Who is on the Tournament Success Factor bubble?

[BTF]

41 minutes ago, foxbat said:

I don't think it's that far off though as their 3A seasons have typically been ended by eventual state champs in those years.

To be fair, like a lot of teams, they had a down trend in talent after they bumped up. That's the main flaw in the success factor. A run on talent typically gets you to state, then the lessor skilled kids are stuck playing up. 

[NLCTigerFan07]

4 hours ago, BTF said:

Agree. Hell, Cathedral will never win 6A. What'st that tell ya? Jeffersonville, Northrop, Portage, Harrison, Columbus North, and Zionsville are nothing more than sparring partners. 

Agreed with the fact that lower enrollment 6A schools will likely never win a state championship. Look no further than the 5A north matchup of Merrillville and Warsaw.

The Pirates dropped to 5A due to enrollment in 2022. In 3 years, they have won 3 sectionals and are in their 2nd straight Semi-State appearance. Granted, they did make it to Semi-State as a 6A squad 3 straight years from 2019-2021, but each of those seasons were ended in convincing fashion by Carmel and Westfield.

Meanwhile, the Tigers are in their 1st season as a 5A squad since the IHSAA went to 6 classifications, and they just won their 2nd-ever Sectional Championship and 1st ever Regional Championship. As exciting as this postseason run has been for Warsaw, I can't help but think while a Sectional Championship in 6A COULD have happened this season, I have extreme doubts that they would have had any chance in defeating Crown Point in a regional matchup.

You could take it a step further and look at each of those school's Regional opponents.

Valparaiso was in 6A until 2018, and only won 1 sectional title and 1 regional title. Since bumping to 5A in 2019, they have won 6 straight sectionals, 3 regionals, and 2 state championship appearances, winning 1.

Lafayette Jefferson has bounced back and forth between 6A/5A, and most years in 6A were defeated by much larger schools Carmel, FW Carroll, and Crown Point. In their 5A seasons, 3 straight years were ended at the hands of an ever growing Westfield that is now the 18th largest school in the state.

It is a small sample size, but all four schools have seen immediate postseason success moving to a lower class that does not include the mega-schools of 2,500+ enrollment

[First_Backer_Inside]

On 11/16/2024 at 11:16 PM, slice60 said:

My bad. I missed it. In fact, I did not realize that FW Luers is up in the 3A enrollment group.

That's odd. Luers is usually middle of the pack 2A enrollment. They get success factored up to 3A and all of a sudden they have 3A enrollment. But it's so hard for these p/p's to keep their doors open. They can't control their school population. It's so hard to recruit kids to their school. Must just be a coincidence.

[US31]

17 hours ago, MDAlum82 said:

There is no such thing as "the system" when it comes to P/Ps.  There are several different "systems" throughout the state in metro areas such as Indy, Ft Wayne, Evansville, et al.  The Evv Catholic School system has approx 15 grade schools.  Approx 90% of their graduates feed into either Mater Dei or Memorial.   Are these students "recruited"? 

1 Cornithians 1:9

God is faithful, by whom ye were called unto the fellowship of His Son Jesus Christ our Lord

I'd say the big guy is the best recruiter money can't buy!!! 👍

There is an important reason I put "recurited" in quotations......My point is just that EVERY student, at ANY p/p, has made a decision to attend that school over the public school option due to any number of factors...the "system" I refer to, is the system of p/p options that all families have over their public school offering. 

The "system" = If I don't like my public option, I can go to p/p.  Every kid at a p/p has opted for that choice in our educational "system".

Some kids go to p/p's for faith, some for athletics, some for better academics...the point is, whether the kid plays football, soccer, or plays in the orchestra...or does nothing except academics....they were drawn to the p/p over their public offering for a reason. 

I'm actually taking the p/p side on this part of the debate, so I'm unsure why any p/p folks would get defensive😁

[FastpacedO]

21 hours ago, US31 said:

1 Cornithians 1:9

God is faithful, by whom ye were called unto the fellowship of His Son Jesus Christ our Lord

I'd say the big guy is the best recruiter money can't buy!!! 👍

There is an important reason I put "recurited" in quotations......My point is just that EVERY student, at ANY p/p, has made a decision to attend that school over the public school option due to any number of factors...the "system" I refer to, is the system of p/p options that all families have over their public school offering. 

The "system" = If I don't like my public option, I can go to p/p.  Every kid at a p/p has opted for that choice in our educational "system".

Some kids go to p/p's for faith, some for athletics, some for better academics...the point is, whether the kid plays football, soccer, or plays in the orchestra...or does nothing except academics....they were drawn to the p/p over their public offering for a reason. 

I'm actually taking the p/p side on this part of the debate, so I'm unsure why any p/p folks would get defensive😁

I can somewhat agree with that. However I would say most kids that went to P/P K-8th Grade and then attend the P/P feeder High School they never had a Public School to choose from or offering. It was likely decided when they were born in St. Insert name hospital that they were attending P/P schools. Many of them didn't even make the choice or have a say their parents made that choice/decision for them.

[US31]

2 hours ago, FastpacedO said:

I can somewhat agree with that. However I would say most kids that went to P/P K-8th Grade and then attend the P/P feeder High School they never had a Public School to choose from or offering. It was likely decided when they were born in St. Insert name hospital that they were attending P/P schools. Many of them didn't even make the choice or have a say their parents made that choice/decision for them.

So "Someone" made a choice to go p/p instead of public. (Don't disagree with your other than that it just shows that its not always the kid being "recruited".) 

Lets use a blatent action of recruiting as an example: Nefarious Indy Metro 6A coach "recruits" Mikey away from Hickville 2A...don't you think Mikey's parents also have to be on board with making this move? 

Traditional "Everyone Supports it for the right reasons" example:  Lets say 14 year old Lucy is a suzamaphone music prodigy at Hickville high, she doesn't want to go there with no orchestra, she has been to Indy Roseary Super Catholic music camp and wants to go there, you don't think one of Lucy's parents are the actual decision makers in that move?

I stand by my statement.  And again I'm using "recurited" in quotations to show how stupid my public school brethren are when they throw it around as an athletic thing.  EVERY kid at P/P is somehow a recruit...AND THAT IS OK!! They chose p/p because of something they thought was better than the public offereing...AND THAT IS OK!!!  Our academic system provides these options for families...AND THAT IS A GOOD THING!!

[Muda69]

19 minutes ago, US31 said:

So "Someone" made a choice to go p/p instead of public. (Don't disagree with your other than that it just shows that its not always the kid being "recruited".) 

Lets use a blatent action of recruiting as an example: Nefarious Indy Metro 6A coach "recruits" Mikey away from Hickville 2A...don't you think Mikey's parents also have to be on board with making this move? 

Traditional "Everyone Supports it for the right reasons" example:  Lets say 14 year old Lucy is a suzamaphone music prodigy at Hickville high, she doesn't want to go there with no orchestra, she has been to Indy Roseary Super Catholic music camp and wants to go there, you don't think one of Lucy's parents are the actual decision makers in that move?

I stand by my statement.  And again I'm using "recurited" in quotations to show how stupid my public school brethren are when they throw it around as an athletic thing.  EVERY kid at P/P is somehow a recruit...AND THAT IS OK!! They chose p/p because of something they thought was better than the public offereing...AND THAT IS OK!!!  Our academic system provides these options for families...AND THAT IS A GOOD THING!!

"Hickville"?  Really?  Tells us all we need to know regarding your opinion of rural Indiana communities and schools.

 

[FastpacedO]

23 minutes ago, US31 said:

So "Someone" made a choice to go p/p instead of public. (Don't disagree with your other than that it just shows that its not always the kid being "recruited".) 

Lets use a blatent action of recruiting as an example: Nefarious Indy Metro 6A coach "recruits" Mikey away from Hickville 2A...don't you think Mikey's parents also have to be on board with making this move? 

Traditional "Everyone Supports it for the right reasons" example:  Lets say 14 year old Lucy is a suzamaphone music prodigy at Hickville high, she doesn't want to go there with no orchestra, she has been to Indy Roseary Super Catholic music camp and wants to go there, you don't think one of Lucy's parents are the actual decision makers in that move?

I stand by my statement.  And again I'm using "recurited" in quotations to show how stupid my public school brethren are when they throw it around as an athletic thing.  EVERY kid at P/P is somehow a recruit...AND THAT IS OK!! They chose p/p because of something they thought was better than the public offereing...AND THAT IS OK!!!  Our academic system provides these options for families...AND THAT IS A GOOD THING!!

No I agree with you. Private schools especially recruit every student that walks in their doors or else the doors won't stay open. I was just stating for some Public School wasn't even in the thought process from the day they were born.

There also are a whole multitude of reasons parents look to send their kids to P/P school including: Academics, student teacher ratio, religious classes, and yes even extra curriculars. Extra Curriculars don't have to be strictly Football, Basketball, Baseball. It can also be Band, Debate, Model UN, Chess Club. there is a lot. For example the largest P/P in Indiana Cathedral has 1,172 students. The sport with the largest roster would be Football and they probably roster 103 grades 10-12 and 60 to 70 Freshman (which is a big roster). However that is about 1,000 students that don't play football at all so it's not all football it is a lot of other things.

Sometimes things only get looked at in a vaccum with football, there is more than football at P/P and  Public schools.

[US31]

52 minutes ago, Muda69 said:

"Hickville"?  Really?  Tells us all we need to know regarding your opinion of rural Indiana communities and schools.

 

You're right....I should have said Rossville.

[Muda69]

23 minutes ago, US31 said:

You're right....I should have said Rossville.

Thank you.

 

[slice60]

On 11/15/2024 at 11:30 AM, rob said:

So is this correct?

6A -> 5A: Cathedral will move down to 5A (1point in '23+'24)

5A -> 6A: Decatur Central will move up to 6A - won semistate (6+points in '23+'24)

4A -> 5A: New Palestine moves up to 5A only if they win state (5+points in '23+'24)

3A -> 4A: Heritage Hills will move up to 4A - won semistate (6+points in '23+'24)

2A: Lafayette CC - stays up in 2A (3points in '23+'24)

1A -> 2A: North Judson will move up to 2A only if they win state (5+points in '23+'24)

 

 

 

 

 

I did not intend for my previous post to be a quote. That was solely a post from me.

So is this correct?

6A -> 5A: Cathedral will move down to 5A (1point in '23+'24)

5A -> 6A: Decatur Central will move up to 6A - won semistate (6+points in '23+'24)

4A -> 5A: New Palestine moves up to 5A only if they win state (5+points in '23+'24)

3A -> 4A: Heritage Hills will move up to 4A - won semistate (6+points in '23+'24)

2A: Lafayette CC - stays up in 2A (3points in '23+'24)

1A -> 2A: North Judson will move up to 2A only if they win state (5+points in '23+'24)

[BTF]

4 hours ago, slice60 said:

6A -> 5A: Cathedral will move down to 5A (1point in '23+'24)

5A -> 6A: Decatur Central will move up to 6A - won semistate (6+points in '23+'24)

4A -> 5A: New Palestine moves up to 5A only if they win state (5+points in '23+'24)

6A welcomes Decatur Central to the "sparting partners club.

5A 2026 potentially includes New Pal, Cathedral, and Snider. Looking forward to it already. 

[slice60]

Maybe this is addressed in new language with the rolling 2-year points.

Let's use FW Snider football as a hypothetical example. Due to the Success Factor, they have bumped up to 6A for the '24 & '25 seasons. They did not win a Sectional in '24 (0 points). Therefore, Snider will drop down to 5A in '26 even if they win a Regional in '25 (2 points total earned in '24+'25) as long as they don't win Semistate or State.

Let's say Snider wins a 6A Regional (2 points) in '25, drops down to 5A & then wins the '26 5A State Championship (4 points)-- would the IHSAA count this as 6 points earned in 2 years (even though it would be in 2 different classes) & then bump them up to 6A starting in '27? Or does a program automatically stay in a class for at least 2 years after it has been bumped up OR dropped down due to the Success Factor points?

[TheDoctor22]

28 minutes ago, slice60 said:

Maybe this is addressed in new language with the rolling 2-year points.

Let's use FW Snider football as a hypothetical example. Due to the Success Factor, they have bumped up to 6A for the '24 & '25 seasons. They did not win a Sectional in '24 (0 points). Therefore, Snider will drop down to 5A in '26 even if they win a Regional in '25 (2 points total earned in '24+'25) as long as they don't win Semistate or State.

Let's say Snider wins a 6A Regional (2 points) in '25, drops down to 5A & then wins the '26 5A State Championship (4 points)-- would the IHSAA count this as 6 points earned in 2 years (even though it would be in 2 different classes) & then bump them up to 6A starting in '27? Or does a program automatically stay in a class for at least 2 years after it has been bumped up OR dropped down due to the Success Factor points?

My understanding is teams that are bumped/dropped to a new class are in the new class for a minimum of two years, regardless of the points they accumulate. After year 2, the points earned (and natural enrollment) over those two years would dictate if they bump, stay, drop. So in your example, Snider would stay in 5A through the ‘27 cycle even if they won state in ‘26. 
 

Not 100% sure on that though.

Edited November 23, 2024 by TheDoctor22

[TigerFan20]

5 minutes ago, TheDoctor22 said:

My understanding is teams that are bumped/dropped to a new class are in the new class for a minimum of two years, regardless of the points they accumulate. After year 2, the points earned (and natural enrollment) over those two years would dictate if they bump, stay, drop. So in your example, Snider would stay in 5A through the ‘27 cycle even if they won state in ‘26. 
 

Not 100% sure on that though.

Yup, if a team is bumped up to a new class, they must stay in there for 2 years. Not sure about dropping down a class.

[LuersMom5]

On 11/15/2024 at 1:22 PM, cpg1970 said:

Unless you are a private school that can recruit.  I agree with you regarding public schools, who are forced to play the hand they are dealt.

Fort Wayne Community Schools has had "open enrollment" for decades.  So, in Fort Wayne, "the publics" DEFINITELY recruit. (As I personally heard a previous principal at FW Snider explicitly state.) 

 

[LuersMom5]

On 11/19/2024 at 2:57 PM, First_Backer_Inside said:

That's odd. Luers is usually middle of the pack 2A enrollment. They get success factored up to 3A and all of a sudden they have 3A enrollment. But it's so hard for these p/p's to keep their doors open. They can't control their school population. It's so hard to recruit kids to their school. Must just be a coincidence.

That previous bump up to 3A coincided with the beginning expansion of the Indiana School Choice (voucher) program, so their enrollment increased at that time.  It was coincidental.  (The size of the football team actually slightly decreased at that time.)

Edited November 23, 2024 by LuersMom5

[foxbat]

On 11/21/2024 at 8:46 AM, FastpacedO said:

No I agree with you. Private schools especially recruit every student that walks in their doors or else the doors won't stay open. I was just stating for some Public School wasn't even in the thought process from the day they were born.

There also are a whole multitude of reasons parents look to send their kids to P/P school including: Academics, student teacher ratio, religious classes, and yes even extra curriculars. Extra Curriculars don't have to be strictly Football, Basketball, Baseball. It can also be Band, Debate, Model UN, Chess Club. there is a lot. For example the largest P/P in Indiana Cathedral has 1,172 students. The sport with the largest roster would be Football and they probably roster 103 grades 10-12 and 60 to 70 Freshman (which is a big roster). However that is about 1,000 students that don't play football at all so it's not all football it is a lot of other things.

Sometimes things only get looked at in a vaccum with football, there is more than football at P/P and  Public schools.

I'm not sure it's an issue of recruiting.  When we moved to Lafayette, my wife and I had decided that we'd enroll the kids in Catholic school here.  I'd just returned to being a practicing Catholic and my wife was in the process of converting.  She was so taken with her faith journey, that she wanted the kids to have that base level of faith in, at least, their early education.  Both of my parents attended Catholic schools ... my mom got her college degree from a Catholic university and my dad attended Catholic U for a couple of years before leaving to join the Air Force.  Most of my parents siblings also attended Catholic schools.  My sister and I attended Catholic school until I was in 7th grade when we moved into an area without a Catholic school close by.  In essence, it really was the family "tradition" to attend Catholic school as opposed to being recruited to said schools.  With all of these items, we actually sought out the Catholic school system rather than being "recruited."  While there may be more "conscious" comparisons of Catholic schools to public schools in the determination of education, I think there are LOTS of families that fall into the same mold that we did in that it's just "the way" as opposed to a specific compare/contrast/recruit situation.  

[First_Backer_Inside]

4 hours ago, LuersMom5 said:

That previous bump up to 3A coincided with the beginning expansion of the Indiana School Choice (voucher) program, so their enrollment increased at that time.  It was coincidental.  (The size of the football team actually slightly decreased at that time.)

It always is "coincidental"

[PHJIrish]

7 hours ago, foxbat said:

I'm not sure it's an issue of recruiting.  When we moved to Lafayette, my wife and I had decided that we'd enroll the kids in Catholic school here.  I'd just returned to being a practicing Catholic and my wife was in the process of converting.  She was so taken with her faith journey, that she wanted the kids to have that base level of faith in, at least, their early education.  Both of my parents attended Catholic schools ... my mom got her college degree from a Catholic university and my dad attended Catholic U for a couple of years before leaving to join the Air Force.  Most of my parents siblings also attended Catholic schools.  My sister and I attended Catholic school until I was in 7th grade when we moved into an area without a Catholic school close by.  In essence, it really was the family "tradition" to attend Catholic school as opposed to being recruited to said schools.  With all of these items, we actually sought out the Catholic school system rather than being "recruited."  While there may be more "conscious" comparisons of Catholic schools to public schools in the determination of education, I think there are LOTS of families that fall into the same mold that we did in that it's just "the way" as opposed to a specific compare/contrast/recruit situation.  

Like!

[oldtimeqb]

Rather than rehash the same tired recruiting arguments...

The original post asked about Success factor.  

On 11/23/2024 at 12:07 AM, slice60 said:

 

I did not intend for my previous post to be a quote. That was solely a post from me.

So is this correct?

6A -> 5A: Cathedral will move down to 5A (1point in '23+'24)

5A -> 6A: Decatur Central will move up to 6A - won semistate & state (6+points in '23+'24)

4A -> 5A: New Palestine moves up to 5A WON state (5+points in '23+'24)

3A -> 4A: Heritage Hills will move up to 4A - won semistate & state  (6+points in '23+'24)

2A: Lafayette CC - stays up in 2A (3points in '23+'24)

1A -> 2A: North Judson stays 1A did not win state (5+points in '23+'24)

I think Providence will also move up to 2A based on enrollment.  

Any idea when new sectionals will come out?  At the next IHSAA meeting? 

[Daniel_Bragg]

10 minutes ago, oldtimeqb said:

Rather than rehash the same tired recruiting arguments...

The original post asked about Success factor.  

I think Providence will also move up to 2A based on enrollment.  

Any idea when new sectionals will come out?  At the next IHSAA meeting? 

Enrollment won't change this year, so Providence won't move.

New sectionals for schools moving on Success Factor, I would think, will be out soon.

[TigerFan20]

1 hour ago, oldtimeqb said:

Rather than rehash the same tired recruiting arguments...

The original post asked about Success factor.  

I think Providence will also move up to 2A based on enrollment.  

Any idea when new sectionals will come out?  At the next IHSAA meeting? 

New sectional realignments should be released in a week or 2. Last year’s sectionals came out around April 30th.

[Julio]

The next executive meeting for the IHSAA is May 5th and 6th.