Post Season Conference Analysis - Trending Up /Trending Down

[BTF]

2 minutes ago, vicvinegar said:

There was contact. Personally, it looks like he grabs his arm. I'm fine with someone arguing that it was hand fighting and should have been a no call, but to call it a phantom call is incorrect. 

I would have to re-watch it before getting into an all out debate. In watching the replay, I felt like I had a pretty good look................if there was contact, a love tap was all it was. Again, not the only reason Dwenger lost, but it certainly didn't help. 

Stax..............unfortunately I cannot find a video recording of the game. I'd like to re-watch that play too. Anyway, kudos to Zionsville for taking out Fort Wayne's best team. 

[BTF]

1 hour ago, psaboy said:

I will add, the only team in the SAC that has been respectable against the Indy Mega Schools are the Mighty Panthers of Snider. Not so much in past 5-7 years or so, but looking overall. Things change and I understand that, but Snider should be back in 6A after the next two years. 

2014     Snider 32, Westfield 24

2015     Snider 64, New Pal 61

2016     Westfield 23, Snider 17 (nice come from behind win for the Shamrocks)

2017     Carmel 22, Snider 21 (nice come from behind win for the Greyhounds)

2018     Carmel 20, Snider 6

Five games in the past seven years.............all pretty respectable. 

 

[Guest DT]

1 hour ago, psaboy said:

I will add, the only team in the SAC that has been respectable against the Indy Mega Schools are the Mighty Panthers of Snider. Not so much in past 5-7 years or so, but looking overall. Things change and I understand that, but Snider should be back in 6A after the next two years. 

Or, the conference may have peaked and you may be seeing further decline out of the FW city schools as a group.  I think this is entirely possible given what we have seen out of the other large northern Indiana cities  (Hammond/Gary/South Bend)  All have experienced significant contraction.  FW has yet to be impoacted, with the exception of Elmhurst.

As the burbs continue to grow and the inner city erodes over time, more FW city schools will likley be shuddered.  Hammond made the drastic decision to cut from 4 high schools to two.  Could FW eventually drop from 6 public high schools to 4?  

 

[Yuccaguy]

5 minutes ago, DT said:

Or, the conference may have peaked and you may be seeing further decline out of the FW city schools as a group.  I think this is entirely possible given what we have seen out of the other large northern Indiana cities  (Hammond/Gary/South Bend)  All have experienced significant contraction.  FW has yet to be impoacted, with the exception of Elmhurst.

As the burbs continue to grow and the inner city erodes over time, more FW city schools will likley be shuddered.  Hammond made the drastic decision to cut from 4 high schools to two.  Could FW eventually drop from 6 public high schools to 4?  

 

Fort Wayne (FWCS) has 5 HS as of now...  Wayne, North Side, South Side, Snider and Northrop.  Not sure what the 6th (FWCS High school) is.

The other 5 schools that make up the SAC are: Carroll (NACS), Homestead (SACS), Concordia (PP - Lutheran) and 2 additional (PP - Catholic) Bishop Luers and Bishop Dwenger.

[psaboy]

9 hours ago, BTF said:

2014     Snider 32, Westfield 24

2015     Snider 64, New Pal 61

2016     Westfield 23, Snider 17 (nice come from behind win for the Shamrocks)

2017     Carmel 22, Snider 21 (nice come from behind win for the Greyhounds)

2018     Carmel 20, Snider 6

Five games in the past seven years.............all pretty respectable. 

 

yep, respectable but 2-3. Need W's, just win baby !!

[BDGiant93]

16 hours ago, temptation said:

It’d be like Illinois and Rutgers boasting about Ohio State making the college football playoff...

You don’t get to puff your chest out and claim conference superiority when over half of your conference’s D1 players are on one team.

I'll put the MIC up against any conference in Indiana. You put up your best eight teams and let's see who wins the matchups.

[HoosierFB_JG]

21 hours ago, temptation said:

Center Grove did carry the water for the top conference in Indiana and one of the best in the Midwest. I'm sure they'll take it. 
 

Fixed it for you.  They were 4 scores better than everybody not named Lawrence North this year...

Funny though, the MIC still won 4 sectionals and 2 regionals.  Thought the HCC was going to take over as top dog last year?

 

 Just 3 years ago Ben Davis did the same against everyone and just 2 years ago Warren Central did the same against everyone.  Since that doesn’t fit your narrative though, no need to recognize it, right?

 

The way you act on this forum says you’re either 14 years old and still trying to mature or you’re mid 40’s and never matured.  Either way, you get my point.

[Tommy]

On 11/16/2020 at 4:17 PM, scarab527 said:

I disagree with your analysis of the DAC. I think the DAC has to be considered trending up. Valpo has won 3 straight regionals, Merrillville 2 straight. Valpo overcame a lot of covid and injury adversity to get there. Merrillville took down a good Elkhart team despite throwing 3 INTs, the Pirates were cruising up 14-0 until the turnover party began. Chesterton beat Penn, admittedly in a down year, but you tell me the last time when the 3rd best team in the DAC beat Penn in the playoffs. The Trojans then took Elkhart down to the wire and nearly won that game. Coach Mason told me before the season that he thought Michigan City was “a year away”, but they still took Valpo down to the wire in the sectional and had a good win over Warsaw in the regular season. I think Coach Mason feels great about his team’s prospects for next year. LaPorte played Valpo tougher than anyone expected in the sectional and had a great win over Michigan City in the regular season. I think that program is trending up. Crown Point was hit the hardest by covid this year, but this program is only a couple years away from winning 3 straight 6A sectionals. They’ll recover. Portage hasn’t been good in over a decade and definitely wasn’t going to be good this season after the Radtke fiasco combined with covid. LC is admittedly trending in the wrong direction. 

Lake Central is trending up.  Coach Bartolomeo has resigned.

[scarab527]

57 minutes ago, Tommy said:

Lake Central is trending up.  Coach Bartolomeo has resigned.

It’s gonna take a lot more than a new coach to get that program trending up...

[BTF]

2 hours ago, BDGiant93 said:

I'll put the MIC up against any conference in Indiana. You put up your best eight teams and let's see who wins the matchups.

I agree that the MIC normally has the best teams with some serious push from the HCC. Can't really compare the MIC to the SAC though due to massive enrollment differences. 

[BTF]

11 hours ago, DT said:

Or, the conference may have peaked and you may be seeing further decline out of the FW city schools as a group.  I think this is entirely possible given what we have seen out of the other large northern Indiana cities  (Hammond/Gary/South Bend)  All have experienced significant contraction.  FW has yet to be impoacted, with the exception of Elmhurst.

As the burbs continue to grow and the inner city erodes over time, more FW city schools will likley be shuddered.  Hammond made the drastic decision to cut from 4 high schools to two.  Could FW eventually drop from 6 public high schools to 4?  

 

The only school I see suffering from mass exodus to the burbs is Snider. What was once a white collar community has turned, by and large, blue collar in a hurry. Socioeconomic factors plays a big part as does the decline in enrollment from 2200 to 1800. Overall, it's still a good community with fantastic support for the football program. The coaching staff has done an excellent job despite the challenges facing them. Look for Snider to continue to be a player in the upcoming years. They had a young team this year that struggled against teams with good quarterbacks.

I can't imagine Fort Wayne dropping another public school. They already dropped Elmhurst and Harding. Although Harding wasn't FWCS, 95% of their student body were from inside Fort Wayne city limits. 

[crimsonace1]

12 hours ago, BTF said:

2014     Snider 32, Westfield 24

2015     Snider 64, New Pal 61

2016     Westfield 23, Snider 17 (nice come from behind win for the Shamrocks)

2017     Carmel 22, Snider 21 (nice come from behind win for the Greyhounds)

2018     Carmel 20, Snider 6

Five games in the past seven years.............all pretty respectable. 

 

New Pal had an enrollment of 1,100 at the time. Not exactly a mega-school like Carmel (although Westfield was probably about 1,500 or so in 2014 ... it has grown rapidly). 

[Prospect]

13 minutes ago, crimsonace1 said:

New Pal had an enrollment of 1,100 at the time. Not exactly a mega-school like Carmel (although Westfield was probably about 1,500 or so in 2014 ... it has grown rapidly). 

New Pal was definitely not a mega schools, but they have been damn good at football since 2013 😄

[Prospect]

15 hours ago, DT said:

From an outsiders POV, it seemed like a lackluster regular season for the SAC this year and a pretty solid post season.  I am a big fan of the conference championship, and many schools overlook this prize due to the all in nature of the tournament.  It seemed like there were few "big games" during the regular season, or less than usual.  Just the fact that the flagship (Snider) is somewhat down is going to psychologically reduce the competitive profile of the conference, at least temporarily.

I was also very disturbed by the comments coming from Dwenger regarding declining participation and potential apathetic attitudes towards football.  That is a real concern.  Look at what has happened to Noll in The Region and to St Joe in South Bend.  Dwenger is not immune from these same forces seeping in to destroy its football culture.

I was wondering the other day how the SAC could take the next step forward and improve its competitive profile.  The solution I came up with was to add Warsaw and East Noble or Leo and ship off the smallest or consistently most underperforming  city schools off to the NE8.  This would be similar to the NIC or The Region going thru natural contraction due to closings and consolidations.  Therer just isnt enough talent in The Fort to support all those public schools.  

Dwenger will be fine, their numbers aren't declining. The person you are talking about would also like to see Dwenger play in 3A and has a horrible attitude whenever Dwenger has to play a quality opponent. Just imagine the comments if you applied the 2x multiplier and they were in 6A there would be contraction talks for the Dwenger football program

[temptation]

2 hours ago, HoosierFB_JG said:

Funny though, the MIC still won 4 sectionals and 2 regionals.  Thought the HCC was going to take over as top dog last year?

 

 Just 3 years ago Ben Davis did the same against everyone and just 2 years ago Warren Central did the same against everyone.  Since that doesn’t fit your narrative though, no need to recognize it, right?

 

The way you act on this forum says you’re either 14 years old and still trying to mature or you’re mid 40’s and never matured.  Either way, you get my point.

I love how not bowing down and being a MIC blowhard makes one a heel on this website.  There is no debate currently, I agree.  I’ve given the MIC credit as king and am baffled as to why the HCC has yet to breakthrough.

But let’s not pretend that the MIC’s success is some disrespect/under dog story.  You have massive enrollments, great facilities, committed athletic departments which allow coaches to make nearly six figures just to supervise a weight room all day and coach football.

The HCC has slowly been upgrading their commitment to the sport and with the way the socioeconomics are trending, I still maintain it’s a matter of WHEN and not “if” the HCC gets its breakthrough.

Another poster on this forum, gave me 2030 in terms of the MIC winning every 6A title between now and them.  I’ll take that bet in a heart beat.

So easily triggered, some of you...

Edited November 19, 2020 by temptation

[Muda69]

1 hour ago, temptation said:

You have massive enrollments, great facilities, committed athletic departments which allow coaches to make nearly six figures just to supervise a weight room all day and coach football.

Really?  Is this publicly available information?

 

[Justasportsfan]

2 hours ago, temptation said:

I love how not bowing down and being a MIC blowhard makes one a heel on this website.  There is no debate currently, I agree.  I’ve given the MIC credit as king and am baffled as to why the HCC has yet to breakthrough.

But let’s not pretend that the MIC’s success is some disrespect/under dog story.  You have massive enrollments, great facilities, committed athletic departments which allow coaches to make nearly six figures just to supervise a weight room all day and coach football.

The HCC has slowly been upgrading their commitment to the sport and with the way the socioeconomics are trending, I still maintain it’s a matter of WHEN and not “if” the HCC gets its breakthrough.

Another poster on this forum, gave me 2030 in terms of the MIC winning every 6A title between now and them.  I’ll take that bet in a heart beat.

So easily triggered, some of you...

U think the hcc will stop the mic trend in the next decade? I'm wondering what the magic number is..cg still around 2500 enrollment? Also putting Carmel in the south gives a few programs the chance at a "Hoosier " upset.. what programs do u see stopping this trend?

9 minutes ago, Muda69 said:

Really?  Is this publicly available information?

 

Yes..id apply..! Lbs..we need a few more hundred dollar handshakes around these parts..obviously 

[temptation]

29 minutes ago, Muda69 said:

Really?  Is this publicly available information?

 

Yep.  All public teacher salaries are public information.

[BigBH]

Just my opinion...the MIC will further tighten its grip on the state's best conference, and an HCC downturn will widen the gap below the MIC.  Westfield will again win the HCC next year with the other conference schools in rebuild that a few are struggling to accomplish.

[temptation]

34 minutes ago, Justasportsfan said:

U think the hcc will stop the mic trend in the next decade? I'm wondering what the magic number is..cg still around 2500 enrollment? Also putting Carmel in the south gives a few programs the chance at a "Hoosier " upset.. what programs do u see stopping this trend?

Yes..id apply..! Lbs..we need a few more hundred dollar handshakes around these parts..obviously 

I’d say any of the big 6 (sorry FC/Noblesville) have a realistic shot if they catch lightning in a bottle.

Growing communities with two parent households and athletic departments that are upping their game in their commitment to football.

As previously mentioned, I’d expect Westfield to top 3000 students in the next 4-5 years.  HSE and Fishers get a “Covid pass” in 2020 in my book as both were breaking in new head coaches.

Zionsville is playing its last year EVER in 5A, that’s a fact.  They are growing at a quick rate and have a free reduced percentage that is actually lower than Carmel’s (May surprise some.).

Avon will remain a factor and actually improved significantly throughout the season, nearly upsetting Brownsburg in the process with a FRESHMAN QB.  They have the highest free/reduced numbers outside of FC so their window may be a tad smaller than the others.

I just don’t know about Brownsburg.  Seems they peaked early and probably have made the biggest commitment to football out of any program in Indiana over the last few years.  They have a decent junior class but if this senior class couldn’t get it done, I’d say 2021 is more of the same.

Edited November 19, 2020 by temptation

[Justasportsfan]

@temptation I concur...if they can put together something special I'd give them a 10% chance at least..out of all classes 6a has the least parity..if Elkhart does not consolidate... zionsville is 6a this year..although imho valpo the gets the red this year for 5a..i wonder if the two conferences will ever readjust/realign..seeing Avon or brownsburg playing mic schools could escalate their competitive nature..dont see a 6a north team winning unless it's a very special team..if that happens I'll gladly admit i was wrong..

[temptation]

18 minutes ago, Justasportsfan said:

@temptation I concur...if they can put together something special I'd give them a 10% chance at least..out of all classes 6a has the least parity..if Elkhart does not consolidate... zionsville is 6a this year..although imho valpo the gets the red this year for 5a..i wonder if the two conferences will ever readjust/realign..seeing Avon or brownsburg playing mic schools could escalate their competitive nature..dont see a 6a north team winning unless it's a very special team..if that happens I'll gladly admit i was wrong..

DT will tell you that conference realignment is just a matter of time.

He is right in that the profile of Carmel and CG fits in the HCC much more so than the MIC and Covid has only widened the gap.  That is yet another reason why BD's upset of Carmel was such a surprise to me (kudos to the posters on here who called it back in August).

I know folks get sick and tired of me going back to the same thing, but Carmel (10 percent) and (CG 21 percent) have little in common with the remaining MIC schools other than enrollment.  As a matter of fact, if you average the free/reduced numbers of the remaining 5 townships that make up the conference, you get an average of 66 percent.

People say it doesn't matter but there is more to life than football.  Carmel is bored and will eventually run out of room and start using conference championship trophies as door stops to their classrooms.  They are cleaning house in the non-revenue sports and have won the "All-MIC" award every year of its existence.

Take the free/reduced numbers of the HCC schools:

Zionsville - 5 percent

HSE/Fishers - 15 percent

Westfield - 17 percent

Noblesville - 23 percent

Brownsburg - 25 percent

Avon - 33 percent

Franklin Township - 40 percent

FC is in no man's land in the HCC and will never compete in more than 2-3 sports.  They are growing, but not as fast as Westfield.  Maybe an FC/Avon swap for Carmel/CG is in the future?

[Guest DT]

18 minutes ago, temptation said:

DT will tell you that conference realignment is just a matter of time.

He is right in that the profile of Carmel and CG fits in the HCC much more so than the MIC and Covid has only widened the gap.  That is yet another reason why BD's upset of Carmel was such a surprise to me (kudos to the posters on here who called it back in August).

I know folks get sick and tired of me going back to the same thing, but Carmel (10 percent) and (CG 21 percent) have little in common with the remaining MIC schools other than enrollment.  As a matter of fact, if you average the free/reduced numbers of the remaining 5 townships that make up the conference, you get an average of 66 percent.

People say it doesn't matter but there is more to life than football.  Carmel is bored and will eventually run out of room and start using conference championship trophies as door stops to their classrooms.  They are cleaning house in the non-revenue sports and have won the "All-MIC" award every year of its existence.

Take the free/reduced numbers of the HCC schools:

Zionsville - 5 percent

HSE/Fishers - 15 percent

Westfield - 17 percent

Noblesville - 23 percent

Brownsburg - 25 percent

Avon - 33 percent

Franklin Township - 40 percent

FC is in no man's land in the HCC and will never compete in more than 2-3 sports.  They are growing, but not as fast as Westfield.  Maybe an FC/Avon swap for Carmel/CG is in the future?

I think the MIC should do everything in its power to maintain its status as the greatest football conference in Indiana and one of  the  top leagues throughout the midwest.

Given those goals, MIC should pursue Avon and BBurg and swap out LC and LN in an even trade with the HCC.  AV and BB are "football schools"  That is the foundation upon which the MIC was conceived and built.  The Lawrence schools are more aligned geographically,  competitively, culturally and enrollment wise with The HCC.  I believe this would be a big win-win for both conferences.  

Edited November 19, 2020 by DT

[BigBH]

19 minutes ago, DT said:

I think the MIC should do everything in its power to maintain its status as the greatest football conference in Indiana and one of  the  top leagues throughout the midwest.

Given those goals, MIC should pursue Avon and BBurg and swap out LC and LN in an even trade with the HCC.  AV and BB are "football schools"  That is the foundation upon which the MIC was conceived and built.  The Lawrence schools are more aligned geographically,  competitively, culturally and enrollment wise with The HCC.  I believe this would be a big win-win for both conferences.  

Avon doesn't have the roster depth for a MIC schedule...maybe in a few years that may change

[temptation]

47 minutes ago, DT said:

I think the MIC should do everything in its power to maintain its status as the greatest football conference in Indiana and one of  the  top leagues throughout the midwest.

Given those goals, MIC should pursue Avon and BBurg and swap out LC and LN in an even trade with the HCC.  AV and BB are "football schools"  That is the foundation upon which the MIC was conceived and built.  The Lawrence schools are more aligned geographically,  competitively, culturally and enrollment wise with The HCC.  I believe this would be a big win-win for both conferences.  

I like my suggestion better.  If geography were a factor, the HCC would’ve never considered Franklin Central.