 13.5-point favorite vs. 2025 SB St. Joseph (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 FW Dwenger 73.81%, 2025 SB St. Joseph 26.19%.
(Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 36.56%)

2025 SB St. Joseph is a 16.0-point favorite vs. 2025 Lebanon (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 SB St. Joseph 77.35%, 2025 Lebanon 22.65%.
(Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 3.76%)

Bottom Bracket (Winner 5/6 vs. Winner 7/8)

2025 Yorktown is a 20.0-point favorite vs. 2025 Martinsville (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 Yorktown 82.27%, 2025 Martinsville 17.73%.
(Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 7.99%)

2025 Yorktown is a 4.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Heritage Hills (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 Yorktown 58.55%, 2025 Heritage Hills 41.45%.
(Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 25.81%)

2025 Indy Roncalli is a 28.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Martinsville (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 Indy Roncalli 89.91%, 2025 Martinsville 10.09%.
(Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 15.66%)

2025 Indy Roncalli is a 13.5-point favorite vs. 2025 Heritage Hills (no HFA).
Win probability: 2025 Indy Roncalli 73.81%, 2025 Heritage Hills 26.19%.
(Probability of this specific semi-final matchup occurring: 50.54%)

Overall Tournament Win Probability

• 2025 Hobart: 8.41%
• 2025 SB St. Joseph: 3.51%
• 2025 FW Dwenger: 31.80%
• 2025 Lebanon: 0.19%
• 2025 Yorktown: 11.11%
• 2025 Indy Roncalli: 34.16%
• 2025 Martinsville: 0.59%
• 2025 Heritage Hills: 10.24%

Hard to believe Yorktown favored over HH. 

[hhpatriot04]

32 minutes ago, fenderbender said:

Hard to believe Yorktown favored over HH. 

HH dropped massively following the Jasper win and Gibson Southern slipping past Mater Dei.

I expect the Martinsville game should give them a boost in the computer polls because of SoS. I think they are about a touchdown stronger than their current ranking, but what do I know from Boston?

[TommyTwoTimes]

10 hours ago, hhpatriot04 said:

I think they are about a touchdown stronger than their current ranking, but what do I know from Boston?

I'd say your right on the money there.  

[Komets2727]

Not much standing in the way of Roncalli vs. Dwenger for a state title

[fenderbender]

1 hour ago, Komets2727 said:

Not much standing in the way of Roncalli vs. Dwenger for a state title

HH is very talented.  

Will see if they have the depth to win in 4A    Though the loss to Gibson Southern shows there was no guarantee that they would have won 3A  

 

 

[Komets2727]

12 minutes ago, fenderbender said:

HH is very talented.  

Will see if they have the depth to win in 4A    Though the loss to Gibson Southern shows there was no guarantee that they would have won 3A  

 

 

Roncalli is playing excellent football right and will be tough for anyone to beat

[23andCounting]

9 hours ago, Komets2727 said:

Roncalli is playing excellent football right and will be tough for anyone to beat

In all fairness, Dwenger is also better now than they were in Week 1 when they played Roncalli. I wouldn't count out Heritage Hills. Aren't they suppose to be better this year than last? If that's case, I think it's Roncalli who might have their hands full. 

[TommyTwoTimes]

23 minutes ago, 23andCounting said:

In all fairness, Dwenger is also better now than they were in Week 1 when they played Roncalli. I wouldn't count out Heritage Hills. Aren't they suppose to be better this year than last? If that's case, I think it's Roncalli who might have their hands full. 

9 hours ago, fenderbender said:

  10 hours ago, Komets2727 said:

Not much standing in the way of Roncalli vs. Dwenger for a state title

Though HH lost a couple key players last year, for all intents and purposes you could say they're a year older this year.  Roncalli is and should be looked at as the favorite, but the statement that there's "not much standing in the way of Roncalli vs Dwenger for a state title" is laughable.

Edited November 12, 2025 by TommyTwoTimes

[23andCounting]

23 minutes ago, TommyTwoTimes said:

Though HH lost a couple key players last year, for all intents and purposes you could say they're a year older this year.  Roncalli is and should be looked at as the favorite, but the statement that there's "not much standing in the way of Roncalli vs Dwenger for a state title" is laughable.

Let's just say they are both big favorites. Both teams will have to be at their very best though. Anything less than that, I think Heritage Hills and Hobart are very capable.

[HHPatriots]

10 hours ago, fenderbender said:

HH is very talented.  

Will see if they have the depth to win in 4A    Though the loss to Gibson Southern shows there was no guarantee that they would have won 3A  

 

 

Depth.  We keep hearing that and I would agree that there is a very good chance it will catch up with us at some point.  If we win this Friday and I think we do, we will show up at SS with our 35ish guys against the 100+ of Roncalli.   

As for the Gibson Southern game....we would all like to have that one back.  They were not where they needed to be mentally.  The lead of that game changed 4 times in the last 8 minutes and down by 4 with literally 1.6 on the clock we had a chance and failed.  Again...everyone wants that one back.  With that said, GS will likely win 3A and frankly I hope that they do.