Staxawax Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 This is the time of year Jeff Sagarin’s rating formulas start showing accuracy. I find it hard to argue with 6A this week: CLASS RANK STATE RANK TEAM OVERALL RATING SCHEDULE STRENGTH RANK RECENT RATING RANK PREDICTOR RATING RANK 1 1 Center Grove 111.62 84.83 12 113.89 1 110.94 1 2 3 Westfield 101.76 86.80 7 105.29 3 100.36 4 3 4 Brownsburg 100.35 87.28 6 103.52 4 99.13 5 4 5 Hamilton Southeastern 100.06 84.83 11 98.30 7 101.42 3 5 6 Merrillville 98.41 72.79 27 101.50 5 97.10 6 6 8 Carmel 95.95 85.11 10 95.63 8 96.17 7 7 11 Ben Davis 88.31 80.13 16 86.71 17 89.38 12 8 12 Warren Central 88.02 84.69 13 84.71 19 90.10 10 9 15 Lawrence North 86.83 81.32 15 86.72 16 86.82 13 10 18 Fishers 85.51 85.43 9 86.81 15 84.73 21 11 20 Carroll (Fort Wayne) 85.10 58.57 76 84.64 21 85.43 19 12 21 Columbus North 84.68 75.25 20 85.56 18 84.31 22 13 27 Franklin Central 80.81 90.39 1 78.86 28 81.86 27 14 29 Lawrence Central 80.19 86.45 8 78.49 30 81.12 29 15 31 Chesterton 78.92 73.43 26 77.02 36 79.87 32 16 33 Penn 78.51 71.15 30 78.83 29 78.36 34 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerFan20 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 4A teams alive 1 7 Indianapolis Roncalli 97.13 74.99 21 99.60 6 96.02 8 2 13 East Central 87.69 60.36 68 89.68 10 86.60 14 3 22 Indianapolis Chatard 84.43 69.43 38 82.71 23 85.56 18 4 23 Evansville Memorial 83.70 61.87 60 83.01 22 84.16 24 5 24 Mooresville 82.86 67.46 41 77.77 33 86.39 15 6 25 Jasper 82.79 64.46 51 80.65 25 83.85 25 7 26 Mount Vernon (Fortville) 82.68 53.97 97 82.58 24 82.77 26 8 47 Northview 74.60 58.85 75 74.80 46 74.26 45 9 51 New Prairie 73.09 56.52 86 71.12 59 74.03 47 10 55 Lowell 72.01 55.76 92 76.29 39 69.86 64 11 57 Leo 71.84 45.44 157 73.20 51 70.83 60 12 63 Hobart 70.31 53.59 101 68.12 68 71.44 56 13 66 Lebanon 69.71 61.61 61 70.14 62 69.30 67 14 69 Martinsville 69.24 66.10 45 68.50 67 69.29 68 15 82 East Noble 64.30 47.91 138 61.64 90 65.71 73 16 84 Evansville Reitz 63.42 65.80 46 61.20 93 64.45 81 17 86 Northridge 63.13 56.64 85 65.63 76 61.61 90 18 90 Greenfield-Central 62.05 56.03 90 62.22 87 61.61 91 19 92 Mississinewa 60.56 32.22 246 61.98 88 59.57 94 20 97 NorthWood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PHJIrish Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 Honestly, there's no need for Sagarin once the playoffs begin. On the field is the rating system now. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olympian06 Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 Just now, PHJIrish said: Honestly, there's no need for Sagarin once the playoffs begin. On the field is the rating system now. It’s only showing that Sagarin is correct on what teams it had towards the top. Nobody is saying it wins games. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishman Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 16 minutes ago, Staxawax said: This is the time of year Jeff Sagarin’s rating formulas start showing accuracy. I find it hard to argue with 6A this week: CLASS RANK STATE RANK TEAM OVERALL RATING SCHEDULE STRENGTH RANK RECENT RATING RANK PREDICTOR RATING RANK 1 1 Center Grove 111.62 84.83 12 113.89 1 110.94 1 2 3 Westfield 101.76 86.80 7 105.29 3 100.36 4 3 4 Brownsburg 100.35 87.28 6 103.52 4 99.13 5 4 5 Hamilton Southeastern 100.06 84.83 11 98.30 7 101.42 3 5 6 Merrillville 98.41 72.79 27 101.50 5 97.10 6 6 8 Carmel 95.95 85.11 10 95.63 8 96.17 7 7 11 Ben Davis 88.31 80.13 16 86.71 17 89.38 12 8 12 Warren Central 88.02 84.69 13 84.71 19 90.10 10 9 15 Lawrence North 86.83 81.32 15 86.72 16 86.82 13 10 18 Fishers 85.51 85.43 9 86.81 15 84.73 21 11 20 Carroll (Fort Wayne) 85.10 58.57 76 84.64 21 85.43 19 12 21 Columbus North 84.68 75.25 20 85.56 18 84.31 22 13 27 Franklin Central 80.81 90.39 1 78.86 28 81.86 27 14 29 Lawrence Central 80.19 86.45 8 78.49 30 81.12 29 15 31 Chesterton 78.92 73.43 26 77.02 36 79.87 32 16 33 Penn 78.51 71.15 30 78.83 29 78.36 34 Did folks in the Indy area see that Brownsburg was that much better than Carmel this season? Have to admit, the score is eye opening to me. Congrats to them for a solid win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staxawax Posted November 6, 2021 Author Share Posted November 6, 2021 20 minutes ago, Irishman said: Did folks in the Indy area see that Brownsburg was that much better than Carmel this season? Have to admit, the score is eye opening to me. Congrats to them for a solid win. I think Sagarin showing Brownsburg 7 points better (5 + 2 for home team) is accurate. No one can predict turnover margin which was why the score was lopsided. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
temptation Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 47 minutes ago, Irishman said: Did folks in the Indy area see that Brownsburg was that much better than Carmel this season? Have to admit, the score is eye opening to me. Congrats to them for a solid win. Program changing win for Brownsburg but that all disappears if they no show on Friday night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staxawax Posted November 6, 2021 Author Share Posted November 6, 2021 38 minutes ago, temptation said: Program changing win for Brownsburg but that all disappears if they no show on Friday night. Wow. You just can’t let go. Will you make the same statement if they play CG in the semi-state? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plymouthfan91 Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 Of course the ratings come into focus. They change each week. If teams win they move up. What did they look like before the sectional started? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grover Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 4 hours ago, Irishman said: Did folks in the Indy area see that Brownsburg was that much better than Carmel this season? I did not but I was surprised at how much trouble Carmel had the week before with Avon. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerFan20 Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Plymouthfan91 said: Of course the ratings come into focus. They change each week. If teams win they move up. What did they look like before the sectional started? SIAC was like ranked in the low 90+, although it’s a closed conference until sectionals come Edited November 7, 2021 by TigerFan20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
temptation Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 (edited) 4 hours ago, Staxawax said: Wow. You just can’t let go. Will you make the same statement if they play CG in the semi-state? Why so bitter? Just pointing out a fact. They took a big step forward last night and have put BD in their rear view mirror in the regular season recently. A win over BD is now EXPECTED at Brownsburg, which justifies my original statement. A loss next Friday is a step back. They would be playing with house money in a potential semi state contest vs CG. No one expects them to win that game. Take your extra hour and sleep in tomorrow morning grandpa. Edited November 7, 2021 by temptation 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTF Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 SAC rankings are still out of whack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobref Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 32 minutes ago, BTF said: SAC rankings are still out of whack. Not surprising. The 5 best teams in that conference have played a total of 2 games against non-conference opponents. Not much for Sagarin’s algorithms to latch on to. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTF Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Bobref said: Not surprising. The 5 best teams in that conference have played a total of 2 games against non-conference opponents. Not much for Sagarin’s algorithms to latch on to. Yes, no fault of Sagarin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WalterSobchak Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 17 hours ago, Plymouthfan91 said: Of course the ratings come into focus. They change each week. If teams win they move up. What did they look like before the sectional started? Sagarin is decent for football. Spot on usually by end of season for basketball. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobref Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 1 hour ago, WalterSobchak said: Sagarin is decent for football. Spot on usually by end of season for basketball. You would expect that. More games = more data for the algorithms to digest. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WalterSobchak Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 26 minutes ago, Bobref said: You would expect that. More games = more data for the algorithms to digest. Yes. .I remember one year Hagerstown was predicted to win a game by 3 TDs. They lost by 4-6 TDs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PHJIrish Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 All ratings systems are fun to look at and try to digest. And they are fine for starting a conversation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTF Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 1 hour ago, PHJIrish said: All ratings systems are fun to look at and try to digest. And they are fine for starting a conversation. It's the only ranking that makes any kind of sense. Sure, it has it's flaws, but it's way more accurate than the AP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PHJIrish Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 2 hours ago, BTF said: It's the only ranking that makes any kind of sense. Sure, it has it's flaws, but it's way more accurate than the AP. Someone has to input information to the computer, so it's not infallible. I enjoy reading the rankings, but I don't take them too seriously, especially this time of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FastpacedO Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 11 hours ago, BTF said: It's the only ranking that makes any kind of sense. Sure, it has it's flaws, but it's way more accurate than the AP. I actually like Calpreps rankings on making sense. Only because Sagarin does not include out of state opponents and Calpreps does. Calpreps has a pretty nifty rankings you can also look at trends with it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Freak20 Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 On 11/6/2021 at 5:24 PM, Irishman said: Did folks in the Indy area see that Brownsburg was that much better than Carmel this season? Have to admit, the score is eye opening to me. Congrats to them for a solid win. I honestly knew how tough Brownsburg's defense is, particularly up front and I thought they would win that game....but not by 3 TD's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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