Sagarin starting to come into focus

[Staxawax]

This is the time of year Jeff Sagarin’s rating formulas start showing accuracy. I find it hard to argue with 6A this week:

CLASS RANK	STATE RANK	TEAM	OVERALL RATING	SCHEDULE STRENGTH RANK		RECENT RATING   RANK		PREDICTOR RATING   RANK
1	1	Center Grove	111.62	84.83	12	113.89	1	110.94	1
2	3	Westfield	101.76	86.80	7	105.29	3	100.36	4
3	4	Brownsburg	100.35	87.28	6	103.52	4	99.13	5
4	5	Hamilton Southeastern	100.06	84.83	11	98.30	7	101.42	3
5	6	Merrillville	98.41	72.79	27	101.50	5	97.10	6
6	8	Carmel	95.95	85.11	10	95.63	8	96.17	7
7	11	Ben Davis	88.31	80.13	16	86.71	17	89.38	12
8	12	Warren Central	88.02	84.69	13	84.71	19	90.10	10
9	15	Lawrence North	86.83	81.32	15	86.72	16	86.82	13
10	18	Fishers	85.51	85.43	9	86.81	15	84.73	21
11	20	Carroll (Fort Wayne)	85.10	58.57	76	84.64	21	85.43	19
12	21	Columbus North	84.68	75.25	20	85.56	18	84.31	22
13	27	Franklin Central	80.81	90.39	1	78.86	28	81.86	27
14	29	Lawrence Central	80.19	86.45	8	78.49	30	81.12	29
15	31	Chesterton	78.92	73.43	26	77.02	36	79.87	32
16	33	Penn	78.51	71.15	30	78.83	29	78.36	34

 

[TigerFan20]

4A teams alive

1	7	Indianapolis Roncalli	97.13	74.99	21	99.60	6	96.02	8
2	13	East Central	87.69	60.36	68	89.68	10	86.60	14
3	22	Indianapolis Chatard	84.43	69.43	38	82.71	23	85.56	18
4	23	Evansville Memorial	83.70	61.87	60	83.01	22	84.16	24
5	24	Mooresville	82.86	67.46	41	77.77	33	86.39	15
6	25	Jasper	82.79	64.46	51	80.65	25	83.85	25
7	26	Mount Vernon (Fortville)	82.68	53.97	97	82.58	24	82.77	26
8	47	Northview	74.60	58.85	75	74.80	46	74.26	45
9	51	New Prairie	73.09	56.52	86	71.12	59	74.03	47
10	55	Lowell	72.01	55.76	92	76.29	39	69.86	64
11	57	Leo	71.84	45.44	157	73.20	51	70.83	60
12	63	Hobart	70.31	53.59	101	68.12	68	71.44	56
13	66	Lebanon	69.71	61.61	61	70.14	62	69.30	67
14	69	Martinsville	69.24	66.10	45	68.50	67	69.29	68
15	82	East Noble	64.30	47.91	138	61.64	90	65.71	73
16	84	Evansville Reitz	63.42	65.80	46	61.20	93	64.45	81
17	86	Northridge	63.13	56.64	85	65.63	76	61.61	90
18	90	Greenfield-Central	62.05	56.03	90	62.22	87	61.61	91
19	92	Mississinewa	60.56	32.22	246	61.98	88	59.57	94
20	97	NorthWood

[PHJIrish]

Honestly, there's no need for Sagarin once the playoffs begin.  On the field is the rating system now.

[Olympian06]

Just now, PHJIrish said:

Honestly, there's no need for Sagarin once the playoffs begin.  On the field is the rating system now.

It’s only showing that Sagarin is correct on what teams it had towards the top. Nobody is saying it wins games. 

[Irishman]

16 minutes ago, Staxawax said:

This is the time of year Jeff Sagarin’s rating formulas start showing accuracy. I find it hard to argue with 6A this week:

CLASS RANK	STATE RANK	TEAM	OVERALL RATING	SCHEDULE STRENGTH RANK		RECENT RATING   RANK		PREDICTOR RATING   RANK
1	1	Center Grove	111.62	84.83	12	113.89	1	110.94	1
2	3	Westfield	101.76	86.80	7	105.29	3	100.36	4
3	4	Brownsburg	100.35	87.28	6	103.52	4	99.13	5
4	5	Hamilton Southeastern	100.06	84.83	11	98.30	7	101.42	3
5	6	Merrillville	98.41	72.79	27	101.50	5	97.10	6
6	8	Carmel	95.95	85.11	10	95.63	8	96.17	7
7	11	Ben Davis	88.31	80.13	16	86.71	17	89.38	12
8	12	Warren Central	88.02	84.69	13	84.71	19	90.10	10
9	15	Lawrence North	86.83	81.32	15	86.72	16	86.82	13
10	18	Fishers	85.51	85.43	9	86.81	15	84.73	21
11	20	Carroll (Fort Wayne)	85.10	58.57	76	84.64	21	85.43	19
12	21	Columbus North	84.68	75.25	20	85.56	18	84.31	22
13	27	Franklin Central	80.81	90.39	1	78.86	28	81.86	27
14	29	Lawrence Central	80.19	86.45	8	78.49	30	81.12	29
15	31	Chesterton	78.92	73.43	26	77.02	36	79.87	32
16	33	Penn	78.51	71.15	30	78.83	29	78.36	34

 

Did folks in the Indy area see that Brownsburg was that much better than Carmel this season? Have to admit, the score is eye opening to me. Congrats to them for a solid win. 

[Staxawax]

20 minutes ago, Irishman said:

Did folks in the Indy area see that Brownsburg was that much better than Carmel this season? Have to admit, the score is eye opening to me. Congrats to them for a solid win. 

I think Sagarin showing Brownsburg 7 points better (5 + 2 for home team) is accurate. No one can predict turnover margin which was why the score was lopsided. 

[temptation]

47 minutes ago, Irishman said:

Did folks in the Indy area see that Brownsburg was that much better than Carmel this season? Have to admit, the score is eye opening to me. Congrats to them for a solid win. 

Program changing win for Brownsburg but that all disappears if they no show on Friday night. 

[Staxawax]

38 minutes ago, temptation said:

Program changing win for Brownsburg but that all disappears if they no show on Friday night. 

Wow. You just can’t let go. Will you make the same statement if they play CG in the semi-state?

[Plymouthfan91]

Of course the ratings come into focus.  They change each week.  If teams win they move up.  What did they look like before the sectional started?

[Grover]

4 hours ago, Irishman said:

Did folks in the Indy area see that Brownsburg was that much better than Carmel this season? 

I did not but I was surprised at how much trouble Carmel had the week before with Avon.

[TigerFan20]

1 hour ago, Plymouthfan91 said:

Of course the ratings come into focus.  They change each week.  If teams win they move up.  What did they look like before the sectional started?

SIAC was like ranked in the low 90+, although it’s a closed conference until sectionals come

Edited November 7, 2021 by TigerFan20

[temptation]

4 hours ago, Staxawax said:

Wow. You just can’t let go. Will you make the same statement if they play CG in the semi-state?

Why so bitter?  Just pointing out a fact.  They took a big step forward last night and have put BD in their rear view mirror in the regular season recently.

A win over BD is now EXPECTED at Brownsburg, which justifies my original statement.  A loss next Friday is a step back.

They would be playing with house money in a potential semi state contest vs CG.  No one expects them to win that game.

Take your extra hour and sleep in tomorrow morning grandpa.

Edited November 7, 2021 by temptation

[BTF]

SAC rankings are still out of whack. 

[Bobref]

32 minutes ago, BTF said:

SAC rankings are still out of whack. 

Not surprising. The 5 best teams in that conference have played a total of 2 games against non-conference opponents. Not much for Sagarin’s algorithms to latch on to.

[BTF]

1 hour ago, Bobref said:

Not surprising. The 5 best teams in that conference have played a total of 2 games against non-conference opponents. Not much for Sagarin’s algorithms to latch on to.

Yes, no fault of Sagarin. 

[WalterSobchak]

17 hours ago, Plymouthfan91 said:

Of course the ratings come into focus.  They change each week.  If teams win they move up.  What did they look like before the sectional started?

Sagarin is decent for football. Spot on usually by end of season for basketball. 

[Bobref]

1 hour ago, WalterSobchak said:

Sagarin is decent for football. Spot on usually by end of season for basketball. 

You would expect that. More games = more data for the algorithms to digest.

[WalterSobchak]

26 minutes ago, Bobref said:

You would expect that. More games = more data for the algorithms to digest.

Yes. .I remember one year Hagerstown was predicted to win a game by 3 TDs. They lost by 4-6 TDs. 

[PHJIrish]

All ratings systems are fun to look at and try to digest.  And they are fine for starting a conversation.

[BTF]

1 hour ago, PHJIrish said:

All ratings systems are fun to look at and try to digest.  And they are fine for starting a conversation.

It's the only ranking that makes any kind of sense. Sure, it has it's flaws, but it's way more accurate than the AP. 

[PHJIrish]

2 hours ago, BTF said:

It's the only ranking that makes any kind of sense. Sure, it has it's flaws, but it's way more accurate than the AP. 

Someone has to input information to the computer, so it's not infallible.  I enjoy reading the rankings, but I don't take them too seriously, especially this time of the year.

[FastpacedO]

11 hours ago, BTF said:

It's the only ranking that makes any kind of sense. Sure, it has it's flaws, but it's way more accurate than the AP. 

I actually like Calpreps rankings on making sense. Only because Sagarin does not include out of state opponents and Calpreps does. Calpreps has a pretty nifty rankings you can also look at trends with it.

[Sports Freak20]

On 11/6/2021 at 5:24 PM, Irishman said:

Did folks in the Indy area see that Brownsburg was that much better than Carmel this season? Have to admit, the score is eye opening to me. Congrats to them for a solid win. 

I honestly knew how tough Brownsburg's defense is, particularly up front and I thought they would win that game....but not by 3 TD's.