Success Factor Points Update (2025 Season)

[US31]

13 hours ago, foxbat said:

Think I'm gonna have to disagree with this.

There is ALWAYS a bad end of the bell curve.  The ONLY people that should make decisions based on that end is OSHA...

[foxbat]

19 hours ago, US31 said:

There is ALWAYS a bad end of the bell curve.  The ONLY people that should make decisions based on that end is OSHA...

The problem with the idea that there's ALWAYS a bad end of the bell curve is exactly why that idea of a one-size fits all approach, e.g., NO P/P in 1A, is one that "I'm gonna have to disagree with."  Similarly, while class by enrollment has ALWAYS been "the way," it can be a starting point, but can be, and has been, modified, without using a sledgehammer approach of ALL.  Frankly, if we have Success Factor, I'm not sure why we can't have reverse Success Factor ... i.e., provide for a team to move down when performance just isn't attainable or sustainable.  We already have it in part for teams that have been upwardly impacted by Success factor, but it could be broadened.  I think the biggest thing currently standing in the way of this is the potential "stigma," associated with moving down because so much has been ingrained in the enrollment classification and there's some school of thought that says, for example, if you are 3A, but having to compete at 2A, that you are "not a man."  I think the idea is misguided, but then again, I'm not the AD, principal, or players at the schools.  One solution to that idea is to provide the opportunity to drop, but let the school make the call on whether they want to move down or not.  We already do that on the other side and some programs have opted to stay up or move up.  It's not a lot, but the option still exists.

The main argument against that I keep hearing is that it would require more work in setting sectionals, but we already started down that path with Success Factor, then increased it with changing the stay/move down numbers ... now three times in the past decade or so ... and now introducing the rolling assessment periods.  In essence, it already is taking more time than it would just going by enrollment and, in a sense, most of the heavy lifting has already occurred and been [somewhat] hammered out with that task over the past decade or so.  I can also tell you, being a tech person, that there's easily a way to automate the assignment of sections/regions on the fly each season without a bunch of hand-wringing either ... especially with an all-in format ... that would easily allow for the continued idea of moving toward a performance-based model as opposed to a more artificial model based on enrollment perceptions or perceptions on the p/p aspect too.

One-size fits all is certainly expedient, but as you point out yourself, the world is not all +/- 1 standard deviation ... matter of fact we'll be discussing that in class today and talking about the use of technology to better address things that are outside of +/- 1 standard deviation.  With a little technology to help and a little creative thinking, it's really not all that hard to come up with a better system that better serves the sport, but probably more importantly the folks that put the time in on the field day in and day out: the coaches and the players.

 

[FarmerFran]

Get rid of the success factor. Nothing like punishing future kids for the hard work and success of those that came before them. If you don't like other teams having success, get better. 

[23andCounting]

1 hour ago, FarmerFran said:

Get rid of the success factor. Nothing like punishing future kids for the hard work and success of those that came before them. If you don't like other teams having success, get better. 

I don't mind the success factor. But I've been saying for years that it should be a 4-year cycle instead of two. Maybe 9 points to bump up. I'd like to see at least three successful seasons, maybe even four before a program gets the bump. There are SO many teams out there that are successful due to a two year run on talent. Then the less talented kids get bumped up to the higher class. Doesn't make sense. Been saying this since the inception. If the IHSAA would just sit down with me for an hour, I could fix some of their issues. 

[oldtimeqb]

Are there any P/P's in the bottom 32?  I would rather see 1A be the smallest 32, which might take alleviate some of the P/P issue.  I feel like during the Lutheran, Providence, and Covenant runs, they were all near the top of 1A by size - which would fit them in 2A with only smallest 32.  

I'm not sure about LCC, but @foxbat probably knows. 

Overall I think SF has been positive.  But I wonder if the Sheridan/Zachery run or the Pioneer/Kiser Mr. Football in 2018 happen if the current SF was in place.  

[23andCounting]

10 minutes ago, oldtimeqb said:

Are there any P/P's in the bottom 32?  I would rather see 1A be the smallest 32, which might take alleviate some of the P/P issue.  I feel like during the Lutheran, Providence, and Covenant runs, they were all near the top of 1A by size - which would fit them in 2A with only smallest 32.  

I'm not sure about LCC, but @foxbat probably knows. 

Overall I think SF has been positive.  But I wonder if the Sheridan/Zachery run or the Pioneer/Kiser Mr. Football in 2018 happen if the current SF was in place.  

That was another error on the part of the IHSAA. It should have been the highest and lowest class with 32 teams. Why on earth they choose to just split the biggest class in two is beyond me. Not sure there was much thought process when that that decision was made. 

[crimsonace1]

On 11/18/2025 at 5:59 PM, Frozen Tundra said:

Not quite understanding. If a team wins state in year 1, gets moved up due to enrollment, then wins regional in year 2 then that means they just have 2 points right? They wouldn’t get moved up again due to the success factor if their points were split between two classes, right?

If a team is a 3A team (due to success factor) and wins state in Year 1: 4 points
Enrollment moves them up to 3A ... they're still in 3A. They win state again: 8 points, not 4. Going to 4A the next year. 

If a team is in 2A and wins state: 4 points
Moves up to 3A due to enrollment and wins state again: 4 points. 

Basically, you need 6 points *IN YOUR CURRENT CLASS* to move up, or 3 points to stay up. 

[First_Backer_Inside]

How does the success factor work with someone who's enrollment goes down, but they are continuing to have success in their class?

An example would be Knox. I think they have accumulated 3 points in the last two years which would put them as successful in 3A, however, their enrollment might be low enough for 2A next year. Do they stay in 3A due to success or go down to 2A because of enrollment? I don't think they can get to 6 points, but what would happen if a team (Let's say they are in 3A like Konx) accumulated 6 points in a class they had enrollment for, and within two years the enrollment dropped but they had those 6 points. Would they go to 2A because of enrollment? Stay in 3A because of success but drop of enrollment? Or go to 4A due to success? Probably something that would rarely ever happen but would be possible.

[US31]

57 minutes ago, oldtimeqb said:

Are there any P/P's in the bottom 32?  I would rather see 1A be the smallest 32, which might take alleviate some of the P/P issue.  I feel like during the Lutheran, Providence, and Covenant runs, they were all near the top of 1A by size - which would fit them in 2A with only smallest 32.  

I'm not sure about LCC, but @foxbat probably knows. 

Overall I think SF has been positive.  But I wonder if the Sheridan/Zachery run or the Pioneer/Kiser Mr. Football in 2018 happen if the current SF was in place.  

I've said this many times...1A should be bottom 32, 6A Top 32.  Divide the rest evenly.  My post above was just about success factor.  I wouldn't be opposed to a rolling 3 year cycle instead of 2

[Indiana Fan]

36 minutes ago, US31 said:

I've said this many times...1A should be bottom 32, 6A Top 32.  Divide the rest evenly.  My post above was just about success factor.  I wouldn't be opposed to a rolling 3 year cycle instead of 2

I have always agreed and have hoped for this model as well. Works so much better and more evenly. I believe someone on here a little bit ago created the classes if this model was used. Top 32 6A and bottom 32 A.

[Frozen Tundra]

1 hour ago, crimsonace1 said:

If a team is a 3A team (due to success factor) and wins state in Year 1: 4 points
Enrollment moves them up to 3A ... they're still in 3A. They win state again: 8 points, not 4. Going to 4A the next year. 

If a team is in 2A and wins state: 4 points
Moves up to 3A due to enrollment and wins state again: 4 points. 

Basically, you need 6 points *IN YOUR CURRENT CLASS* to move up, or 3 points to stay up. 

That’s what I thought but I wanted to verify it. Thanks!

18 minutes ago, Indiana Fan said:

I have always agreed and have hoped for this model as well. Works so much better and more evenly. I believe someone on here a little bit ago created the classes if this model was used. Top 32 6A and bottom 32 A.

That was me!

[Frozen Tundra]

53 minutes ago, Indiana Fan said:

I have always agreed and have hoped for this model as well. Works so much better and more evenly. I believe someone on here a little bit ago created the classes if this model was used. Top 32 6A and bottom 32 A.

That post was from October 2023. It is on page 49 if you or anyone else is interested in checking it out again.

[kdets89]

2 hours ago, oldtimeqb said:

Are there any P/P's in the bottom 32?  I would rather see 1A be the smallest 32, which might take alleviate some of the P/P issue.  I feel like during the Lutheran, Providence, and Covenant runs, they were all near the top of 1A by size - which would fit them in 2A with only smallest 32.  

I'm not sure about LCC, but @foxbat probably knows. 

Lutheran has always been in the bottom 32.  Current enrollment is 278.

I believe LCC would also fit into the bottom 32, but will defer to that crowd.

I'll concede that neither would belong there.

Covenant was near the top of 1A in 2020 when they won, and are currently 2A by enrollment.

[foxbat]

9 hours ago, oldtimeqb said:

Are there any P/P's in the bottom 32?  I would rather see 1A be the smallest 32, which might take alleviate some of the P/P issue.  I feel like during the Lutheran, Providence, and Covenant runs, they were all near the top of 1A by size - which would fit them in 2A with only smallest 32.  

I'm not sure about LCC, but @foxbat probably knows. 

Overall I think SF has been positive.  But I wonder if the Sheridan/Zachery run or the Pioneer/Kiser Mr. Football in 2018 happen if the current SF was in place.  

LCC would not be bottom 32 if they were back in 1A.  Roughly 283 is the current bottom 32, but there's also the issue that there's a tie for two teams at 283 and Faith Christian is tournament eligible this year, so 281 is likely the cutoff for bottom 32.  LCC's currently sitting around 302 and younger classes look bigger than older classes, so likely trending upward if that continues.  Given that number, there will still be roughly 25 teams ahead of LCC when they return to 1A with regard to enrollment including folks like Carroll, Sheridan, South Adams, LaVille, and South Putnam.

Regarding Lutheran, they were always on the bottom half of 1A, including when they were bumped up and had their runs.  Lutheran's currently around 267 by last classification from IHSAA.  267 would put them in the bottom 32 of 1A should they return.  They would join other lower-32 p/p programs in 1A including Blackhawk Christian, Greenwood Christian Academy, and Bowman which is a charter school.  Faith Christian would also likely join that group once they are tournament eligible.

In general terms of records, none of those teams was a threat to the sanctity of 1A as a public school haven.  Respective records were: 

• Blackhawk Christian -- 0-10, but played a decently solid schedule
• Greenwood Christian -- 2-8, one win was over Faith Christian
• Bowman Academy -- 6-5
• Faith Christian -- 2-7

Regarding the Pioneer run, in rolling evaluation, Pioneer would have bumped up for 2018 having received a red ring in 2016 and a blue one in 2017.  I'd go out on a limb and say that, had Pioneer moved up to 2A in 2018, they would have likely made it to LOS.  The reasoning is that they beat Cass 44-0 in the regular season and Cass lost the sectional to Eastbrook by just 2 points.  Eastbrook then turned around and handily won the regional against Lapel and then squeaked by Bremen in semi.  They eventually lost to WeBo at LOS by a couple of TDs.  The Way Back Machine, I mean the GID Predictor, says Pioneer would have been a TD favorite to take 2A state in 2018 if they had been bumped up due to rolling evals.

 

[whiteshoes]

1 point (Sectional title) ought to keep you in the same class the following year.

[US31]

If we ever make 1A the bottom 32.....this reinforces my opinion that it should exclude P/P.

[WWFan]

2 hours ago, US31 said:

If we ever make 1A the bottom 32.....this reinforces my opinion that it should exclude P/P.

1A would be so terrible and watered down. I've never heard a 1A team complain about it so not sure who this really is for except people who only care about big boy football

[crimsonace1]

UPDATING THIS WITH SEMISTATE RESULTS (updates in bold). 

Of the schools currently "playing up"

Decatur Central: 1st year in 6A; will stay up through 2027 season if they win a *regional* next year
Heritage Hills: 1st year in 4A. Has 2 points. If they win a sectional in 2026, will remain in 4A in 2027. If they win *state* next year, they'll move up to 5A. 
Chatard: Back to 3A next year (1 point during 2 years in 4A)
East Central: Back to 4A next year (2 points during 2 years in 5A)
Cathedral: 1st year in 5A. Will stay in 5A through 2027 season with a semistate win in 2026. If not, will go back to 4A in 2027. 
LCC: 2nd year in 2A. Going back to 1A next year (1 point during 2 years in 2A)
New Pal: 1st year in 5A. Will stay up through 2027 season due to their semistate win. 
FW Snider: Back to 5A next year (0 points during 2 years in 6A)
Lutheran: Staying in 2A next year (3 points during 2 years), will need to win a regional next year to stay up in 2027. 

Other teams potentially going up/down
Adams Central: 2A champ last year; 2A regional this year. Going to 3A for 2026/27
Andrean: 2A regional last year. Will go up to 3A for 2026/27 with a state title this year. 
Bloomington South: 5A regional last year. Will not be moving up due to semistate loss. 
FW Luers: 3A semistate last year. Will move up to 4A for 2026/27 due to semistate title this year. 
Merrillville: 5A regional last year. Will move up to 6A for 2026/27 with a state title this year. 
South Adams: 1A regional last year. Will not be moving up due to semistate loss. 
South Putnam: 1A regional last year. Will move up to 2A for 2026/27 with a state title this year. 

[TheDoctor22]

5 hours ago, crimsonace1 said:

Chatard: Back to 3A next year (1 point during 2 years in 4A)

I heard from a credible source that Chatard is electing to stay in 4A despite not earning enough points. I didn’t realize that was an option but fully support as a selfish fan.

[HoopsCoach]

55 minutes ago, TheDoctor22 said:

I heard from a credible source that Chatard is electing to stay in 4A despite not earning enough points. I didn’t realize that was an option but fully support as a selfish fan.

It has been an option for teams to elect to play up, they just have to make it known prior to the alignment of classes.  The North Daviess boys basketball team did that a few years ago.  They won a state championship in 21-22 and returned all of their starters with a good chance to repeat for 22-23.  However, 22-23 was a new alignment cycle and they were going to be moved to 2A by enrollment.  They were not happy and felt that the IHSAA was taking away a very strong chance to win a second state championship because their enrollment really had not increased, but the shrinking of some other schools close to the 1A/2A split led to ND being in 2A.   Their path to a state championship in 2A would be much more difficult than 1A (Linton, Brownstown Central, Blackhawk Christian), so somewhat in protest of being required to move to 2A, they decided to go up a class to 3A.  They did end up winning a regional in 3A and lost in the first semi-state game during the 22-23 season, which was probably further than they would have advanced in 2A.  The choice was probably made just to save face and have the excuse of playing up in 3A as a reason why they didn’t win a second state championship.  If Chatard really chooses to stay up, that would be admirable.

[crimsonace1]

2 hours ago, TheDoctor22 said:

I heard from a credible source that Chatard is electing to stay in 4A despite not earning enough points. I didn’t realize that was an option but fully support as a selfish fan.

It's always been an option. Scecina did it for a few years when they first moved down to 1A in enrollment, because 2A was where their traditional rivals were. 

When Muncie Burris was in the midst of its volleyball dynasty, schools (most notably Providence) would elect to move up to 3A to avoid them. I think the IHSAA nipped that in the bud by requiring any school that elected to move up in one four-class sport (VB, BBB, GBB, BA, SB) to move up in all of them for a few years (that has since been rescinded). 

[foxbat]

5 hours ago, crimsonace1 said:

It's always been an option. Scecina did it for a few years when they first moved down to 1A in enrollment, because 2A was where their traditional rivals were. 

When Muncie Burris was in the midst of its volleyball dynasty, schools (most notably Providence) would elect to move up to 3A to avoid them. I think the IHSAA nipped that in the bud by requiring any school that elected to move up in one four-class sport (VB, BBB, GBB, BA, SB) to move up in all of them for a few years (that has since been rescinded). 

Mishawaka Marian was one of the first to do it.  I think they tried to move up from 1A to 3A, but IHSAA only allowed them a single class jump at the time although they currently reside in 3A by enrollment. 

I'm drawing a blank, but there was someone else, I want to say in 4A, that petitioned to move up, although I believe they have since moved back down.  Maybe Mishawaka HS?

[OldschoolFB]

On 11/19/2025 at 8:19 AM, 23andCounting said:

The rhetoric in Fort Wayne was that Blackhawk would come in and take over the sport. Wonders how long that's going to take. I guess they are showing a third straight year of improvement..........1-9, 1-8, 2-8. Lesson learned. Basketball domination has nothing to do with football domination. 

my thoughts are Blackhawk will take a while.  A few reasons:

1. Hoops took them a while but the. They had a coach who may in Big Ten who was committed and had several sons coming through.  He stayed and built it with real hoops and program knowledge. 
2. Many of the hoops athletes are not going to risking their hoops career on football.  Parents also very helicopterish and may not even allow it if they wanted to. 
3. You don’t just pick up football, it’s a hard sport and you have to have the correct mentality.  It’s help a shit load to be playing on pads long before 9th grade. 
4.  An advantage for hoops has been an “occasional” outside player transferring.  Not many are going to transfer to the storied 3 year history of a soft as butter school with coaches are still figuring things out.  
just my thoughts, I’m not saying I can’t be wrong but I’m prettt confident it will take at least a decade to even be competitive annually in 1A. 

[crimsonace1]

UPDATED WITH STATE FINALS RESULTS (neither team in the 4A game will be able to move up next year). 

Going up: 
Adams Central: 2A champ last year; regional this year. Going to 3A for 2026/27
Andrean: 2A regional last year, state title this year. Will go up to 3A for 2026/27. 
FW Luers: 3A semistate in 2025/26. Will move up to 4A for 2026/27
South Putnam: 1A regional last year, state title this year. Will move up to 2A for 2026/27 

Currently success-factored teams staying in their class:
Decatur Central: 1st year in 6A; will stay up through 2027 season if they win a *regional* next year
Cathedral: 1st year in 5A. Will stay in 5A through 2027 season with a semistate win in 2026. If not, will go back to 4A in 2027. 
New Pal: 1st year in 5A. Will stay up through 2027 season due to their state title (4 points). Will move up to 6A in 2027 with a *regional* win next year. 
Heritage Hills: 1st year in 4A. Has 2 points. If they win a sectional in 2026, will remain in 4A in 2027. If they win *state* next year, they'll move up to 5A. 
Lutheran: Staying in 2A next year (3 points during 2 years), will need to win a regional next year to stay up in 2027. 
Merrillville wasn't success factored, but it would've gone to 6A with a state title this year, but its loss last night will keep the Pirates in 5A. 

Teams going down
Chatard: Back to 3A next year (1 point during 2 years in 4A)
East Central: Back to 4A next year (2 points during 2 years in 5A)
LCC: Back to 1A next year (1 point during 2 years in 2A)
FW Snider: Back to 5A next year (0 points during 2 years in 6A)

[23andCounting]

So two teams bump up without a state title to show for it. Lol, only in Indiana.