Who is on the Tournament Success Factor bubble?

[rob]

IHSAA now redoes the sectional alignments every year instead of every two years.

The success factor points are from the last two years

If a team moves up one year, like Adams Central from 1A to 2A, they can't move up to 3A until they've been in 2A for 2 years.

Who is on the bubble of moving up for Fall 2025?  Predictions?

5A -> 6A:

Bloomington South - if they win state

Decatur Central - if they win semistate

Merrillville - if they win state

4A -> 5A:

New Palestine - if they win state

3A -> 4A

Heritage Hills - if they win semistate

Knox - if they win state

2A - 3A

Lafayette CC - if they win state.  They already have enough to remain in 2A (they are 1A sized).

1A -> 2A

North Judson - if they win state

Sheridan - if they win state

 

Who is moving down since they'll have less than 3 points?

Indianapolis Cathedral will move down from 6A to 5A.

 

Sources:  Tournament success factor Rule 2.5--> https://www.ihsaa.org/sites/default/files/documents/Tournament Success Factor.pdf

23-24 success factor points--> https://www.ihsaa.org/sites/default/files/documents/Football TSF 2022-23 2023-24.pdf

 

[adambetz]

Put me down for Decatur Central, Heritage Hills and North Judson all going up.

[PLACfan]

10 minutes ago, adambetz said:

Put me down for Decatur Central, Heritage Hills and North Judson all going up.

I'm sure I missed this somewhere but when teams move up due to SF are the sectionals they left realigned at all? Or their spot just left open?

[US31]

I still hate the idea of bumping a team that hasn't won a title

[adambetz]

2 minutes ago, PLACfan said:

I'm sure I missed this somewhere but when teams move up due to SF are the sectionals they left realigned at all? Or their spot just left open?

According to @rob it has been changed so that the sectionals will realign on a yearly basis, so I'd assume their spot will be filled if possible. Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to what the IHSAA will actually do.

[Lucy Draper]

SCHOOLS SHOULD NOT BE PENALIZED FOR RUNNING SUCCESSFUL ATHLETIC PROGRAMS! THE SUCCESS FACTOR SUCKS! TYPICAL BUREAUCRATIC POLICY! 

FLATUS HOAGIES FOR THE IHSAA WHEN IT COMES TO SUCCESS FACTOR!!

Edited November 15, 2024 by Lucy Draper

[FastpacedO]

18 minutes ago, Lucy Draper said:

SCHOOLS SHOULD NOT BE PENALIZED FOR RUNNING SUCCESSFUL ATHLETIC PROGRAMS! THE SUCCESS FACTOR SUCKS! TYPICAL BUREAUCRATIC POLICY! 

FLATUS HOAGIES FOR THE IHSAA WHEN IT COMES TO SUCCESS FACTOR!!

Penalized/Rewarded depends on how you look at it, beauty is in the eye of the beholder

[adambetz]

Nothing is ever fair. Single class isn't fair. Success factor isn't fair. Privates aren't fair. Life isn't fair.

[BTF]

25 minutes ago, Lucy Draper said:

SCHOOLS SHOULD NOT BE PENALIZED FOR RUNNING SUCCESSFUL ATHLETIC PROGRAMS! THE SUCCESS FACTOR SUCKS! TYPICAL BUREAUCRATIC POLICY! 

FLATUS HOAGIES FOR THE IHSAA WHEN IT COMES TO SUCCESS FACTOR!!

I think it was intended as a result of private school dominance. It's been concluded that through socioeconomic factors and open enrollment, that private schools have a major advantage. That being said, there are even some public schools that have been bumped up due to success. And quite frankly, I don't know why any program would want to remain in their enrollment class if they win every year. Sports is about challenging yourselves. Go up and compete with the bigger boys. If you don't win, then go back down. 

[rob]

51 minutes ago, adambetz said:

According to @rob it has been changed so that the sectionals will realign on a yearly basis, so I'd assume their spot will be filled if possible. Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to what the IHSAA will actually do.

I'm pretty sure they totally realign them.  Let's face it, if a team in Evansville needs to go into 4A and a 4A team in the Chicago region moves out you sure aren't going to have that team in Evansville play in a NW sectional.

Besides, realignment adds to the guessing fun.

[rob]

I agree that some of the really small schools sometimes are occasionally gifted with 1 or 2 "once in every 50 years" players.  And two years of that kind of success bumps them up and they get stomped for 2 years after they graduate before they move back down.  Central Noble girls basketball from a few years back comes to mind.

But I really like BTF's comments.

[PHJIrish]

8 minutes ago, BTF said:

I think it was intended as a result of private school dominance. It's been concluded that through socioeconomic factors and open enrollment, that private schools have a major advantage. That being said, there are even some public schools that have been bumped up due to success. And quite frankly, I don't know why any program would want to remain in their enrollment class if they win every year. Sports is about challenging yourselves. Go up and compete with the bigger boys. If you don't win, then go back down. 

Maybe SF should just be renamed the Cathedral/Chatard factor.😉

[Lucy Draper]

5 minutes ago, BTF said:

I think it was intended as a result of private school dominance. It's been concluded that through socioeconomic factors and open enrollment, that private schools have a major advantage. That being said, there are even some public schools that have been bumped up due to success. And quite frankly, I don't know why any program would want to remain in their enrollment class if they win every year. Sports is about challenging yourselves. Go up and compete with the bigger boys. If you don't win, then go back down. 

I'm not a very smart person, so take my opinions accordingly. That said, I think the vast majority of medium/small public schools don't work hard enough to overcome the advantages that belong to private schools. They believe they are working hard enough, but they don't know what they don't know. That's just my dumbass opinion though.

[Tippy]

4 minutes ago, PHJIrish said:

Maybe SF should just be renamed the Cathedral/Chatard factor.😉

I thought it was called the LCC factor.  

[PHJIrish]

Just now, Tippy said:

I thought it was called the LCC factor.  

Them 2!

[cpg1970]

52 minutes ago, Lucy Draper said:

SCHOOLS SHOULD NOT BE PENALIZED FOR RUNNING SUCCESSFUL ATHLETIC PROGRAMS! THE SUCCESS FACTOR SUCKS! TYPICAL BUREAUCRATIC POLICY! 

FLATUS HOAGIES FOR THE IHSAA WHEN IT COMES TO SUCCESS FACTOR!!

Unless you are a private school that can recruit.  I agree with you regarding public schools, who are forced to play the hand they are dealt.

[tango]

2 minutes ago, cpg1970 said:

Unless you are a private school that can recruit.  I agree with you regarding public schools, who are forced to play the hand they are dealt.

All schools can recruit.

[Donnie Baker]

19 minutes ago, PHJIrish said:

Maybe SF should just be renamed the Cathedral/Chatard factor.😉

Don’t forget LCC and Madder Days 

[Footballking16]

19 minutes ago, cpg1970 said:

Unless you are a private school that can recruit.  I agree with you regarding public schools, who are forced to play the hand they are dealt.

Recruiting in the public schools is way more rampant than in the private schools...at least down here in Indy. 

[BTF]

41 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Recruiting in the public schools is way more rampant than in the private schools...at least down here in Indy. 

So what's Cathedral's secret then? How does this tiny little school of 1152 students compete with these mega 6A giants? Has nothing to do with Cathedral being a magnet school for football players? Or is the coaching staff just THAT good at getting the most of what they have. I mean damn, the teams they put together with an enrollment of 1152, I'm not sure Nick Saban could do that without a bit of help. 

[crimsonace1]

1 hour ago, PHJIrish said:

Maybe SF should just be renamed the Cathedral/Chatard factor.😉

I used to call it the Cathedral Factor, because every time it looked like Cathedral was going to drop out of 5A/6A, the IHSAA changed the thresholds to keep them up (from 4 points to 3, then 2 ... now back to 3) ... and New Pal would always seem to get caught in the net. 

[Footballking16]

15 minutes ago, BTF said:

So what's Cathedral's secret then? How does this tiny little school of 1152 students compete with these mega 6A giants? Has nothing to do with Cathedral being a magnet school for football players? Or is the coaching staff just THAT good at getting the most of what they have. I mean damn, the teams they put together with an enrollment of 1152, I'm not sure Nick Saban could do that without a bit of help. 

Success breeds success, what's new there? I'm talking about tampering and transferring running rampant here in central Indy...with public schools being the biggest offenders. Kids playing at multiple schools over 4 years. A kid living on one side of town playing for a high school on the other side of town. Kids jumping county lines to play sports. Kids following AAU coaches. It's happening everywhere.

Edited November 15, 2024 by Footballking16

[crimsonace1]

15 minutes ago, BTF said:

So what's Cathedral's secret then? How does this tiny little school of 1152 students compete with these mega 6A giants? Has nothing to do with Cathedral being a magnet school for football players? Or is the coaching staff just THAT good at getting the most of what they have. I mean damn, the teams they put together with an enrollment of 1152, I'm not sure Nick Saban could do that without a bit of help. 

Does Cathedral do some recruiting? Probably, but it's not like Nick Saban going into someone's house and saying "you should play for me," and really, it's fully within the rules. 

The "recruiting" is more having coaches/friends/alumni at independent training academies or youth travel programs like Team Indiana (not saying Cathedral does that, but it is how some of the "recruiting" can be done) and building relationships with younger athletes. It's also parents reaching out to other parents (honestly, most of the "recruiting" is done by parents, not by coaches), or an alumnus talking to a work colleague and encouraging them to check out the school. It's also relationships with the local parochial grade schools (but even then, you're competing with Chatard, Brebeuf and Roncalli for those kids).

In baseball, every time we play Cathedral, half the plates in the parking lot are from Hamilton County. They have a *very* strong connection with some of the big travel baseball programs in the state (and that's not necessarily coaches, but alumni and parents), and people who are willing to fork over thousands to put their kid on a high-level travel baseball team are not going to bat an eyelash at forking over tuition money for a private school. Obviously, a different sport, but the point holds. Their baseball coaches aren't going out and "recruiting," but the network of alumni, parents, et al, do talk to each other.  

But mostly, the program recruits itself. People see success and they want to be a part of it. Parents, rightly or wrongly, believe their kids have a better shot at being noticed by college coaches if they play on a team that makes deep tournament runs, and also, that indicates there's some pretty good coaching taking place. And, honestly, they may feel their kid will have a better high school experience being on a good team. Would you rather be playing for a team that has a shot at playing on Thanksgiving weekend, or a team that goes 3-7? 

And, honestly, that's not just uncommon to private/parochial schools. Successful public school programs also tend to have a number of good players move in and don't do any "recruiting." Families come because they see success on the field, they see players getting college offers and they want to be a part of it. Some families move into the community, but with open enrollment, you don't have to in most school districts. But with 30+ high schools within a half-hour's drive of downtown Indy, it's not difficult to find a situation to your liking, call a Realtor and find a new home. 

[BTF]

1 hour ago, PHJIrish said:

Maybe SF should just be renamed the Cathedral/Chatard factor.😉

Dwenger, Luers................Snider, New Pal, East Central

[adambetz]

And now Lutheran and Adams Central are well on their way to being in 3A in 2026.