Sectional 32 - 2024

[Sidelined56]

This will never happen.... BUT, what if the IHSAA assigned the sectionals & schedules and then the teams within those sectional had to play each other for 7 of their 9 games and then the other games were filled with outside games. To me, this is the only logical way to assign seeding for each sectional. 

Like I stated, this will never happen because football scheduling is a nightmare as it is. Especially with the SIAC being a closed conference. 

Thoughts? 

[tango]

14 minutes ago, Sidelined56 said:

This will never happen.... BUT, what if the IHSAA assigned the sectionals & schedules and then the teams within those sectional had to play each other for 7 of their 9 games and then the other games were filled with outside games. To me, this is the only logical way to assign seeding for each sectional. 

Like I stated, this will never happen because football scheduling is a nightmare as it is. Especially with the SIAC being a closed conference. 

Thoughts? 

I would not be in favor of that at all. We just spent 5 years in Sectional 24, which has been SIAC round 2. Being in Sectional 32 with mostly non-SIAC schools is something I've looked forward to since our season ended to East Central last November, even though the new Sectional 32 is going to be much tougher than Sectional 24. I also love the anticipation of the draw and the unknown of playing teams like HH & GS. 

Edited October 9, 2024 by tango

[JQWL]

1 hour ago, Sidelined56 said:

This will never happen.... BUT, what if the IHSAA assigned the sectionals & schedules and then the teams within those sectional had to play each other for 7 of their 9 games and then the other games were filled with outside games. To me, this is the only logical way to assign seeding for each sectional. 

Like I stated, this will never happen because football scheduling is a nightmare as it is. Especially with the SIAC being a closed conference. 

Thoughts? 

To do something like this, you'd have to do away with conference affiliations for football, which would be fine, but you might lose some of those rivalry games that can be big money gates for schools.

[btownqbcoach1]

1 hour ago, Sidelined56 said:

This will never happen.... BUT, what if the IHSAA assigned the sectionals & schedules and then the teams within those sectional had to play each other for 7 of their 9 games and then the other games were filled with outside games. To me, this is the only logical way to assign seeding for each sectional. 

Like I stated, this will never happen because football scheduling is a nightmare as it is. Especially with the SIAC being a closed conference. 

Thoughts? 

I don't understand why the Sagarin can't be used to seed the top 2 teams/all 8 teams. 

By week 9, it's pretty solid data. 

I have no interest in district ball like OH and KY play. 

[Titan32]

8 minutes ago, btownqbcoach1 said:

I don't understand why the Sagarin can't be used to seed the top 2 teams/all 8 teams. 

By week 9, it's pretty solid data. 

I have no interest in district ball like OH and KY play. 

I totally agree...it's one small tweak that kills 80% of the complaints with "all in".  Sure there are blowout games either way...but show me a team that doesn't want to play one more game blowout or not.

[tango]

28 minutes ago, btownqbcoach1 said:

I don't understand why the Sagarin can't be used to seed the top 2 teams/all 8 teams. 

By week 9, it's pretty solid data. 

I have no interest in district ball like OH and KY play. 

I don't think the numbers are solid enough to be the exclusive source for seeding state-wide. I question whether the Sagarin numbers for any SIAC team are truly accurate. None of the SIAC teams "connect" with any other teams outside of the SIAC until Wk.10, and even then 5 of the 10 are in the same Sectional (24). Last year our first game against a non-SIAC team was the Regional against East Central. 

[HereComesTheBoom]

Speaking of Sagarin - I'm not sure how all of these are calculated but here they are currently for Sectional 32.  I am assuming after the 10/4 games. 

SECTIONAL 32
SECT. RANK	STATE RANK	TEAM	OVERALL RATING	SCHEDULE STRENGTH RANK		RECENT RATING   RANK		PREDICTOR RATING   RANK
1	6	Heritage Hills	91.77	62.33	73	92.91	8	90.68	5
2	22	Evansville Memorial	82.59	57.90	105	81.24	26	80.92	28
3	42	Evansville Mater Dei	75.66	61.42	79	72.84	51	76.32	37
4	44	Gibson Southern	75.29	65.53	48	68.43	64	77.27	35
5	52	Southridge	72.92	52.74	145	68.59	63	75.88	39
6	127	Vincennes Lincoln	58.12	59.31	96	55.76	125	59.48	117
7	141	Mount Vernon (Posey)	55.42	55.71	126	46.55	158	56.56	134
8	254	Princeton	27.83	51.57	154	16.22	271	28.62	238

[TommyTwoTimes]

38 minutes ago, HereComesTheBoom said:

Speaking of Sagarin - I'm not sure how all of these are calculated but here they are currently for Sectional 32.  I am assuming after the 10/4 games. 

SECTIONAL 32
SECT. RANK	STATE RANK	TEAM	OVERALL RATING	SCHEDULE STRENGTH RANK		RECENT RATING   RANK		PREDICTOR RATING   RANK
1	6	Heritage Hills	91.77	62.33	73	92.91	8	90.68	5
2	22	Evansville Memorial	82.59	57.90	105	81.24	26	80.92	28
3	42	Evansville Mater Dei	75.66	61.42	79	72.84	51	76.32	37
4	44	Gibson Southern	75.29	65.53	48	68.43	64	77.27	35
5	52	Southridge	72.92	52.74	145	68.59	63	75.88	39
6	127	Vincennes Lincoln	58.12	59.31	96	55.76	125	59.48	117
7	141	Mount Vernon (Posey)	55.42	55.71	126	46.55	158	56.56	134
8	254	Princeton	27.83	51.57	154	16.22	271	28.62	238

Looks pretty spot on to me with one toss up... Not sure about Mater Dei over Gibson Southern. 🙂  

Edited October 9, 2024 by TommyTwoTimes

[tango]

27 minutes ago, TommyTwoTimes said:

Looks pretty spot on to me with one toss up... Not sure about Mater Dei over Gibson Southern. 🙂  

You think HH is 10 points better than Memorial on a neutral field? 

PROJECT A MATCHUP
regular season (neutral field)
[2024] Heritage Hills (Lincoln City, IN) 24 (53%), [2024] Reitz Memorial (Evansville, IN) 23 (47%)
playoffs (neutral field)
[2024] Reitz Memorial (Evansville, IN) 27 (62%), [2024] Heritage Hills (Lincoln City, IN) 21 (38%)

[TommyTwoTimes]

21 minutes ago, tango said:

You think HH is 10 points better than Memorial on a neutral field? 

PROJECT A MATCHUP
regular season (neutral field)
[2024] Heritage Hills (Lincoln City, IN) 24 (53%), [2024] Reitz Memorial (Evansville, IN) 23 (47%)
playoffs (neutral field)
[2024] Reitz Memorial (Evansville, IN) 27 (62%), [2024] Heritage Hills (Lincoln City, IN) 21 (38%)

10 points?  I don't know. Honestly, I posted that with tongue in cheek.  Obviously the main toss up on that list is Heritage Hills and Memorial. There's no common opponents to make any kind of real prediction on that game as far as I can tell.  The media kind of went Captain Insano about Memorial shellacking Reitz, but I'd say that was what most people who were paying attention expected.  Same can be said about Heritage Hills' strong performance over an injury weakened Gibson Southern. 

The likely meeting of Memorial and Heritage Hills in Sectional 32 has got to be the most interesting game left in Southern Indiana and my popcorn will be ready!  But yeah, I think Heritage Hills will be getting ready for their next opponent while the Memorial players are handing in their gear.  

Edited October 9, 2024 by TommyTwoTimes

[btownqbcoach1]

23 hours ago, tango said:

I don't think the numbers are solid enough to be the exclusive source for seeding state-wide. I question whether the Sagarin numbers for any SIAC team are truly accurate. None of the SIAC teams "connect" with any other teams outside of the SIAC until Wk.10, and even then 5 of the 10 are in the same Sectional (24). Last year our first game against a non-SIAC team was the Regional against East Central. 

Meh. 

The Sagarin would have the Top 2 correct in sectionals 90+% of the time. 

Idk how else you would seed them. Can't possibly use "opinion".. we've seen how disastrous polling is. 

[Titan32]

21 hours ago, TommyTwoTimes said:

10 points?  I don't know. Honestly, I posted that with tongue in cheek.  Obviously the main toss up on that list is Heritage Hills and Memorial. There's no common opponents to make any kind of real prediction on that game as far as I can tell.  The media kind of went Captain Insano about Memorial shellacking Reitz, but I'd say that was what most people who were paying attention expected.  Same can be said about Heritage Hills' strong performance over an injury weakened Gibson Southern. 

The likely meeting of Memorial and Heritage Hills in Sectional 32 has got to be the most interesting game left in Southern Indiana and my popcorn will be ready!  But yeah, I think Heritage Hills will be getting ready for their next opponent while the Memorial players are handing in their gear.  

The SIAC fans tend to think God created the heavens, the earth, and then the SIAC.  The closed conference kind of allows a bit of a scapegoat to perpetuate the myth.  Teams two through six are a toss-up on any given night.  Is that because it's a meat grinder of a conference, or because in general, it's just kind of ....Meh? The parochials' are led by coaching legends who year after year have a higher number of top-quality coachable kids than an equally sized public can only count on every decade or so.  I can tell you this, Sagairn is NOT 10 points off on every SIAC team right now.  It's closer than they want to believe.  Don't let this distract you from the fact that Al Bundy scored four touchdowns in a single game while playing for the Polk High School Panthers in the 1966 city championship game versus Andrew Johnson High School, including the game-winning touchdown in the final seconds against his old nemesis, "Spare Tire" Dixon.

[jets]

I'll just say this one time and be done with it - cause it is what it is at this point - but what a JOKE when comparing the 2 sectionals. Anyone with half-a-brain could have figured out a more even/balanced scenarios for the tournament. Yes, there'd be 2 hour drive times - but newsflash - there are 2 hour drive times anyway already in 31. 

Again - it is what it is - but the incompetency of the IHSAA just never ceases to amaze. 

SECTIONAL 31
SECT. RANK	STATE RANK	TEAM	OVERALL RATING	SCHEDULE STRENGTH RANK		RECENT RATING   RANK		PREDICTOR RATING   RANK
1	149	Indian Creek	52.80	44.08	201	53.12	133	53.47	151
2	157	Scottsburg	50.95	32.86	270	47.51	157	51.78	156
3	165	Madison	50.03	55.91	125	45.08	166	51.71	157
4	205	North Harrison	41.42	36.31	250	36.42	205	36.58	220
5	234	Corydon Central	32.20	41.83	209	23.19	245	30.84	233
6	263	Edgewood	24.72	50.19	163	10.40	285	24.00	266
7	295	Owen Valley	14.23	48.23	172	3.31	299	15.15	291
SECTIONAL 32
SECT. RANK	STATE RANK	TEAM	OVERALL RATING	SCHEDULE STRENGTH RANK		RECENT RATING   RANK		PREDICTOR RATING   RANK
1	6	Heritage Hills	91.77	62.33	73	92.91	8	90.68	5
2	22	Evansville Memorial	82.59	57.90	105	81.24	26	80.92	28
3	42	Evansville Mater Dei	75.66	61.42	79	72.84	51	76.32	37
4	44	Gibson Southern	75.29	65.53	48	68.43	64	77.27	35
5	52	Southridge	72.92	52.74	145	68.59	63	75.88	39
6	127	Vincennes Lincoln	58.12	59.31	96	55.76	125	59.48	117
7	141	Mount Vernon (Posey)	55.42	55.71	126	46.55	158	56.56	134
8	254	Princeton	27.83	51.57	154	16.22	271	28.62	238

[HHPatriots]

1 hour ago, Titan32 said:

The SIAC fans tend to think God created the heavens, the earth, and then the SIAC.  The closed conference kind of allows a bit of a scapegoat to perpetuate the myth.  Teams two through six are a toss-up on any given night.  Is that because it's a meat grinder of a conference, or because in general, it's just kind of ....Meh? The parochials' are led by coaching legends who year after year have a higher number of top-quality coachable kids than an equally sized public can only count on every decade or so.  I can tell you this, Sagairn is NOT 10 points off on every SIAC team right now.  It's closer than they want to believe.  Don't let this distract you from the fact that Al Bundy scored four touchdowns in a single game while playing for the Polk High School Panthers in the 1966 city championship game versus Andrew Johnson High School, including the game-winning touchdown in the final seconds against his old nemesis, "Spare Tire" Dixon.

Just had this conversation with Jon Goldsberry Sunday at church (devoid of Al Bundy). How good is Castle, really?  North is not good.  Central, Harrison and Bosse are terrible year after year and lest we forget Reitz running the table a few years back only to get beat by Boonville week 1.  This statement is truth.

1 hour ago, jets said:

I'll just say this one time and be done with it - cause it is what it is at this point - but what a JOKE when comparing the 2 sectionals. Anyone with half-a-brain could have figured out a more even/balanced scenarios for the tournament. Yes, there'd be 2 hour drive times - but newsflash - there are 2 hour drive times anyway already in 31. 

Again - it is what it is - but the incompetency of the IHSAA just never ceases to amaze. 

SECTIONAL 31
SECT. RANK	STATE RANK	TEAM	OVERALL RATING	SCHEDULE STRENGTH RANK		RECENT RATING   RANK		PREDICTOR RATING   RANK
1	149	Indian Creek	52.80	44.08	201	53.12	133	53.47	151
2	157	Scottsburg	50.95	32.86	270	47.51	157	51.78	156
3	165	Madison	50.03	55.91	125	45.08	166	51.71	157
4	205	North Harrison	41.42	36.31	250	36.42	205	36.58	220
5	234	Corydon Central	32.20	41.83	209	23.19	245	30.84	233
6	263	Edgewood	24.72	50.19	163	10.40	285	24.00	266
7	295	Owen Valley	14.23	48.23	172	3.31	299	15.15	291
SECTIONAL 32
SECT. RANK	STATE RANK	TEAM	OVERALL RATING	SCHEDULE STRENGTH RANK		RECENT RATING   RANK		PREDICTOR RATING   RANK
1	6	Heritage Hills	91.77	62.33	73	92.91	8	90.68	5
2	22	Evansville Memorial	82.59	57.90	105	81.24	26	80.92	28
3	42	Evansville Mater Dei	75.66	61.42	79	72.84	51	76.32	37
4	44	Gibson Southern	75.29	65.53	48	68.43	64	77.27	35
5	52	Southridge	72.92	52.74	145	68.59	63	75.88	39
6	127	Vincennes Lincoln	58.12	59.31	96	55.76	125	59.48	117
7	141	Mount Vernon (Posey)	55.42	55.71	126	46.55	158	56.56	134
8	254	Princeton	27.83	51.57	154	16.22	271	28.62	238

Regional will be a 30+ point blowout.

[tango]

2 hours ago, HHPatriots said:

Just had this conversation with Jon Goldsberry Sunday at church (devoid of Al Bundy). How good is Castle, really?  North is not good.  Central, Harrison and Bosse are terrible year after year and lest we forget Reitz running the table a few years back only to get beat by Boonville week 1.  This statement is truth.

Those are all good questions. Similar to these...

How good is North Posey or Southridge, really? I saw HH at NP and NP looks a lot like North to me, with less size on the lines and less speed at the skill positions. Most of Southridge's wins are against the PAC equivalent of Central, Harrison and Boose, right? Boonville is not good. Mt. Vernon is always mediocre. Gibson Southern is in the same boat as Reitz, lost some key players to injuries. 

In reality, the PAC and SIAC are usually pretty similar. One or two very good teams, a handful of decent teams, and some perennially bad programs that struggle to compete. 

My comment about Sagarin wasn't that the SIAC is better than the PAC, it was simply that I don't believe the SIAC numbers are accurate based on what I understand the methodology to be.  

Edited October 10, 2024 by tango

[HHPatriots]

33 minutes ago, tango said:

Those are all good questions. Similar to these...

How good is North Posey or Southridge, really? I saw HH at NP and NP looks a lot like North to me, with less size on the lines and less speed at the skill positions. Most of Southridge's wins are against the PAC equivalent of Central, Harrison and Boose, right? Boonville is not good. Mt. Vernon is always mediocre. Gibson Southern is in the same boat as Reitz, lost some key players to injuries. 

In reality, the PAC and SIAC are usually pretty similar. One or two very good teams, a handful of decent teams, and some perennially bad programs that struggle to compete. 

My comment about Sagarin wasn't that the SIAC is better than the PAC, it was simply that I don't believe the SIAC numbers are accurate based on what I understand the methodology to be.  

I don't disagree with what you are saying at all.  I think the comment is referring to the idea that you have all these BIG schools in the SIAC with some historically solid programs (i.e. Castle) that seem to get it together.  A school like North, with their size, should have no trouble putting a competitive team together.  

It could be deceptive on how good any of us are--Memorial or Heritage Hills.  I say all this recognizing that Memorial could blow through sectional winning every game by a bunch, but so could GS or HH.....I'm not sure any of us have been tested yet.  Except the CAL game, they are ridiculously good, but that was a game that if a few of the small things were different could have been 21-14.  Still a loss, but not as bad....but it is football, the little things will destroy you. 

Edited October 10, 2024 by HHPatriots

[AW0352]

5 hours ago, btownqbcoach1 said:

Meh. 

The Sagarin would have the Top 2 correct in sectionals 90+% of the time. 

Idk how else you would seed them. Can't possibly use "opinion".. we've seen how disastrous polling is. 

It’s really very simple.   The Sunday after the last regular season game all the head coaches in that sectional meet with a “seeder” at one of the schools.    All the coaches talk about the wins and losses they have.    Every coach then seeds all the teams but their own.  The coach seeds would be visible to all.     Take the average of the seeds.   Tiebreakers would be head to head and common opponents.   Not a whole lot different than wrestling sectionals.   I think all the seeds would look pretty good.  

[tango]

27 minutes ago, HHPatriots said:

It could be deceptive on how good any of us are--Memorial or Heritage Hills.  

That is why I am excited for the draw and to get the tournament started. 

Edited October 10, 2024 by tango

[Titan32]

More trivia because that's all I'm good for.  GS is fielding its youngest team in the Hart era (13th season).

Edited October 10, 2024 by Titan32

[HHPatriots]

27 minutes ago, Titan32 said:

More trivia because that's all I'm good for.  GS is fielding its youngest team in the Hart era (13th season).

That may have been us last year, not sure....

[btownqbcoach1]

3 hours ago, AW0352 said:

It’s really very simple.   The Sunday after the last regular season game all the head coaches in that sectional meet with a “seeder” at one of the schools.    All the coaches talk about the wins and losses they have.    Every coach then seeds all the teams but their own.  The coach seeds would be visible to all.     Take the average of the seeds.   Tiebreakers would be head to head and common opponents.   Not a whole lot different than wrestling sectionals.   I think all the seeds would look pretty good.  

That's fine. I don't see that is better than the Sagarin, but if that's more fair... that's fine. 

[TigerFan20]

Sectional Draw today! Let’s see what crazy matchups we will have in the first round.

[Alduflux]

On 10/10/2024 at 10:12 AM, Titan32 said:

I can tell you this, Sagairn is NOT 10 points off on every SIAC team right now. 

I have followed Sagarin with interest regarding how it chooses to rate the closed conference.  In the four previous seasons the SIAC highest rated team was undervalued after week 9 vs week 15 by 13 points twice (2020,2021) even once (2022) and overvalued by 12 once (2023).  In short, Sagarin has no idea how to rate a closed conference.

The PAC highest rated team has been undervalued twice by 3 pts (2021, 2023) and overvalued twice by 3 pts (2020, 2022).

MD's state championship (2022) was undervalued 10 pts after week 9.  Sagarin being off by 10 pts in a closed conference this time of year is to be expected. 

[tango]

4 minutes ago, Alduflux said:

I have followed Sagarin with interest regarding how it chooses to rate the closed conference.  In the four previous seasons the SIAC highest rated team was undervalued after week 9 vs week 15 by 13 points twice (2020,2021) even once (2022) and overvalued by 12 once (2023).  In short, Sagarin has no idea how to rate a closed conference.

The PAC highest rated team has been undervalued twice by 3 pts (2021, 2023) and overvalued twice by 3 pts (2020, 2022).

MD's state championship (2022) was undervalued 10 pts after week 9.  Sagarin being off by 10 pts in a closed conference this time of year is to be expected. 

But Titan32 told us it was NOT off? You expect me to believe real data?

[Titan32]

54 minutes ago, Alduflux said:

I have followed Sagarin with interest regarding how it chooses to rate the closed conference.  In the four previous seasons the SIAC highest rated team was undervalued after week 9 vs week 15 by 13 points twice (2020,2021) even once (2022) and overvalued by 12 once (2023).  In short, Sagarin has no idea how to rate a closed conference.

The PAC highest rated team has been undervalued twice by 3 pts (2021, 2023) and overvalued twice by 3 pts (2020, 2022).

MD's state championship (2022) was undervalued 10 pts after week 9.  Sagarin being off by 10 pts in a closed conference this time of year is to be expected. 

How are you determining if a team is over or undervalued vs Sagarin after week 9?