Temp's 5A Bracket Analysis

[temptation]

Not as intriguing as 6A (never thought I would say that after Cathedral got bumped up) but here we are.

The Favorites:  (Sorted alphabetically.)

Fort Wayne Snider - Like I stated in the 6A thread, Indiana high school football is simply better when a program like Snider is good.  Due to the closed SAC schedule, we honestly don't know "how good" because we don't have a measuring stick of many common opponents.  Sagarin loves the Pantthers who held off a good North Side team in week 1 before suffering their only loss a week later to 6A contender Carroll.  

Whiteland - Other than one hiccup, Whiteland has emerged as the best 5A program in central Indiana.  They won a very competitive and improving Mid-State Conference and can breathe a sigh of relief not having to see Cathedral anywhere in the 5A bracket.  They did have one, head scratching hiccup, a 14 point loss to a decent Martinsville unit but the Warriors won every other contest by double figures against a top 25 schedule.

The Contenders:  (Sorted alphabetically.)

Bloomington South - The Panthers suffered an early season loss to that same Martinsville team mentioned above but was perfect the rest of the way.  They get a bit of a breather in the sectional rounds and should also be heavily favored in the regional.

Merrillville -  The Warren Central of class 5A.  You never know what you are getting with the Pirates as they have looked as good as anyone in the class and then pedestrian at other times.  Talent is definitely not an issue but Merrillville needs to flip the switch after a late season thud at Chesterton.  The Pirates have been to the doorstep at the 6A level before so they should not be intimidated by anyone they see in the bracket.

The Sleepers:  (Sorted alphabetically.)

Chesterton - Mentioned above that their 25 point drubbing of Merrillville last week turned some heads.  They will likely have a coin flip game with conference rival Valpo and then Merrillville should be waiting in the regional should they survive that.

Fort Wayne North - Only losses are to Snider and Carroll and both by one possession.  Uber talented skill position players and I feel like they may be the best team in 5A that no one talks about.

Franklin - Mentioned the competitive Mid-State Conference as possibly the state's most improved and the Grizzly Cubs were right in the thick of it.  They likely get Whiteland at home in a contest they were blanked in during the regular season.  Could be the biggest game in program history if the bracket falls how I expect it to.

Harrison (West Lafayette) - Another program on the rise whose only loss was in week 1 against a great 3A squad in West Lafayette.  Defeated rival Jeff who is a solid 6A unit before coasting home.

Mishawaka - The Cavemen also have one blemish on their resume, to most folks' 4A north favorite NorthWood.  Mishawaka should sneak by Concord before the best 5A team from Fort Wayne awaits in the regional.

Valparaiso - A young team written off by some early hung around and was competitive in the DAC.  They'll need to defeat two DAC rivals to stay alive midway through the month.

 

Temp's Picks:

Sectional Champs:

Merrillville

Chesterton

Mishawaka

Fort Wayne North

Harrison (West Lafayette)

Whiteland

Bloomington South

Castle

 

Regional Champs:

Merrillville

Fort Wayne North

Whiteland

Bloomington South

 

Semi-State Champs:

Fort Wayne North

Whiteland

 

State Champion:  Whiteland

[DumfriesYMCA]

Don’t really have too many thoughts on 5A….but my gut feeling is that Bloomington South is the team to beat out of the South. 

[Boilernation]

Great write up. I have more to comment on later, but my intial reaction was to look at Martinsville's resume. Jeckyl & Hyde to say the least. They've beaten your favorites to make the 5A South Semi-State as well as a solid Franklin team. Nothing wrong with losing to Mooresville. The losses to Plainfield and Decatur Central are headscratchers. Speaking of the Hawks, talk about a complete letdown vs. expectations from this forum.

Edited October 19, 2022 by Boilernation

[BTF]

Yes, great write up Temp. You provide good content to this forum. 

[psaboy]

I can't argue the sectional 12 pick. Though I hope Snider wins that Sectional, It is a toss up IMO between Snider and North Side. Not downplaying Dwenger, just don't think they can win back to back games against Snider and North Side.

[IPFWFootball]

Would love to see North Side make a run, but I'm worried that even if they get past Snider in sectional, they don't have the discipline and structure to make a deep run. Where as Snider may not have as much flashy talent as North, I think they have the pieces to go all the way.

[temptation]

6 hours ago, psaboy said:

I can't argue the sectional 12 pick. Though I hope Snider wins that Sectional, It is a toss up IMO between Snider and North Side. Not downplaying Dwenger, just don't think they can win back to back games against Snider and North Side.

Maybe I’m over analyzing it as I have not seen either team in person but it was a 2 point game AT Snider in week 1…both lost close ones to Carroll but Sagarin has them 17 points apart despite playing the same schedule?

Gotta pick some upsets somewhere.

Edited October 20, 2022 by temptation

[NEinFAN]

FW North is not winning the sectional, let alone semi state. I agree with a TON of talent in the skill positions, but up front they are susceptible. 

I'll take Snider by 10 IF they can get past Dwenger again. Always a tough game. 

[BTF]

4 hours ago, temptation said:

Maybe I’m over analyzing it as I have not seen either team in person but it was a 2 point game AT Snider in week 1…both lost close ones to Carroll but Sagarin has them 17 points apart despite playing the same schedule?

Gotta pick some upsets somewhere.

Snider waxed Homestead and Dwenger whereas North Side did not. That's probably the reason for Snider's higher Sagarin rating. The Legends take their game to a whole new level when playing Snider. I would argue that Snider is North Side's number one rival being bordering neighborhoods. No matter the records, when these two play, either Snider puts their best foot forward or they lose.............that simple. 

[psaboy]

8 hours ago, BTF said:

Snider waxed Homestead and Dwenger whereas North Side did not. That's probably the reason for Snider's higher Sagarin rating. The Legends take their game to a whole new level when playing Snider. I would argue that Snider is North Side's number one rival being bordering neighborhoods. No matter the records, when these two play, either Snider puts their best foot forward or they lose.............that simple. 

Yep. plus I'll add one thing that separates teams this time of year is ability to kick XPG's and FG's.  North is on the wrong side of that equation. 

[psaboy]

12 hours ago, temptation said:

Maybe I’m over analyzing it as I have not seen either team in person but it was a 2 point game AT Snider in week 1…both lost close ones to Carroll but Sagarin has them 17 points apart despite playing the same schedule?

Gotta pick some upsets somewhere.

I think it comes down to how Snider plays. If Snider plays top/best of their game and Dwenger or North does too, Snider still wins. If Dwenger/North is on their game and Snider is a bit off, North wins. Need to keep the bad (few turnovers/dumb flags) team from showing up at any point of the post season for Snider. 

[Justasportsfan]

North 

13 hours ago, temptation said:

Maybe I’m over analyzing it as I have not seen either team in person but it was a 2 point game AT Snider in week 1…both lost close ones to Carroll but Sagarin has them 17 points apart despite playing the same schedule?

Gotta pick some upsets somewhere.

I wouldn't even call it an upset... If rb1 played in that game it may have been different yet they had some luck on their side..the way north played sparty is perplexing..even if Snider is able to take out dwenger if they sleepwalk into the north game it will night night pretty early..

[LC_Bears_04]

I think whoever wins the Fort Wayne North at Fort Wayne Snider game in the sectional finals wins the state championship.  I tend to think that Snider wins that game based off of previous tournament history.  Whiteland should make it to Lucas Oil Stadium from the south side of the bracket, but Franklin and Bloomington South will give them tough challenges.

[temptation]

8 minutes ago, MW1971 said:

Its really shocking to see the total collapse of Class 5A South.

I realized this when I saw that Franklin was ranked 3rd in the final state polls after week 9.

Franklin?  Really?  There clearly is no depth in 5A South.

Decatur Central had a huge falloff this year, and Plainfield had a very poor season in Brian Woodard's last year.

I cant remember when Whiteland has ever won a "Huge" game.  The Deep South 5A schools are within striking distance of catching their Indy counterparts.

5A North, on the other hand, is on fire.

The Duneland has become the states premiere 5A conference.

Hammond Central is coming on fast, finishing its second year post consolidation at 7-2.

Mishawaka, Snider, Northside, all solid.

The rise of Crown Point and Carroll in 6A, a resurgent Penn, and a geographically correct bracket that puts northern Indianapolis metro schools in the North has suddenly started to balance the big school (5A-6A)  playing field. 

 

 

 

 

 

So your pick is…

[temptation]

2 minutes ago, MW1971 said:

I dont make picks.  Thats for the experts to do. 

No one on here is an expert but you sure had a lot to say earlier…

[temptation]

4 minutes ago, MW1971 said:

You seem to be an expert.  I'll evaluate and analyze and comment.  Ill leave the picking to you

So you are taking Crown Point to win it all?

Got it.

[RetiredSouthernCoach]

1 hour ago, MW1971 said:

Its really shocking to see the total collapse of Class 5A South.

I realized this when I saw that Franklin was ranked 3rd in the final state polls after week 9.

Franklin?  Really?  There clearly is no depth in 5A South.

Decatur Central had a huge falloff this year, and Plainfield had a very poor season in Brian Woodard's last year.

I cant remember when Whiteland has ever won a "Huge" game.  The Deep South 5A schools are within striking distance of catching their Indy counterparts.

5A North, on the other hand, is on fire.

The Duneland has become the states premiere 5A conference.

Hammond Central is coming on fast, finishing its second year post consolidation at 7-2.

Mishawaka, Snider, Northside, all solid.

The rise of Crown Point and Carroll in 6A, a resurgent Penn, and a geographically correct bracket that puts northern Indianapolis metro schools in the North has suddenly started to balance the big school (5A-6A)  playing field. 

 

 

 

 

 

I've watched pretty much all of these 5A south teams play this year that you dont speak very highly of. While I get your doubt based on history, and the fact that there are no New Pal like teams catching headlines in the Southern Bracket, there are some really good football teams in 5A south that could have success any year, not just in a year like this when the South is considered open. Having seen a few mid-state games this year, I can assure you that Plainfield is better than their record indicates. A combination of late transfers and injuries have their record blemished, but I would not be surprised to see them have some success in the tournament. The same can be said for Decatur Central. INjuries and youth make their record look unlike years past, but no one wants to see them in the tournament. Your remarks about Franklin Community seem odd, when just a few years ago they were in a top 5 discussion in a loaded 5A. Their coach seems to have figured out what works there and they have some solid players. Whiteland should be the favorite in the 5A south based on their regular season performances. THe remark about never winning a big game..... well how many other programs can say they win the "big game" against Cathedral, that seemed to be their hurdle most years in 5A tournament. For the 5A north, does anyone really have a chance at beating Snider, Merriville or Mishawaka? From an outside eye it doesnt appear so. Basically to sum all of this up, I wouldnt say there is this big collapse in 5A. I would just say the impact of Cathedral and New Pal being out of 5A (where they typically dominate the field) and the fact that Columbus East is down, allows for a lot of good football teams to have a really competitive tournament. From a fans perspective, id say its nice to see the 5A class truly open to a group of teams rather than hanging their hat on the 1 team that no one can touch. Just my thoughts and perspective since you appeared to not have seen many of the South teams play this year. 

[temptation]

1 minute ago, MW1971 said:

Appreciate your comments and a few observations :

Chris Coll was 17-33 at Franklin coming in to this season and had one good year, 2019 when they went 8-3.  I believe this year is a reflection of his good fortune of having some experienced upperclassmen in a down year for the MSC.  Its stil hard for me to believe that a 17-33 program over 5 years can suddenly jump as high as #3 statewide.  It smacks of general overall weakness in my view.

Brian Woodard is a great guy but he and his staff rank towards the bottom of the Mid State.  The Quakers were coming off a state title in track in 2022 and failed to leverage all that speed.  I dont buy the injury argument.  PF is a big 5A school and should have plenty of depth to compete.  They just never have been able to perform when the stakes are high.  Perhaps the new staff will raise performance and expectations.

Ive always considered Kyle Enright to be a "Bro Coach" and I think that overall lack of program discipline caught up with the Hawks this year, which happens when your talent level drops.  I dont expect much fight out of DC in the post season. 

So yes, the loss of NP and Cathedral, the disappearance of CE, and a mediocre year out of the Mid State opens the door for a power shift to the North. 

 

Wow, bold.

Can’t wait to see this play out.

[roaringthunderdlr]

28 minutes ago, RetiredSouthernCoach said:

I've watched pretty much all of these 5A south teams play this year that you dont speak very highly of. While I get your doubt based on history, and the fact that there are no New Pal like teams catching headlines in the Southern Bracket, there are some really good football teams in 5A south that could have success any year, not just in a year like this when the South is considered open. Having seen a few mid-state games this year, I can assure you that Plainfield is better than their record indicates. A combination of late transfers and injuries have their record blemished, but I would not be surprised to see them have some success in the tournament. The same can be said for Decatur Central. INjuries and youth make their record look unlike years past, but no one wants to see them in the tournament. Your remarks about Franklin Community seem odd, when just a few years ago they were in a top 5 discussion in a loaded 5A. Their coach seems to have figured out what works there and they have some solid players. Whiteland should be the favorite in the 5A south based on their regular season performances. THe remark about never winning a big game..... well how many other programs can say they win the "big game" against Cathedral, that seemed to be their hurdle most years in 5A tournament. For the 5A north, does anyone really have a chance at beating Snider, Merriville or Mishawaka? From an outside eye it doesnt appear so. Basically to sum all of this up, I wouldnt say there is this big collapse in 5A. I would just say the impact of Cathedral and New Pal being out of 5A (where they typically dominate the field) and the fact that Columbus East is down, allows for a lot of good football teams to have a really competitive tournament. From a fans perspective, id say its nice to see the 5A class truly open to a group of teams rather than hanging their hat on the 1 team that no one can touch. Just my thoughts and perspective since you appeared to not have seen many of the South teams play this year. 

I agree with Plainfield being better than their record indicates and I have faith in the new staff to get the ship rolling. The town of Plainfield has the athletes. For example, the middle school/freshman football teams usually perform well, boys track just won state, and boys basketball went to the regional in 2021. However, Plainfield varsity football has been mediocre for the most part. We needed some fresh blood in there in order to get the ship rolling, and I'm glad we have it. Plainfield is a program with high upside, and can be scary in a few years if all goes well.

Franklin Community has the #1 baseball player in the NATION on their football team. Max Clark is a supremely talented athlete and has elevated that program. I went to the Franklin at Plainfield game last year and the Vandy baseball commit made the secondary look like burnt toast. I don't know if Franklin, who has had 2 winning seasons (2019, 2022) since 1995, can consistently perform at a high level.

[Komets2727]

Snider will beat Dwenger and setup a showdown with North Side. All things being equal, Snider is better than North Side overall, but North Side is very good. 

[psaboy]

9 hours ago, Komets2727 said:

Snider will beat Dwenger and setup a showdown with North Side. All things being equal, Snider is better than North Side overall, but North Side is very good. 

I'm thinking Snider will beat Dwenger Friday, but thought that last year as well, but feel they should win by 10-14. North side has the talent to play with Snider, two things may hurt them as the game gets into the final quarter, depth and poor kicking game. I'm thinking game is a toss up at this point. 

[Komets2727]

4 hours ago, psaboy said:

I'm thinking Snider will beat Dwenger Friday, but thought that last year as well, but feel they should win by 10-14. North side has the talent to play with Snider, two things may hurt them as the game gets into the final quarter, depth and poor kicking game. I'm thinking game is a toss up at this point. 

Last year with Dwenger the talent was pretty close, not this year. The game is won in the trenches and Snider absolutely dominated the Saints in the first meeting. Throw in the fact that Snider has more speed and the passing game is far superior to Dwenger and I see the same result as the first game. As far as North Side goes, Snider has superior depth compared to North Side and I think that will wear down  North Side in the 4th quarter, but we shall see.

[Justasportsfan]

17 hours ago, Komets2727 said:

Last year with Dwenger the talent was pretty close, not this year. The game is won in the trenches and Snider absolutely dominated the Saints in the first meeting. Throw in the fact that Snider has more speed and the passing game is far superior to Dwenger and I see the same result as the first game. As far as North Side goes, Snider has superior depth compared to North Side and I think that will wear down  North Side in the 4th quarter, but we shall see.

Legends won't need depth..they have their single season rushing record holder at rb..one of the most sought after recruits in the country at wr..a massive line n a qb that can sling it..heck they even have a film crew following them (gr8 recruiting tool btw)..how the first game didn't end up in the 30's perplexes me..North side may blow it open in the 1st qtr..thats if the panthers can get past dwenger..we all know those cyo teams are built for october/November games..

[Komets2727]

1 hour ago, Justasportsfan said:

Legends won't need depth..they have their single season rushing record holder at rb..one of the most sought after recruits in the country at wr..a massive line n a qb that can sling it..heck they even have a film crew following them (gr8 recruiting tool btw)..how the first game didn't end up in the 30's perplexes me..North side may blow it open in the 1st qtr..thats if the panthers can get past dwenger..we all know those cyo teams are built for october/November games..

Ok, again Snider beat North Side the first time, North Side struggled with Homestead and Luers, both team Snider hammered, and got drilled by Carroll who Snider played close without their RB1. Dwenger is not even close to the team they had last year when they split with Snider

Edited October 25, 2022 by Komets2727

[Justasportsfan]

6 minutes ago, Komets2727 said:

Ok, again Snider beat North Side the first time, North Side struggled with Homestead and Luers, both team Snider hammered, and got drilled by Carroll who Snider played close without their RB1. Dwenger is not even close to the team they had last year when they split with Snider

Can we agree that the legends amp up their game when it comes to snider..?I think 3 points separated them the last two games..what did luers and sparty do that they couldn't do against snider? First game jitters? Vanilla play calling?