Roncalli vs Shortridge and other clearly lopsided sectional games

[Footballking16]

22 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

I am not disagreeing with you in 2019...if you say CG was top 10, ok. All I am saying, that may not be the case the year prior or after, depending on how the other 31 teams did in 6A those seasons.  Assuming CG can maintain an in-state difficult schedule for years to come, that will help using your formula.

That is true. Sagarin is different each and every year.

For point of reference this year, 1-7 Avon who has played the toughest schedule in the state sits just outside the top 16 at 18. Have an outside chance of playing their way in Friday. 

[Bash Riprock]

1 minute ago, Footballking16 said:

That is true. Sagarin is different each and every year.

For point of reference this year, 1-7 Avon who has played the toughest schedule in the state sits just outside the top 16 at 18. Have an outside chance of playing their way in Friday. 

interesting data....

With Sagarin, certainly helps to be in a strong conference with quality non-conference games.  May get tougher for independents...

[Footballking16]

Just now, Bash Riprock said:

interesting data....

With Sagarin, certainly helps to be in a strong conference with quality non-conference games.  May get tougher for independents...

I don't think Sagarin would ever be used for an Indiana qualifying format because it doesn't include Out of State opponents. But there are rating systems very similar to Sagarin; Massey, Calpreps, Harbin, etc.....that all factor out of state competition. 

[Bonecrusher]

23 hours ago, foxbat said:

Some of those 10-team districts in Texas can have your season over before you even get to the halfway point.  6-4 could mean staying at home come playoffs ... even 7-3.

 

You are correct sir.  "Districts of doom".  You probably called them that when you were down here?

[gonzoron]

38 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

I don't think Sagarin would ever be used for an Indiana qualifying format because it doesn't include Out of State opponents.

Only a very small percentage of Indiana teams play out of state schools, no need to cater to those.

[Footballking16]

5 minutes ago, gonzoron said:

Only a very small percentage of Indiana teams play out of state schools, no need to cater to those.

If you can use Sagarin for Indiana teams you can certainly use CalPreps or Massey. In fact, they are already out there.

https://masseyratings.com/hsf/in/ratings

http://calpreps.com/2022/ratings/Indiana_all.htm

Edited October 11, 2022 by Footballking16

[Footballking16]

23 hours ago, foxbat said:

Some of those 10-team districts in Texas can have your season over before you even get to the halfway point.  6-4 could mean staying at home come playoffs ... even 7-3

What percentage of Texas teams qualify for the postseason? I don't see a scenario where a 6-4 or 7-3 team is left out of the playoffs in Indiana under a format that cuts the field in half unless it's a 5A or 6A school playing in a largely dominated small class conference. 

[Komets2727]

2 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

I've only been tracking what a playoff qualifying format using Sagarin would look like since 2015 so I do not have the end of regular season Sagarin ratings for that year, just the final results that Sagarin has archived. Understanding how Sagarin works, beating 255 West Noble and 154 Heritage for Luers first and second wins in the postseason likely wouldn't have been enough to propel Luers from outside the top 32 all the way up to #23. In fact, it probably hurt Luers overall Sagarin ranking if anything. Although I can't say with 100% conviction, I'm 99.9% positive that 0-9 Luers finished in the top half of Sagarin.

Now, since I've been tracking this since 2015, I can say with 100% certainty that Luers has made the field every year in a hypothetical format that effectively cuts the field in half and that includes the 2019 team that finished 2-7 and lost in the sectional semi-finals and the 2020 team that finished 3-6 and lost in the state finals. 

Go back a couple years ago to Luers in 2020. 3-6 regular season, bad losses to Concordia and pretty much every other team in the SAC including a bad North Side squad, struggled with Northrop and Wayne, they were bad yet come playoff time they went to the state title game and lost to Western Boone 36-35 in a game that Luers absolutely gave away. They weren’t anywhere close to the top 15 based on any computer or sagarin rating. Not hard to do the research…

[Footballking16]

1 minute ago, Komets2727 said:

Go back a couple years ago to Luers in 2020. 3-6 regular season, bad losses to Concordia and pretty much every other team in the SAC including a bad North Side squad, struggled with Northrop and Wayne, they were bad yet come playoff time they went to the state title game and lost to Western Boone 36-35 in a game that Luers absolutely gave away. They weren’t anywhere close to the top 15 based on any computer or sagarin rating. Not hard to do the research…

The 2020 Luers team that went 3-6 in the regular season would have made any playoff format that effectively cut 2A in half from 64 to 32 teams at the conclusion of the regular season. Acting like a 3-6 Luers team wasn't a top 32 2A Sagarin team shows your ignorance on how these ratings work.

Next. 

[foxbat]

25 minutes ago, Bonecrusher said:

You are correct sir.  "Districts of doom".  You probably called them that when you were down here?

Yep!  Kind of like the Sectional of Death up this way.

I was in one of those 10-team districts that beat the cr*p out of each other trying to get one of those coveted spots and then getting wiped out in area.  They finally got us in an 8-team district recently and split the schools in our school district across two football districts.  If I'm not mistaken, the new alignment means that there are now no more than nine teams in a 6A football district. 

[foxbat]

17 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

What percentage of Texas teams qualify for the postseason? I don't see a scenario where a 6-4 or 7-3 team is left out of the playoffs in Indiana under a format that cuts the field in half unless it's a 5A or 6A school playing in a largely dominated small class conference. 

Texas is organized by districts as opposed to conferences.  Districts have ranged from six to ten teams, but it looks like recently the 6A class seems to have dropped to nine teams max.  The way that Texas determines qualifiers is that, in each district, the top four teams are selected for post season.  It works to be about 50% in post-season.  With 10 teams playing 10 games, you could conceivably have a district where the top four teams in a district are 10-0, 9-1, 8-2, and 7-3.  You could also see, in some of those districts, 10-0, 8-2, 8-2, and 8-2.  That leaves 7-3 on the outside looking in come post-season. 

[attheendoftheday]

I like the current "all-in" format.  Here's a thought no one has brought up yet.  If the 1-8 team and the 0-9 team draw each other in round 1, one of them will then get an 11th game which will be a blowout loss more than likely, but a playoff win is a playoff win.  In a program rebuild this would be a critical step in the right direction for some teams as sad as it sounds.

Example:  Sectional 36 if Elwood drew Blackford this year, dozens and dozens of people would come out to see the rematch of the 13-6 final score game earlier this season. : )

[Footballking16]

2 minutes ago, attheendoftheday said:

I like the current "all-in" format.  Here's a thought no one has brought up yet.  If the 1-8 team and the 0-9 team draw each other in round 1, one of them will then get an 11th game which will be a blowout loss more than likely, but a playoff win is a playoff win.  In a program rebuild this would be a critical step in the right direction for some teams as sad as it sounds.

Example:  Sectional 36 if Elwood drew Blackford this year, dozens and dozens of people would come out to see the rematch of the 13-6 final score game earlier this season. : )

How does that enhance Indiana high school football? Two teams who are a combined 1-17 playing each other while two teams who are undefeated playing in the same round doesn't sit right with me nor should it with anybody else. It's silly. It doesn't happen anywhere but Indiana.

[attheendoftheday]

Whether the 2 best teams play in round 1 or in the sectional championship game, it should still be a great game right?  Still going to be a winner and a loser?  Still have lots of paying customers?  It's not that big of a deal to play round 1 as opposed to round 2/3.  How many hs football shirts do you see that say "sectional finalist" 2019?

[Footballking16]

3 minutes ago, attheendoftheday said:

Whether the 2 best teams play in round 1 or in the sectional championship game, it should still be a great game right?  Still going to be a winner and a loser?  Still have lots of paying customers?  It's not that big of a deal to play round 1 as opposed to round 2/3.  How many hs football shirts do you see that say "sectional finalist" 2019?

Then why play the regular season?

[oldtimeqb]

Texas (UIL) calls it the Playoff Bracket and State Championship. 

Repeat it with me: It's the IHSAA Tournament, not Playoffs.  And the game played in Lucas Oil is the State Final, not the Championship Game.  The people on Meridian St. are very careful with their wording.  

 

 

[Tippy]

39 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

How does that enhance Indiana high school football? Two teams who are a combined 1-17 playing each other while two teams who are undefeated playing in the same round doesn't sit right with me nor should it with anybody else. It's silly. It doesn't happen anywhere but Indiana.

You could have two 8-0 teams playing for the sectional championship and still have a blowout game.  In 1988 Sheridan won the sectional final 53-6, and they were playing the second best team in that sectional.  

 

LCC 2011

Sectional 1st round 47-6

                2nd round 56-6

                 Final 69-8

 

In 1988 Sectional 2nd round

Delphi 8-1 vs Seeger 7-1 Seeger got the bye and had two weeks to get ready for Delphi.  There was a big crowd at Delphi and everyone thought it was going to be a good game.  Delphi won 64-12.  You can do whatever you want, but its not going to stop blowout games.  You never know what the score might be.

[Komets2727]

On 10/10/2022 at 9:17 PM, Footballking16 said:

Oh really? Show me a 2-7 or 3-6 Luers team that finished outside the top half of Sagarin in their respective class. 
 

I’ll save you the time, it hasn’t happened.

4-4 Luers is currently ranked 10th in Sagarin.

Maybe you ought to go look at another thread started by someone where they did the research and showed at least 15-20 sectional champions that wouldn’t have qualified via Sagarin, and additionally multiple teams that went further into the playoffs that wouldn’t have qualified even state champions… this list includes Luers…

Edited October 12, 2022 by Komets2727

[scarab527]

26 minutes ago, Komets2727 said:

Maybe you ought to go look at another thread started by someone where they did the research and showed at least 15-20 sectional champions that wouldn’t have qualified via Sagarin, and additionally multiple teams that went further into the playoffs that wouldn’t have qualified even state champions… this list includes Luers…

@Bobref should take a look as well.

A lot of guys acting smug on this thread only to be proven spectacularly wrong…

[Footballking16]

1 hour ago, Komets2727 said:

Maybe you ought to go look at another thread started by someone where they did the research and showed at least 15-20 sectional champions that wouldn’t have qualified via Sagarin, and additionally multiple teams that went further into the playoffs that wouldn’t have qualified even state champions… this list includes Luers…

Link?

Luers has never won a state championship in which they were outside the top 32 of their respective class at the conclusion of the regular season. Not once.

[Tippy]

Lafayette Jeff Football 1993 (4-7 record)

8 Harrison (WL) 2

14 Logansport 22

12 Kokomo 46

12 Anderson 41

0 Marion 21

17 Muncie Central 21

7 Richmond 21

16 New Castle 8

Sectional

7 Kokomo 6

28 Noblesville 21

6 Huntington North 7 (Jeff went for 2 and didn't get it or they might have won the sectional after going 2-6 during the regular season.  Jeff held Kokomo to 6 points after they scored 46 on Jeff in week 3.

[Komets2727]

3 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

Link?

Luers has never won a state championship in which they were outside the top 32 of their respective class at the conclusion of the regular season. Not once.

My bad, they were a state runner up… Keep trying though, and yes, that year they were outside the top 32

[Komets2727]

4 hours ago, scarab527 said:

@Bobref should take a look as well.

A lot of guys acting smug on this thread only to be proven spectacularly wrong…

Yes, smugness by some of the “all knowing” sets some back to the caveman days… You give them facts and they ignore and stick with their “argument” 

[Footballking16]

4 minutes ago, Komets2727 said:

Yes, smugness by some of the “all knowing” sets some back to the caveman days… You give them facts and they ignore and stick with their “argument” 

Still waiting for that Luers team that won state despite being a bottom half Sagarin rated team? Been 3 days now.

And the fact that you have to go back 26 years to find the one team to go on a Cinderella run as a justification for the all-in (and it was Luers of all teams) just goes to show you have no leg to stand on. 

[Komets2727]

4 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Still waiting for that Luers team that won state despite being a bottom half Sagarin rated team? Been 3 days now.

And the fact that you have to go back 26 years to find the one team to go on a Cinderella run as a justification for the all-in (and it was Luers of all teams) just goes to show you have no leg to stand on. 

Go read the topic started by Stoner which clearly shows that 31 sectional champions in 15 years were ranked outside the top 32 that would not have qualified using sagarin ratings. This includes Luers who were state runners up. Is reading comprehension a problem for you? Not sure what you are arguing about… The stats are right in front of you