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LCC is good, South Adams is good, It will be a good game. Excited to watch it.... Boom, back on track. Pulling for sectional 42 and Region 4 to be back in Lucas Oil next weekend.

After slogging through this discussion over the past several days I thought I would do a little digging and give myself more background on the topic (I know, weird). Admittedly, I am not an Indiana native, and over the past decade or so I've had to peruse my way through many-a websites, forums, almanacs, and more to try to keep pace with the ins, outs, abbreviations, and nicknames (I still can't read a STC thread on the EIAC to save my life)... let alone feel brave enough to post confidently in any PP-themed topic. So today I did what I do best: Look up a bunch of stuff, put it in a spreadsheet, and try to make sense of it. Some (most? all?) of it may not be completely relevant to the topic at hand, but I at least want to share the empirical data that I was able to glean out of my research. Frankly, it was very interesting to me and I'd hate for it to go go to waste for anyone who is like me... interested, but ignorant. I'm assume much of this has very likely been covered in bits and pieces all over this forum over the years, but I feel compelled to share this non-biased information (these are those fact-things people keep talking about) to those that might appreciate it and may not be aware of everything out of this particular set of data. This isn't a resolution, just information. To start I put a time frame on it, somewhat arbitrary, but hopefully enough to at least gather a representative sample size. So the past ten years of Indiana football, 2010-2019. I broke out all of the PP schools listed at the start of this thread, separated by current enrollment (no SF figured in, just enrollment for a base line), and then proceeded to populate the schools' post-season results. I used Almanac Sports (I can't thank this man enough for putting THAT thing together) to populate the spreadsheet, year by year, to see how well each of the schools did in any given season. I also tried to help myself understand how teams were beat, versus how far they went. For example, for 2015 Brebeuf I note "LS Chatard" so that it told me "Lost Sectional (to) Chatard" and I could at least see that, while they may have been knocked out early, it was by the eventual State Champs. It has pretty colors, all that jazz. Someone's probably done this before, but hey, I had free time and a beer or two in the fridge. Anyway, what I was most surprised to find (and maybe/likely not a shock to many/most) was the 2010-2012 back-to-back-to-back State Championships from 1A LCC, 2A Luers, 3A Chatard, and 4A Cathedral. Not being from here, remember, I have little to no background on the history of football in the state, so this was a bit of a shocker. I mean, I've known they were good in stretches and all that. But this? I'd be interested to dig deeper on these dynasties going back another decade, but I'm not that big of a masochist. Maybe. We'll see. To put a finer point on it, 12 of the 15 State Championship games (the other three being won by the 5A schools of Fishers, Carmel, and Lawrence Central in that span) were by four teams. That's 80% for those keeping track at home. Now, it looks like there are about 20 PP schools right now and about 300 public schools (I know, some ebb and flow with schools over the decade, but bear with me for the sake of keeping things mathematically easy from 2010 to 2019). That means ~6% of the teams are PP and ~94% public. Out of that whole 100% (320 schools), 1.25% of the teams in Indiana won 80% of the football State Championships in that period. OR, if you take the 5A out of the equation since they were still playing by class... 1.25% of the teams in Indiana won 100% of the championships they were able to play for. That blows my mind. I'm not passing judgement here, I'm looking at this very objectively... with a very blown mind. Not to mention the State Runner Up teams... in the 1A-4A sample, that's 19 PP teams playing for 12 championships... only five public schools were even in the mix. Crazy. So then comes 2013 and all the "fixes" (equalizers?) that were brought to the table. To be fair, it did look to shake things up on the spreadsheet. Maybe not enough if you're in one camp, maybe too much if you're in another camp. No camp has said it has been perfect, to the best of my knowledge, and that's not what brought me here anyway. I just wanted some data and background. In the past seven years 1A has seen five different champs (four of them public); but LCC still added two more trophies after a short stint in 2A. 2A has seen five new champs, four of them public, and none of them Luers again. Ritter was able to bring home two in Leurs' absence. 3A has had three public schools win in the past seven years, but Chatard keeps doing Chatard things (two more 3A trophies), Memorial added one, Andrean added one. In 4A there have been six different champs in the past seven years, three of them public. Dwenger added two to the case, Roncalli added one, and Memorial added one. 5A has seen stints from Roncalli, Cathedral (back-to-back 5A champs), and Dwenger, but otherwise has had four public schools share the other five trophies. 6A had a two year stint from Cathedral, and doing pretty well at it. No hardware. Yet. In the first sample (2010-2012) the PPs make up 80% of all State Championship winners, 63% of all SSC winners, 42% of all RC winners, and 23% of all Sectionals Champs. Since 2013, PPs now make up 33% of all State Champs, 25% of all SSC, 23% of all RC, and 18% of all Sectional Champs. The SF has certainly changed the landscape at the very top level, but there are still years where PPs (6% of the schools) bring home 50% of the State Championships (three times in seven years, to be exact). But what I find interesting is that the sectional champion piece of the pie really hasn't budged much (was 23% in 2010-2012 to 18% in 2013-2019). The rest of the hardware take home, by round, has more than halved, but sectionals are still somewhat similar. I can't quite wrap my head around what to infer from that yet. Perhaps sectional alignments and SF bumps just let another PP fill the void where they normally have trouble getting that Sectional win. Swap a great PP for another really good PP, so to speak. Always the bridesmaid, never the bride... until SF. Frankly, there is quite a bit on the spreadsheet with SF points, etc. that made it very interesting for me, but I don't know that muddying the waters further at this point with more numbers really advances the conversation. Much of it probably covered elsewhere at some point in the past, but I did enjoy working through each team's history, line by line, to bring myself a little more reference to these threads. Again, this isn't an argument one way or the other, but more of a "Hey, I was today year's old when I learned this...". Nor is it an exhaustive work... I could have certainly missed some things since I didn't proof anything, plus I'm no statistician in the mathematical sense. I think it is fairly accurate, but don't go citing me in your thesis any time soon. TL;DR version... PPs are good at football, collectively. SF dampened the top end of PP state champ dynasties. Sometimes.

I thought this was about LCC and South Adams. I swear to God I did!

How rare is it that 2 interim coaches meet at any point during the season, let alone this late in the playoffs? Coach Lyons taking over at Covenant Christian after week 4 of the season. Coach Nance filling in filling in for a season until they find a permanent replacement at West Washington. Very unique story heading into Friday's game.

Just rediculous. You have been at this 20 years. GIVE. IT. UP. SF works. Roncalli has one State Championship in past 15 years. SF works. You might get 5% support in the IHSAA to support a 2 bump up in class. Want to know why? SF Works. It is enjoyable to come back on here every couple of years and see the calories you burn on this nonsense. Appreciate the entertainment. When my Grandsons who are two years old are playing for Roncalli and Guerin 12 years from now, I hope I can come back on here and get a couple of minutes more of enjoyment because I know you will still be at it!

Hope you all watched the press conference. This is SO MUCH MORE than the democrats ballot stuffing (which is fraud in and of itself). Dominion. Smartmatic. Cuba. Venezuela. Maduro. Chavez. Clinton Foundation. George Soros. They have it all. Military PRECISSION! President Trump tried to tell everyone. Some just didn't listen. This isn't another 4 year election. Watch the headlines tomorrow. Should be MAJOR! If not, you can see for yourself, the corruption.

This definitely going to be a great game. As a former player at SA, I’m happy the Starfires played Southwood last week. SW was a very fast and athletic team and could pass very effectively. LCC may have issues with SA’s defensive line. Miller, Gorney, Gilbert can all rush the passer with strength and speed. Plattner, Kahn, and Summersett are very good LBs. SA is definitely not your typical 1A team as far as size and talent go. Arnold at QB 6-3 210, Miller at TE/DE 6-4 240, Stutzman and Wanner both 6-2 180. If Miller or Arnold played at a larger school, they would be getting Div 1 offers. Can’t wait to watch tomorrow night. Hopefully SA can pull this one off!

I swear to God!

Well you told me we would be playing "Lutherans or Putnams" so I hope your kiss of death continues. I gotta go

After their last 2 wins I have to go with Covenant Christians.

Don’t forget to “thank the lord because without him, none of this would be possible.”

Other two teams that had to withdraw were Traders Point Christian & McCutcheon. Lafayette Central Catholic and Zionsville advanced, respectively.

Dude, all I'm saying is I didn't watch the game so I can't tell you if it did or did not happen. I'm just making point that I'm surprised no Dwenger folks have mentioned if it did happen. But then again, maybe it did happen but no one knew that is a rule. I didn't.

I’ve been filled in. After way too many years here the tea leaves usually tell the story. Didn’t realize they were buds, though.

His wife is an AC grad so we know who runs his household! 😄

Nah I don’t care. She would never say go Stars either. Lol And my in-laws still call SA people “Cheesers” 🤦🏻‍♂️

More than I am.

NOT to belabor the Dwenger/Zionsville game again....BUT? Wasn't there a "numbering exception" violation on the 3rd down FG that won the game that no one seems to have brought up? Clearly #90 is lined up as a guard on the FG try....obviously not a # between 50-79.... And that is far beyond the judgement call on the DPI a few moments earlier...

That would be difficult as I've seen the Irish play in more than 150 different venues. I could probably give a short list if I have time to think it over. Anywhere I have seen good high school football is a good venue though!

@TheStatGuy the Tories here are screaming 'cause they lost. What a bunch of snowflakes!

I don't disagree with your conclusion (that SF dampened the top end of PP . . .), but, your sample (2010-2012) is way too small. In the 20 years prior to 2010 in Classes 1A - 4A, PP's won 46% of the state championships and 38% of the semi-state championships. That is much different than the outcomes in 2010 - 2012 and much more closely resembles the long term reality of Indiana high school football. Granted those are still high percentages for such a small group of schools, but, nowhere close to 100% and 80% from 2010 - 2012. I am of the opinion that that was a unique time period in the history of PP football with only a few individual players (Jaylon Smith, the Martin brothers, and the Anthrop brothers, for instance) contributing significantly to those percentages. In fact, one could pick a different 3 year period and end up with a much different perspective. For example, 2004 - 2006 produced public school state champions 66% of the time and semi-state champions 66% of the time (Classes 1A - 4A). In other words, from 2004 - 2006, PPs only won 33% of the state championships and 33% of the semi-state championships in Classes 1A - 4A. Had you chosen that 3 year period instead you may have come to the conclusion that the SF actually helped PPs win more than they had previously not less. Alas, that is not true, but, when undertaking a data driven analysis, which data sample one selects for comparison purposes is important. Generally speaking, the larger the sample size the better. With respect to sectional championships, I suspect that of the different PPs who won those regional, semi-state, and state championships, many were in the same sectional. I would guess that the vast majority of sectionals in Classes 1A - 4A do not have any PPs in them and the ones that do probably have multiple PPs in them. Notwithstanding the (very mild) constructive feedback, I appreciate someone bringing a data focused analysis to the discussion. Your opinion was very well written and, as I mentioned above, I think you arrived at the correct conclusion.

DT will tell you that conference realignment is just a matter of time. He is right in that the profile of Carmel and CG fits in the HCC much more so than the MIC and Covid has only widened the gap. That is yet another reason why BD's upset of Carmel was such a surprise to me (kudos to the posters on here who called it back in August). I know folks get sick and tired of me going back to the same thing, but Carmel (10 percent) and (CG 21 percent) have little in common with the remaining MIC schools other than enrollment. As a matter of fact, if you average the free/reduced numbers of the remaining 5 townships that make up the conference, you get an average of 66 percent. People say it doesn't matter but there is more to life than football. Carmel is bored and will eventually run out of room and start using conference championship trophies as door stops to their classrooms. They are cleaning house in the non-revenue sports and have won the "All-MIC" award every year of its existence. Take the free/reduced numbers of the HCC schools: Zionsville - 5 percent HSE/Fishers - 15 percent Westfield - 17 percent Noblesville - 23 percent Brownsburg - 25 percent Avon - 33 percent Franklin Township - 40 percent FC is in no man's land in the HCC and will never compete in more than 2-3 sports. They are growing, but not as fast as Westfield. Maybe an FC/Avon swap for Carmel/CG is in the future?

"... and if they're down by more than 10 they've GOTTA pass. State Law! I swear to God it is man! Hey Shut the hell up RAAANDY! I gotta go." Thats what I heard.

Ok, so the location Frankfort,became a hub for the Mexican population know for hiring Hispanics. Word got out I guess for the new arrivals. Thanks for the backround.

Jesus Latin Grill & Tequila Bar would be a good choice too. Same owners as Evil Czech & Corndance Tavern. Plus, it's maybe a mile away from Marian HS.

They lost a ton. Polk, Wright, and Michalski are the headliners. They lost Hatfield, Rodgers, and Hyatt on their O-line. That’s a lot of size. They lost Kaleb Quenichet their #1 WR that was injured. Caleb Slaughter their TE/MLB. A lot on defense. Colin Cummins. Trace Richards. Andrew Spurgeon. Trent Allen. Luke Medlock. Blake Zehnder. A few other depth guys. That’s the bad news. The Good news is, they have some guys back I like. Zac Hutslar WR/S. Brandon Fessel OL. Jake Hausz WR. Eli Branham WR/S. Gavin Harvey DE. Max Grangier K. Jaxon Farley WR/DB. Walker Jacobi P/DL. QB position is intriguing. I’m not a coach on their staff so I can’t answer any QB battle situations, but they have a kid that will be a Sophomore named Tristan Robertson that they are EXTREMELY high on. The QBs at Highland Hills are pretty well regarded too. FC should be in good shape at QB. Not real sure about RB? They have a JR named Jace Robinson. I would say he should be in the mix. Not sure what’s coming up from JV? I’ve heard good things about what they have coming up but obviously you can’t just graduate a class like this and bounce back easily. Some programs do. Not sure if FC is there yet? Coach Bragg and his staff will continue to build as they have been doing.

Gotta love the Kaiju reference.

Or, in the case of 1A public and private adversaries LCC and Pioneer it will look like Godzilla and Rodan in Kyoto instead of Tokyo as they will both, likely, have an opportunity to meet again in 2A via SF.

I see another Defensive battle in the works this week. In the end, Mater Dei finds a way to make WEBO wobble just enough to eke out 13 - 7 victory. 😸 Safe travels to everyone heading out to a Semi-state game this wknd.

They wanted to take away your speed advantage.

The LCC QB is good when you give him time and let him stand in the pocket. He seemed to be less effective with pressure or when he had to move around. SA has to be careful just pinning their ears back or CC will beat them with short passes or screens. SA gave up a lot of yards agains Southwood, but so did LCC against Winamac. This game could very well be decided by who has the ball last.

We have all seen it...but nice job reminding us of some interesting statistics! This stands out to me a bit. I had not looked at it this way. Before SF PPs (6% of our schools) made up 80% of State Championship winners. After SF PPs (6% of our schools) make up 33% of all State Champion winners. Semi-State drop off from 63% to 25% is huge as well.

No. My father moved away from Ft. Wayne after HS for work. My parents (mother is from NWI) settled in Schererville where my sister and I were raised. My dad passed away in February 2012. New Haven will always have a fan with me. ***IMSC, my dad's mom and dad had a house on Paulding Road.

I'll put the MIC up against any conference in Indiana. You put up your best eight teams and let's see who wins the matchups.

I’m an ND fan and that was funny.

2014 Snider 32, Westfield 24 2015 Snider 64, New Pal 61 2016 Westfield 23, Snider 17 (nice come from behind win for the Shamrocks) 2017 Carmel 22, Snider 21 (nice come from behind win for the Greyhounds) 2018 Carmel 20, Snider 6 Five games in the past seven years.............all pretty respectable.

Hi Jack job, I guess.

In this area, I think that Jeff is likely to be passed up in enrollment by 5A Harrison. In driving my son to practice, we pass by a new subdivision that's currently being grated and divided. Building will probably start soon. A colleague of mine tells me that on the other side of the intersection where Battleground Middle School sits diagonal from Harrison's campus is another subdivision going it. I think he said that it's estimated that there will be about 300 new households moving into that area. Harrison's currently just about 85 kids behind Jeff. You only need about 28% of those household to have a high school student in them to have Harrison catch Jeff and that doesn't account for any other growth. Harrison's just starting to find their flex in 5A. My son's on the freshman squad and they said this is the largest freshman squad in the school's history. The freshman dropped their game with Westfield by just a touchdown this season spanked Jeff by three TDs. Unfortunately, Harrison may end up in the same boat with Jeff ... too big for 5A, not enough horses to thrive there just yet. Given what's in 6A and the top of 5A, I don't know if there's enough to "push Jeff down" into 5A.

I just don’t see how they can at this point. They simply do not have the athletes to contend in 6a in the postseason. Last year was the best team they’ve fielded in a long, long time and they ran into a tough Merrillville team. They’ve had athletes for as long as I can remember but I think they really lack size across the board on the O-line/LB’s/DB’s every single year. I think they are at that 29-31st spot in enrollment for 6a so they really need some good fortune to get bumped down to 5a. And they’ve had competitive game against some of the big dogs across the state recently (Carmel, Westfield, Merrillville) and Shanley is doing about as well as a coach can do. He’s creative with his play calling and installs the confidence in his guys that they can beat anyone. I thought Jeff was solid this year until they played Merrillville and then i realized how much of a mismatch it really was. And Merrillville is not much bigger in enrollment than Jeff if I’m correct. it’s gonna take a real special group of kids for them to do anything big in 6a and that’s not a knock on them. They’re always gonna have to play a Carmel, a Merrillville, a Westfield, maybe even a Homestead and some of the schools up there someday in sectionals and that will always be a daunting task. A 5A move for them would be tremendous. They’ve taken down Westfield and Noblesville in recent years, stick them in that sectional with Zionsville and give Kokomo the boot and you’ve got a tremendous matchup every year.

LOL Ya think? They are looking really tough. No messing around. The defense has been the difference.

Unfortunately, I’m sure the resolution on your screen is not good enough for you to see that right now I am playing the world’s tiniest violin 🎻.

Coach Gaddis obviously has had an amazing career and the victories speak for themself. I will remember Coach Gaddis as one of the greatest ambassadors for the sport of football. He is a leader amongst coaches. What he has done for the IFCA and the coaching fraternity will have an impact that lasts forever. For our staff at West Washington, he graciously hosted us for an afternoon to talk about all things football. We shared film and he shared film with us. He helped us install some of the fundamental elements of the offense that we have run for the past 4 seasons. I will always be grateful for how much he mentored other coaches and for his leadership in the IFCA and Region 10.

Cheaper than the ATM fee at Connie's, right @StinkTownClown?

You're going to make me go to the dictionary this early.😁

Artificial intelligence is much easier to develop than artificial malice. 😀

I don’t buy that sectional assignments are too difficult to accomplish every year. Heck, states that have a qualifier system re-do the entire tournament each year. It’s 2020. I’m sure I could find a computer science or math major that could write an algorithm to minimize travel distances in 8 team clusters. An algorithm wouldn’t spit out beauties like Sectional 28 though. That’s why it will never happen.

TO MAKE @Muda69 HAPPY, SINCE THERE IS ALWAYS SOMETHING WRONG FOR HIM. 2 Point Games Westfield @ Merrillville Mater Dei @ Western Boone 3 Point Games Valpo @ Zionsville Marion @ Hobart Mooresville @ Roncalli Danville @ Southridge Pioneer @ Luers South Adams @ LCC Covenant Christian @ West Washington

Its getting worse every year, but the cycle can trend up, being the 2nd largest populous urban area in the state, and hopefully give the central Indiana schools some competition.

Here's what my data shows: Week by week Week 1: net -34 games (lost 50, gained 16) Week 2: net -25 games (lost 49, gained 24) Week 3: net -17 games (lost 30, gained 13) Week 4: net -11 games (lost 24, gained 13) Week 5: net -13 games (lost 19, gained 6) Week 6: net -14 games (lost 22, gained 😎 Week 7: net -8 games (lost 22, gained 14) Week 8: net -14 games (lost 26, gained 12) Week 9: net -20 games (lost 26, gained 6) Sectional 1R: net -8 games (lost 8, gained 0) Sectional SF: net -7 games (lost 7, gained 0) Sectional CH: net -3 games (lost 3, gained 0) Regional CH: net 0 games (lost 0, gained 0) Total: net -174 games (lost 286; gained 112)