Coach Nowlin Posted October 22, 2019 Posted October 22, 2019 http://indianahsfootball.homestead.com/files/pix.htm#loaded Only Indy Lutheran and Valparaiso get the coveted 90% with Lutheran at 94%!! 2
Guest Posted October 22, 2019 Posted October 22, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Coach Nowlin said: http://indianahsfootball.homestead.com/files/pix.htm#loaded Only Indy Lutheran and Valparaiso get the coveted 90% with Lutheran at 94%!! Surprised the numbers are so high on Lafayette Jeff, Penn, and Homestead in 6a. Wouldn't be surprised to see all three win and don’t really understand John’s formula but assume home field plays a role. Margin of victory also? As I say that however, Merrillville plays a tougher schedule AND is HOSTING Jeff yet the numbers like the Bronchos. Penn/Warsaw looks like a toss up with Chesterton lurking. Homestead is the one I actually agree with most but I thought Snider would be a bit closer. Fun to look at nonetheless! Edited October 22, 2019 by Guest
Coach Nowlin Posted October 22, 2019 Author Posted October 22, 2019 Chesterton has a VERY GOOD QB, but only a SOPH I believe. Dual threat guy I believe
dmizers3 Posted October 22, 2019 Posted October 22, 2019 Surprised at how big a favorite Cathedral is in 5A. I tend to agree they might be a slight favorite. But its kind of shocking that they are as big a favorite as they are. 1
Warren05 Posted October 22, 2019 Posted October 22, 2019 So Brownsburgh has a better chance of winning the sectional but Avo has the better chance of winning state. Makes sence to me
hhpatriot04 Posted October 22, 2019 Posted October 22, 2019 Anyone want to compare it with CalPreps and Sagarins predictors? @TW has done this before and I believe win-loss correct predictions was 78 percent throughout the tournament using Sagarin. That was 10 years ago and Sagarin now gives weight to games recent. I've thought about building a win probability feature into the predictor (similar to how the Superbowl for example said the falcons had something like a 98 percent chance of beating the Patriots with their halftime lead). It's not an exact science, but would be interesting to "check" Sagarin whose formulas are used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. 1
DanteEstonia Posted October 23, 2019 Posted October 23, 2019 14 hours ago, hhpatriot04 said: It's not an exact science, but would be interesting to "check" Sagarin whose formulas are used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. It might prove that Sagarin ratings aren’t objective. 1
Muda69 Posted October 23, 2019 Posted October 23, 2019 Wonder if schools with an effective zero percent chance of winning a section should even be allowed in the playoff to begin with? 1
Guest Posted October 23, 2019 Posted October 23, 2019 17 minutes ago, Muda69 said: Wonder if schools with an effective zero percent chance of winning a section should even be allowed in the playoff to begin with? Nah, they should just be allowed to play with 13 guys on defense. #lackofsuccessfactor
DanteEstonia Posted October 23, 2019 Posted October 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Muda69 said: Wonder if schools with an effective zero percent chance of winning a section should even be allowed in the playoff to begin with? Yes. 2
FastpacedO Posted October 23, 2019 Posted October 23, 2019 22 hours ago, dmizers3 said: Surprised at how big a favorite Cathedral is in 5A. I tend to agree they might be a slight favorite. But its kind of shocking that they are as big a favorite as they are. I'm not sure if they are a favorite. I think New Pal and Cathedral are right there at the top as favorites in 5A. That being said, I think the numbers that the percentages come from are skewed only because of some of the conference opponents New Pal has (not in New Pal's control). Also there are 8 teams that can boost or drop for New Pal by the numbers in Sagarin and only 5 for Cathedral (since sagarin does not include out of state teams). Actual talent and play between the 2 (New Pal and Cathedral) I think it's a toss up. Just my personal opinion. 1
bigfish Posted October 23, 2019 Posted October 23, 2019 49 minutes ago, FastpacedO said: I'm not sure if they are a favorite. I think New Pal and Cathedral are right there at the top as favorites in 5A. That being said, I think the numbers that the percentages come from are skewed only because of some of the conference opponents New Pal has (not in New Pal's control). Also there are 8 teams that can boost or drop for New Pal by the numbers in Sagarin and only 5 for Cathedral (since sagarin does not include out of state teams). Actual talent and play between the 2 (New Pal and Cathedral) I think it's a toss up. Just my personal opinion. I agree
hhpatriot04 Posted October 23, 2019 Posted October 23, 2019 15 minutes ago, bigfish said: I agree Hand them both trophies and remove the 4A state finals. Only semistate in 4A this year. #TheNewIHSAA
bigfish Posted October 23, 2019 Posted October 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, hhpatriot04 said: Hand them both trophies and remove the 4A state finals. Only semistate in 4A this year. #TheNewIHSAA Sorry - I was just agreeing with New Pal and Cathedral being relatively even and thinking it would be a good game should they meet
dmizers3 Posted October 23, 2019 Posted October 23, 2019 1 hour ago, FastpacedO said: I'm not sure if they are a favorite. I think New Pal and Cathedral are right there at the top as favorites in 5A. That being said, I think the numbers that the percentages come from are skewed only because of some of the conference opponents New Pal has (not in New Pal's control). Also there are 8 teams that can boost or drop for New Pal by the numbers in Sagarin and only 5 for Cathedral (since sagarin does not include out of state teams). Actual talent and play between the 2 (New Pal and Cathedral) I think it's a toss up. Just my personal opinion. I agree with everything you said. I was just shocked by John Harrell's percentages.
Lysander Posted October 23, 2019 Posted October 23, 2019 1 hour ago, hhpatriot04 said: Hand them both trophies and remove the 4A state finals. Only semistate in 4A this year. #TheNewIHSAA Errrr.....5A?
oldtimeqb Posted October 24, 2019 Posted October 24, 2019 5 hours ago, Lysander said: Errrr.....5A? I thought it was a dig at the success factor. Aren’t NP and Cath two 4A schools (by enrollment) playing for a 5A title? I could be wrong though. 2
Lysander Posted October 24, 2019 Posted October 24, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, oldtimeqb said: I thought it was a dig at the success factor. Aren’t NP and Cath two 4A schools (by enrollment) playing for a 5A title? I could be wrong though. Yeah.....I wasn’t sure either. But, yes, both are 4A by enrollment playing up (along with Dwenger....also Columbus East is playing up 2 classes....well, only one now since they are currently 5A by size). Edited October 24, 2019 by Lysander 1
WCGrad92 Posted October 24, 2019 Posted October 24, 2019 After filling out my brackets for the tourney, I came up with these Finalists. Again, I am not looking for anyone to agree or disagree, just my gut going through all the games one at a time and placing who I think is going to win on any given Friday. 6A - Avon (23.38%) vs Homestead(1.95%) (Yes, I realize first year no MIC team in Final) 5A - New Palestine(18.87%) vs Valparaiso(21.32%) 4A - East Noble(7.21%) vs East Central(19.15%) 3A - Ind. Chatard(63.18%) vs Heritage Hills(9.96%) 2A - Cass(28.03%) vs Evans Mater Dei(7.18%) 1A - South Adams(14.75%) vs Ind Lutheran(53.6%) Just my 2 cents
Guest Posted October 24, 2019 Posted October 24, 2019 (edited) On 10/22/2019 at 2:47 PM, dmizers3 said: Surprised at how big a favorite Cathedral is in 5A. I tend to agree they might be a slight favorite. But its kind of shocking that they are as big a favorite as they are. I too am shocked by this. I will not pretend to know the formula but common sense would state that a high priority is placed on home field advantage and strength of schedule? But then again Cathedral has no true home field which I’m sure the computer model does not recognize. I mentioned earlier that Lafayette Jeff being favored over Merrillville on the road despite having not played as tough of a schedule surprised me and means it also has to place a high priority on margin of victory, no? Edited October 24, 2019 by Guest
FastpacedO Posted October 24, 2019 Posted October 24, 2019 19 hours ago, dmizers3 said: I agree with everything you said. I was just shocked by John Harrell's percentages. 41 minutes ago, Temptation said: I too am shocked by this. I will not pretend to know the formula but common sense would state that a high priority is placed on home field advantage and strength of schedule? But then again Cathedral has no true home field which I’m sure the computer model does not recognize. I mentioned earlier that Lafayette Jeff being favored over Merrillville on the road despite having not played as tough of a schedule surprised me and means it also has to place a high priority on margin of victory, no? I may be wrong, but I believe it is 100% based on the sagarin ratings to get the percentages.
Guest Posted October 24, 2019 Posted October 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, FastpacedO said: I may be wrong, but I believe it is 100% based on the sagarin ratings to get the percentages. I am aware of that. Jeff’s formula is the one I’m referring to.
dmizers3 Posted October 24, 2019 Posted October 24, 2019 1 hour ago, FastpacedO said: I may be wrong, but I believe it is 100% based on the sagarin ratings to get the percentages. If that's the case it should still be closer. Cathedral and New Pal are less than a point difference in Sagarin.
oldtimeqb Posted October 24, 2019 Posted October 24, 2019 2 hours ago, dmizers3 said: If that's the case it should still be closer. Cathedral and New Pal are less than a point difference in Sagarin. You can't win state if you don't win your sectional - or even your first game. New Pal plays at 6-3 Whiteland (74.38 Sagarin rating) in Game 1, while Cathedral hosts 5-4 TH South (65.76 rating). Based on 1,000 or so (it might even be 10,000 ) computer simulations, Whiteland will beat New Pal more times than THS beats Cathedral, even if both are small possibilities. I'm also guessing more simulations show New Pal playing AT Cathedral when they meet, and therefore Cathedral also gets a homefield bump in those simulations. Those two percentage bumps get carried through all the tournament projections.
Gipper Posted October 16, 2021 Posted October 16, 2021 On 10/23/2019 at 8:42 AM, DanteEstonia said: Yes. I agree!
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