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Contraction Candidates Identified by Sagarin


Guest DT

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All schools hilited in below chart should consider contraction option during this most difficult offseason.

Revenues everywhere will be down and the cost of running a football program will grow to its highest percentage of athletic department funds available ever.

ADs and admins should take into account recent records, competitiveness (point differential),  coaching turnover, roster size, status of feeder programs, levels of community support, and overall financial impact 

Given the current events overtaking everyday life, public opposition to football contraction will be limited and greatly muted.  

Now is the best time to make the move, giving go forward playing schools the opportunity to react and reschedule where possible.

 

 

 

 

 

 

CLASS 4A

CLASS
RANK
STATE
RANK
TEAM OVERALL
RATING
SCHEDULE
STRENGTH RANK
RECENT
RATING   RANK
PREDICTOR
RATING   RANK
                   
55 252 Gary West 19.50 35.21 213 18.87 251 20.22 252
56 264 South Bend Clay 15.44 50.66 115 15.39 262 15.23 262
57 275 Jay County 10.56 40.01 175 10.54 275 10.33 278
58 281 Shelbyville 9.43 62.08 67 9.46 279 9.07 281
59 283 Connersville 8.76 44.17 147 8.01 284 9.39 280
60 285 Madison 8.22 38.48 189 7.68 285 8.04 285
61 288 Frankfort 7.00 48.93 125 4.39 292 9.62 279
CLASS 3A
CLASS
RANK
STATE
RANK
TEAM OVERALL
RATING
SCHEDULE
STRENGTH RANK
RECENT
RATING   RANK
PREDICTOR
RATING   RANK
                   
58 280 Owen Valley 9.61 35.75 206 9.73 277 9.06 282
59 284 Benton Central 8.62 48.87 126 9.66 278 7.16 289
60 290 Indianapolis Manual 6.39 27.18 262 5.48 290 7.25 288
                   
64 311 Pike Central -8.69 31.24 243 -9.14 311 -8.42 310
CLASS 2A
CLASS
RANK
STATE
RANK
TEAM OVERALL
RATING
SCHEDULE
STRENGTH RANK
RECENT
RATING   RANK
PREDICTOR
RATING   RANK
                   
57 270 Prairie Heights 13.08 34.77 218 13.03 270 13.42 271
58 282 Whitko 8.79 34.23 222 6.20 289 11.30 274
59 287 Frankton 7.12 34.80 217 6.62 287 7.35 287
60 302 Union County -1.05 18.87 293 -2.32 302 -0.17 299
61 308 Elwood -6.69 36.13 204 -6.99 309 -6.73 307
62 309 Switzerland County -7.01 4.02 318 -6.17 307 -8.65 311
63 317 Crawford County -21.77 17.07 300 -20.82 317 -23.32 317
CLASS 1A
CLASS
RANK
STATE
RANK
TEAM OVERALL
RATING
SCHEDULE
STRENGTH RANK
RECENT
RATING   RANK
PREDICTOR
RATING   RANK
                   
40 277 Union City 9.99 19.26 289 9.03 282 10.70 276
41 278 Southern Wells 9.97 33.72 226 11.70 273 7.61 286
42 279 North White 9.87 5.56 317 11.81 271 8.55 284
43 286 Riverton Parke 7.26 29.92 251 8.63 283 5.21 294
44 289 Cloverdale 6.56 32.84 233 6.55 288 6.09 292
45 292 Clinton Central 5.81 21.71 282 4.33 294 6.76 290
46 295 Eastern Greene 3.49 30.53 248 4.34 293 2.34 296
47 296 Tecumseh 2.99 22.15 279 2.84 297 2.75 295
48 297 Cambridge City Lincoln 2.52 17.89 299 4.95 291 -1.06 302
49 298 Oldenburg Academy 2.19 8.19 315 3.42 296 0.17 298
50 299 Park Tudor 1.60 22.94 274 2.67 298 0.21 297
51 300 South Decatur 0.88 11.94 307 1.48 300 -0.28 300
                   
56 306 Caston -5.86 33.87 223 -7.34 310 -4.65 303
57 307 Taylor -6.48 21.72 281 -4.79 304 -9.81 312
58 312 Edinburgh -8.73 10.12 312 -10.69 312 -6.66 306
59 313 Tri-County -13.19 12.29 305 -13.54 314 -12.87 314
60 314 Lake Station -13.38 19.23 290 -11.30 313 -16.60 315
61 316 Gary Roosevelt -17.45 18.79 294 -16.90 316 -18.34 316
62 318 South Newton -23.72 11.80 309 -24.20 319 -23.44 318
63 320 Rock Creek Academy -25.54 -7.71 320 -25.29 320 -25.81 320
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In week 9 2019, I had the wonderful opportunity to officiate the South Newton @ Lake Station football game.  It was outstanding.  Both teams had wonderful support from many, many, many fans.  They played very well and so hard.  They represented themselves, their families, schools and community with such amazing spirit.

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1 hour ago, DT said:

All schools hilited in below chart should consider contraction option during this most difficult offseason.

Revenues everywhere will be down and the cost of running a football program will grow to its highest percentage of athletic department funds available ever.

ADs and admins should take into account recent records, competitiveness (point differential),  coaching turnover, roster size, status of feeder programs, levels of community support, and overall financial impact 

Given the current events overtaking everyday life, public opposition to football contraction will be limited and greatly muted.  

Now is the best time to make the move, giving go forward playing schools the opportunity to react and reschedule where possible.

 

 

 

 

 

 

CLASS 4A

CLASS
RANK
STATE
RANK
TEAM OVERALL
RATING
SCHEDULE
STRENGTH RANK
RECENT
RATING   RANK
PREDICTOR
RATING   RANK
                   
55 252 Gary West 19.50 35.21 213 18.87 251 20.22 252
56 264 South Bend Clay 15.44 50.66 115 15.39 262 15.23 262
57 275 Jay County 10.56 40.01 175 10.54 275 10.33 278
58 281 Shelbyville 9.43 62.08 67 9.46 279 9.07 281
59 283 Connersville 8.76 44.17 147 8.01 284 9.39 280
60 285 Madison 8.22 38.48 189 7.68 285 8.04 285
61 288 Frankfort 7.00 48.93 125 4.39 292 9.62 279
CLASS 3A
CLASS
RANK
STATE
RANK
TEAM OVERALL
RATING
SCHEDULE
STRENGTH RANK
RECENT
RATING   RANK
PREDICTOR
RATING   RANK
                   
58 280 Owen Valley 9.61 35.75 206 9.73 277 9.06 282
59 284 Benton Central 8.62 48.87 126 9.66 278 7.16 289
60 290 Indianapolis Manual 6.39 27.18 262 5.48 290 7.25 288
                   
64 311 Pike Central -8.69 31.24 243 -9.14 311 -8.42 310
CLASS 2A
CLASS
RANK
STATE
RANK
TEAM OVERALL
RATING
SCHEDULE
STRENGTH RANK
RECENT
RATING   RANK
PREDICTOR
RATING   RANK
                   
57 270 Prairie Heights 13.08 34.77 218 13.03 270 13.42 271
58 282 Whitko 8.79 34.23 222 6.20 289 11.30 274
59 287 Frankton 7.12 34.80 217 6.62 287 7.35 287
60 302 Union County -1.05 18.87 293 -2.32 302 -0.17 299
61 308 Elwood -6.69 36.13 204 -6.99 309 -6.73 307
62 309 Switzerland County -7.01 4.02 318 -6.17 307 -8.65 311
63 317 Crawford County -21.77 17.07 300 -20.82 317 -23.32 317
CLASS 1A
CLASS
RANK
STATE
RANK
TEAM OVERALL
RATING
SCHEDULE
STRENGTH RANK
RECENT
RATING   RANK
PREDICTOR
RATING   RANK
                   
40 277 Union City 9.99 19.26 289 9.03 282 10.70 276
41 278 Southern Wells 9.97 33.72 226 11.70 273 7.61 286
42 279 North White 9.87 5.56 317 11.81 271 8.55 284
43 286 Riverton Parke 7.26 29.92 251 8.63 283 5.21 294
44 289 Cloverdale 6.56 32.84 233 6.55 288 6.09 292
45 292 Clinton Central 5.81 21.71 282 4.33 294 6.76 290
46 295 Eastern Greene 3.49 30.53 248 4.34 293 2.34 296
47 296 Tecumseh 2.99 22.15 279 2.84 297 2.75 295
48 297 Cambridge City Lincoln 2.52 17.89 299 4.95 291 -1.06 302
49 298 Oldenburg Academy 2.19 8.19 315 3.42 296 0.17 298
50 299 Park Tudor 1.60 22.94 274 2.67 298 0.21 297
51 300 South Decatur 0.88 11.94 307 1.48 300 -0.28 300
                   
56 306 Caston -5.86 33.87 223 -7.34 310 -4.65 303
57 307 Taylor -6.48 21.72 281 -4.79 304 -9.81 312
58 312 Edinburgh -8.73 10.12 312 -10.69 312 -6.66 306
59 313 Tri-County -13.19 12.29 305 -13.54 314 -12.87 314
60 314 Lake Station -13.38 19.23 290 -11.30 313 -16.60 315
61 316 Gary Roosevelt -17.45 18.79 294 -16.90 316 -18.34 316
62 318 South Newton -23.72 11.80 309 -24.20 319 -23.44 318
63 320 Rock Creek Academy -25.54 -7.71 320 -25.29 320 -25.81 320

So 20 1A teams should contract? Sounds like a bit much.

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14 minutes ago, AG said:

So 20 1A teams should contract? Sounds like a bit much.

Agree, a bit too aggressive at the 1A level.

When we get to 280 schools go forward, we will reclass as follows :

6A - 32 schools

5A - 54

4A - 54

3A - 54

2A - 54

1A - 32

6A (Mega) and 1A (Tiny) are specialty classes and will be classified as such

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19 minutes ago, foxbat said:

I'm thinking there might be a flaw in the algorithm ...

image.png.9105680f2cb7d8ddab51ababf659d98a.png

As you look at the 1A contraction list, ask yourself this question.

Which of these are "football schools?"

Then simply remove them from the list.

"The list" gets us to the desired 280 number well ahead of the original 5 year plan.  Blame CV for this 

 

Edited by DT
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2 hours ago, WCGrad92 said:

While I dont agree with the contraction idea, the idea he has that I do agree with is the smaller size in 1A,  should be 32 in 6A, 64 in 5,4,3,2  and rest in 1A up to 64

 

I know this will come totally out of left field, but I don’t agree with this crazy notion either.  Why?  Because I am alum of a 1A school (guess which one😉) and I can tell you a few things:

Football brings people together.  Beyond the players who are learning strategy, and team building skills, it allows fans to get together and mingle.  It’s also allows small businesses to get their name out.

Ancillary services.  Band, cheer squads, and athletic trainers all have the opportunity to hone their craft before taking it to the next level.

Supporter of other sports.  Football as well as basketball are the primary breadwinners in the IHS double A.  Therefore the money they take in through gate receipts, etc. will help fund the smaller sports such as wresting which ultimately FB players do participate in.

 

Edited by Gipper
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6 hours ago, DT said:

All schools hilited in below chart should consider contraction option during this most difficult offseason.

Revenues everywhere will be down and the cost of running a football program will grow to its highest percentage of athletic department funds available ever.

ADs and admins should take into account recent records, competitiveness (point differential),  coaching turnover, roster size, status of feeder programs, levels of community support, and overall financial impact 

Given the current events overtaking everyday life, public opposition to football contraction will be limited and greatly muted.  

Now is the best time to make the move, giving go forward playing schools the opportunity to react and reschedule where possible.

 

 

 

 

 

 

CLASS 4A

CLASS
RANK
STATE
RANK
TEAM OVERALL
RATING
SCHEDULE
STRENGTH RANK
RECENT
RATING   RANK
PREDICTOR
RATING   RANK
                   
55 252 Gary West 19.50 35.21 213 18.87 251 20.22 252
56 264 South Bend Clay 15.44 50.66 115 15.39 262 15.23 262
57 275 Jay County 10.56 40.01 175 10.54 275 10.33 278
58 281 Shelbyville 9.43 62.08 67 9.46 279 9.07 281
59 283 Connersville 8.76 44.17 147 8.01 284 9.39 280
60 285 Madison 8.22 38.48 189 7.68 285 8.04 285
61 288 Frankfort 7.00 48.93 125 4.39 292 9.62 279
 

 

The 4A list looks legitimate.  All programs that have continually struggled for years, if not decades.  Sure they may have their "once in a decade (or two)"  kind of team but it is pretty clear community support is waning in many of these programs.

 

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1 hour ago, Gipper said:

I know this will come totally out of left field, but I don’t agree with this crazy notion either.  Why?  Because I am alum of a 1A school (guess which one😉) and I can tell you a few things:

Football brings people together.  Beyond the players who are learning strategy, and team building skills, it allows fans to get together and mingle.  It’s also allows small businesses to get their name out.

Ancillary services.  Band, cheer squads, and athletic trainers all have the opportunity to hone their craft before taking it to the next level.

Supporter of other sports.  Football as well as basketball are the primary breadwinners in the IHS double A.  Therefore the money they take in through gate receipts, etc. will help fund the smaller sports such as wresting which ultimately FB players do participate in.

 

I didn't mean that from a numbers on the team standpoint,  I meant that the classification should be 32 in 6A, 62 in 5A and 4A and 3A and 2A, with the remaining lowest enrollment teams be in 1A.  Not leaving anyone out.  

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33 minutes ago, WCGrad92 said:

I didn't mean that from a numbers on the team standpoint,  I meant that the classification should be 32 in 6A, 62 in 5A and 4A and 3A and 2A, with the remaining lowest enrollment teams be in 1A.  Not leaving anyone out.  

I agree.  The modified form of socialism being offered is crazy.  My thoughts remain the same about how football can also be a cultural thing.

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I think we are considering the wrong approach.

In 2007 the Kernan-Shepherd report offered a suggestion that all school districts should have at least 2000 students.  I know one of you computer geniuses would be able to fine that part of the report for all to see.

I think it is a great idea and a better use of resouces.

For football...there would be the consolidation without regard to athletics

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4 minutes ago, LaSalle Lions 1976 said:

I think we are considering the wrong approach.

In 2007 the Kernan-Shepherd report offered a suggestion that all school districts should have at least 2000 students.  I know one of you computer geniuses would be able to fine that part of the report for all to see.

I think it is a great idea and a better use of resouces.

For football...there would be the consolidation without regard to athletics

The Kernan-Shepherd report also advocated for the dissolution of county townships, all 1000+ of them.  Government is better the more local it is, although I often wonder exactly what most county townships actually do these days.  The township I currently reside in mostly just throws taxpayer money away.

And here is a PDF to said report:  http://indianalocalgovreform.iu.edu/assets/docs/Report_12-10-07.pdf

 

 

 

 

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20 hours ago, DT said:

As you look at the 1A contraction list, ask yourself this question.

Which of these are "football schools?"

Then simply remove them from the list.

"The list" gets us to the desired 280 number well ahead of the original 5 year plan.  Blame CV for this 

 

The biggest flaw in your logic is we get down to 280 schools there will still be a similar number of 0-10/1-9 teams and teams with low Sagarin ratings. Then we contract them. We'll eventually have 2 teams left.

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4 minutes ago, JustRules said:

The biggest flaw in your logic is we get down to 280 schools there will still be a similar number of 0-10/1-9 teams and teams with low Sagarin ratings. Then we contract them. We'll eventually have 2 teams left.

Not necessarily.  I see this initiative as a "one time cleansing."

There are some very, very bad football programs on the list.

Many would likely welcome the opportunity to contract and reorient funds where kids actually have  positive high school experience.

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, DT said:

Not necessarily.  I see this initiative as a "one time cleansing."

There are some very, very bad football programs on the list.

Many would likely welcome the opportunity to contract and reorient funds where kids actually have  positive high school experience.

And if we only have 280 teams the bottom 20-30 would appear to be very bad football programs. It's all relative. No matter how many teams you have there will always be a percentage at the bottom with 0 or 1 wins. I've worked games with many of these teams and for the most part they still have players that play hard and have some talent. Many of them are on your list.

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34 minutes ago, JustRules said:

And if we only have 280 teams the bottom 20-30 would appear to be very bad football programs. It's all relative. No matter how many teams you have there will always be a percentage at the bottom with 0 or 1 wins. I've worked games with many of these teams and for the most part they still have players that play hard and have some talent. Many of them are on your list.

Yes.  There will be a new bottom.  

And the quality and level of play will be improved.  This is the ultimate objective of contraction.

The improvement of overall competitive balance through the elimination of bottom dwelling - chronically uncompetitive programs.

That doesn't sound like such a negative undertaking, does it?  Sounds logical to me.

 

 

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48 minutes ago, TrojanDad said:

Sounds like Jack's Welch's style of performance management during his GE years.  Eliminate the ones on the bottom....each year there is a new bottom.   "Rank and Yank"

That doesn't exist anymore in GE.....

 

 

Jack kicked the bucket a few weeks ago...

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1 hour ago, TrojanDad said:

Sounds like Jack's Welch's style of performance management during his GE years.  Eliminate the ones on the bottom....each year there is a new bottom.   "Rank and Yank"

That doesn't exist anymore in GE.....

 

 

Expensive!

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10 minutes ago, AG said:

I imagine that this is DT and Muda when a rural 1A school closes their football program. 

giphy.gif

And you would be wrong.  But go ahead, keep believing that if it makes you feel better about yourself.

However I will celebrate when government gets out of the education business entirely.

 

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