IFD Dandy Dozen 4A

[Titan32]

[npcougar15]

There is a major gap between the North/South in 4A right now. Not sure what certain programs from the South lost, but East Central should be the favorite by a long shot. New Pal, Roncalli, Memorial, and Reitz should round out the top 5 if we are being honest. Northwood seems way too high and Kokomo had a lot of impact seniors leave to be considered top 5. My top 10 would look more like:

1. East Central - Heavy favorite

2a. New Pal - Even if they take a step back they are still top 5 in 4A

2b. Roncalli - Even if they take a step back they are still top 5 in 4A

4. Reitz - Damn good team last year, just had a hiccup at a horrible time

5. Memorial - Outside of Roncalli; played EC the toughest.

6. New Prairie - Lost some pieces but have enough returning from a trip to Indy to warrant the top spot from the North

7. Kokomo - Had some big boys that are gone. Don't know what they have returning, but I can see them being TOUGH

8. Northwood - unfortunate circumstance last year, but they weren't getting by NP. NW seems overrated every year. Lost too much to be #3

9. Mooresville - Been solid the last 5 years. And with a HOFer at the helm they Aren't going anywhere. Pretty underrated program.

10. Northview - Not much to go off of. Just like them in this slot

Edited July 27, 2023 by npcougar15
grammar

[Muda69]

Go Kokomo Wildkats.

[PantherPride]

You have to wonder if the author doesn’t realize that Tuggle transferred from Northwood to IMG. If he was back putting Northwood up there would make more sense. Yes there would’ve been a lot of losses, but you’d have 2 D1 WRs with a returning QB and RB. They’d score a ton of points. As it is I’d say the Panthers are top 10, but more towards the back end than the top. 

[Football Fanatic]

2 hours ago, npcougar15 said:

There is a major gap between the North/South in 4A right now. Not sure what certain programs from the South lost, but East Central should be the favorite by a long shot. New Pal, Roncalli, Memorial, and Reitz should round out the top 5 if we are being honest.

Definitely agree that there is a large gap. This year I think East Central, Reitz, Roncalli, and New Pal would all win state against the North team that makes it. That's not even saying the North teams aren't good, it's just the south is loaded right now.

[npcougar15]

29 minutes ago, Football Fanatic said:

Definitely agree that there is a large gap. This year I think East Central, Reitz, Roncalli, and New Pal would all win state against the North team that makes it. That's not even saying the North teams aren't good, it's just the south is loaded right now.

Those 4 would all be near the top in 5A as well and probably be favored against 90% of 6A teams. As you said 4A south is just loaded right now. 

[Donnie Baker]

6 minutes ago, npcougar15 said:

Those 4 would all be near the top in 5A as well and probably be favored against 90% of 6A teams. As you said 4A south is just loaded right now. 

I kinda suck at math, I swear to God I do. But that means about only 4 6A teams would be favored over those 4? 

[scarab527]

Gap between 4A South and 4A North is arguably the biggest interclass gap in the state. A public school from the North hasn’t won 4A since Lowell in 2005 (only North school to win in that time is Dwenger), and most of the games haven’t been close. 

[TigerFan20]

5 hours ago, npcougar15 said:

5. Memorial - Outside of Roncalli; played EC the toughest.

This will be a reloading year for my Tigers, we lost a majority of our OL and all of our DL. Lots of holes to fill on that front, since there is some concern, however, I’m optimistic about the OL/DL. We will have some hiccups along the way, but, it feels like we have a lot of athletes to at the other positions. Just ready for some Tiger football!

[BTF]

2 hours ago, Donnie Baker said:

I kinda suck at math, I swear to God I do. But that means about only 4 6A teams would be favored over those 4? 

Beat me to it.

50% would be more accurate in 6A. Ninety percent would be accurate in 5A.

Edited July 27, 2023 by BTF

[tango]

5 hours ago, Football Fanatic said:

Definitely agree that there is a large gap. This year I think East Central, Reitz, Roncalli, and New Pal would all win state against the North team that makes it. That's not even saying the North teams aren't good, it's just the south is loaded right now.

Reitz is going to have to win something before I would put them anywhere near the same category as East Central, Roncalli and New Pal. I think Reitz at #2 is as over-valued as Ev. Memorial being #6. 

[npcougar15]

15 hours ago, BTF said:

Beat me to it.

50% would be more accurate in 6A. Ninety percent would be accurate in 5A.

So you are telling me that Roncalli, East Central, and New Pal wouldn't be favored against Franklin Central (3-7), Penn (7-3), Warsaw (8-3), Noblesville (4-7). Because those 4 schools were ranked smack dab in the middle of 6A

[BTF]

6 hours ago, npcougar15 said:

So you are telling me that Roncalli, East Central, and New Pal wouldn't be favored against Franklin Central (3-7), Penn (7-3), Warsaw (8-3), Noblesville (4-7). Because those 4 schools were ranked smack dab in the middle of 6A

I was looking at Sagarin's final rankings last season. I think 13 through 16 would give your four 4A schools all they could handle. I'd take 1 through 12 over your four if I were a betting man. 

Warsaw and Noblesville were ranked 17 and 18. I'd take your four over both those schools. 

Edited July 28, 2023 by BTF

[Boilernation]

4 hours ago, BTF said:

I was looking at Sagarin's final rankings last season. I think 13 through 16 would give your four 4A schools all they could handle. I'd take 1 through 12 over your four if I were a betting man. 

Warsaw and Noblesville were ranked 17 and 18. I'd take your four over both those schools. 

I would agree with you. You don’t even have to look back too far (2022) to see Noblesville giving the 4A Champ their only loss. A big and powerful 6A OL like Noblesville has been putting out can be a lot for a 4A defensive front 7 to handle when the depth isn’t there. 

[Boilernation]

On 7/28/2023 at 9:01 PM, Boilernation said:

I would agree with you. You don’t even have to look back too far (2022) to see Noblesville giving the 4A Champ their only loss. A big and powerful 6A OL like Noblesville has been putting out can be a lot for a 4A defensive front 7 to handle when the depth isn’t there. 

Meant to say I wouldn’t agree regarding Noblesville. 

[scarab527]

New Pal beat Westfield (#6 team in 6A per Sagarin) last year by 2 TDs. Roncalli also beat Franklin Central. Don’t think it’s too outrageous to say New Pal, Roncalli, or EC could’ve beat a majority of 6A teams last year in a 1-off game (competing against a full schedule of 6A teams might be a different story however). 
 

I also think any one of those 3 teams would’ve won 5A last year. 

But none of that matters to this year. I think East Central is a heavy favorite in 4A. They bring back all the key players that made them champs last year, and Roncalli/New Pal, their main competition, lost quite a bit (Roncalli more so). Hard for me to see anything other than an EC repeat this year, but this class has had a few big upsets in the Southern half of the bracket the past few years. 

[scarab527]

On 7/28/2023 at 7:18 PM, BDOOM said:

Rumor is Tuggle is back for NW there offense should be scary

Where there’s smoke, there’s fire. NorthWood has to be the favorite in 4A North now, no?

[psaboy]

1 hour ago, scarab527 said:

Where there’s smoke, there’s fire. NorthWood has to be the favorite in 4A North now, no?

I would think so if they can stay disciplined thru post season. 

[BTF]

3 hours ago, scarab527 said:

I also think any one of those 3 teams would’ve won 5A last year. 

Snider and North Side would have been pretty dangerous on turf at Lucas Oil. Remember, semi-state last year was played in a snow storm. 

[scarab527]

17 hours ago, BTF said:

Snider and North Side would have been pretty dangerous on turf at Lucas Oil. Remember, semi-state last year was played in a snow storm. 

They would've had to win in that snowstorm to get to the LOS turf. 

Either way, I'd still take EC/New Pal/Roncalli. 

[Boilernation]

1 hour ago, scarab527 said:

They would've had to win in that snowstorm to get to the LOS turf. 

Either way, I'd still take EC/New Pal/Roncalli. 

Why are you so bullish on EC/New Pal/Roncalli vs. Valpo, Snider or North? They all seem to match up well as each feed off of dominating line play. I doubt any of the teams would have much of a size advantage on the lines. North probably has the best collection of skill talent among the group with EC possibly being 2nd. In my opinion, North majorly choked against Snider. They had that game won if they kept feeding Johnson the ball on the outside with short passes. I have a feeling they'll end Valpo's bid at a repeat if they can get over the mental roadblock that is Snider. I would be surprised if Dwenger is much of a threat for Snider or North in Sectional 12.

[scarab527]

24 minutes ago, Boilernation said:

Why are you so bullish on EC/New Pal/Roncalli vs. Valpo, Snider or North? They all seem to match up well as each feed off of dominating line play. I doubt any of the teams would have much of a size advantage on the lines. North probably has the best collection of skill talent among the group with EC possibly being 2nd. In my opinion, North majorly choked against Snider. They had that game won if they kept feeding Johnson the ball on the outside with short passes. I have a feeling they'll end Valpo's bid at a repeat if they can get over the mental roadblock that is Snider. I would be surprised if Dwenger is much of a threat for Snider or North in Sectional 12.

By the eye test and judging their victories last season, in my opinion, those three 4A teams were just a step above the 5A teams. Really more a testament to how good those teams were as opposed to 5A being weak (though it arguably is). 
 

I would also say the lines for those three teams down south were better than those of the northern 5A teams, for what it’s worth. 

North is the most dangerous team just by looking at their roster, but individual talent only takes you so far. As of now, the top teams in the class are all very close in terms of team skill. Valpo is far from a sure thing. 

[BTF]

1 hour ago, Boilernation said:

North majorly choked against Snider. 

North really was that good. They led Snider until late in the 4th. Just like Snider led Valpo until late in the 4th. In good weather conditions, North Side was the best team Snider faced last year outside of Carroll. 

[Boilernation]

18 hours ago, scarab527 said:

By the eye test and judging their victories last season, in my opinion, those three 4A teams were just a step above the 5A teams. Really more a testament to how good those teams were as opposed to 5A being weak (though it arguably is). 
 

I would also say the lines for those three teams down south were better than those of the northern 5A teams, for what it’s worth. 

North is the most dangerous team just by looking at their roster, but individual talent only takes you so far. As of now, the top teams in the class are all very close in terms of team skill. Valpo is far from a sure thing. 

No argument from me. All 6 are solid in my opinion. I think Valpo is pretty similiar to the 3 4A teams in that their bread and butter is going to be trying to control the line with size and very physical & disciplined line play. East Central has a very nice added wrinkle this year with 2 MAC recruits that are big and fast to give the ball to. 

I like North, a lot. They have size and D1 talent all over the place. I just don't trust them. The Sectional loss to Snider pgretty much sums it up for me. IMO, they didn't give Johnson enough touches towards the end of the game and Snider clearly has a mental hold on them. IF they could get past Snider this year I would probably pick them to beat Valpo. It's tough to repeat. 

Regarding 5A, 4A obviously has the same problem. 5A is stacked in the North while 4A is stacked in the South. Fortunately  in 5A the South is capable of putting up a fight in Lucas Oil. Valpo vs. Whiteland was a phenomenal game to watch.  I'm sure whomever comes out the South this year will be good enough win. The 4A Title game has the makings of another massacre this year unless NorthWood can put together a team to compliment their absurd talent at WR. I still can't believe they have a Georgia commit and Purdue commit at WR. Pretty wild. 

[scarab527]

56 minutes ago, Boilernation said:

No argument from me. All 6 are solid in my opinion. I think Valpo is pretty similiar to the 3 4A teams in that their bread and butter is going to be trying to control the line with size and very physical & disciplined line play. East Central has a very nice added wrinkle this year with 2 MAC recruits that are big and fast to give the ball to. 

I like North, a lot. They have size and D1 talent all over the place. I just don't trust them. The Sectional loss to Snider pgretty much sums it up for me. IMO, they didn't give Johnson enough touches towards the end of the game and Snider clearly has a mental hold on them. IF they could get past Snider this year I would probably pick them to beat Valpo. It's tough to repeat. 

Regarding 5A, 4A obviously has the same problem. 5A is stacked in the North while 4A is stacked in the South. Fortunately  in 5A the South is capable of putting up a fight in Lucas Oil. Valpo vs. Whiteland was a phenomenal game to watch.  I'm sure whomever comes out the South this year will be good enough win. The 4A Title game has the makings of another massacre this year unless NorthWood can put together a team to compliment their absurd talent at WR. I still can't believe they have a Georgia commit and Purdue commit at WR. Pretty wild. 

I think (maybe more so hope) what we'll see in the near future is that EC, Roncalli, and New Pal will become more or less permanent residents of 5A. This will make the class a lot stronger while also making 4A a lot more balanced. In that situation Roncalli and New Pal would likely be at least in the same regional, so they would probably take turns bouncing back down and up again. But I think this would be overall good for the competitiveness of 4A/5A. 

FW North is super intriguing for sure. They've got one of the best players in the state suiting up for them and a buzz around them as an up-and-coming program. As for their Snider roadblock, I think another big thing that gives the Panthers the edge in that rivalry is that Tippman has been coaching probably close to as long as North's coach has been alive. That degree of a gap in experience shouldn't be understated. The mental hurtle that you mentioned is probably playing a factor as well. When you've been 'little brother' for so long, that can start to effect the psyche of a team. Almost like a self-fulfilling prophecy. 

A year after it ended up being the most exciting class in the state, 5A is wide open again and looking like it'll be just as exciting. It won't be easy for whoever is left standing.

I think NorthWood has the best chance of any 4A North team in a while to make the game competitive, assuming they get to LOS. But we'll see how it all plays out. The South has been so dominant in that class that I just would like a halfway decent game.