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Cinderella is a myth


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23 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

I will continue to push my narrative until the IHSAA gets it right. They haven’t since 1984.

The second they seed the sectionals accordingly a qualifier is sure to follow. 58-2 top half vs bottom half. 

Until the IHSAA gets it right? When will that happen?  The all-in is the only thing the IHSAA has done right since 1973.

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I may be in the wrong here and I know that 1 person thinks I am but when I look around at NCAA basketball, it seems to be expanding post-season participation. Same with college football adding to their playoff. NFL added post season teams with a 7th seed recently. MLB recently expanded also. NO ONE is cutting back on post-season play. They are all expanding. Motivated by money, sure but no one is going the way of contracting post season play.

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39 minutes ago, JQWL said:

I may be in the wrong here and I know that 1 person thinks I am but when I look around at NCAA basketball, it seems to be expanding post-season participation. Same with college football adding to their playoff. NFL added post season teams with a 7th seed recently. MLB recently expanded also. NO ONE is cutting back on post-season play. They are all expanding. Motivated by money, sure but no one is going the way of contracting post season play.

I agree with what you are saying, and I think you are spot-on in the reasoning at those higher levels, but I'm not as sure that, in the all-in in Indiana high school football, money is as influential as it is in those other areas that you mention.  Don't get me wrong, money certainly talks, but I don't think that it's the specific driving reasoning for a resistance to a qualifier.  With that said, should sponsorships and streaming at high school become a more lucrative influence, that may well change.

 

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2 hours ago, JQWL said:

I may be in the wrong here and I know that 1 person thinks I am but when I look around at NCAA basketball, it seems to be expanding post-season participation. Same with college football adding to their playoff. NFL added post season teams with a 7th seed recently. MLB recently expanded also. NO ONE is cutting back on post-season play. They are all expanding. Motivated by money, sure but no one is going the way of contracting post season play.

$$$$$

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I took your arbitrary cut of 50% for 6A, to see that that would mean using Sagarin.  

Team eliminated (falling in the bottom 16)with their 2022 record include

  • Warsaw 7-2
  • Elkhart 7-2
  • Homestead 5-4
  • Zionsville 4-5
  • Lake Central 4-5
  • Columbus North 4-5

3 teams over .500 and 3 more teams on the cusp.  Eliminating them, what is the true benefit? I am not talking about your personal satisfaction....how does it benefit those kids, coaching staffs and communities?

Are you saying these teams cannot be competitive in the playoffs?

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41 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

I took your arbitrary cut of 50% for 6A, to see that that would mean using Sagarin.  

Team eliminated (falling in the bottom 16)with their 2022 record include

  • Warsaw 7-2
  • Elkhart 7-2
  • Homestead 5-4
  • Zionsville 4-5
  • Lake Central 4-5
  • Columbus North 4-5

3 teams over .500 and 3 more teams on the cusp.  Eliminating them, what is the true benefit? I am not talking about your personal satisfaction....how does it benefit those kids, coaching staffs and communities?

Are you saying these teams cannot be competitive in the playoffs?

It has probably been longer than I realize but I remember when Zionsville finished 4-5 and won the state finals. I believe it was pre-6A. I'll have to check John Harrell.

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39 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

I took your arbitrary cut of 50% for 6A, to see that that would mean using Sagarin.  

Team eliminated (falling in the bottom 16)with their 2022 record include

  • Warsaw 7-2
  • Elkhart 7-2
  • Homestead 5-4
  • Zionsville 4-5
  • Lake Central 4-5
  • Columbus North 4-5

3 teams over .500 and 3 more teams on the cusp.  Eliminating them, what is the true benefit? I am not talking about your personal satisfaction....how does it benefit those kids, coaching staffs and communities?

Are you saying these teams cannot be competitive in the playoffs?

Zionsville is a two-time runner-up for 5A to Cathedral before bumping up to 6A along with Cathedral.  In 2021 and 2020, they were 4-5 in the regular season before finishing 9-6 and 7-6, respectively, and a pair of red rings.

6 minutes ago, JQWL said:

It has probably been longer than I realize but I remember when Zionsville finished 4-5 and won the state finals. I believe it was pre-6A. I'll have to check John Harrell.

You are correct sir about the 4-5 and the trip to LOS, except that they got the red ring ... at least in 2021 and 2020.

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40 minutes ago, foxbat said:

Zionsville is a two-time runner-up for 5A to Cathedral before bumping up to 6A along with Cathedral.  In 2021 and 2020, they were 4-5 in the regular season before finishing 9-6 and 7-6, respectively, and a pair of red rings.

46 minutes ago, JQWL said:

Zionsville was a top 16 Sagarin rated team in 5A in 2020 and 2021 and would have made a postseason qualifier that effectively cut the field in half at the conclusion of the regular season.

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1 hour ago, Bash Riprock said:

I took your arbitrary cut of 50% for 6A, to see that that would mean using Sagarin.  

Team eliminated (falling in the bottom 16)with their 2022 record include

  • Warsaw 7-2
  • Elkhart 7-2
  • Homestead 5-4
  • Zionsville 4-5
  • Lake Central 4-5
  • Columbus North 4-5

3 teams over .500 and 3 more teams on the cusp.  Eliminating them, what is the true benefit? I am not talking about your personal satisfaction....how does it benefit those kids, coaching staffs and communities?

Are you saying these teams cannot be competitive in the playoffs?

Warsaw and Elkhart played the second and third easiest schedules in 6A. Neither school has beat a 6A opponent the entire year and Warsaw got pumped by the their two toughest opponents. Both schools would be 1 or 2 win teams if they played an HCC or MIC schedule.

Unfortunately, one of these two teams will win a postseason game next week by virtue of playing each other in an archaic format (as will Avon/Pike) while one of Ben Davis or Brownsburg is done after the first round.

A travesty.

Edited by Footballking16
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It’s so simple.    All in tournament that is seeded by the participating schools in that sectional.   Wrestling does it at literally every tournament with way more participants.    It isn’t hard.  Do it in football and basketball.    Have a legit  metric for determining seeding: head to head, record within sectional, records against same class, record against larger classes, etc.   

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On 10/22/2022 at 6:06 AM, Footballking16 said:

Early indications are that top half Sagarin rated teams went 58-2 against bottom half Sagarin rated teams last night in class 1A-4A. Typical, but not at all surprising.

Dekalb #39 over #29 New Haven and #40 New Castle over #31 Beech Grove both out of 4A were the two “upset” winners. Will be back later with final score analysis to show just how lopsided last nights affairs were.

Cut the field in half people, please.

I'm wondering if you could also track win-loss records of those top half of the qualifiers against each other?  I'm interested to see if it's just as lopsided. Meaning the top half still dominates and the bottom half of the schools deemed worthy to qualify for a playoff system you are proposing. Obviously you'll run into issues like New Pal v Mt. Vernon. But for example, Brebeuf over Northview is an example I would like to see. Is that 58-2 number including Brebeuf's win already? Or do you not include it?

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4 minutes ago, 812FB said:

I'm wondering if you could also track win-loss records of those top half of the qualifiers against each other?  I'm interested to see if it's just as lopsided. Meaning the top half still dominates and the bottom half of the schools deemed worthy to qualify for a playoff system you are proposing. Obviously you'll run into issues like New Pal v Mt. Vernon. But for example, Brebeuf over Northview is an example I would like to see. Is that 58-2 number including Brebeuf's win already? Or do you not include it?

58-2 is the record between top half Sagarin teams and bottom half Sagrin rated teams. 

Cinderella is a myth yet it is a huge talking point as to why the all-in exists. 

 

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Just now, Footballking16 said:

58-2 is the record between top half Sagarin teams and bottom half Sagrin rated teams. 

Cinderella is a myth yet it is a huge talking point as to why the all-in exists. 

Could you please separate the record? I'd like to see the record of the games like Columbia City over Sagarin 32 seed Ft. Wayne Wayne. Or Brebeuf over 21 seed Northview. I think it'll be interesting to see how the bottom half of the qualifiers hold up to the top half.

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23 hours ago, Footballking16 said:

Warsaw and Elkhart played the second and third easiest schedules in 6A. Neither school has beat a 6A opponent the entire year and Warsaw got pumped by the their two toughest opponents. Both schools would be 1 or 2 win teams if they played an HCC or MIC schedule.

...and that's a big problem with your proposal.  Warsaw and Elkhart are not in Central Indiana, so they being a conference member of the MIC or HCC is not an option.  So why should a program be eliminated because of their regional location?  Of course they have a weaker schedule....they do not have the options to play stronger teams given their locations.

Maybe you are right in that they would have less wins in the MIC or HCC....but shouldn't that be proven on the field vs. a computer program that doesn't take into account their options for scheduling?  Especially, if the cut is an arbitrary 50% of an already small field of 32 teams to begin?

How would you feel if your son played for Warsaw and he was on the outside looking in, solely because of where the school is located and his team's scheduling options?

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On 10/23/2022 at 11:26 AM, foxbat said:

Zionsville is a two-time runner-up for 5A to Cathedral before bumping up to 6A along with Cathedral.  In 2021 and 2020, they were 4-5 in the regular season before finishing 9-6 and 7-6, respectively, and a pair of red rings.

You are correct sir about the 4-5 and the trip to LOS, except that they got the red ring ... at least in 2021 and 2020.

Roncalli was 5-4 in 2002 (started season 0-4) and won the state championship.

Center Grove was 4-5 in 2019, and won red rings as the state runner up, losing in the finals to Carmel 20-17.

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6 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

...and that's a big problem with your proposal.  Warsaw and Elkhart are not in Central Indiana, so they being a conference member of the MIC or HCC is not an option.  So why should a program be eliminated because of their regional location?  Of course they have a weaker schedule....they do not have the options to play stronger teams given their locations.

Maybe you are right in that they would have less wins in the MIC or HCC....but shouldn't that be proven on the field vs. a computer program that doesn't take into account their options for scheduling?  Especially, if the cut is an arbitrary 50% of an already small field of 32 teams to begin?

How would you feel if your son played for Warsaw and he was on the outside looking in, solely because of where the school is located and his team's scheduling options?

Nobody is forcing Warsaw to play in the NLC. Warsaw isn’t alone either in that regard. As conferences are always changing and evolving, I think it makes a great deal of sense for schools like Warsaw, Penn, and Elkhart to branch out and start a new conference and do what they can to try and entice Carroll and Homestead. That becomes the premier northern conference almost instantly. And if we’re being honest, if Warsaw doesn’t get blown out by 4A Northwood or 5A Mishawaka, they’re likely in the top half of the field.
 

My playoff proposal includes an added 10th regular season which would greatly benefit a school like Warsaw if they were to stick it out in their current conference.

5 minutes ago, Bash Riprock said:

Roncalli was 5-4 in 2002 (started season 0-4) and won the state championship.

Center Grove was 4-5 in 2019, and won red rings as the state runner up, losing in the finals to Carmel 20-17.

Both those teams would have qualified in a postseason format that effectively cuts the field in half at the conclusion of the regular season.

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3 minutes ago, Footballking16 said:

Nobody is forcing Warsaw to play in the NLC. Warsaw isn’t alone either in that regard. As conferences are always changing and evolving, I think it makes a great deal of sense for schools like Warsaw, Penn, and Elkhart to branch out and start a new conference and do what they can to try and entice Carroll and Homestead. That becomes the premier northern conference almost instantly. And if we’re being honest, if Warsaw doesn’t get blown out by 4A Northwood or 5A Mishawaka, they’re likely in the top half of the field.
 

My playoff proposal includes an added 10th regular season which would greatly benefit a school like Warsaw if they were to stick it out in their current conference.

Both those teams would have qualified in a postseason format that effectively cuts the field in half at the conclusion of the regular season.

Understand the latter....while again, someone is telling a 7-2 team located in a different region of the state outside of the populated Indy metro area they are staying at home.

I don't think it is as easy as you claim changing conferences and traveling all over the northern part of the state.  That impacts all sports and middle schools as well.

You are absolutely entitled to your thoughts and there's some merit.  I think seeding (and that would be controversial to an extent) would at least allow teams to decide it on the field vs. an imperfect computer algorithm.  I completely agree with you that teams like Brownsburg and Ben Davis should not be meeting in the first game of the sectionals.

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