Is New Pal a Lock in 5A?

[temptation]

I know, I know, I know…it’s high school football and anything can happen but are the Dragons the biggest state finals favorite of the 6 classes?

Temp thinks so.

I know the board has mixed feelings on Sagarin but New Pal is currently #1 state wide.

Discuss.

[Footballking16]

36 minutes ago, temptation said:

I know, I know, I know…it’s high school football and anything can happen but are the Dragons the biggest state finals favorite of the 6 classes?

Temp thinks so.

I know the board has mixed feelings on Sagarin but New Pal is currently #1 state wide.

Discuss.

As close to a lock as it gets.

Bigger question is: with new two year rolling cycle, does New Pal bump to 6A after this season or next? There’s a very real chance Cathedral is in 4A after the 26-27 school year.

[Flyingangel]

57 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

As close to a lock as it gets.

Bigger question is: with new two year rolling cycle, does New Pal bump to 6A after this season or next? There’s a very real chance Cathedral is in 4A after the 26-27 school year.

New pal is definitely the favorite. But I wound t count out cathedral and east central in south. They have the talent to make things a fight. And in the north. As much as we all hate to hear it. I wouldn’t look past Lafayette Jeff or Merrillville. Both have the speed and athleticism in the spots needed to beat new pal. But yes new pal is the favorite 

[Irishman]

1 hour ago, Footballking16 said:

As close to a lock as it gets.

Bigger question is: with new two year rolling cycle, does New Pal bump to 6A after this season or next? There’s a very real chance Cathedral is in 4A after the 26-27 school year.

With he bump up or move down no longer following the 2 year reclassification cycle, it will depend on what they do this year and next. It's any 2 year period now. Dwenger was moved down to 4A from 5A in the middle of the 22-23 cycle. New Pal was moved up to 5A this year after winning the 4A title last year and winning a regional the year before. So they have to repeat that this season and next. 

[roaringthunderdlr]

There's a third team in Sectional 13 that's at least worthy of some recognition 🙂

In all seriousness, it seems unlikely that Plainfield can win the sectional, unfortunately. We'll have to see how the Decatur game goes on the 27th before we make better judgement on how we can fare against New Pal (who beat DC) and Cathedral.

New Pal's offense is electric. No doubt about it. Nearly unstoppable. In order to keep this hypothetical game within reach, Plainfield will have to somehow control the clock using Luke Starnes (RB). New Pal's linebackers can close the gaps and prevent a RB from getting to the second level fast. Very freaking fast. Starnes is a true power back though, and has the ability to push defenders in order to gain extra yards. Plainfield could perhaps try to run the ball with Bryce Sebanc (QB) to mix in some variety with the run game or try a short, west-coast style passing game. Plainfield has very capable receivers in Ethan Ellis, who is currently injured but will be back for sectional, and Zander Nattam, who had a breakout game against Mooresville with 9 catches, 140 yards and 4 TDs. Nattam has 70+ receiving yards and 7+ catches in every game so far this year. Don't forget about Coen Vanderbush or Mason Beers either. 

Cathedral's defense... well... is the defensive equivalent of New Pal's offense. It will be hard to move the ball on them under any circumstance. But Cathedral's offense leaves a lot to be desired so far in the year. They have been playing against elite competition, but have still found some trouble putting points on the scoreboard. They were shutout by Brownsburg, which seemed fine at the start of the year, but looks much worse now that Avon scored 47 on that exact same defense. Plainfield's defense is led by star safety Ty White, a sophomore that I like to call the Plainfield version of Caleb Downs. White is all over the field, always finding a way to make plays and lead. Super athletic, athletic enough to the point that Plainfield has put him in at punt returner (he has scored a punt return TD this year) and even wide receiver. Plainfield does not usually have 2-way players, so this is a testament to how talented White really is. Plainfield also has very capable and talented players at linebacker too, such as Tyler Simek and Blake Larrison, a newcomer who has really impressed so far. Three seniors play on the defensive line as well, ends Drew White (Ty's brother) and Jordan Robertson (former DC Hawk), as well as defensive tackle Brody Clampitt (Monrovia transfer).

Overall, I feel like we've got a pretty good squad and can make some noise if given the right opportunity.

[Boilernation]

3 hours ago, Flyingangel said:

 I wouldn’t look past or Merrillville. Both have the speed and athleticism in the spots needed to beat new pal. But yes new pal is the favorite 

I don't see it. Let's just celebrate the Pirates if they can break their O'fer string in Semi-State. The Bulldog lines of Crown Point completely manhandled and abused Merrillville. What do you think will happen if they ran into a Kyle Ralph coached line? Complete domination. 2019 Valpo showed The Region what you need on the lines talent wise and skill wise to compete with an elite Kyle Ralph team. This Merrillville team doesn't have it and having some speed at the skill positions won't do much. I would LOVE to be wrong and see the Pirates win state, but I'm afraid Temp is correct and 5A is a lock for New Pal at this point. Kyle Ralph is THE man. 

[Boilernation]

5 hours ago, temptation said:

I know, I know, I know…it’s high school football and anything can happen but are the Dragons the biggest state finals favorite of the 6 classes?

Temp thinks so.

I know the board has mixed feelings on Sagarin but New Pal is currently #1 state wide.

Discuss.

Slightly changing topicc, any chance Warren Township talent starts heading accross the county line and not to the neighborhoods that feed into Mt. Vernon. I don't know much about the housing developments and population trends down there. It's clear Brownsburg really took off when demographics started changing and Wayne Township type of talent started moving west of  Raceway Road. 

[Flyingangel]

3 hours ago, Irishman said:

With he bump up or move down no longer following the 2 year reclassification cycle, it will depend on what they do this year and next. It's any 2 year period now. Dwenger was moved down to 4A from 5A in the middle of the 22-23 cycle. New Pal was moved up to 5A this year after winning the 4A title last year and winning a regional the year before. So they have to repeat that this season and next. 

To correct you it’s a 2 year rolling cycle. So it’s not this year and next year. It’s last year and this year combine for the next year. Teams can move up and down yearly now. 

[LC_Bears_04]

5 hours ago, temptation said:

I know, I know, I know…it’s high school football and anything can happen but are the Dragons the biggest state finals favorite of the 6 classes?

Temp thinks so.

I know the board has mixed feelings on Sagarin but New Pal is currently #1 state wide.

Discuss.

Cathedral is the only team left on New Palestine's schedule that can give them a game.  Even in that game, Cathedral's offense won't be able to keep up with New Palestine's offense and I expect New Palestine to win by 2 scores.  The rest of the teams on their regular season and postseason schedule they should blow out of the water.  In my single class rankings I have New Palestine ranked fourth, behind only Brownsburg, Center Grove, and Carmel.  I'd like to see them play whoever wins the class 6A title (probably Brownsburg) so we could determine a true state champion.

[Irishman]

5 hours ago, Flyingangel said:

To correct you it’s a 2 year rolling cycle. So it’s not this year and next year. It’s last year and this year combine for the next year. Teams can move up and down yearly now. 

Yes, like I said, it’s 2 years and does not follow the reclassification cycle. New Pal competed in 4A last year and the year before. This is their first year back in 5A due to the success factor. So it will be based on what they do this year and next year. They will not move back to 4A if they come up short of the success points this season. 

[Sparty]

Can someone refresh my memory?   Is NP 5A by enrollment numbers or SF?

[Footballking16]

8 hours ago, Boilernation said:

Slightly changing topicc, any chance Warren Township talent starts heading accross the county line and not to the neighborhoods that feed into Mt. Vernon. I don't know much about the housing developments and population trends down there. It's clear Brownsburg really took off when demographics started changing and Wayne Township type of talent started moving west of  Raceway Road. 

Think you'd be more inclined to see Warren kids heading to New Pal as opposed to Mt Vernon. Lawrence Twp has been hemorrhaging kids to Mt Vernon for quite some time now. Probably the best athlete to ever go through Mt Vernon (Luke Ertel top 50 basketball recruit) is a Lawrence Twp kid. 

[Frozen Tundra]

38 minutes ago, Sparty said:

Can someone refresh my memory?   Is NP 5A by enrollment numbers or SF?

They’re 5A due to success factor. If you threw them back in 4A they’d be the 20th largest school. East Central is also playing up in 5A due to success factor and they’re also bigger than New Palestine.

Overall, East Central is the 80th largest school in the state and New Palestine is 83rd based on the enrollment numbers the IHSAA released prior to last season.

[Just a dad]

13 hours ago, Flyingangel said:

New pal is definitely the favorite. But I wound t count out cathedral and east central in south. They have the talent to make things a fight. And in the north. As much as we all hate to hear it. I wouldn’t look past Lafayette Jeff or Merrillville. Both have the speed and athleticism in the spots needed to beat new pal. But yes new pal is the favorite 

I watched Cathedral vs BCHS on Friday. Chatard outplayed them with a sophomore QB for 3 quarters. Cathedral does not have the talent to compete in 5A this year and wouldn’t win 4A. They just don’t have the skill position talent that they used to. The multiple transfers from their program might reveal a deeper issue with the teams talent level than originally thought.  Good thing they have a D1 kicker. He saved them on Friday

[Footballking16]

13 minutes ago, Just a dad said:

I watched Cathedral vs BCHS on Friday. Chatard outplayed them with a sophomore QB for 3 quarters. Cathedral does not have the talent to compete in 5A this year and wouldn’t win 4A. They just don’t have the skill position talent that they used to. The multiple transfers from their program might reveal a deeper issue with the teams talent level than originally thought.  Good thing they have a D1 kicker. He saved them on Friday

And to add on to that, as down as I am on this season, the future looks worse. Cathedrals' JV and freshman aren't very good and it's not because a bunch of underclassmen are playing varsity either.

[Frozen Tundra]

19 minutes ago, Just a dad said:

I watched Cathedral vs BCHS on Friday. Chatard outplayed them with a sophomore QB for 3 quarters. Cathedral does not have the talent to compete in 5A this year and wouldn’t win 4A. They just don’t have the skill position talent that they used to. The multiple transfers from their program might reveal a deeper issue with the teams talent level than originally thought.  Good thing they have a D1 kicker. He saved them on Friday

Where are these kids going? Are there one or two schools benefiting from this or is it pretty spread out?

[Footballking16]

1 minute ago, Frozen Tundra said:

Where are these kids going? Are there one or two schools benefiting from this or is it pretty spread out?

Most went to North Central. One to Lawrence North. A few freshman last year transferred to Chatard. Will be a ripple effect that becomes more noticeable in the coming years.

[tango]

14 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

As close to a lock as it gets.

Bigger question is: with new two year rolling cycle, does New Pal bump to 6A after this season or next? There’s a very real chance Cathedral is in 4A after the 26-27 school year.

I believe under the new rules, if NewPal wins at least a Regional this year, they would bump because they accumulated 4 points last year with the state title.

[Frozen Tundra]

9 minutes ago, tango said:

I believe under the new rules, if NewPal wins at least a Regional this year, they would bump because they accumulated 4 points last year with the state title.

No this is only their first year in 5A. Therefore, this year and next year will determine if they bump up to 6A, remain in 5A, or fall back to 4A for the 2027 and 2028 seasons.

[HoopsCoach]

29 minutes ago, tango said:

I believe under the new rules, if NewPal wins at least a Regional this year, they would bump because they accumulated 4 points last year with the state title.

SF points do not accumulate across multiple classes when a team moves up/down.  The points reset when a team changes classes, so New Pal is on a 2 year cycle for the 2025 and 2026 seasons in 5A.  The points they accumulate from the 2025 and 2026 seasons will determine whether they move up to 6A, stay in 5A, or return to 4A in 2027.  Enrollment classifications will happen in the spring of 2026 for the 2026-27 and 2027-28 cycle.  New Pal will stay in 5A for at least the first year of that cycle due to success factor.

[First_Backer_Inside]

Everybody can recruit now and the private schools all of a sudden aren't as dominant as usual...interesting. 

[Footballking16]

13 minutes ago, First_Backer_Inside said:

Everybody can recruit now and the private schools all of a sudden aren't as dominant as usual...interesting. 

Not sure I'd go that far

[foxbat]

14 hours ago, Flyingangel said:

New pal is definitely the favorite. But I wound t count out cathedral and east central in south. They have the talent to make things a fight. And in the north. As much as we all hate to hear it. I wouldn’t look past Lafayette Jeff or Merrillville. Both have the speed and athleticism in the spots needed to beat new pal. But yes new pal is the favorite 

Perhaps, but Jeff currently lacks the consistency and the discipline right now.  Watched them play against Harrison this last Friday.  Harrison is definitely not the Harrison of the last half-decade, but still has a little spunk.  Jeff spotted Harrison two TDs on the first two possessions with both of their first two possessions ending in interceptions.  Jeff's clearly bigger and faster than Harrison and one of their players had like six sacks on his own.  At the same time, Jeff must have had at least 5-6 personal / unsportsmanlike fouls in the game, including three on a single play.  They also had the "Jeff special" offsides plays that Harrison, and other teams, have consistently caught them on for over the past half decade plus.  In addition, they had at least an additional 3 or so offsides that were on their own without any help.  Toss in a few holding penalties and even a 15-yard OFFENSIVE facemask call and you have part of what was seen last Friday that just diminishes their output potential.  I didn't see the penalty stats for the game posted, but I wouldn't be surprised if someone told me that Jeff had close to 130-150 yards in penalties.  The stats will show that Jeff had some 600 yards of offense, but on one series alone, Jeff ended up having to reclaim the same 20-yard stretch of turf like three times due to penalties in a series.  They have the weapons, but they still end up being their own worst enemy in getting 100% out of their resources. 

They looked good against Chatard, at least on paper, but the performance was choppy against a clearly outmatched Harrison offensive line.  Harrison also provided some short fields with play calling that also allowed Jeff to make sure that Harrison never got close in the game after being spotted the initial 12 points.  Of the first four games, I'd say that Harrison was the third "best" of the teams Jeff faced.  The rest of their schedule provides them no help either getting ready for the post season in 5A. Yes, they have an easy sectional with McCutcheon, Kokomo, and SB Adams ... the best of which, Kokomo, posted a 5-5 record last season, and which are a collective 4-8 so far this season ... so they should easily make it to regionals.  The remainder of their regular season has them playing 4A Richmond, 5A in name-only Anderson, 5A Kokomo, 4A Marion, and 4A Muncie Central.  Those five teams are a collective 4-16.

Best plan of attack for Jeff moving forward is to realize that there's no resistance in the next five games, so the performative chest-thumping, pointing on first down, etc. need to be less of the focus and more tailoring the game to limiting self-inflicted penalties and mistakes.  Jeff will clearly dominate those five games, but the score on the board should be less an indication of victory as very limited penalties, zero turnovers, and extremely limited mistakes.  Jeff facing off against New Pal, playing them like they played Harrison, with spotting New Pal two TDs on the first two possessions, multiple personal fouls, multiple self-inflicted offsides/procedure calls, three interceptions, and a scoreless third quarter won't likely be anywhere close to close.  That may be true of many post-season opponents after sectionals.  Jeff's biggest opponent for the next seven games is themselves.

[First_Backer_Inside]

1 hour ago, Footballking16 said:

Not sure I'd go that far

I had to try lol.

[tango]

2 hours ago, HoopsCoach said:

SF points do not accumulate across multiple classes when a team moves up/down.  The points reset when a team changes classes, so New Pal is on a 2 year cycle for the 2025 and 2026 seasons in 5A.  The points they accumulate from the 2025 and 2026 seasons will determine whether they move up to 6A, stay in 5A, or return to 4A in 2027.  Enrollment classifications will happen in the spring of 2026 for the 2026-27 and 2027-28 cycle.  New Pal will stay in 5A for at least the first year of that cycle due to success factor.

I was not aware NP got bumped up this year. I thought they were 5A last year too. My mistake...